commoinsense1211

Citi: Expect Strong Economic Growth Worldwide in 2010

does anyone rally care what citi thinks? or trust what they say?

Unemployment, Retail Numbers Don't Add Up

the credit card industry is being screwed? maybe if the cc companies didnt raise the rates to usurious levels people could pay them and pay them off.


On Nov 09 05:26 PM Mark Anthony wrote:

> You asked some good questions.
>
> Some part of the retail sales are inelastic demands. For example
> gasoline. You need this many gallons of gasoline to drive to and
> from work, and you just have to pay. There is no way to cut corner.
> For another example, toilet papers. I don't think any one can cut
> that. Haven't heard any one who stop using toilet paper and use just
> water. Have't heard any one who use less squares of TP each time
> either.
>
> Maybe it's pent-up demand. You decide to say money, so each time
> you go grocery shopping you decide to buy less of the items you need.
> Buy a 6 roll pack of toilet paper instead of a 12 roll pack. A smaller
> bottle of detergent instead of a bigger one. But the consumption
> hasn't really gone down. So when you run out of stock you end up
> buying even more to re-stock.
>
> Another explanation is the credit card industry is being screwed.
> As credit card companies hike rate to unbearable levels, some people
> may just decide to spend their cards to the max limit, and then go
> default on them. This too can create an artificial consumption level.
>
>
> There is no way that consumers lost jobs and have less income, they
> are saving up more money, but managed to pay higher credit interest
> and also pay down the debts, too, and at the same time have the same
> amount of money to consume.

Existing Home Sales Going Strong

what's not mentioned here is the inventory that the banks are allowing to go unreported as defaulted. And the next wave of alt-a defaults. add that to the above mentioned currency intervention and.......

and sorry guys, I have a hard time trusting any graph the NAR publishes.

U.S. Housing: More Homes in Delinquency than for Sale

solution, break up the big banks, prosecute the ceo's,clawback the bonuses, mark to market mortgages, then do nothing. rinse and repeat.


On Nov 19 01:57 PM Tony Petroski wrote:

> Mr. Mark. Cheer up. It pains me to see the we are all Keynesians
> now crowd despair at this crucial junction.
>
> The "solution." Do nothing. Get out of the way. The free people
> of America can handle it from here, but don't place any more hopes
> and changes in their path.

Bob Toll: 'Yesterday's Sub-Prime Is Today's FHA'

what he says about people not chaning and wanting more may be true but for the middle class that's just not realistic. And if it does happen it will be because of some revolutionary development that will put us back on the growth track or another bubble. aside from that bob toll can build more luxury homes for the truly wealthy but the wanna be's arent going to get their mcmansions.

given what he said about fha loans it looks like were headed for another bubble and a bubble that could burst sooner rather than later.

Jobs and the Market Rally: The New, New Balancing Act

actually what we'll get is the worst of both worlds. we may see higher taxes and high unemloyment but we dont get the 8 weeks vacation or the free health care. there's plenty of blame to go around with both parties.. It's the large corporate influences that are sticking it to us where the sun doesnt shine. I've been to europe (and france) many times and most seem pretty happy with their lot. not a lot of violence and angry drivers, everyone lives longer and spends more time with their families as opposed to working 60-80 a week just to keep your head above water or keep up with the joneses. so your point is what?


On Nov 18 11:05 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> bdc The US is turning into Europe. Think backbreaking taxes, chronic
> high unemployment, government involvement in everything, less innovation,
> and much lower growth, in exchange for a social safety net, more
> debt, and better coffee. That is the message the markets told us
> by retreating to the 6,000 handle in March, levels not seen since
> 1996, and down 54% from the 2007 peak. Equity prices have shrink
> to multiples, in line with permanently lower long term growth rates
> of maybe 1%-2%, a shadow of the 3% rate seen for much of this decade.
> Hint: that analysis gives you a stock market lower than here. Perhaps
> this is what aging sclerotic economies are supposed to look like.
> Once Ben Bernanke stops spiking the punch with ecstasy and Viagra
> by raising interest rates, this is where the resulting hangover could
> leave us. If someone is holding a gun to your head and you must buy
> American stocks, only select names that are really foreign stocks
> in disguise. Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Oracle, (ORCL), Cisco
> (CSCO) all get 60%-80% of their profits from overseas, where up to
> 90% of the real economic growth will come from for the next decade.
> Commodity, agricultural, materials companies, and their ETF’s also
> fit this picture. As for me, I think I’ll move to Tahiti and live
> off of coconuts and freshly speared fish, wearing only a loin cloth.
> Anything is better than becoming French.

