Mayascribe

Battery Investing for Beginners, Part 2

From an investing standpoint, John, I don't understand why/how your debaters continuously ignore how the cheap stocks are outperforming the cool stocks, almost by orders of magnitude. May the distant future be replete with battery operated cars powered with green electricity pumped into lithium or other cool-type batteries. But for now, and the near term future, and this is a wild guess, some 200,000,000 to maybe in the next few years, 1,000,000, maybe 2,000,000--because of new potential fleet development--cars will still be running on gasoline, powered by lead acid batteries, as compared to alternative battery powered cars. Again, this is a guess, because there is a surge in NiMH powered cars. Still, the numbers anyway you calculate them, there are and will continue to far more cars currently on the road and being produced that are being powered through conventional batteries.

What I'm gathering is that more than a few commentators in your columns I've been reading since July '08 are writhing and screaming about how you ignore all the potentials of the future (I was one of them back then). Yet, it is apparent to me, other than the very kind Don Harmon, that no one is putting serious money behind their beefs. If they have, you have more than proven to this investor, that their money is languishing.

Our government, through it's recent generous awarding of billions to the battery sector underscores how important batteries are for national security reasons. But what goes into the batteries (REEs) is far more important. That China controls 97% of all the world's REEs scares the bejesus out of me.

For your pro-lithium readers I suggest they check (AMLM). Possibly, a within-the-USA answer to where lithium will come from. But that mine is still three years out from "possibly" producing lithium for batteries.

(That's the way I'm playing lithium, and (ALML) was one of the very few stocks up in yesterday's market evisceration; up another nickle today)

Battery Investing for Beginners, Part 2

Don: I only read the first sentence of your comment. Matters not what followed, to me. I've read pretty much every one of your knowledgable, informative comments. I KNOW you're a good guy, participating in a GREAT idea. I'm all behind you and so hope you win out. Yet...and...

...However, your first sentence is a little out of touch. As in...ever hear of Johnson Controls?

PHEVs and EVs: Plugging into a Lump of Coal

John: Good article for you to check out by Dian L. Chu, "The Alternative Fuel and $300 oil."

You can find it in the "Macro" section of SA.

Alternative Energy Storage: Cheap Outperforms Cool

engstudent: Thanks for the links. Walfram Alpha search engine is a marvel!

As for the algea link (thanks again), I'm wondering if that conference was privy to OriginOil's latest technological leap, as the announcement of the separation process occured a month after the conference was held. Feasability or cost competitiveness of algae has been the issue for years, but this new technique, or process, is something I want to keep my eye on, especially as the CEO stated he expects production for industrial usages to commence in two years.

Another "cool" technology like Ener1? Or, hopefully another clean technology that can join the club of realistic business concepts that can eventually rid the world of gross over dependence on oil.

Alternative Energy Storage: Cheap Outperforms Cool

Almost forgot, John. Check out Origin Oil's (OOIL) corporate website. I know it's not in the Energy Storage Sector, but when you see how quickly this company can turn pond scum, algea, into petroleum, well, you gotta see it, to believe it.

All I have to say is that Chevron is looking into this dramatic yet simplistic technology that, if cost effective, could have a dual impact on global warming and the oil industry itself. I promise the one minute video on Origin Oil's home page will leave your mouth slightly agape.

Alternative Energy Storage: Cheap Outperforms Cool

Ahh! Looking forward to them! You know I enjoy that stuff, too.

With the S & P having 50 stocks that jumped 100 percent or more during the last month, the markets, which are testing their upside technical thresholds are, in one way ripe for a significant pullback.

And yet, billions of sideline money is pouring in every month from independent investors and most recently, mutual funds. The hedgy shorters and double and triple leveraged short ETF's are at a time where they have quite a battle to beat this market down to the March 6th lows.

That's why I feel safe that no matter what downturn we may soon experience, I feel confident that a long term position taken now (being five to ten years) will pay off huge down the road. Especially in your fav Energy Storage plays.

Alternative Energy Storage: Cheap Outperforms Cool

Just had to end my previous comment with a pleonasm!

Alternative Energy Storage: Cheap Outperforms Cool

Glad you are evolving, pal! You and your commentors have been a complete joy to read since last July. Yet, the ongoing frenzied debate, for this follower, grew tiresome in a kind of pleonastic way over the past couple of months.

This article lends proof to the pudding that your cheap vs. cool, or lith-ion vs. lead acid thesis has panned out magnificently (and I believe will continue to do so)!

The above charts are the easiest you've yet created for a lay follower to figure where to park their investment dollars for the long term in the Energy Storage Sector.

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Thanks for the offer to read my "again-in-progress" manuscript, when done. Over the too many years I've been trying to get this book done, I've had at least a hundred people read parts or all of it, several whom are world renowed archeolgists who have thought enough of my work to stay with me when they were in town, or invite me into their homes for dinner and discussion, or, when researching in the field, invite me to sit down with them and enjoy a drink. It's humbling to have once been a cheesesteak flipper to now have as friends the top tops in their field from Harvard, Upenn, Yale, and many other elite institutions I can count as friends.

I park you in their company.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John: Do you remember me a couple months ago saying (I'm paraphrasing) that we would never again see Exide at these prices? That was November 19th. Here were are again. Unbelievable!

