John Petersen's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/227454/comments http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20121222 20121222
http://seekingalpha.co...

(note the first comment on the article)

Cobalt, on the other hand, is incredibly constrained, one of the most useful technology metals on the planet and a key metal for all lithium ion chemistries except iron phosphate and titanates.]]> Tue, 18 Jun 2013 18:52:56 -0400
http://seekingalpha.co...

(note the first comment on the article)

Cobalt, on the other hand, is incredibly constrained, one of the most useful technology metals on the planet and a key metal for all lithium ion chemistries except iron phosphate and titanates.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20119622 20119622 Tue, 18 Jun 2013 18:04:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20116232 20116232 Tue, 18 Jun 2013 16:46:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/307513/comments?source=feed#comment-20111562 20111562 Tue, 18 Jun 2013 15:19:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1454631/comments?source=feed#comment-20104182 20104182 Tue, 18 Jun 2013 12:49:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20098842 20098842 Tue, 18 Jun 2013 11:01:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20090852 20090852
Unless I'm mistaken, Axion was the only named party on the SBIR Phase I Application. Unless I'm reading the 10-Q wrong, a named first tier partner has joined Axion in the Phase II Application in a supporting role. So once again, we have a reasonable shot at a DOE announcement that Axion is working closely with a first tier automotive systems developer that Axion has never mentioned in its public disclosures.]]> Tue, 18 Jun 2013 07:53:47 -0400
Unless I'm mistaken, Axion was the only named party on the SBIR Phase I Application. Unless I'm reading the 10-Q wrong, a named first tier partner has joined Axion in the Phase II Application in a supporting role. So once again, we have a reasonable shot at a DOE announcement that Axion is working closely with a first tier automotive systems developer that Axion has never mentioned in its public disclosures.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20090082 20090082 Tue, 18 Jun 2013 07:24:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1454631/comments?source=feed#comment-20089212 20089212 Tue, 18 Jun 2013 06:17:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20089112 20089112
Unfortunately the OEMs are the ones who write the rules on testing and they're more than a bit finicky when a $500 component decides whether their $50,000 product is an automobile or a planter box. The process takes the time it takes and there's nothing you, me or Axion can do about that reality. I don't like the excruciating amount of time devoted to testing, but I know there's nothing I can do about it.]]> Tue, 18 Jun 2013 06:09:51 -0400
Unfortunately the OEMs are the ones who write the rules on testing and they're more than a bit finicky when a $500 component decides whether their $50,000 product is an automobile or a planter box. The process takes the time it takes and there's nothing you, me or Axion can do about that reality. I don't like the excruciating amount of time devoted to testing, but I know there's nothing I can do about it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20088422 20088422
OEMs are fond of multi-year testing programs before they adopt a technology for their product lines. End users who are scrambling to reduce their single biggest operating expense and see no significant cost difference between a conventional rebuild and an ePower rebuild are more willing to make rapid implementation decisions based on their economics and experience.]]> Tue, 18 Jun 2013 04:59:48 -0400
OEMs are fond of multi-year testing programs before they adopt a technology for their product lines. End users who are scrambling to reduce their single biggest operating expense and see no significant cost difference between a conventional rebuild and an ePower rebuild are more willing to make rapid implementation decisions based on their economics and experience.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20078602 20078602 Mon, 17 Jun 2013 20:07:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20078122 20078122
In my mind there are two things that would significantly bolster the market's perception of the likelihood of an automotive win. The first would be production partnerships with one or more first tier battery manufacturers. The second would be a disclosed development partnership with a first tier automotive systems manufacturer like Bosch or Valeo.

While I don't feel comfortable assessing the timing of the former, the latter already exists behind the veil of an NDA and will become public knowledge if the DOE makes a favorable decision on the Phase II SBIR.

Imagine the headline on the DOE's press release: "DOE Awards $1 Million to Axion Power With ___________ For Development of Advanced Micro-hybrid Systems"

There's a 50/50 chance we'll see that headline in less than a month. The markets may ignore Axion press releases, but they don't ignore the DOE.]]> Mon, 17 Jun 2013 19:44:46 -0400
In my mind there are two things that would significantly bolster the market's perception of the likelihood of an automotive win. The first would be production partnerships with one or more first tier battery manufacturers. The second would be a disclosed development partnership with a first tier automotive systems manufacturer like Bosch or Valeo.

