epeon

Why I'm Long Uranium and Nuclear / Power Engineering

Your analysis is way too simple. First, the majority of existing power plants were built in the 70s and early 80s with 30 to 40 year old licenses. Under current law, they are supposed to be shutdown over the next decade. So, if new plants are built, it just means that they would replace existing plants.

Secondly, in the US there are no real plants under construction. Rather, you have plants that have a permit to be designed. This is a big difference. They are going for permits to construct but that is four to five years away if they are successful.

Thirdly, your analysis only works if current plants get an extension on their current life (possible, some have gotten that in the past and some have not) and the plants being designed are actually converted into construction. But, construction is five years away and having one built is, at least, four years after that (assuming some judge doesn't issue an injunction as they have in the past).

My bottomline, Uranium is way too early now.