upgrayed

Harry Dent: India a Better Long-Term Bet than China

Dent has some valid macro observations with regards to demographic trends or election cycles impacting economic performance. The problem is when he tries to extrapolate asset prices by overlaying it all in a single package. Still worth reading though.

Another Big Oil Drawdown

So what are you selling?


On Sep 16 07:58 PM WMD wrote:

> JP MORGAN WENT BUST!!! INSTABLOG
>
> What JP Morgan have in common with the rest of the banking industry?
>
> Nothing.
> Oh, really it's not that simple, in the end JP is another big bank
> with the same problems just as small banks. It takes deposits, lends
> money, leverages itself too much, offers credit cards, custody and
> sits on a throne of derivative dribble. In fact already 100 banks
> went bust and every day adds another run on a bank. FDIC have no
> money to rescue this banks already and by our estimates and contacts,
> we have learned that FDIC list of banks that they know will be next
> to go bust, is 9000 banks.
> Now think what will happen with your bank deposits like CD's or money
> market, when in this FDIC report we read about FDIC recommends Fed
> and Treasury to work on a plan, where it will be legal by the government
> to confiscate all your money so government can pay back debt obligations
> and renew financial system. All stocks and other holdings held in
> a brokerage, IRA or bank account will be canceled as well. Only shareholders
> of stocks that hold shares through a foreign banks will be honored,
> let's say you have IBM shares with CSFB in Switzerland, then it's
> OK, but if you have same shares with US bank, then it will be canceled.
> The problem is that investments held with banks and brokers are insured
> up to $500,000 by SIPC, $100,000 in cash the rest is negotiable insurance.
>
> Private insurance by a broker is $25,000,000 per equity/trading account
> but this scheme is already bust since 2007.
> From today the rate of failures will be faster, today already CIB
> Marine Bancshares, Inc. a bank holding company cibmarine.com/ went
> bust with it's portfolio of banks marinebank.com/ cibbank.com/ marinebankfsb.com/
> and more.
>
> Only our customers will escape this biggest market trap in history,
> it's too late to help you.

Interview: Economist Michael Pento Finds the Fed 'Completely Unnecessary'

We have more immediate bubbles than treasuries such as oil and financial stocks.

Will Chimerica's Demise Take Down Global Economy?

The Chinese extracted one sided deals from companies eager to penetrate their market at any cost over the decades with most of those agreements ending in heartache and stolen ip for the Americans. This trade conflict could spiral out of control but China is at a lot more risk than we are. So this could be clever gamesmanship on our part, we give them a taste of their own medicine and extract favorable terms in other areas of negotiation.

U.S. vs. China: Has Trade War Begun?

This is the worst analysis I've ever seen. Just a simple minded paranoid rant. If you are going to tackle a subject as big as this, you need a 1000 page volume with some actual evidence, not just your opinion on some dumb little blog post.

Google: How One Wedding Video Shows YouTube's Potential

God please give me back that 3 minutes of my life.

Why This Rally Will Continue

If you keep delivering the same message you will eventually be right.

On Aug 13 09:36 AM ain't no fortunate son wrote:

> Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs go to slaughter.
>
> If it were me, I'd be grateful for the free cash the past few months
> and looking for a fast trip out of Dodge before this "sluggish recovery"
> turns into a death spiral under the foreclosure tsunami (great numbers
> in July, eh, and they haven't even really started with the Option
> Arm and Alt A resets/recasts), CRE meltdown ("extend and pretend"
> those loans guys while the the tenants in your properties disappear
> into the night), and unemployment nightmare that is still unfolding
> (one may wish to consider that continuing claims is less relevant
> here than claims that have run out - those people who ran out of
> benefits still exist, capiche?).
>
> Just because you sprinkle a little pixie dust around and click your
> heels three times, doesn't mean that trees grow endlessly to the
> skies. Stocks are priced for perfection here... and until the banks
> clear a couple or three trillion in utter and intentionally mis-priced
> crap off their books, perfection is a long ways off.

'Green Shoots' Are a Mirage: Economy Will Deteriorate Further

Here's an anectodal piece of data. My company laid off ~20% , the remaining workforce picked up all the slack and the organization reconfigured itself to operate more efficiently. Meanwhile we all took a 10% 'temporary' pay cut and bonuses, previously at around 15% are mostly gone. And I haven't seen anyone quit as a result of this. I don't like it but how can this not bode well for future competitiveness?

The Market Bubble Is About to Pop

You've been calling for this rally to pop for months now. I guess if you keep mindlessly parroting the same statement you'll eventually be right. And then take credit for your brilliant foresight.

Popular Mechanics Gets It Wrong on Buick Hybrid

The execution may not be stellar but I don't see why the Volt is a bad idea. Only running the gas engine to charge the battery means that it is always running at the rpms that create peak efficiency. That idea seems to make alot of sense. Whether hybrids are a cost effective alternative at all is whole other debate.

<One thing that PM got right in the otherwise poorly written and researched article: The Buick hybrid proves that "Today's announcement reveals that GM is looking beyond the Volt."

This is because the Volt is not a very good idea in the first place.>

The New Highs: Will S&P Keep This Upward Trajectory?

Prices would appear to be ahead of themselves but I wouldn't call it a bubble in the sense that the enthusiasm for stocks is widespread. To me, hearing my brother in law or a cab driver want to talk stocks with me would signal a bubble.


On Aug 07 04:20 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> Yikes!! Welcome to the new bubble. In four months we have gone from
> 35% below the 200 day moving average to 15% above. It turns out that
> 1,000 in the S&amp;P 500 is 38.2% recovery of the fall from the2007
> peak, a great Fibonacci number. DeMark indicators are showing that
> buying power is getting exhausted. Daily sentiment indicators are
> 88%bullish. RSI’s and oscillators are over extended. Every day the
> buyers show up, marching in lockstep with military precision, to
> give us our needed spike up at the close to keep the rally alive
> on the charts one more day. Worst of all, I am getting deluged with
> emails from subscribers who, having stayed out all year, are asking
> if they should start buying now, and buying everything. All of this,
> and we still have the second half of the “W” to discount. If the
> American stock market was the only issue, I wouldn’t really care,
> since most of my longs are overseas. But if the US rolls over like
> the Bismarck, emerging markets,foreign currencies, commodities, the
> energies, and junk bonds will be dragged down with it, because everything
> is so interlinked these days.There will be no place to hide. I think
> the glass half full crowd is coming to the end of their run, so I
> would urge investors to pare down some risk. If your friends stay
> in, and they make a ton of money,that’s fine. Just let them buy the
> next round of drinks.

Morgan Stanley Sees V-Shaped Recovery: I See W-Shaped Recession

"Morgan Stanley Sees V-Shaped Recovery: I See W-Shaped Recession" I have no problem with the headline, just replace the word "See" with "am Guessing" and you will be all set.

Dave's Top 10 Reasons This Recession Will Last Forever

I innovate every day in my job, just because you are useless don't project that onto everyone else.

Dow Target 6,617, October 25, 2009: Here Is Why

Of course I'll be holding my breath for a couple of days as well. But to overlay these charts and and say one predicts the other is completely ridiculous. BTW those exact quotes are also cited on the website bearmarketcomparison.com


On Aug 05 02:39 PM Larry House wrote:

> Whatever the market does, it won't be predictable. It is just not
> possible to put two charts together and say this is what is going
> to happen and when. Has the market taught us nothing?

Why Another Stock Market Collapse Could Be Imminent

I bet you'd be miserable if the economy did improve.