GMI1982

Cleantech's Solar Conundrum

Interesting questions but if you understand anything about new technology commercialization, you'll realize that both CIGS and CPV are progressing through final field validation. CPV is MUCH BETTER than any solar technology in areas of high DNI, and the reliability will not be matched in deserts or temperature-sensitive climates. CIGS is the next-generation CdTe, just like CdTe was the next-gen Silicon.

Every project that requires external financing, i.e. where the project depends on a separate investor, is experiencing setbacks. Just talk to SunPower, SunEdison, First Solar, et al. The only new projects going forward quickly are those where vendor or a partner provides the capital up-front from their own stash of cash/assets.

Analyst: First Solar Reaches Grid-Parity Milestone

This article is pure marketing BS. If First Solar sold this deal for $3.17/W, it was either a loss leader or fraught with miscalculations. This would be more like be First Solar's total cost with modules at $1/W plus another $2/W+ for installation. Given the nature of the technology, FSLR has higher installation costs as many more modules are required per acre given the lower efficiency. Also, the modules are tied together using DC, and this further increases the losses. Other than a-Si, CdTe is the worst performer from an area/MW and install cost perspective.

The numbers do not appear to reflect system inefficiencies either. The calculation of Wp are at the module level, and there are significant losses at the system level as well as yearly degradation. Pacific Crest does not know how to do calculations on LCOE, that is for sure. The real LCOE needs to include land costs, O&M expense, management costs, grid connection fees, etc. If FSLR has truly reached grid parity, you'd see MANY more plants being built today...

The acreage comment is totally misleading. If you look at the original estimate for the project, it was about 8 acres/MW. See this link: www.semprageneration.c.... c-Si with a tracking system is closer to 6 acres/MW and other leading utility-scale technologies, e.g. CPV, are below 5 acres/MW.

Bottom line, in terms of grid parity, CdTe and a-Si are well behind c-Si and CPV particularly in areas of high DNI (solar irradiance) like the Nevada desert. Flat plate c-Si produce 160W/m2, CPV = 250W/m2, and a-Si is well below 100W/m2. With these kind of inefficiencies at the cell level, you cannot possibly produce systems near grid parity today...

A New Use for Solar Energy - Highway Right of Way

Would like to understand your data support that thin film solar cells produce energy at grid parity? If you are talking $.04-.05 per kWh, consistent with Pulverized Coal Plants, then you are way off. If you are talking about $.20/kWh that is cheaper than price of electricity in many expensive areas of the world, then I could understand your comment.

Valero Energy's Insane Valuation

It's due to the revenue and profit cuts forecasted in 2009 - VLO is looking at 35% reduction in revenues.... pretty steep. But this is the time when folks step-up and realize significant returns over the next 2-3 years.

A Sunny Outlook For Emcore - Barron's

Recent valuations by Merriman and Jefferies are more like: Fiber optics business at $5-7/share and the satellite solar business at $1-2/share, or business worth $6-9 without consideration for terrestrial solar. At $3.70, this stock is an absolute steal. Every $100M in solar biz adds $500-$600M in valuation on a comparables basis or about $2/share. As the deals mentioned come fruition, you can expect revenues close to $1B over the next couple of years. What do you think this will do to the stock price?

In the Cat Bird Seat: A Review of Emcore’s Business

Brad, this is definitely one of the BEST reviews I've seen to-date for companies in the renewable and telco space. A couple of minor corrections. First, Solfocus sources from both Spectrolab and Emcore. See the recent article in Compound Semiconductor. Second, Spectrolab ONLY supplies cells but Emcore offers a range of options as they have a complete, vertical offering for terrestrial solar power. Emcore is unique in that they are the ONLY solar vendor with offerings at all points in the solar power value chain.

Solar Grade: A Silicon Revolution

The cell cost is not critical measure for solar deployment, especially those for utility plant scale. It is the system cost. Compare CPV solutions, i.e. Emcore, to those based on silicon, thin film, etc. And NO OTHER technology vendor offers a 20 year warranty.

Solar's Warm, But Not Hot - Barron's

Interesting that you don't mention, Emcore (EMKR), the leader in Concentrated PhotoVoltaic technology. They offer system solutions now that used up significantly less acreage that thin film or silicon-based solar cells, and their cost is about $.37/watt for the cells in 100MW quantities or about $4/watt at the system level. This is by far the lowest cost of all solar cell technologies available today. With efficiencies expected to increase from 39% to 45% plus in 2 years, you will see the cost closer to $1.80/watt and the kWh cost cheaper than the $.10-.20 being paid today for coal-fired power.