Why the Economy Isn't Improving Much

Not my day(to eat)? god bless america

Why Warren Buffett Loves Wells Fargo

I have no issue with banking general but why would anyone invest in one of the larger banks that we've bailed out. Have they replaced managment or jus gotten much smarter from their mistakes?

If This Is a Recovery...

what policies are hammering small business today? none of this legislation has been implemented and the tax rates are the same as they were during the bush administration. business sucks because banks are not ledning, big business is downsizing. not current admin policies.


On Nov 15 01:57 PM Econ 1 wrote:

> So market valuations can be made to look as though they are within
> a reasonable multiple (depending on your time frame for one thing)
> but where is the earnings growth going to come from in the next 3-4
> quarters? Cost-cutting in the form of firing half your work force
> is not a sustainable path to growth.
>
> I just checked the Brookings Institute and corporate tax revenues
> projected for 2009 are down over 50% over 2008.
>
> My question is how can anyone say this market is fairly valued (after
> this rally) after taking into account that business revenues (as
> measured by proxy against collected tax revenues) is HALF of what
> is what a year ago? Publicly traded companies are not the whole economy.
> Small business is getting hammered by this administration's policies
> and social engineering.
>
> Where will earnings growth come from? Please don't say more government
> spending--because these revenues are down even WITH what few dollars
> have made it to the street from the horribly inefficient, wasteful,
> and corrupt stimulus pipeline.

Buffett and Gates at Columbia – The Markets Have Bottomed!

not sure I see why they're so optimistic. the financial instutuions are calling the shots and robbing our future. the middle class is disappearing and their jobs are heading offshore. congress is bought and paid for and now apparenlty /unfortunately so is our president. what are warren and bill seeing I am not?

Analyzing the U.S.'s Four Largest Banks

barring another real estate buble or clean energy buble do you really think these banks will ever be "over-reserved" ?


On Nov 09 10:20 AM Tack wrote:

> The $136B in reserves is a huge wildcard in the equation. Contrary
> to making it difficult to make profits, the reserves, themselves,
> represent the greatest source of potential future earnings.
>
> Assuming the economy continues to improve, at some point it will
> become apparent that the companies are over-reserved, and when that
> happens, reserve reversals will have a far greater impact on earnings
> than other invested capital. This is because when reserves are released,
> the capital, itself, passes back through the income statement in
> addition to being freed up for other more risk-based investments.
>
>
> So, the reserves, themselves, represent potential pure profit, and
> not just an increase in available capital.

Keep an Open Mind About the Unemployment Number

your comparisons to 1983 are bogus and misleading. The early 1980's were the beginning of the deficit and credit bubles. there were no alt a mortgages about to be reset, we had a manufacturing base and productivity gains from tecnology were just starting to unfold. comparing then and now is either irresponsible or ignorant take you pick

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

ar eyou kidding, other than health care what exactly is it that obama is doing that is anyway marxist? he hasnt raised taxes and he's supporting large corporations, especially banks. get off the pipe.


On Oct 17 10:22 AM The Geoffster wrote:

> I am not a conspiracy theorist but I do believe Obama is a Marxist.
> He does not have the dictatorial power to implement the change he
> believes is necessary to redistribute wealth and equalize outcomes
> but he will use the existing levers of power to incrementalize his
> goals by fostering socialized medicine and punitive tax policies
> on the nation. When voters are worried about their jobs and income,
> they will set aside their liberty for comfort, especially when they
> think someone else is paying for it.

Jobs Still Disappearing, But Confidence Is Returning

I dont think the stimulus was well spent/allocated. but the argument that decreasing marginal rates would have increased jobs in the us is equaly false. marginal rates without any real demand would have just been more money in the pockets of the rich. trickle down economics is just a euphemism for the rich peeing on the heads of the rest.

Charlie Gasparino: Another Crash 'Has to Happen Again'

not a republican congress? which side of the aisle was phil gramm?


On Nov 06 08:25 AM gebby wrote:

> sorry but i dont see gasparino as a credible reporter. he never
> fails to knock much needed regulation and robert rubin. he has a
> market fundamentalist republican philosophy. and it is this philosophy
> which is the starting point for all the financial troubles. remember
> the sacings and loan bailout under reagan? and then under gwbush?
> come on. knocking regulations that were designed to protect the
> banking system from abuses and then rubin associated with the highest
> reaches of the democratic party. also i am sure fnm and fre and
> bill clinton, not a republican congress.