bigtime99

Brazilian Bovespa Sinks: Expect More Weakness in the Near Future

You don't want to be layering on shorts AFTER a 10% commodities-led correction, I'm afraid. That's stupid money.

Why I'm Exiting Canada, Brazil and Australia ETFs

Um, what if technical analysis is voodoo?

The Long Case for Abbott Laboratories

Ditto. 17.8X is raging bull market scenario I'm afraid; something that will never be accorded 2009 earnings.

How Today’s 2.46% Dividend Yield Could Destroy Your Wealth

You can't state that dividends on the S&P in 1982 were averaging 6% withut mentioning that interest rates were double digits...divs needed to be that high to attract capital - who would invest in risky stocks at that time when you could invest in the money market and make 10%?
Today money market funds are yielding 1% and therefore S&P dividens yields look rather juicy although numerically lower...

Time to Reenter GE

I love how everybody on this board claims they bought in below $7, at the peak of the panic...
The truth is that the financing model for their industrials is a sound business; they got carried away in the consumer financing - and that is what is currently being radically downsized by Immelt at present.
So going forward you will have a green-focussed major industrial that will benefit from worldwide infrastructure build-out over the next 20 years, that responsibly finances their businesses by not getting carried away on the consumer side. Sounds like a good company to me. And cheap too.

Fairfax Financial: Now Trading Well Below Book Value

And unlike Berkshire, whom Prem has modeled his company and investment style after, they pay a dividend. About 3% last year but jumps around depending on earnings. Very, very good company to long term hold in my opinion.

3 Ideas for International Dividend Income Investing

What exactly is wrong with paying a percentage of earnings as a dividend as per Unilever? Would you rather have a climbing payout ratio and eventually an inability to maintain dividends down the road?

India Private Banks Comparison: HDFC a Clear Winner Over ICICI

Good analysis thank you. I've owned HDFC for 6 months. I bought it partially because it made the Barron's list of best managed foreign firms last year. I have been surprised at how well it has performed.

Geithner: A Fool with a Plan? And Is That a Bad Thing?

Uh-oh Kedrosky, you`ve set yourself up as a sky-is-falling self proclaimed commentator on the markets, you`ve levered yourself to the doom, and now it`s fading...you`re starting to see that you`re on the wrong side of the trade.
Got to start distancing yourself from Roubini et al. before your page views drop.
Bill Gross, who controls the bond market, calls this a `win-win`and said he would buy the assets.
15 minutes of fame turns out to be exactly that I guess...

Abbott Labs: Powerful Company with a Bright Future

"I have always been a strong supporter..."
You look about 20 in your photograph...

How GE Compares to Other Banks

Unfortunately, technical analysis is bunk.


On Feb 18 02:09 PM aarc wrote:

> 22thoroughbred,
>
> Resistance for GE on the monthly chart is 21.40.
>
> Expected recovery bounce for the US stock markets is late March to
> early April 2009 and most likely will end by Sept 2009 before the
> final run down usually called the capitulation sell-off that should
> end by late Nov to early Dec 2009. It is going to be a tedious a-b-c
> flat pattern on the weekly chart with Dow Jones expected to have
> a bear market rally from 6,800 to 10,500 range with higher probability
> of 9,700 (meaning 10,000 less likely to broken to the upside during
> the bear market rally). Bear market rallies usually range in 38.2%
> to 50% retracement of the last run down. It is impossilbe to know
> exactly where the retracement is going to end until the very last
> moment. For Dow Jones, the 3rd wave of the C wave started May 2008
> at 13,136 and should end by Mar/Apr 2009 at the 6,800 area.
>
> That means GE could be testing the resistance range $16.83 to $21.40
> by Sept 2009 assuming GE will be able to go down to $9.39-$8.43 range
> by late March 2009 before the bear market rally starts for a 38.2%
> to 50% usual retracement range of the 3rd wave of the C wave on the
> monthly chart where the C wave started Sept 2008. GE is an A-B-C
> zigzag pattern on the monthly chart which started August 2000. Equal
> move target is $3.06 projected Nov/Dec 2009.
>
> These are nominal ranges only. I assume nothing extra-ordinary should
> happen in the near future such as a major war errupting in Europe
> or a global stock market meltdown with consequences way beyond the
> capabilities of the G8 or G20 members to curtail -- or that the governments
> across the world finally decided to gang up against the impending
> severe recession and nip it in the bud with massive global recovery
> initiative programs thereby preventing what history usually repeats.

Forget GE, These Are the Industrials Investors Should Consider Owning

Immelt has said that GE capital is going to make money in 2009. That's pretty impressive in this environment. He's downsizing it appropriately. When the tide of the crunch turns, if he is smart he will expand it once again; going forward ROE will be far higher if he continues the model.

The structure of GE capital is different than a bank - they lend out to finance contracts for their own industrial products and projects. It is sometimes difficult to secure $10 billion for a new GE nuclear reactor, for example. They weren't issuing subprime debt to people who shouldn't own homes like BAC. Debt quality counts as much as quantity, and this is why they still hold the AAA rating. What is AIG's debt rating?
Furthermore, their leverage is 8:1 not 35:1 like Citi and some of the other offenders.

The future is bright for GE once the current recession ends. They are well positioned in areas such as alternative energy, and they are going to take a big piece of China and India's future infrastructure pie down the road.

GE is being punished like the banks and I think this creates a good long term entry.

Six Canadian Banks That Should Reward Long Term Investors

National Bank is the only one that has cut dividends in the last 100 years...I would buy the bigger banks instead, who won't be cutting and have enormous cash flows.

What Can We Learn from Buffett's Recent Put Sales?

What does that have to do with anything?

Canadian Dividends Faring Better Than Most, But Investors Are Still Worried

Canadian banks simply do not have the lousy loans on their books that american banks do. They are the strongest in the world, and subprime lending did not exist at any point north of the border. The banks are a good deal, paying the dividends that they do.