While I don't feel comfortable assessing the timing of the former, the latter already exists behind the veil of an NDA and will become public knowledge if the DOE makes a favorable decision on the Phase II SBIR.

Imagine the headline on the DOE's press release: "DOE Awards $1 Million to Axion Power With ___________ For Development of Advanced Micro-hybrid Systems"

There's a 50/50 chance we'll see that headline in less than a month. The markets may ignore Axion press releases, but they don't ignore the DOE.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20076342 20076342 Mon, 17 Jun 2013 18:19:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20075582 20075582
The BMW opportunity was a key factor for the ten stockholders (including me) who consented to the corporate actions that made the 2009 financing possible. Like most of Axion's relationships, BMW stayed in stealth mode until they did a joint presentation with Axion at the September 2010 ELBC. By that time selling pressure from legacy stockholders had beat the price into the ground and there wasn't any news strong enough to overcome that pressure.]]> Mon, 17 Jun 2013 17:59:40 -0400
The BMW opportunity was a key factor for the ten stockholders (including me) who consented to the corporate actions that made the 2009 financing possible. Like most of Axion's relationships, BMW stayed in stealth mode until they did a joint presentation with Axion at the September 2010 ELBC. By that time selling pressure from legacy stockholders had beat the price into the ground and there wasn't any news strong enough to overcome that pressure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20074312 20074312
Today the PbC has completed another three years of more detailed testing and validation and progressed to the point where the customer is seeking solutions to a sole source provider problem.

The suggestion that we're back where we started is disingenuous. The PbC has proven itself worthy in the industrial equivalent of special forces school. It's now sporting a jaunty green beret. The only thing lacking is the administrivia of team assignments and operational logistics before going into battle.]]> Mon, 17 Jun 2013 17:17:24 -0400
Today the PbC has completed another three years of more detailed testing and validation and progressed to the point where the customer is seeking solutions to a sole source provider problem.

The suggestion that we're back where we started is disingenuous. The PbC has proven itself worthy in the industrial equivalent of special forces school. It's now sporting a jaunty green beret. The only thing lacking is the administrivia of team assignments and operational logistics before going into battle.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20064632 20064632
It's unclear to me whether the second Gen2 truck will simply be refitted with batteries, or with batteries and the Cummins running gear.

As near as I can tell, ePower has reached the end of its reliance on the John Deere system because it's not EPA Tier III road compliant while the Cummins system is. While the EPA originally told ePower "you guys fall through a crack in our regulations" which left a lot of experimental options open, ePower wants to be sure that everything it does on a go-forward basis is taking the high road rather than relying on the patience and grace of a government body.]]> Mon, 17 Jun 2013 13:03:07 -0400
It's unclear to me whether the second Gen2 truck will simply be refitted with batteries, or with batteries and the Cummins running gear.

As near as I can tell, ePower has reached the end of its reliance on the John Deere system because it's not EPA Tier III road compliant while the Cummins system is. While the EPA originally told ePower "you guys fall through a crack in our regulations" which left a lot of experimental options open, ePower wants to be sure that everything it does on a go-forward basis is taking the high road rather than relying on the patience and grace of a government body.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20063962 20063962
The week before last ePower drove the PbC version of the Gen2 truck to Iowa so the owner could see first-hand how it performed. While the Iowa trucker still wants a bit more power under the hood and is very interested in the Gen3 configuration with a six-cylinder Cummins engine, the road trip was apparently successful enough to convince the owner that upgrading his second truck to PbC was a good interim step.

It didn't take much run time with AGM batteries for ePower to know that the AGM batteries weren't up to the regenerative braking loads, which is what brought them back to Axion. For the last six months ePower has been deliberately trying to break the PbC by doing things that used to fry AGM batteries and has been unable to do so.]]> Mon, 17 Jun 2013 12:43:41 -0400
The week before last ePower drove the PbC version of the Gen2 truck to Iowa so the owner could see first-hand how it performed. While the Iowa trucker still wants a bit more power under the hood and is very interested in the Gen3 configuration with a six-cylinder Cummins engine, the road trip was apparently successful enough to convince the owner that upgrading his second truck to PbC was a good interim step.

It didn't take much run time with AGM batteries for ePower to know that the AGM batteries weren't up to the regenerative braking loads, which is what brought them back to Axion. For the last six months ePower has been deliberately trying to break the PbC by doing things that used to fry AGM batteries and has been unable to do so.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20063082 20063082 Mon, 17 Jun 2013 12:21:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1454631/comments?source=feed#comment-20062922 20062922
Investors don't get to claim brilliance over price gyrations arising from a short squeeze unless they're also smart enough to recognize that they dodged a bullet and take their money off the table.]]> Mon, 17 Jun 2013 12:18:00 -0400
Investors don't get to claim brilliance over price gyrations arising from a short squeeze unless they're also smart enough to recognize that they dodged a bullet and take their money off the table.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20062772 20062772
I can do a pretty good job of predicting the facts, but never claimed any particular insight into emotion.]]> Mon, 17 Jun 2013 12:13:08 -0400
I can do a pretty good job of predicting the facts, but never claimed any particular insight into emotion.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20059022 20059022 Mon, 17 Jun 2013 10:39:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20058912 20058912
I've generally found that the amount of performance required to create guarded optimism is directly related to the length of time an investor has been a stockholder. New investors excite easily while it takes a lot to impress the old timers. That dynamic is fine as long as the old timers remain stable "show me something I can sink my teeth into" types because you really want the market to respond to new investors joining the party instead of old investors increasing their stakes.]]> Mon, 17 Jun 2013 10:35:40 -0400
I've generally found that the amount of performance required to create guarded optimism is directly related to the length of time an investor has been a stockholder. New investors excite easily while it takes a lot to impress the old timers. That dynamic is fine as long as the old timers remain stable "show me something I can sink my teeth into" types because you really want the market to respond to new investors joining the party instead of old investors increasing their stakes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20056182 20056182
What the market is really looking for is an accumulation of customer activity that creates confidence in the PbC's commercial future. ePower was a good start, but folks aren't yet sure that it will move the revenue needle. Getting the NS 999 out of the shop would be a good addition, but without news of a follow-on order the response will be muted. Sales of stationary systems will also be good additions, but without an expectation of repeat business they might not do much individually.

Overall it's a weighing of fear against expectations, and very hard to predict what it will take to change the balance from profound pessimism to guarded optimism.]]> Mon, 17 Jun 2013 09:28:07 -0400
What the market is really looking for is an accumulation of customer activity that creates confidence in the PbC's commercial future. ePower was a good start, but folks aren't yet sure that it will move the revenue needle. Getting the NS 999 out of the shop would be a good addition, but without news of a follow-on order the response will be muted. Sales of stationary systems will also be good additions, but without an expectation of repeat business they might not do much individually.

Overall it's a weighing of fear against expectations, and very hard to predict what it will take to change the balance from profound pessimism to guarded optimism.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20054772 20054772
http://seekingalpha.co...

That article also used a very good graph from Osawa and Miyazaki that depicts the business Valley of Death which reaches a low point between the initial product launch and success as a new product.

The quick answer is that emotional cycles are a lather, rinse, repeat process.

The first emotional cycle begins when a company starts an R&D project. For that cycle, expectations are highest in the early days and reach very depressed levels when the R&D is completed and everybody is waiting on the market's judgment about whether an innovation has value.

The end of the first cycle is identified on the Gartner Graph as the innovation trigger. Once there are clear signs that the market believes a new product has value, the Gartner Hype Cycle begins in earnest.

Axion is an odd duck because it went public far too early in the PbC's lifecycle. We knew it was a suboptimal choice from the outset, but there were so many conflicting claims to the technology that a public company looked like the only way to resolve them.

I believe Axion is at the bottom of the Valley of Death and shows clear signs of starting the long climb up to success as a commercial business. While nothing in Axion's history has developed as quickly as I thought it would, it hasn't been forced to make the sacrifices and compromises that I feared would be necessary to get the PbC to this point. Where most products lose a lot between the early lab prototypes and the final commercial version, the PbC has gotten better over time as Axion learned how to make it, and then learned how to make it better.]]> Mon, 17 Jun 2013 08:46:51 -0400
http://seekingalpha.co...