But what really scares me today much more than any news reading or on the tube, is the line drawing of today's DOW: If it were a ski slope, it would be "green" this morning, only turning to an easy "blue" this afternoon, with a tiny "black" run @ 2:20 until 3:00. We should be having double diamond drops!

The conclusion is that we are still not near capitulation, yet. That town down there is fogged in.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John: According to JP Morgan, the Infrastructure & Science part of the stimulus plan is $111 billion; this would include the Smart Grid. The Energy part of the stimulus is $43 billion; this would include not only the Smart Grid, but also automotive batteries.

The good news is that efficient batteries land soundly in both parts of the stimulus package. I'm sure there will be no overlapping, but if there is, I'm also sure you'll find out.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

Though unrelated, I find this funny. When the USA has a lot of pork in its budget, it's bad. But when China has a lot of pork in its budget, it's good!

(China, with a quarter of the world's population, consumes over half the world's pork. Part of their stimulus package is earmarked toward pork!)

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

Jack: Though I'm not in any way near as knowledgable as John, JCI will most definitely participate in a huge way in Obama's stimulus plan. Milwalkee based JCI is currently building a new plant, specifically for manufacturing batteries. They also, through the purchase of York International last year, have a nice presence in environmental energy systems for buildings, something Obama is huge on for government offices and schools. JCI is a great company, but it is more percieved as a car related company, than a "green" company. Keep an eye on that stock, though, it will rebound, though, sadly not up to $44 a share when I was naked cartwheels down Main Street just two Octobers ago!

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

Another positive article, John. Previously I've written here that I believe batteries are the last thing to add, whether it's to a car, or a solar plant or wind farm. My current problem is the "ordering" lag. I do a lot of short term trading, so this influences how I behave/think about what to do with this sector.

(What I did do during the last couple of weeks, is sell off a most of my Exide shares at a loss, and then flip the remaining money into a gold mining stock--New Gold, Inc. (NG), which I then sold off last week, and then flipped it back into Exide on Friday at a much lower cost average price. I ended more than covering my losses, and now have Exide at a much better "pyshological" entry point. Though, I will add that with Cap gains taxes in mind, I really came out about even in doing this "flip.")

Although, maybe a spike here and there will happen when the news is revealed as to which stocks get the grants, I believe it will only be when the orders happen will the stocks go up and stay up, no matter how bad the coming weeks/months are going to be.

I think the future of the Energy Storage sector is going to go crazier than the Academy did over Slum Dog, kind of like how gold has been doing since last November 19th. Especially those, as you pointed out, domestic pure plays that recieve grants rather than loans.

I'm looking forward when these battery stocks start to rise. Right now I'm slowly accumulating in the "step down" approach, as all indications are, the market is going to continue downward, driven, I believe, by insurance companies, and the massive commercial real estate cratering that's yet to occur.

Thanks again, John, for keeping up battery geeks up to date!

How to Determine Value of Alternative Energy Stocks

Loren: That Yahoo! article you linked to was only a two-year sharing of information! A study for cying out loud! No money involved. Hardly, newsworthy. Not even worth a day trade.

One more thing: I would much rather have an author own a stock he's wrting about, than one who does not. Too much of a percentage for me here on Seeking Alpha do authors write about stocks and not own them, or, even worse, don't even include their name with the article.

Further, now that John has been writing here for nearly seven months, I still haven't seen Axiom budge much. This fact does not, in my mind, bother me whether or not he promotes Axion too much, or too little. I would much rather be able to read what he thinks, than not.

How to Determine Value of Alternative Energy Stocks

Loren: Ease up a little on the swearing!

The Energy Storage Sector has a HUGE future, not just in the USA, but worldwide.

John Peterson has come a long, long way since his early articles. I'll admit that I was one of his early bashers (especially when John wrote about a 100K car wrapped around a 75K lith battery). But what I've learned through his hard, and very informative work has cleared my investment path in this sector to one of day trading to now long term investments.

Further, I would wager 100-$2.95 shares of Exide that no writer here on Seeking Alpha responds with John's alacrity, clarity and enthusiasm.

I've been day trading since July 2nd, last year. I became wildly intrigued about Beacon Power's unique storage capabilities. I even owned Beacon shares back when it was flitting around $1.00 to $1.35/share, when Beacon was opening its New York site.

But, John convinced me this company has financing issues. Result: I sold Beacon for a small profit, and I'm DAMN glad I did, giving it's crawling back recently to a mere 45 cents/share.

Rather, Loren, if you follow this stock so closely, turn us on to the upcoming news. This forum is here to help us make informed trading decisions!

What I would very much like John to write about, is not just the pure energy storage plays, but also stocks that will be involved with Obama's stimulus plan regarding where and how batteries interact with the grid, whether it's solar, wind, tidal, geothermal, etc. Further, although John has done his best to sum up the wolrd's lithium resources, I would also like to know more about how other minerals, such as zinc, will play out in this sector.

A few of the stocks I'm thinking about are: Switch and Data Sytems (SDXC), Polypore, Intl. (PPO), Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR) and Trinity (TRN).

And, then there's cold fusion...

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Now let's talk about gold mining stocks!