Alpha Apprentice

http://alphaapprentice.blogspot.com/

7 Comments

    • Crude Oil Finding a Bottom? The Great China-Olympics Canard [view article]
      I am an oil Bear at these levels but $20/ barrel is almost unfathomable even at 0% world GDP growth.

      To add to Kunst comment, China at full throttle on domestic consumption won't bring us above $150       Aug 23 11:55 AM
    • Crude Inventories: Largest Weekly Build Since March 2001 [view article]
      I think the market is becoming to bullish on China. This large build and no sell-off is proof.

      Everyone says that this decrease in demand is thanks to the slow down in China to clean up the air before the Olympics. Did everyone forget that the rest of the world, including emerging markets like Russia, Brazil, and India, have NOT slowed down because of the Olympics? To add, China did not close down production country wide but only in Beijing and a few other small factory and port cities. Beijing is less than 2% (1.7% by my math in 2007) of China's GDP.

      Rest of my thoughts are at here:alphaapprentice.blogsp...       Aug 20 02:26 PM
    • First Solar: Pre-Earnings, Street Optimism [view article]
      The quote of "Ries adds that his checks find the company made “just a modest increase” in solar module efficiency in the quarter, but that greater improvement is expected in the September quarter."

      Is very misleading. Efficiency increases are very marginal. The company reports:

      We are currently on track to achieve our 2012 goal of 12% conversion efficiencies. This represents an increase of approximately 0.5% per year," spokesman David Erhart told Electronics Weekly. "In Q1 2008 our average efficiency was 10.6%."

      Technically, the stock has been in a wide range for since April, every since insiders started selling $17+ million of stock!

      Fundamentally, I think their model is moronic! Why would you create cells as a form of ALTERNATIVE energy with a scarcer resource (CdTe) than what you're trying to replace (Crude Oil)

      For the risk tolerant, this is a great short (put spread) candidate before earnings.

      alphaapprentice.blogsp...       Jul 30 03:13 PM
    • Boeing: Ready for Take-off [view article]
      Typo. Jul 22 04:00 PM
    • AGCO: Combines May Be The Story in 2008 [view article]
      I am bullish on AG from an average cost basis of about $52.

      I see AG as an incredible margin expansion story. DE is the "AAPL" of the agricultural business but AGCO has so much potential to keep increasing its margins, earning multiples more EPS vs. sales growth.       Jul 22 12:02 PM
    • Boeing: Ready for Take-off [view article]
      Dutch, you are correct. My wording was a little off. This buy back will take place over years.

      I meant to say that, they buy back is equivalent to 14% of the outstanding shares at today's valuation.

      Thanks for pointing it out.       Jul 22 11:18 AM
    • Game On for Activision Blizzard [view article]
      The announcement of Diablo III and Starcaraft II by Blizzard cannot be emphasized enough. Fans have been actively hoping (i.e., setting up online petitions) for over 8 years to get a sequel to this games. I do not know of any other game to have such clout among a fan base.

      Although, the release date is not yet available, this two games have millions of fans-many of which still play Diablo II and Starcraft.

      They are destined to be blockbusters and could, at least collectively, out sell Grand Theft Auto IV.       Jul 18 10:20 PM
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