That article also used a very good graph from Osawa and Miyazaki that depicts the business Valley of Death which reaches a low point between the initial product launch and success as a new product.

The quick answer is that emotional cycles are a lather, rinse, repeat process.

The first emotional cycle begins when a company starts an R&D project. For that cycle, expectations are highest in the early days and reach very depressed levels when the R&D is completed and everybody is waiting on the market's judgment about whether an innovation has value.

The end of the first cycle is identified on the Gartner Graph as the innovation trigger. Once there are clear signs that the market believes a new product has value, the Gartner Hype Cycle begins in earnest.

Axion is an odd duck because it went public far too early in the PbC's lifecycle. We knew it was a suboptimal choice from the outset, but there were so many conflicting claims to the technology that a public company looked like the only way to resolve them.

I believe Axion is at the bottom of the Valley of Death and shows clear signs of starting the long climb up to success as a commercial business. While nothing in Axion's history has developed as quickly as I thought it would, it hasn't been forced to make the sacrifices and compromises that I feared would be necessary to get the PbC to this point. Where most products lose a lot between the early lab prototypes and the final commercial version, the PbC has gotten better over time as Axion learned how to make it, and then learned how to make it better.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20053472 20053472 Mon, 17 Jun 2013 08:00:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20027022 20027022 Sun, 16 Jun 2013 01:21:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20018642 20018642 Sat, 15 Jun 2013 14:11:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20018532 20018532
First, dollars per kWh is the most meaningless metric in the battery industry because no applications are designed for 100% depth of discharge. None.

They're fun figures to throw around, particularly if a manufacturer doesn't clearly specify whether it's talking about cell, module or pack level costs, with and without ancillary temperature control and battery management systems. Lithium talks a good price game but generally doesn't deliver one.

Second, the implied price from the first PbC order is meaningless because those batteries were built and sold before Axion commissioned the new carbon sheeting line that stripped 80% to 90% of the labor cost out of the battery.

The general rule of efficiency curve economies is that a manufacturer will reduce the cost of value added activity by 20% to 30% with each doubling of cumulative production volume. Axion has already reaped one huge efficiency curve effect and will reap others as it learns how to manufacture electrode efficiencies. The manufacturing methods used by Dow Kokam and by transitivity by Corvus are fully standardized industrial processes that have been used for decades by the best manufacturers in the world. There is no significant room for future cost improvements.]]> Sat, 15 Jun 2013 14:03:55 -0400
First, dollars per kWh is the most meaningless metric in the battery industry because no applications are designed for 100% depth of discharge. None.

They're fun figures to throw around, particularly if a manufacturer doesn't clearly specify whether it's talking about cell, module or pack level costs, with and without ancillary temperature control and battery management systems. Lithium talks a good price game but generally doesn't deliver one.

Second, the implied price from the first PbC order is meaningless because those batteries were built and sold before Axion commissioned the new carbon sheeting line that stripped 80% to 90% of the labor cost out of the battery.

The general rule of efficiency curve economies is that a manufacturer will reduce the cost of value added activity by 20% to 30% with each doubling of cumulative production volume. Axion has already reaped one huge efficiency curve effect and will reap others as it learns how to manufacture electrode efficiencies. The manufacturing methods used by Dow Kokam and by transitivity by Corvus are fully standardized industrial processes that have been used for decades by the best manufacturers in the world. There is no significant room for future cost improvements.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1954522-axion-power-concentrator-244-june-14-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-20014912 20014912
You just made an advantageous exit and re-entry. That kind of out and back in trading is possible with a small account and a lot of luck. It's much harder with larger blocks, or if too many people try to implement the same strategy and flood the market on either the sell or the buy side.]]> Sat, 15 Jun 2013 11:36:04 -0400
You just made an advantageous exit and re-entry. That kind of out and back in trading is possible with a small account and a lot of luck. It's much harder with larger blocks, or if too many people try to implement the same strategy and flood the market on either the sell or the buy side.]]>