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dweebster

dweebster
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  • Regulatory Approval In China Lifts Uncertainty Around Nokia's Emerging Market Potential [View article]
    I am not a analyst, but wouldn't it be worthwhile writing about the networking and telecom business. Isn't that going to be the main value driver going forward?
    Apr 14 09:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Bubble Time: A Study Of Peak PE For The S&P 500 [View article]
    With all respect, the participation of the company in the market merely represents the opportunity to buy or sell that company and it's future earnings. I suppose there is some "problem" with every line of thinking, it's a question of trade-offs and of course philosophy. My line of thinking has worked for most of the greatest investors of all time, including Warren Buffet, who consults the market only on price. Point taken, however, that if "the market" is sky high and overpriced, it does indeed become much harder to find good buys despite lots of study. I would also suggest that "the market" is more and more important, the shorter the investment horizon. Short horizon, more of Mr. Market's nutty impact even on good companies. Short term, the market is a voting machine reflecting popular moods. Long term, it's a weighing machine sorting out successful enterprises from failures and earnings-challenged phonies. Time spent guessing about the future of the "economy" is time that could better be spent finding decent individual enterprises worth taking ownership in. Speculations about the global economy, and similar forecasts are so much rubbish when compared to the track record of companies like DE and UNP that have been around for over 100 years. Ditto crop forecasts by the way. I take your point though, investing is about philosophy in the end, and beliefs about the long term. All the best.
    Apr 12 10:41 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Bubble Time: A Study Of Peak PE For The S&P 500 [View article]
    I don't buy "the market" I buy the company. I would urge readers to do the same. Mr. Market goes up and down, but well-run companies with strong business models and pricing power survive and prosper despite all but the most severe downturns. The problem with this approach: you have to do your homework, and that takes hours and hours of research, something most folks don't do for one reason or another. And you have to be prepared to accept responsibility for yourself, not hope that "your broker" will stay up nights working for you (he won't, he's just a reseller). Cheers.
    Apr 11 04:58 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Further Research Into Whole Foods Market [View article]
    Not sure what your comment is intended to convey, but it is unsupported by any link to further information, so I must disregard it as an apocryphal web story. In any event, your comment appears a bit amateurish if your intent is to indicate that WFM is somehow conspiring to mislabel food, or delay compliance with (your personal) agenda for food labeling. In the business world, timelines are much longer than for posters at Seeking Alpha. Product lines, sources and suppliers and packaging must be reconfigured on long schedules, and supplier contracts may extend beyond the next Seeking Alpha posting. Welcome to the real world, dude.
    Apr 7 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Deere & Co. [View article]
    And, keep in mind folks, DE is best in class. Always try to own the best in class company, at a reasonable price, of course. DE fits that concept very well.
    Mar 28 09:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Further Research Into Whole Foods Market [View article]
    I question the assertion of the author that because WFM does not release data he prefers, that this somehow leads to a low score on a rather arbitrary index. Whole foods has most transparently created an unique store environment with incredibly good chain-of-possession data posted on fresh items which is there for anyone to visit. WFM and it's stores make concrete whole new way of food shopping expectations and trust. Yes, older stores might need environmental improvements re: energy efficiency. But the bottom line is that WFM created the environment (and set a very high standard) in which Trader Joes's and Sprouts for example can exist and prosper. With no disrespect to these fine stores, WFM is still far and away best in breed. The face of food retail is increasingly going to resemble WFM, not current product mixes and and retail styles of outfits like Albertsons (great employees, by the way) and SWY with its unhappy employees, made so because they have (until now at least) been thoroughly dis-empowered by management that deserves to be removed by Cerebrus. It will be very interesting to see if Cerebrus can actually do anything to improve SWY and save it. Good luck with that. It's going to take much, much more that putting spotlights on the vegetables. Our sympathies to the employees at SWY who deserved better over the last ten years of sad, sad public-private-public -private again machinations. I find myself wondering, how is Cerebrus planning to make all the debt SWY has go away? cheers
    Mar 28 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere Chooses Not To Raise The Dividend; What's Next? [View article]
    OK, great points. All the best.
    Mar 11 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introducing The $100K Young Professionals Portfolio [View article]
    Wow, I can't believe I read this. So, are there old professionals? Young non-professionals? Why would "young" professionals matter at all except that I assume there is a very long investing horizon? Is a dentist a professional, but a dental technician not a professional, and thus is to be discouraged from investing? Aside from the marketing spin, I can't see much investing thought behind this. The idea appears to be that young professionals are interested in sports, etc and movies and computers. So one needs to build a portfolio full of what those same people, the "young professionals" would go out and buy someday? So after they pick up a BMW down at the dealership, they go have a cup of coffee at Starbucks and then shop for Nike's? This has to be the dumbest investment concept I have seen in a long time, full of admittedly good companies, but excluding so many less expensive companies that are growing. Well, I suspect this won't get much uptake with the Seeking Alpha crowd. Maybe this is a put on? Wouldn't surprise me at all.
    Mar 10 07:34 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere Chooses Not To Raise The Dividend; What's Next? [View article]
    OK, but one can make too much of dividend increases viewed from a partial-year perspective, especially given the broader prospects of the company and the history of shareholder-friendly conduct by management, especially the buybacks. Still, I understand and respect your concerns. I guess, depending on circumstances one might want cash instead of deferred earnings or total return in the future. If cash is the most desirable element the telcos, European equities and some utilities offer higher nominal yields. But one is usually trading off total performance in many cases, and frequently in such companies the long term total return is degraded to below even the market average. I would rather, for my own accounts, have a growing company with lower dividend but higher performance based on re-investment of the dividend and price appreciation tracking top line earnings upward. cheers
    Mar 10 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere Chooses Not To Raise The Dividend; What's Next? [View article]
    DE is a classic Buffett stock, with the possible exception that labor unions are involved in the workforce. It is a stock where fast money should indeed feel most unwelcome. RE: the dividend, it is far more tax efficient to return wealth to shareholders by means of stock buybacks than disbursements of cash as dividends. Most farm equipment is a non-optional item to the business, so purchases of machinery can only be postponed or deferred, not skipped. Granted there is competition out there. Still, DE is plainly best of breed, selling at a low multiple. The global positioning of the company, as well as the diversification that includes both construction and agriculture are strong positives. I wouldn't "bet the farm" on rain versus drought, and I wouldn't sell Deere based on weather predictions either. For those interested in "fast, fast relief", may I recommend FB, which actually has a great future if you can handle the ups and downs. cheers.
    Mar 9 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs climbs 5.8% as Q4 results, firm guidance may deter breakup threats [View news story]
    Friendly reminder of what you all know: Short term, the market is a voting machine. Long term, its a weighing machine. CLF seems a vintage example of this phenomenon. I don't weep for the shorts. In fact, I dance on their graves . . . .
    Feb 14 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts weigh in on J.C. Penney's sales track [View news story]
    I recall a time not too long ago when one could by MCD for about the value of the real estate . . .
    Feb 4 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nokia Has At Least A 20% Upside Potential [View article]
    Oh, it will be fine on the day that NOK becomes just a boring, dividend-paying, engineering company, with a plan etc etc.
    Maybe then, for cheap thrills, I'll start worrying about JCP. Now there's an outfit that needs some help! Maybe Seppo, you can can save that one . . .
    cheers
    Jan 31 06:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating J.C. Penney At 2-3x EBITDA [View article]
    Folks, the Buffett episode was old-style department store as I recall. JCP lives (or dies) in a different world, that of the national chain. I find it hard to picture that JCP deserves to die, so to speak. I have purchased just lately a number of very good products at very fair prices at JCP, including a Navy pea jacket with great design ideas, shirts and some great cotton bed sheets. The employees seem very dedicated, and management is certainly engaged with efficient business practice. The store I visited in Fort Collins, Colorado seemed very clean, orderly and well stocked. My take on this situation is that JCP occupies a very real niche between the throwaway world of Walmart, say, and Macy's, the latter of which is very good, but maybe a bit over the top for a lot of customers in terms of price and atmosphere. Dunno. Holding my shares and thinking of adding. I would like to see some relief for the "common man" in this economy, although JCP might survive without an explicit boost of that sort anyway. I would be very surprised if management did not come up with some creative ideas this year, to get customers back.
    Jan 29 06:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks shakes up management structure [View news story]
    I'll be sticking with Starbucks as long as Schulz is in the driver's seat.
    Jan 29 05:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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242 Comments
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