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Sean Erickson

Sean Erickson
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  • 1 Reason Target Is Better Than Wal-Mart For Long-Term Dividend Investors [View article]
    A buyback only adds value if target is currently undervalued
    Jul 5, 2015. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation: Buy The Dip [View article]
    Buybacks are a very good thing in this case. Anh is a company that earns low returns on eauity and trades at a significant discount to its book value, so the company would already be worth more dead than alive. Sure if anh could reinvest capital over the long-term at 10-12% or more than it would be worth retaining but 8% is maybe the most they could hope to do so the best choice is to give the money back to shareholders through buybacks given the market discount. Problem is that they have stopped buying back in a significant way.
    Jul 4, 2015. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EPR Properties Can Add Yield To Your Portfolio [View article]
    It doesnt seem overvalued to me, theyll have ffo of about $4.40 this year so on todays price thats about a 12.65x multiple that seems pretty reasonable considering their leverage and roi. My favorite way to play it is the series c convertible
    Jul 4, 2015. 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating GM's 2016 Earnings [View article]
    And really a 35% tax rate seems a little conservative considering they still have $30 billion in deferred tax assets
    Jul 4, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation: Buy The Dip [View article]
    I think the faith in the buyback is misguided, its been known that its against managements interests and theyve really started to scale it back, purchasing only 116k shares in april for roughly $600k even while issuing $1.35 million in preferred stock. Their days of buying back 5 million + shares a quarter are well behind them
    Jul 4, 2015. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Wal-Mart has $76B in overseas tax havens [View news story]
    So the vast vast majority of it is $1.3 billion of income thats reported in these tax havens. Of course this report assumes that without these havens that the money would be repatriated at the full 35% corporate tax rate, but in reality this is fairly unlikely and a more appropriate number might be closer to the 15% range of most of the countries they operate in. Regardless, there's nothing illegal here and even if walmart were to stop using these tax havens and repatriate at the full 35% rate, its still only about $500 million a year, not horribly significant, at maybe 3% of income. There are certainly some offenders that are much worse
    Jun 17, 2015. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Shares Pricing In A Turnaround That Hasn't Happened Yet [View article]
    whenever you discount over such a short period of time, the terminal growth rate holds almost all the value. In this case, its given at 3%. That and an assumed dividend growth rate of 2%. These seem to be pretty conservative figures and with modeling when you pick the figures you can get any result you want.
    May 14, 2015. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors' Financial Efficiency Ratios Have Decreased, But The Stock Price Is Flat [View article]
    In his letter to Mary Barra he makes it clear that it was not him that purchased the stock. Also, It's only about a $1.5 billion position, so it would not be anywhere among his strongest positions
    Apr 22, 2015. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors' Financial Efficiency Ratios Have Decreased, But The Stock Price Is Flat [View article]
    Im long GM but lots to disagree with here. Gm at $36 is attractive in my view but GM is not worth 15x earnings and none of the auto companies are. As far as Warren Buffett goes, hes made it clear that he was not the one that invested in GM, but one of his deputies.
    Apr 20, 2015. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Majority Of Its Top Real Estate Is In The REIT [View article]
    Id say bankruptcy is still a big possibility for 2018, even with $2.5 billion in cash. The revolver will disappear next year, ongoing operating losses will continue, added $160 million interest expense and by 2018 you have well over a billion dollars of maturities
    Apr 4, 2015. 03:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Warren Buffett Move The Goalposts In The Latest Letter? [View article]
    Just more information shareholders and all the information is there for shareholders to make a decision. The old column is still there so no he didnt move any goal posts and book value performance has been satisfactory. the s&p has been very strong, but thats only looking at 1/2 of a cycle. Of course hes right that how goodwill is accounted for makes book value growth a poorer proxy as berkshire has become an operating company as goodwill is never adjusted upwards
    Mar 1, 2015. 02:40 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Increases Dividend 2%; I Wouldn't Have Increased It At All [View article]
    sure owning walmart would have its advantages, you get to forgo the 20% dividend tax and capital gains taxes but there are downsides too, permanent loss of liquidity, nearly all your eggs in one basket and less access to capital markets
    Feb 20, 2015. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Chemical: Be Contrarian And Buy The Shares Before Earnings [View article]
    I dont consider the movement in dow a merciless beatdown, just the normal type of movements you see in the stock market. 20% moves are not that rare. That said, I do think that dow represents decent value here which is hard to find in this market.
    Jan 26, 2015. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Failure To Close The Electricity Loop Looms Large [View article]
    Shich is why scty is king. The ability to sell at higher prices is a huge advantage and speaks to its value creation
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivint Solar's Smart Business Model And The Solar Opportunity Make It A Good Buy [View article]
    Keep in mind that about 75% of the stock based compensation was a one off due to the difference between the ipo price and an equity sale to insiders, so probably really closer to $3.30. Of course leverage can make a big difference when it comes to value created but at this time vivint doesnt have the access to the low cost capital that scty does. I think a move into sales would be hugely beneficial as i believe it already has been for scty.
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
288 Comments
215 Likes