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Sean Erickson

Sean Erickson
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  • Wal-Mart's Boost From Lower Gas Prices Should Be Sold [View article]
    Did i read this right? Only six years until terminal growth rate of 3%?
    Dec 20, 2014. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings Corporation: Is Any Price Overvalued? [View article]
    Bulk real estate deals are definitely whats needed, its the brightest spot there is. In my opinion, sears is no longer a value play on the value of its assets which may exceed book value by about $3.5 billion (real estate assets in the $6 billion range) but instead a play on its profitable stores and online business. To me, the bleeding is too severe (which bulk deals could help to slow) and sears does seem to be experiencing diseconomies of scale as it reduces its store count. I cant justify an investment at this time, but will continue to watch
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings Corporation: Is Any Price Overvalued? [View article]
    Well same store sales have only stabilized because they're pricing in a way where profits are impossible. As far as the closed stores, they can hardly make a dent in sears' profitability. Sears announced earlier that the closed stores generate negative ebitda of $50 million a year. Sears generates negative ebitda of about -$380 million a quarter with true losses significantly above that as interest is definitely a real and growing expense and depreciation shouldnt be completely ignored either. Just last quarters debt offering added $50 million in annual interest expense and had to give away warrants for more than 20% of the comoany just to get that done. Its tough to see a path to profitability for sears.
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Sears And Staples More Valuable As Domain Names Than Brick And Mortar Stores? [View article]
    Of course eddies blog indicates sears needs to close down stores, its business is failing. It has a tangible negative book value of -$2.2 billion, loses $500 million a quarter and is approaching insolvency. Sears online business is still a very small percentage of their business however and its unlikely that portion is profitable
    Dec 18, 2014. 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Buy The Dip, It Will Not Last [View article]
    Kmi is a strong company but not without risks. The drop in oil does effect them negatively, more so than some realize if crude stays depressed and kmi doesnt get the benefit from the hedges. Another risk is the possibility of producers going bankrupt, take or pay doesnt do any good in that situation. Risk/reward still seems reasonable here but its important to recognize that kmi is not insulated from these risks.
    Disclosure for wade: long kmi (but constantly evaluating)
    Dec 11, 2014. 11:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Best Idea For 2015: General Motors [View article]
    A significant part of gms value is in its deferred tax assets so really the valuation is way less than 9x earnings
    Dec 9, 2014. 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Scales Down, Heinz Ramps Up [View article]
    Heinz isnt really ramping up just rationalizing, moving factories from high cost to low cost locations
    Dec 7, 2014. 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan's Plan To Take The Oil And Gas Industry By Storm Materializes [View article]
    I get that kmi's exposure to oil is somewhat small but i find it interesting that almost every comment related to oil says something like i dont see oil staying low for very long. If thats your opinion, why not just own the futures. For just a couple dollars above the current price you can own contracts out 18 months or so. In reality, i think the future price of oil is more difficult to determine
    Dec 7, 2014. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Sears Holdings Reports Q3 2014 Earnings [View article]
    Its worse than it lucks, the reduction in inventories is starting to meaningfully impact the revolver
    Dec 6, 2014. 07:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors' Profitability Is Dependent On A Highly Competitive Premium Car Market [View article]
    Id be extraordinarily surprised if cadillac was gms most profitable segment, any evidence to back that up?
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: A Defensive Buy For 2015 [View article]
    Its a mistake to think that hedged production isnt exposed. Hedges are for roughly 24 months into the future so if oil stays depressed that production could be at risk too and if they want to stay hedged they'll have to hedge at lower prices
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors Is A Buy After Strong Sales Report [View article]
    I own gm and am favorable on its prospects but you cant value gm on an ex-cash business. Gm has stated that it meeds near $30 billion of liquidity for operating purposes and backing that out of the valuation is inappropriate.
    Dec 5, 2014. 10:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Minimum wage increases start to spread [View news story]
    Yeah it doesnt happen in all industries or even all minimum wage ones but it does have an effect. The greater effect isnt a rationalizing of workforce in respect to an increase in the minimum wage but rather an acceleration towards the least labor intensive trend. Onlines cost advantage over b&m is increased or maybe frozen foods cost advantage over prepared food is increased
    Dec 2, 2014. 10:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Minimum wage increases start to spread [View news story]
    Good for walmart in a way as its the most efficient of the B&M retailers. However, it does increase the advantage of online retailers vs B&M.
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Stock Nosedives, Time To Sell Out Or Buy With Both Hands? [View article]
    A little over 2%, almost a normal move for this stock. Valuation does seem reasonable, I would hold and see how things look after closing
    Nov 20, 2014. 06:19 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment