ur2smrt4me

Bail Out Money Driving the Stock Market?

isn't the mechanism what Bob English described in this article posted to SA on September 18? seekingalpha.com/artic...

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

dept of agriculture has people in every state because there are rodents in every restaurant... someone has to go out and count the droppings

you think I'm joking but I'm not -- that's seriously what they do (among other things)

the ones in D.C. keep busy writing regulations

Celebrating the 'Recovery': I'm Disgusted

Ben Bernanke:

"Our forecast is for moderate but positive growth going into next year. We think that by the spring, early next year, that as these credit problems resolve and, as we hope, the housing market begins to find a bottom, that the broader resiliency of the economy, which we are seeing in other areas outside of housing, will take control and will help the economy recover to a more reasonable growth pace."

--November 8, 2007

(thank you John Hussman for this timely reminder)

Thursday's Warning Signal

yes! UUP is what you want if you believe the dollar will go UP

On Aug 21 11:30 AM CCRider wrote:

> Isn't UDN a Bear fund betting against the Dollar Index (Short)?

Goldman Sachs: No Global Financial Espionage Story Here

didn't you hear? December 2008 was canceled due to lack of interest


On Jul 06 10:00 PM pitchingpennies wrote:

> I don't see what the fuss is all about.
>
> Wasn't all this thoroughly explained in the GS December 2008 month-end
> financial statements?

Competitive Devaluations to Spur Gold- Richard Russell

I would argue that inflation, especially in the price of fuel and food, scares politicians as much as unemployment. There is an inverse relation between the price of gasoline in the US and the president's approval rating.

Commercial Real Estate Is Plunging

Zymogenetics (ZGEN) here in Seattle expanded into a second building two or three years ago. They've been through two rounds of layoffs since then, the latest cut amounting to 1/3 of the workforce. They are now trying to get everyone back into one building.


On Jun 27 10:28 AM MadScientist wrote:

> The company I work for has recently reduced its workforce to the
> point that they no longer need a secondary office building they had
> been renting for years. There has also been a move to "cube farms"
> for entry level employees that have also reduced the need for extra
> office space.
>
> Result? Vacant spaces for CRE that are not likely to be filled until
> this recession/depression turns around (maybe in two years?) Hope
> they can hold on through the acceleration of such vacancies, but
> I am concerned that most CRE is too leveraged to survive.

The Undercurrent Behind Goldman Sach's Expected Record Bonuses

now if only I could figure out a way to delete my comment. :-)

The Undercurrent Behind Goldman Sach's Expected Record Bonuses

Trillions? I think you mean billions.

Mass Layoff Events Continue Accelerating

thanks Tiny -- it's been at least 12 years since I took physics -- and I am unconventional :-)


On Jun 24 03:56 PM TinyTim wrote:

> 2smart-
> not disagreeing, but:
> the conventional physics definitions are-
> velocity is the first derivative of position/displacement wrt time;
> rate of change of position. negative would be backing up
> accel is the second deriv of position/displacement wrt time; rate
> of change of velocity. negative would be slowing down (deceleration)
>
> "jerk" (actual engr term) is the third deriv of position/displacement
> wrt time; rate of change of acceleration. neg jerk would cause one
> to be pitched forward.
>
> Tyler- "continue accelerating" is not redundant. In this context,
> it just means the number of layoff events per month (rate or velocity)
> is STILL increasing ("picked up"). If the layoff events per month
> were constant for 2 or more months, then picked up, you could say
> "started accelerating" or just "accererated".

Mass Layoff Events Continue Accelerating

I should add that if your acceleration becomes negative your speed will decrease (it's not accurate to say that if acceleration decreases, speed increases more slowly - this is only true if acceleration remains greater than zero).

Mass Layoff Events Continue Accelerating

If you continue accelerating, your speed (velocity) increases. If you stop accelerating, your speed remains constant. If your acceleration increases, your speed increases faster. (And if your acceleration decreases, your speed increases more slowly.)

Acceleration is the first derivative of velocity. Change in acceleration would be the second derivative.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Thanks for the COW chart & comments. Livestock can't be stored and it's got unique risks not shared by other commodities. I thought it would be a good contrarian move to buy into the swine flu panic selloff. On second thought I should have bought HOGS instead.

Natural Gas: The Next Big Thing

UNG is based on natural gas futures *and swaps*

"In the UNG’s case, however, the growth has been so large that in order to avoid a regulatory clampdown on its futures positions the fund managers have been forced into the world of over-the-counter swaps. Accordingly, the fund’s swap positions are now 2.6 times larger than its future ones."

see the original article for more details:

ftalphaville.ft.com/bl.../

disclosure -- long UNG (this may change very soon)

Bear Market Rally or New Bull Market - How to Profit Regardless

We know, we know, we have read it 1943 times.


On May 11 04:16 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> My favorite strategy that optimizes risk and returns is through globalist,
> smartist, large cap, high growth stocks like MOS POT MA V GOOG AAPL
> RIMM that benefit from a falling dollar and rising core prices. A
> buy & hold approach of these stocks can yield superior returns.