hbball

The Myth of Abercrombie & Fitch

If anything, your article proves that Same Store Sales aren't always a valuable metric, especially when ANF earnings increased every year mentioned, until the meltdown.

Abercrombie Q4: EPS Smoke and Mirrors

Thanks for the reply and clarification of the charts, PG. Reason I was asking about timing of the article is if it was released after the markets and after-hours trading are closed, then nobody can really act on the analysis anyway, so why not wait for the real numbers.

AJB7: your comments are also similar to comments that have been made for years. Parents hating the store is a good thing. Teenagers and college kids don't want to shop where there parents shop.

Abercrombie Q4: EPS Smoke and Mirrors

Cash is only down $8 million or so and the marketable securities you keep mentioning are listed at plus $110 million or so.

As for your comments on "continuing weakness in same store sales", your own chart shows that SSS have declined by less each month from November to January.

Your capex prediction is off by, what, $240 million?

These numbers are only based on my quick scan on their earnings release and your article, but I'm not writing actual articles for an investor web site. Why don't you write these reports after earnings are released instead of immediately before?

Questioning the Relevance of Abercrombie

The Motley Fool has been make these kind of Abercrombie will become uncool arguments for years. I remember reading an article from another source during the last recession that clothes from Walmart were the new cool among teens. Abercrombie increased earnings per share during the last recession, despite consistently declining same store sales. But the bigger picture is that Abercrombie is just starting an international expansion. I've been in six of their stores in Canada, and also their London, England flagship store. The stores are typically crowded, and during the holiday season had longer lines than American Eagle or Aeropostale. I see people of all ages wearing Abercrombie all over Toronto, including in the trendy Yorkville district. Management has said on the conference calls that their Canadian stores do 3 times the sales as their American counterparts. This is because the brand doesn't share the image history with U.S. customers outside the U.S.