epeon

Tiber Oilfield Spells Major Upside for Prices

Nothing in your article presents anything I disagree with. Oil prices are, inevitably, going up. It is only a matter of when. This is one reason I like BP very much.

Why Invest in Oil Over Alternative Energy

First, the amortized cost of windpower is currently $.18/kwhr. To put that in perspective, coal is on the order of $.03 to $.05, natural gas is $.07 to $.09. so, using windpower will, at least , double your electric bill.

Secondly, a carbon tax will favor, most of all, nuclear power. Not a bad outcome, but that is what it is.

Crude Oil Demand and the Quick Recovery Hoax

First, the oil majors did not have losses. What they had was a reduction in their earnings. That was pretty inevitable given that oil prices peaked last year. Secondly, as I write this, the price of crude has topped $70/bbl. The oil majors will do fine on that price.

What you do not understand, it seems to me, is that even if deman is flat, there is a 3 to 5% reduction in supply every year via depletion. That is the reason why this industry spends a $1 trillion/year to keep supply flat and not declining. However, that spending has been cut. Which means that in a few years supply willl drop off the table. At that time, we will get another spike.

Refiners Lose Out in Cap & Trade System

The refiners do not really loose out. They will simply have to include the cost of the permits in the cost of their product. In the end, the consumer will loose out.

The only way that refiners may loose out is that the higher prices will reduce demand or the higher prices will cause the US to import refined products because they are cheaper. If the latter happens, then the US will loose jobs.

The Bear Case for ConocoPhillips

You miss the big point, I think. COP when it bought burrlington has bet big on natural gas prices. Natural gas prices have risen no where near as much as oil. Secondly, the "cap and trade" legislation is going to hurt refining in the US. So, these are two big reasons to dislike COP versus say Shell or BP. I like BP because much of its refining base is overseas and its income is not tied as much to natural gas.

Oil: Is It a Bullish Rally or a Sucker's Rally?

Estimating crude prices is a "black" art which I certainly do not know. However, with the steady effects of oil depletion (estimated at a 5% drop per year in crude production capacity) combined with the virtual shutdown of bring on new capacity that the drop in crude engineered, I believe that crude will inevitably go higher. T. Boone Pickens has argued that crude will be $75/bbl by the end of the year. I have no reason to quibble.

Is There Enough Natural Gas?

The whole concept of this article is terribly wrong. It is not the government's job to determine how energy is developed and used by our society. Or, is that clause in the constitution one I have forgotten about?

There are lots of sources of energy. The marketplace makes these decisions. If natural gas is truly cheaper then coal then people will build natural gas fired boilers. If we have learned nothing in the last century we have learned at least this: the market does a far better job of allocating resources and picking technology then does a central government bueracract. This is true whether the bueracrat is in Moscow or Washington, DC.

The government will continue to back things like shale oil, ethanol, windmills, solar cells, etc. All of these are sinks for taxpayer money. And, when they are no longer trendy, they will be shut down one by one.

American Consumers Aren't Spending, Or Borrowing

The answer is that the government wants to reflate the economy. And, guess what, that pushes people into higher tax brackets and funding more government. Oooooooo, you think a democrat can resist this?

The Slippery Slope of Declining Petrochemical Demand

Market economics. You raise prices, demand goes down. The worst part for Opec is that the west is making structural changes that will be irreversible. In the past, Americans switched to smaller cars which reduced demand. And, when oil went down, everybody bought bigger cars. Now, people are moving to hybrids. Soon, people will go to plug in hybrids. People have gotten burned enough that they do not want to take the risk of being vulnerable to oil prices. Also, governments don't want to be in that position either. So, western governments will subsidize plug-ins which will make a shift to electricity. This will displace oil with lower cost fuels. And, once this starts, it will be irreversible.

The Bull Case for Big Oil

I agree with the basic thesis that oil is going to go higher. However, COP has a very high percentage of its business from natural gas. And, frankly, I am not so bullish on natural gas. I, therefore, do not like COP. A different major would be a better choice for me (I own BP, for example).

Cramer's Mad Money - In the Treehouse (3/10/09)

Here is my problem, most of my money is in my self-directed IRA. I cannot write shorts directly. Short ETFs are a good vehicle for me to short the market in that format. I have used them to good effect. Why should I not have this tool available to me? The big boys certainly can and do short. All ETFs do is allow the little boys to take advantage of the same strategy.

The Cheap Gas Dilemma

Any cutback on oil projects now, just means that down the road we will have a big spike in crude. I would buy oil and wait. You will be handsomely rewarded for doing so.

Why "Drill, Baby, Drill!" Does Not Translate Into Effective National Energy Policy

Of course, drilling for oil offshore will not solve America's energy problems. We will, according to most of the studies I read, get about 1 million bbl/day. But, it is a good first step and I would sure rather have that $100 million/day flowing to US companies.

In the longrun we will be moving to electric cars. We really don't need an energy plan by the government. First, five year plans almost always don't work. Secondly, the last government energy plan was based on ethanol. We know how that worked.

The market is moving us away from oil as long as oil is at or above $100/bbl. It is going to happen

Is Valero a Better Buy than Exxon Mobil?

I just don't see the future in the refiners. The volume of refined oil is going to decline as the consumer reduces his use of it. This is happening now and will accelerate over the next years as people shift to smaller cars and then, eventually, to elecric hybrids or pure electrics. Volume going down is death for this business.