Mark Sigal

App Mania: The Big Business of Downloads

My personal belief at this point is that the 100K milestone is the point when Apple should shift tactics and focus on something more meaningful than mere quantity, as subsequent numbers become less and less meaningful, and we get it, "There's an App for That."

Otherwise, the 'magic' starts become clinical and cold, which is very un-Apple-like, something that I blogged about in:

iPhone’s 100K Apps is the New '7-Minute Abs'
bit.ly/rJkEC

Check it out, if interested.

Mark

Apple F4Q09 (Qtr End 9/26/09) Earnings Call Transcript

Personally, the most impressive part of the earnings was the Mac side of the story, where growth is outpacing the rest of the market handily 17% to 2%.

Plus, when you understand how much of that growth is coming from Portables, you understand why the Tablet is inevitable, something that I blogged about in:

The Right Stuff: Analysis of Apple’s Q4 Earnings Call
bit.ly/RJAPA

Check it out, if interested.

Mark

Apple Gets a Mapmaker, But Where Does that Leave Google?

While I am a strong believer in the inevitability of Apple/Google evolving into Frienemies in the months ahead (see: The Chess Masters: Apple versus Google - bit.ly/IHPmW), I think this is more a case of Apple adding geo-locative DNA to their bench and continuing their innovation around the Maps app, which while powered by Google Maps under the hood, is nonetheless developed by Apple in terms of look, feel and supported workflows.

RIM Could Lead a Price War - Watch for the Fallout

On some level, isn't it obvious that failure to drive a robust software platform around RIMM devices is what has killed their growth story?

In other words, the "we're doing land grab, and will re-coup margins on software and services" belies the fact that that dog only hunts if you HAVE a viable software and services strategy.

And by viable, I mean passes the sniff test relative to the iPhone Platform (either by doing as good of a job or solving a different problem).

For more fodder on this point, check out my post 'iPhones, App Stores and Ecosystems' (bit.ly/xcP8T)

Cheers,

Mark

Why Eric Schmidt Had to Go

At the risk of tooting my horn, in March of LAST year, I wrote a post called 'The Chess Masters: Apple versus Google' that essentially asserted two things.

One that Apple and Google are without peers in terms of their ability to build products that cross the once impenetrable boundaries between PC, mobile, media and Internet segments.

Two that given their respective mammoth ambitions, ‘friends’ Apple/Google are destined to become ‘frienemies’ ala Apple/Microsoft (circa 1990).

Looks like destiny is being realized. 

Check out the post if interested:

The Chess Masters: Apple versus Google:

bit.ly/P9HJs

Mark

Apple's Tablet: The Kindle in Technicolor

Think of this pitch this way:

Steve Jobs: "Book and Music industry. You are getting commoditized because you have no differentiated platform for extending/re-inventing your product for the online age. We just so happen to have a set of tools that have proven compelling to the tune of 1.5B downloads, field-tested across 65K apps and with a current footprint of 46M devices."

Music/Book Industry: "There is no way we can re-create that value proposition, and we already see the writing on the wall with Amazon. If they are successful, they will be telling us how much money we can make or worse, go direct to writers and musicians, and design us out of the equation. How do we get started?"

This is the consummate 1+1=3 for a segment that is otherwise facing a 1+1=<2 future.

For more fodder on this one, check out:

Old Media, New Media and Where the Rubber Meets the Road
bit.ly/zwTw8

Cheers,

Mark

Why Apple's iTouch Tablet Will Become Its Flagship Product

Hey Jason,

One key variable in thinking about this product as "flagship" is that its release is the forcing function that requires Apple to define its "matrix" thinking between hardware form factors and software forking decisions (e.g., iPhone OS, Mac OS, hybrid OS, download anything from anywhere, exclusively limit distribution to/from App Store), not to mention the service layer and developer tool interconnects between same, a topic that I blogged about in:

Apple, the ‘Boomer’ Tablet and the Matrix
bit.ly/DwziS

Check it out, if interested.

Mark

Don't Expect Big Things from Apple Today

Those that are interested in a more thorough analysis on the LT prospects for Apple, check out my post:

Analysis: Apple June Quarter Earnings Call
bit.ly/vbi9q

There's good, bad and ugly in it for everyone. :-)

Mark

Apple Q3: Revenue, Earnings Beat Estimates, 5.2 Million iPhones Sold

Personally, I thought that one of the more interesting points in the call was when Cook referred to iPod, iPod touch and iPhone as "pocket" products.

