User 227528's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/227528/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/91808-fannie-freddie-and-the-debt-rollover-problem?source=feed#comment-235085 235085 Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:27:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90657-wamu-intensification-of-stealth-buying?source=feed#comment-229500 229500
>My money is in a 24 hour money market account yielding 8%

WOW where you get that rates? I want to be there :)]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 12:26:24 -0400
>My money is in a 24 hour money market account yielding 8%

WOW where you get that rates? I want to be there :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89260-is-one-automaker-default-almost-a-sure-thing?source=feed#comment-223551 223551
As for the taxpayer rescuing the banks and automakers, it would be helpful if someone do some research on how much taxes (direct and indirect) those companies have paid in the past 10 years and how much more could paid in the future if they are helped to survive.
]]> Tue, 05 Aug 2008 19:00:45 -0400
As for the taxpayer rescuing the banks and automakers, it would be helpful if someone do some research on how much taxes (direct and indirect) those companies have paid in the past 10 years and how much more could paid in the future if they are helped to survive.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87106-wamu-and-more-uninsured-depositors-begging-for-trouble?source=feed#comment-214708 214708
money.cnn.com/2008/07/...

Hopefully this news will be all over the place on Monday to start the short squeeze windfall.


]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 16:53:32 -0400
money.cnn.com/2008/07/...

Hopefully this news will be all over the place on Monday to start the short squeeze windfall.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87106-wamu-and-more-uninsured-depositors-begging-for-trouble?source=feed#comment-214619 214619
The overselling of the stock in the past two days seems to guarantee a short squeeze if the bank isn’t seized by the FDIC this week (which isn’t as sure as you want people to beleive).

I hope your bets are covered…

As for “seeking alpha” editors: Someone needs to realize, the reputation of this site is being jeopardized by one writer who doesn’t bother to disclose his biases.
]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 14:49:38 -0400
The overselling of the stock in the past two days seems to guarantee a short squeeze if the bank isn’t seized by the FDIC this week (which isn’t as sure as you want people to beleive).

I hope your bets are covered…

As for “seeking alpha” editors: Someone needs to realize, the reputation of this site is being jeopardized by one writer who doesn’t bother to disclose his biases.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87106-wamu-and-more-uninsured-depositors-begging-for-trouble?source=feed#comment-214589 214589
You may make a few dollars with your short positions but your credibility is being ruined by not being candid of your intentions.

If you think credibility is not important then ask yourself why those banks are being shorted and you may realize there are things more valuable than money…

Good luck with your short…
]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 14:22:05 -0400
You may make a few dollars with your short positions but your credibility is being ruined by not being candid of your intentions.

If you think credibility is not important then ask yourself why those banks are being shorted and you may realize there are things more valuable than money…

Good luck with your short…
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86462-citi-merrill-wamu-death-spiral-financing?source=feed#comment-213860 213860
Second, let’s not forget that Mr Bonderman business is into take public properties out of the market and make them private.

Third, Mr Bonderman said he has no rush to recover his investment and also has a 25 Billion war chest sitting in his lap.

The terms of the deal with Wamu seems like it was designed to be a first round of financing to take the bank completely, wait a couple of years until the dust settles and cash his way out.

Let’s assume WaMu needs 6 Billion more capital… I bet he will not commit that kind of money in a completely distressed business without some considerable discount. $3 Dollars per share will be around 30% discount of its current price so for simplification lets use that number (if the price is less than $3 the numbers will be much nicer for him) .

If that were the case Mr Bonderman will invest 13 Billons, and obtain 72% of the shares at an average price of $3.36 (the book value of the adjusted shares will be $ 7.0).

Today selloff was about 20% of the outstanding shares and most likely most of today sales were shorts, at first sight this is a no brainer short: either the company goes bankrupt and the value of the shares goes to $0 or there is a new capital injection (PLUS the “full ratchet” compensation) that will dilute the value of the shares considerably, so there is no way to lose …

But let’s remember that someone is buying at the other side of those short sales… What would happen if some of the friends of Mr Bonderman are actually buying those shares?… What would happen if Mr Bonderman does inject the needed capital AND offers to buy the remainder shares at around $ 7.0 dollars (The new book value) in order to take the company private?

Oh boy, that would be the perfect short squeeze! The mother of all Bear Traps

Mr. Bonderman friends don’t need to sell any time soon. The shares will jump in value to the $ 10’s because there wouldn’t be many shares left to sell and many of those shorters may want to cover their bets…

No matter if Mr Bonderman does indeed buy the remainder shares or not… the shares will be around $7.0 for a 100% return of his investment… And if they manage to pass the storm the bank could easily reach $ 15 in 2 or 3 years down the road…
]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 19:56:08 -0400
Second, let’s not forget that Mr Bonderman business is into take public properties out of the market and make them private.

Third, Mr Bonderman said he has no rush to recover his investment and also has a 25 Billion war chest sitting in his lap.

The terms of the deal with Wamu seems like it was designed to be a first round of financing to take the bank completely, wait a couple of years until the dust settles and cash his way out.

Let’s assume WaMu needs 6 Billion more capital… I bet he will not commit that kind of money in a completely distressed business without some considerable discount. $3 Dollars per share will be around 30% discount of its current price so for simplification lets use that number (if the price is less than $3 the numbers will be much nicer for him) .

If that were the case Mr Bonderman will invest 13 Billons, and obtain 72% of the shares at an average price of $3.36 (the book value of the adjusted shares will be $ 7.0).

Today selloff was about 20% of the outstanding shares and most likely most of today sales were shorts, at first sight this is a no brainer short: either the company goes bankrupt and the value of the shares goes to $0 or there is a new capital injection (PLUS the “full ratchet” compensation) that will dilute the value of the shares considerably, so there is no way to lose …

But let’s remember that someone is buying at the other side of those short sales… What would happen if some of the friends of Mr Bonderman are actually buying those shares?… What would happen if Mr Bonderman does inject the needed capital AND offers to buy the remainder shares at around $ 7.0 dollars (The new book value) in order to take the company private?

Oh boy, that would be the perfect short squeeze! The mother of all Bear Traps

Mr. Bonderman friends don’t need to sell any time soon. The shares will jump in value to the $ 10’s because there wouldn’t be many shares left to sell and many of those shorters may want to cover their bets…

No matter if Mr Bonderman does indeed buy the remainder shares or not… the shares will be around $7.0 for a 100% return of his investment… And if they manage to pass the storm the bank could easily reach $ 15 in 2 or 3 years down the road…
]]>