Jim Punkrockford

Hedge Fund Tracking: Barry Rosenstein's Jana Partners, Q3 2008

i was digging around looking for info on some crazy ticker, and who do i find has a post up on it? whatupppp, Folly? you still have on your bond pairs trade? keep up the good work bro. later

The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust

I think we almost have it. The key will be demand. And demand has been strong due to high food COST, not high food demand. As soft commodities have come down, the demand for fertilizers will drop off. Also I agree that the risk reward right here is very bad in the short term. Disclosure I am short MOS.

UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again

they aren't selling at $1,000 per tonne yet. they are raising their prices yes but the market has yet to say if they are willing to pay it. the smallest drop in crop prices and farmers will cut back fast. they don't need potash. cheaper ferts are available but due to high prices right now they are willing to pay up for potash. this trade seems way more risky to me than you seem to think it is.

Some Odds & Ends: Google, Mosaic, Central European Distribution and the VIX

I don't know Market Folly, I think MOS might have broken out to the down side. well at least it is a good risk reward trade right here. stop out above 131 but downside looks like 90ish. also the VIX as an indicator is broken, people use more dynamic hedges nowdays. just my opinion