C. Fischer

How Much Natural Gas Remains in the USA?

Mark,

Why are you long UNG? You're going to get killed on the forward roll every month and trading costs every month. It is not appropriate for a long term investment, which you seem to be using it as. Why not just invest in one of the big natural gas producers?

CIT Prepares to File for Bankruptcy

Tough sh*t. Your lender is insolvent. Find a new one, if your business is viable. It's not my job (as a taxpayer) to help you.


On Jul 12 10:54 AM superbee wrote:

> This will Kill small business, for example the furniture market runs
> on CIT credit. If you wanted to have as many people as possible lose
> their jobs and have a domino effect this is the very best way.<br/>
>
> This will hurt small businesses, like mine, that hires 300 people
> in a small town.
>

As GM Goes, So Goes the Nation (Part 2)

303820,

It would be great when GM workers like yourself figure out that your labor isn't worth $75/hr in salary and benefits, and you learn that you aren't "entitled" to squat. Why do you think you deserve 3 times more than the average American worker? I don't make anywhere near that much, and I have a masters degree.

If my company goes bankrupt, I will lose my job and the government will not bail me out. Most of the country, save the financial sector, is in a similar situation. Why do you think you're entitled to get MY tax money to save YOUR job?

Your company has squandered the goodwill of generations of Americans. You've lobbied against increasing fuel standards and pushed gas-guzzing SUV's down the throats of consumers. You've put out such crappy cars during the 80's and the 90's, and such BORING cars since then, that no one wants to buy them. Your market share has nose dived. And it's no one's fault but own.

As GM Goes, So Goes the Nation (Part 2)

Just when I thought most SA authors where undergraduate finance majors and mediocre traders attempting to talk their own books. Excellent article. Bravo.

Textron's Selling Point? Dividends

I don't disagree about Textrons businesses; I'm also long Textron here at around $6/share, but I think your reasoning is very wrong and very dangerous.

In Textron's current financial position, dividends are totally meaningless. I'd be surprised if they aren't suspended completely or vastly reduced at the next declaration date. If and when they are ever begin again, and at what level, is a total guess - but based on the current environment and Textron's debt position, it could be years before TXT delevers enough for management to feel comfortable paying out the 200MM+ in FCF the dividend represents . TXT is not a GARP stock since it isn't growing; a deep value play? Maybe.

Textron has a very real chance of having a liquidity crisis on its hands in the short term that could lead to its bankruptcy. It is a capital intensive business with a huge, massive pile of debt. If you have any doubts about this, look at the bond market. There is lots of TXT debt available with nearly 20% YTM on several issues. That doesn't happen unless there is a very real chance of bankruptcy.

I'm personally selling covered calls against my stock position, which are selling at a very high premium right now (March 7.5 calls, 50 cents out of the money, are selling for $1.05, or over 15% of the stock price.) I think if TXT does need to file, it won't be a while now.

Textron's Selling Point? Dividends

Don't judge an article by its title?

"But the most compelling part of the Textron story is dividends. As of right now, the recent drops in share price have lofted the company’s dividend yield to 15.1%. That means that regardless of what happens to the stock price in the near term, as long as the company continues to operate as it has been, you can expect a double-digit annual return paid quarterly in cash. That’s Textron’s selling point right now."

Did the editors write that too?

Textron's Selling Point? Dividends

The premise of this article is one of the more foolish I've seen, it looks like yet another SA author who has never formally worked in finance nor in any financial capacity whatsoever, yet thinks they know enough to write about it.

I agree that I think TXT is a good play at this level, it has a lot of great businesses with deep economic moats. However, it could be in real trouble with its financial arm and a chapter 11 filing possibility, where the equity holders are wiped out, is not that far fetched. However, if you think TXT will survive and not file chapter 11, there will likely be a substantial gain in the stock price in the coming years.

However, to suggest the stock is a buy based on its dividend yield is laughably foolish.

Sell Altria During Market Hours

The author here doesn't really seem to grasp some basic financial concepts. The rationale behind selling is because it went up a few bucks in a short period of time, and if you annualize that return it seems impressive, so sell?

Also, he doesn't seem to understand that the ability to pay a dividend really has nothing to do with reported EPS and everything to do with cash flow.

"Unexpected Weakness In Home Sales"

mbeget1,

One of the most telling signs of someone being wrong about something (aside from spelling and grammatical mistakes, of which you have several in your first sentence) is that is that they attack the original authors credibility ("what is your careers") instead of offering a logical counter argument (which, in this particular case, there really isn't one.)

Brokers add almost no value, probably a negative value for anything but the most novices of homebuyers (because both buyer and selling brokers are primarily interested in closing the deal as cleanly and quickly as possible, usually without regard to price.) On a $250,000 house, you really think the little paperwork you do is worth $15,000? I know, this is where you go into saying that its split between both agents, so you're only looking at $7500, and your company gets half of that (your fault for letting that happen, not mine) and that you have to pay taxes on the $3750 (oh gee, really?) and that after all that you only get $2000 so you're not overpaid. This is what we call a logical fallacy.

I agree with the above posters. You're drastically overpaid, unnecessary, and the internet is going to eventually do to you the same thing it did to full service stock brokers and term life insurance premiums.

Oh, and if we're going to criticize career paths (hey, you started it!) well let's just say that most residential brokers I know were not at the top of their classes or hold many impressive degrees, etc.

Caris & Company's Quarterly Preview: Internet Companies

Tim,

Just wondering how you worked out your FX numbers, especially with GOOG showing a 25-35MM gain from it. I see the Euro being being down only slightly (somewhere around 1%) from Q2 to Q3 - this accounts for 25% of Google revenue - but the pound (UK is somewhere around 15% of GOOG revenue) is up 2% against the dollar Q2 into Q3.. so I'm seeing currently translation effectively being flat Q2 to Q3...