To me, this suggests that there is some segmentation/re-classi... of their various products planned that is probably timed to the tablet device rollout, something that I blogged about in:

Analysis: Apple June Quarter Earnings Call - Keeping it Real
bit.ly/vbi9q

Check it out, if interested.

Mark

Twitter Acquisition Mania: Google Rebuffed, Is Apple Trying Now?

While I am skeptical that Apple would make a deal like this, and it’s always silly to comment on (rumored) price tags on pre-revenue companies, I will say this; there is a logical scenario for Apple to acquire Twitter.

First off, the status update message has emerged as the ultimate social gesture, and we all know how Apple is all about driving consumer engagement.

Quantitatively speaking, it is something that Facebookers, MySpacers, tweeters, LinkedIn users do 1-10 times a day (whether they think of the activity as status updating or not).

Now, if you married the simple atomicity of the update message with the ability of the messaging client to process “payloads” like pictures, videos, songs, contacts, locative data, documents, URLs, etc., you have a recipe to turn Apple's MobileMe service into its original moniker of “Exchange for the Rest of Us,” all the while having a core messaging infrastructure that is lightweight and portable enough to run on desktops, iPods, mobile devices and TVs.

Here’s a post that I wrote, which provides a straw man analysis of what such an infrastructure might look like:

"Right Here Now" services: weaving a real-time web around status
bit.ly/i40h

Check it out if interested.

Cheers,

Mark
--
follow me via twitter @netgarden

Apple Q2 Earnings: Another Blowout Quarter

While I have no idea what the stock will do, I do think that this is one of those cases where no game-changing news on part of Apple (in the call) is actually GREAT news, and I blogged my analysis in:

ANALYSIS - Apple Quarterly Earnings Call: When No News is GREAT News
(bit.ly/2DmNZ)

Check it out if interested.

Mark

Chips and Dips; Apple's Mysterious Increased iPhone Order

Specific to Apple (AAPL), a big piece of the story that is not even fully understood by the market is the impact of Apple opening up the 30-pin connector to third-party hardware accessory makers in the 3.0 release of the iPhone OS/SDK.

Not only does this promise to make the $2B accessory market for iPod look embarrassingly small, but it promises to catalyze growth in verticals, something that I blogged about in:

iPhone 3.0 and the Woz: Everything Old is New
(bit.ly/7hLJY)

Check it out if interested.

Mark

Is the iPhone SDK 3.0 Really All That?

Zach,

Let me give you another way to look at this release. It's what I call the "block the kick" strategy.

What's a block the kick? It is an effort to do such a good job of persuading your core constituency (in this case, developers, consumers, carriers) that any perceived momentum of the competition (read: Android, Palm Pre) pales in comparison to your own that you block the competition's nascent momentum in its infancy.

Looked at this way, Apple is just running up the score, lest the competition find its footing with developers, something I blogged about in:

Analysis of iPhone 3.0 SDK Developer Preview
bit.ly/ANdMz

Check it out if interested.

p.s., the iPod accessories business is a $2B industry so the "so what" on that front wrt iPhone/iPod touch opening of access to 30-pin connector is an equal or better potential once all of the vertical segment plays are factored in.

Cheers,

Mark

11 Take-Aways from Buffett's Annual Letter

If Buffett wants to do penance for his 2008, I'd like to nominate him for Recovery Czar. After all, he is the gold standard in terms of being smart, reasoned, clear/understandable and straight in all things finance.

Plus, he is appropriately folksy; he could explain concepts/strategy to the American people in plain English and be a public face for the Recovery team, as rhetoric matters in times like these.

Who better than Buffett to help restore confidence in our financial system (and provide sanity check on key decisions behind re-work of same), something I blogged about in:

Warren Buffett for Recovery Czar (bit.ly/joMx7)

Check it out.

Mark

Apple's Real Growth Rate in 2008: 49%!

My simple net out is who looks better than Apple on a long-term basis in terms of differentiated products, diversified revenue sources, depth of product pipeline, quality/depth of management team, operating margins, profits, cashflow, cash reserves and absence of debt?

This is something that I blogged about in 'How do you like them Apples? Apple's Earnings Rock!':

thenetworkgarden.com/w...

Includes links to other articles evaluation Apple's products, business and strategy. Check it out if interested.

Mark