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Sean Erickson

Sean Erickson
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  • Trust Wal-Mart's 2019 Profit Guidance [View article]
    sorry for the late reply, but I just saw this. Walmart's Long-Term Debt is regularly about $40 billion, perhaps you were intending to say its short-term debt which is another $5 billion. Now, I do think this debt is sustainable but it is significant enough to limit further debt-financed buybacks.
    Nov 18, 2015. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trust Wal-Mart's 2019 Profit Guidance [View article]
    The problem is the valuation isn't even that compelling even if 2019 guidance is about accurate. And of course, the guidance includes the buyback program. I dont think you can expect it to be accelerated much because there's only so much cash available.
    Nov 4, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Wal-Mart Cannot Move The Needle By Cutting Only 450 HQ Jobs [View article]
    or maybe its that Walmart's workforce was more right-sized in the first place
    Oct 5, 2015. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Wal-Mart At These Levels For The Yield [View article]
    You can get killed buying a stock for a 3% yield. And looking at what the 20 year high for the yield is can be just as useless as things change such as the payout ratio. The stock market discounts all future cash flows, so its the valuation that should ultimately be focused on because if that becomes out of line, regardless of the dividend yield, market reaction will be swift.
    Sep 25, 2015. 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart: Why It's Time To Stop Playing Big Brother To Sam's Club [View article]
    over the last year costco's ROE actually exceeded WMT's by a little bit. WMT was about 19.7% while Costco's was just over 20. This is a single metric though and has limited uses when comparing companies that are somewhat different like costco and walmart.
    Sep 7, 2015. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is General Mills A Stock To Hold? [View article]
    Yup, wrong ticker. Also i dont think having a long-term perspective is a valid justification for making a poor investment
    Jul 7, 2015. 06:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 Reason Target Is Better Than Wal-Mart For Long-Term Dividend Investors [View article]
    A buyback only adds value if target is currently undervalued
    Jul 5, 2015. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation: Buy The Dip [View article]
    Buybacks are a very good thing in this case. Anh is a company that earns low returns on eauity and trades at a significant discount to its book value, so the company would already be worth more dead than alive. Sure if anh could reinvest capital over the long-term at 10-12% or more than it would be worth retaining but 8% is maybe the most they could hope to do so the best choice is to give the money back to shareholders through buybacks given the market discount. Problem is that they have stopped buying back in a significant way.
    Jul 4, 2015. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EPR Properties Can Add Yield To Your Portfolio [View article]
    It doesnt seem overvalued to me, theyll have ffo of about $4.40 this year so on todays price thats about a 12.65x multiple that seems pretty reasonable considering their leverage and roi. My favorite way to play it is the series c convertible
    Jul 4, 2015. 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating GM's 2016 Earnings [View article]
    And really a 35% tax rate seems a little conservative considering they still have $30 billion in deferred tax assets
    Jul 4, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation: Buy The Dip [View article]
    I think the faith in the buyback is misguided, its been known that its against managements interests and theyve really started to scale it back, purchasing only 116k shares in april for roughly $600k even while issuing $1.35 million in preferred stock. Their days of buying back 5 million + shares a quarter are well behind them
    Jul 4, 2015. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Wal-Mart has $76B in overseas tax havens [View news story]
    So the vast vast majority of it is $1.3 billion of income thats reported in these tax havens. Of course this report assumes that without these havens that the money would be repatriated at the full 35% corporate tax rate, but in reality this is fairly unlikely and a more appropriate number might be closer to the 15% range of most of the countries they operate in. Regardless, there's nothing illegal here and even if walmart were to stop using these tax havens and repatriate at the full 35% rate, its still only about $500 million a year, not horribly significant, at maybe 3% of income. There are certainly some offenders that are much worse
    Jun 17, 2015. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart Shares Pricing In A Turnaround That Hasn't Happened Yet [View article]
    whenever you discount over such a short period of time, the terminal growth rate holds almost all the value. In this case, its given at 3%. That and an assumed dividend growth rate of 2%. These seem to be pretty conservative figures and with modeling when you pick the figures you can get any result you want.
    May 14, 2015. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors' Financial Efficiency Ratios Have Decreased, But The Stock Price Is Flat [View article]
    In his letter to Mary Barra he makes it clear that it was not him that purchased the stock. Also, It's only about a $1.5 billion position, so it would not be anywhere among his strongest positions
    Apr 22, 2015. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors' Financial Efficiency Ratios Have Decreased, But The Stock Price Is Flat [View article]
    Im long GM but lots to disagree with here. Gm at $36 is attractive in my view but GM is not worth 15x earnings and none of the auto companies are. As far as Warren Buffett goes, hes made it clear that he was not the one that invested in GM, but one of his deputies.
    Apr 20, 2015. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment