epeon

Opportunities in the Wind Energy Value Chain

this generation's ethanol

Why I'm Long Uranium and Nuclear / Power Engineering

Your analysis is way too simple. First, the majority of existing power plants were built in the 70s and early 80s with 30 to 40 year old licenses. Under current law, they are supposed to be shutdown over the next decade. So, if new plants are built, it just means that they would replace existing plants.

Secondly, in the US there are no real plants under construction. Rather, you have plants that have a permit to be designed. This is a big difference. They are going for permits to construct but that is four to five years away if they are successful.

Thirdly, your analysis only works if current plants get an extension on their current life (possible, some have gotten that in the past and some have not) and the plants being designed are actually converted into construction. But, construction is five years away and having one built is, at least, four years after that (assuming some judge doesn't issue an injunction as they have in the past).

My bottomline, Uranium is way too early now.

ABB: Switzerland's Slumbering Giant

I used to work for ABB and I think you paint a way too rosy picture for ABB. First, it is a huge company that was created mostly by acquisition. As a huge company it is very inefficient as most are. However, it has the added problem of all of these divisions that don't plug and play together. All of these divisions have different cultures, different accounting systems, and different marketing approaches. There is really no synergy from the various parts. ABB finds itself being an also ran in many businessess. Not number 1 or number 2, but maybe number 5.

Secondly, the managers tend to be Europeans who are appointed to head divisions that they have no clue about. So, you people who grew up in robots running automation divisions, or marketing people running a manufacturing operation. ABB is just full of too many people with the wrong skillsets in the wrong places.

So, it is not that ABB is a bad company, it isn't. Its just not particularly good.

How Carbon Caps Will Affect Utilities Sector

Bet on China and India. They don't do the politically correct power thing so their energy will be much cheaper then the US. This will accelerate the shift of energy intensive industries from the US to them. So, to make money, bet on China and India if cap and trade becomes a reality.