BOHICA

"Stretching the Tape"

"Put the shovel away...it's too early to bury our crash call."

Nobody's got a shovel out. It's just that until last Friday, even your missed calls were later conveyed by you with a lot of self-administered credit, as if even the bad calls were in accordance with some sort of prophecy.

As I said previously, few here expect this to end well. As you probably are aware, that's one reason it keeps going.

The Big One was supposed to happen beginning the week before last. Now you seem to be saying it will maybe happen in this month or maybe by...the end of the year. In an effort to keep this positive, perhaps I might ask what you suppose your model is missing?

"Stretching the Tape"

BAM Investor wrote: "Well, it looks like we’re at the moment of truth with respect to the BAM Model’s prediction of an imminent stock market crash. Clients should be well prepared, having been provided ample warning and we’ve also done our best to warn individual investors who have been following us via our blog, website or Twitter campaign."

Thank you for offering predictive BAM model thoughts real-time on Twitter. Just to be clear, few of us consider the current bull-run to be a trajectory with a happy ending. However, the simple fact is the moment of truth has come, and gone, relative to no less than 3 predictions boldly offered this week by BAM:

1) The BAM model, as noted in your Twitter comments, predicted a big fall in the equities market this past Monday (the market rose substantially instead).
2) The BAM model, also captured in Twitter comments, predicted weakness in the equities markets into this Friday (at week's end, we can look back and see moderate strength, instead).
3) As quoted previously, the BAM model predicted SPX 944 by Friday (an unequivocally incorrect prediction just like predictions 1 and 2).

One always wonders why prediction models such as BAM are offered for sampling and ultimate sale to the public if they're exceptionally reliable as tools of investment and speculation. This demonstration helps us more clearly understand that mystery. That there is no accountability for these failed prophesies is unfortunately also in keeping with the tradition of retail divination enterprises.

"Stretching the Tape"

BAM Investor wrote: "According to our model, we should see sharp downside moves in both of those mkts into Friday (October 9th) and, yes, we’re sticking with our SPX target of 944."


Okay, this has not happened as prophesied. Now what? Awaiting further instructions.

"Stretching the Tape"

On Oct 09 01:37 AM JG Savoldi wrote:
Nothing was deleted from BAM site as you claim here. BAM site is not set up for comments.


Really? Let me get this straight: The BAM site is not set up for comments, but you have a place set up on your BAM site for comments.

"Stretching the Tape"

"Investors! How accurate is BAM? Take a look at what we were predicting back on August 11th and August 14th of 2008."

Yes, but BAM does not appear to accurately predict everything. Take a look at what BAM was predicting 3 days ago: "$SPX.X-- No change in model. 944 later this week..."

"Stretching the Tape"

5 days ago, BAM predicted a big fall this past Monday in the stock market. Instead, the market rose. Tried to place this observation on the BAM site, but it was deleted. What gives?

Book Review: The Guru Investor, by John P. Reese

Haven't been able to replicate anything close to what Reese claims each of these strategies obtains on an annualized basis. His own managed accounts also are not able to replicate anything close to his annualized return claims.

How do you explain that? Well, that probably helps explain why Reese doesn't return your emails.

Long Term View of the Dow

How come you don't show your model portfolio's returns anymore?

Is the GLD ETF Really Worth Its Metal?

Any suggested alternatives, reasonably accessible, to the GLD etf?

Puget Energy's Merger - Why Does Public Counsel Want It Delayed?

"I reckon MacQuarrie may be getting cold feet........The ASX(Australian Stock index) is severely deflated and some of the Banks are in trouble(even more so than in other countries) as Australian economy is predicated on Commodities and they have taken a bit of a beating recently."



What does Macquarie Infrastructure Partners, the group that is buying out PSD, have to do with the Australian economy? This investment partnership is not part of Macquarie Group, the Australian entity.

Another Great Depression... Not

Yeah, it seems odd to compare now to 1932, when 1929 would be a better comparison.

Investing In China: A Quant Perspective

James Altucher is a hit and run financial literature shill. I'm glad to see reputable authors critique his investment suggestions, which he does not seem to personally follow.

Leveraged ETFs Have Wild Week

Continued to be dazzled by the insight provided in your articles. And I am glad SOMEBODY took the time to point out that after a market rally, leveraged ETFs with a bullish posture did even better than the non-leveraged bullish ETFs, whereas the leveraged ETFs with a bearish posture did even worse than the non-leveraged bearish ETFs.

Best and Worst Performing ETFs This Week

Kunst, I am pulling your leg. These "articles" contain all the value that you and I are paying for them.

Preferreds and Munis

Hey, J. Howle, these guys aren't interested in how little these vehicles really correlate or how meaningless it is that one vehicle reminds them of the other, okay? They've got their pictures up, given you a chart, and they will not be taking questions, so just move on to the next article.