Seeking Alpha

BOHICA

BOHICA
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View BOHICA's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 6 Rallying Tech Stocks The Smart Money Is Selling [View article]
    Technical-based articles like this are what happens when authors do absolutely no research regarding the companies about which the authors are writing.

    VSEA is being bought out, so institutions aren't waiting to find out if the deal will actually transpire to collect an extra 1.5% on the stock's post-merger-announcement price run-up. Having that clue at one's disposal, why is the institutional selling noteworthy?
    Sep 23, 2011. 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Insiders Go on a Buying Binge - Another Bullish Contrarian Sign [View article]
    Not saying this call is wrong, but the author's reasoning is repudiated by history at major market turning points.

    Insiders showed similar buying patterns in late 2007. There is a reason you're not aware of a single investment newsletter, continuing to publish over entire market cycles, that successfully relies on corporate insiders.

    Isn't this the same dude that touted the Japanese stock market after the crash in March due, amongst other reasons, to all the cash on Japanese balance sheets? Anyone who knows the Japanese markets knows the cash might as well be a chimera as it won't be touched (the cash is chained to the Bank of Japan), so its presence is meaningless. This is why Japan's economy is best known as a zombie economy.

    It is important to validate one's convictions. The best validation is also verified through some reasonable historical precedent. No offense intended, but this author doesn't seem to know much about market history. Caveat emptor.
    Aug 20, 2011. 01:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is a Correction, Not a Crash: Buy Your Wish List [View article]
    Thank you for calling attention to the distinction between a correction and a crash. We all know the difference after the fact. The author is clearly confident we just experienced a correction. While it is interesting to see someone comfortable in his confidence, this article merely begs the question, "How do we tell we're in the midst of a correction or a crash?"
    Aug 13, 2011. 02:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Is a Good Time to Sell [View article]
    Mr. Adler: I just discovered your excellent articles on Seeking Alpha, and am embarrassed to say I was not aware of POMO's active futures contract role in the rising prices of commodities. Out of curiosity, as both stocks and bonds are unattractive at this time, are you also bearish about commodities in context of a withdrawn QE by the Fed? It seems to me commodities are the safest place to be, but I wonder if down-moves like today are in anticipation of no more QEing.
    Apr 11, 2011. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japanese Stocks: Cheapest Fundamental Value on Record [View article]
    Daily Trading wrote: "There is something else that should be taken into account: Cash sitting on a Japanese company's balance sheets is significantly higher than at its U.K. and U.S. counterparts (about 25% more), so if you were to strip out this cash component, the price to book valuation differential would be even more pronounced."

    While theoretically true, the extra cash on the balance sheets of Japanese equities is not handled in Japan as it is elsewhere. Cash on balance sheets is completely inaccessible to foreign investors, and is more or less owned by the banks (although nobody ever really says so). Many value investors have learned this lesson the hard way over the past 2 decades, and it is an important reason why Japanese businesses languish as they do.

    I'm not arguing there is no value in Japan right now. But lots of cash on balance sheets is unfortunately a trap if one is using this argument to select Japanese stocks.
    Mar 17, 2011. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Utilities Are Warning the Correction Is Here [View article]
    What's interesting about Michael Gayed's assessment is that he's offering several vantage points, none of which would be particularly compelling in isolation but all of which are pointing to the same thing, and are therefore extremely useful.

    Utility and other defensive stocks are rising relative to the rest of the market; whereas aggressive sectors are not. We're seeing other clues which back up his argument: industrial metals are starting to drop or at least slow down in price appreciation. Treasuries have stopped dropping relative to the big stock indexes.

    These trends happen to be whispering rather than shouting right now. The profits are best for those to pay attention to the undercurrents while they're still quiet.
    Mar 10, 2011. 11:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bargain Micro Caps: 10 Cigar Butt Stocks Worth a Look [View article]
    "All in all, a safe way to play Cigar Butt stocks is just as Graham recommended way back in the 1930's and 40's: Buy at least 15-30 (50 preferably) of them and sell them once you have achieved a 15% gain."

    Thanks for the reminder about cigar-butts. To the best of my knowledge, Ben Graham never wrote to sell the cigar butts once the individual stock or collection rose 15%. Can you cite a source for this recommendation?
    Mar 7, 2011. 10:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swap Spreads Indicate Economic Stability [View article]
    Thank you for the information about swap spreads. Out of curiosity, is this a leading indicator about credit risks? On the basis of what I see on the chart, it looks like this indicator spikes by the time everyone is cognizant there is increased "systemic risk". But I may be missing something important.

    I read the explanation that you've thoughtfully included on your blog on swap spreads, but is there a specific way you make use of this information, aside from the fact that the spreads move up when people are panicking and move down when they are not panicking?

    Thank you for any thoughts.
    Mar 6, 2011. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 ETFs to Play This Year's Deja Vu Market [View article]
    Interesting article, although I wonder about yo choice in HYG. As you probably are aware, the spread between high-yield corporates and Treasuries is tighter than at any time in history. Obviously, the majority of investors agree wholeheartedly with your thesis. Do you suppose this is a good omen for buying junk debt?
    Mar 6, 2011. 03:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, You Should Buy TIPS; Here's How and When [View article]
    "The sweet spot in terms of risk and return on TIPS is probably at the same maturity/duration as in conventional bonds around 5 years. Buy and hold investors building positions at real yields above 1.5 -1.75% will on balance do well relative to Treasuries by purchasing TIPS in those maturities (or the ETF TIP) at those yields."

    This is a superb article. I would be grateful to learn if and how you quantitatively determine the sweat spot of risk and return.
    Mar 5, 2011. 03:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sector Strength Warning Us of a Correction? [View article]
    Once again, a thoughtful and thought-provoking article. I notice also trends seem to be moving upwards with U.S Treasuries relative to equities, although yields are also creeping up and helping out with the inflation the Yield Curve seems to be predicting.

    Having noticed you once wrote a book on intermarket analysis (now out-of-print although I plan to pick it up), can you suggest some especially helpful intermarket ratios to monitor (relative especially to bonds, currencies and commodities)? Also, if I may ask, where do you place your capital when the equities markets get defensive, as relative performance with defensive stocks may not be sufficient for profits in what may lay ahead.

    Thanks for any thoughts.
    Mar 4, 2011. 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Growth and Dividend Expansion Will Lead Banks Higher [View article]
    Not sure why you would use the 2-Year to 10-year spread because the 3-month to 10-Year spread is more reliable and DID predict the recessions missed by the 2-Year to 10-Year.
    Feb 28, 2011. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Spiking Oil is Deflationary [View article]
    I wasn't comparing long-term Treasuries to TIPS, but rather to medium-term (7-10 yr) Treasuries.

    Using your price ratio methodology, IEF:TIP has moved steadily downward since September 2010 rather than just when oil spiked over $100/barrel. This suggests the bond market is presently concerned about inflation rather than deflation, as has been the case since Autumn. Contrast this with the bond market's prompt reaction as the European debt crises began to gather momentum last Spring.

    Other indicators of deflation are also not forthcoming. During deflationary periods, the Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index drops steadily. That is not the case, now. Could change at any time, but deflation is presently not recognized by the bond market, which is probably the oracle that matters most.
    Feb 27, 2011. 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Spiking Oil is Deflationary [View article]
    Interesting line of thinking applied in the article. However, logically extending the ratio ETF comparison you're utilizing, I looked at the ratio of 10-Year Treasuries to TIPS, and find that the ratio is moving down (i.e. TIPS are moving up). How can that be, if spiking oil portends deflation?
    Feb 27, 2011. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charles Nenner's Trends and Trades: Investor's Roadmap for 2010-2011 [View article]
    "Nenner himself would not claim infallibility."

    Absolutely correct!!! Nenner is much less self-serving than that, claiming only 99% accuracy rather than 100% accuracy. He predicted a big decline in U.S. stocks last Autumn, then when that prediction did not transpire, he conveniently shifted his prediction to January 2011 as if he'd been predicting a fall in January all along. He predicted big shifts in NASDAQ and the European stock exchanges late last Autumn that also never materialized.

    He'd be the richest man in the world if his predictions were even 75% accurate, because he makes a lot of predictions (which he modifies without notice, as I've come to learn by watching him for only the past 7 months).

    Do a web-search on "Follow the Nenner", provided by a couple of Dutch investors last year for a better understanding of Nenner's inaccuracy in real-time. Note also that Nenner was NOT predicting a 2008 equity market crash, but rather a side-ways market, although now he claims he was (see CNBC interviews still available on You-Tube if you think I'm talking rubbish).

    Seriously, folks who sing this guy's praises are not taking full-measure of his complete record, which is a disgrace as I've started to study it carefully in real-time.
    Feb 16, 2011. 12:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
50 Comments
34 Likes