DHJ

5 Comments

    • Attention Locusts: The Party Is Moving to Merrill and AIG [view article]
      Hi Baby, this is a very high-risk environment and there is no telling what might happen next or how market participants might view what happens. Have you thought about what you would do if the market full-on crashed? It has happened before and it could happen again.

      I have heard many traders of 20 or 30 years say that this is the hardest market they have ever traded and the most volatile. My personal feeling and advice is that this is no market for retail investors. Why not wait till the smoke has cleared and re invest if you have to? If your broker is not protecting your hard earned capital - something that can be quite challenging given this environment - then you need to be in cash.

      I say this because however far down your account is at the moment it can go down further - trust me on this. If you feel that the market is going to rebound from here you could tell your broker that if your account goes down another 8-10% (or whatever you are comfortable with) you want out, but that if it starts to rebound then to hold on and not sell.

      The most important thing to remember is that investing is risky and I would say investing at the moment is higher risk than usual. It is very important that you define your risk by deciding how much more you are willing to risk or loose in order to make some gains from here. My 2 cents.

      Hope this helps       Sep 12 05:43 PM
    • Unintended Consequences of the Fannie / Freddie Bailout [view article]
      "and the free markets are a little less free"

      Its simple really.

      By definition government intervention in markets = not free markets.       Sep 08 05:08 PM
    • No Point in Celebrating Record Labels' Demise [view article]
      I think one assumption that is made is that the old model delivered you the artists you love and you would not be able to enjoy them without it. The opposite could be true and you may be enjoying these artists despite the old model or you may not be enjoying many other artists today that you have not heard of because of the old model.

      While some people enjoyed the economic fruits of unjust systems in the past like child-labor, slavery, or pre labor union industrialization, it did not mean that those systems should not have ended or that people should not have cheered their demise. I am not saying that the record companies are evil in the same way that these unjust economic models are, I am just trying to point out that just because a business model produces something that is near and dear to our hearts, or even something that is essential for everyday life, it does not make that system necessarily worth saving or replacing.

      Musicians make music for the pure joy of it. I know because I am one. Don't confuse the delivery system with the music you love. While the current system may favor one kind of music, the demise of that system (the record label system) will not cause the music if favors ("pop" music, whatever that is) to disappear entirely if there is an audience for that music. If that audience was somehow artificially created though the marketing of the major labels and once the majors are gone there is suddenly no demand for this music, then that is because there is no audience for it without billions being spent on marketing.

      Most artists would make music for free. In fact most musicians make large investments both financially and in terms of time before anyone "discovers" them. Perhaps the demise of the majors will encourage people to broaden their horizons a bit and discover all the amazing music that is out there. I am not just talking about some weird independent band but great pop and mainstream music that is just not being pushed for whatever reason. Perhaps the lead singer doesn't look "marketable" and the majors won't touch them. Don't assume that the music people are hoping will get heard if the majors should stop dominating what gets heard and what doesn't is all strange and esoteric, its not.

      I think the old model worked, but it worked like pre minimum wage law factory's worked. It would be nice to see a model that empowers the artists more just as workers today are more empowered than they were when they first started working in factories, at least in much of the world. The demise of the record labels does not guarantee this happening, but their power being diminished is key and I see no need to prop them up.

      Being a musician and knowing people who worked in "the biz" I can say that from my point of view the old model is extremely inefficient. It rewards neither the people who make the music or the fans but instead the major labels and the people who work for them. Sure some music has gotten made as a byproduct of this system that otherwise would not have gotten made. A lot of this was "by mistake"
      in that some A & R guy thought this band was going to be the next big thing and they got to record a few amazing albums before they got dropped because they never "delivered the goods" financially.

      I feel this is for the most part backwards looking. Yes overall I would say that I am glad we had the major labels in the past rather than didn't have them. The question now is should we still have them and what role should they play. They unquestionably have a huge catalog of amazing music available to pull from and I would be surprised if they did not figure out some way to keep profiting from this fact alone, even if they never record another artist again.

      The landscape has changed dramatically. When I started making music one could not easily record or distribute music on ones own. Now you can practically do it without trying. This is not to say that there are not some new hurdles for up and coming artists, perhaps there are even more then before. However I think almost any artist - perhaps with the exception of someone who is the direct product of the present system - would choose a system that empowers them as artists more. Sure the covers and marketing may not be as slick, but its the music that counts, at least thats what us musicians like to think. Perhaps people will start to see more of a one to one relationship between their patronage and the artists they love and want to support? If you download so and so's music for free they the quality of the product they deliver to you may suffer since you are now stealing directly from the artists themselves and not the "evil record label."

      Its time for something new. If the quality or quantity of music falls off steeply I am sure Adam Smith's invisible hand will figure out a way to compensate artists enough so that they can afford to make music of a better quality. However, I think the landscape has changed forever, and will continue to change, in such a way that it will shift power away from these dinosaurs and into the hands of the people in which it rightfully belongs, the artists.

      Sorry for the long response, I had a lot to say obviously, and I don't have time to edit this, so please forgive any typos, grammatical, or punctuation errors.       Aug 31 04:04 PM
    • An Investor's Guide to Bear Markets [view article]
      Great article! Aug 28 09:06 AM
    • Volatile Market Conditions: To Stay Profitable, Make Quick Trades [view article]
      These markets are having a hard time making up their mind and then they are having a hard time sticking with the decision they've made. Some other writers on Seeking Alpha have suggested that perhaps the US government's plunge protection team (the real name escapes me) is actually in the markets buying equities or futures which would explain some of the erratic sudden rallies that seems to come out of nowhere just as the market seems poised to drop off a cliff. I have been burned so many times by these kinds of moves which is why I like what you said about making quick trades. This has been the key to me finally becoming profitable trading this bear. While I was often right about the direction or turning point, I was not right for very long. Taking quick profits has solved this problem. Jul 18 10:27 PM
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