joes's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/229376/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/173408-discretion-and-financial-regulation-always-doing-the-wrong-thing?source=feed#comment-761955 761955
Just like our laws a flawed, for example we ban marijuana when all data shows that it is much safer than alcohol or tobacco.

The problem is the ability of shucksters to convince people that "this time is different" when is always is the same in areas that cause the problems.

High leverage investments always go bad in the total, but since they work early on at the individual level we get fooled every time.

The simplest advice is if it looks to good to be true is probably isn't true.

As for the assignment of characteristics to institutions, e.g. government is bad, bankers are evil, unions are corrupt, is a fools game.

An unregulated group of people will almost always do the wrong things when money is involved. ]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 10:11:03 -0500
Just like our laws a flawed, for example we ban marijuana when all data shows that it is much safer than alcohol or tobacco.

The problem is the ability of shucksters to convince people that "this time is different" when is always is the same in areas that cause the problems.

High leverage investments always go bad in the total, but since they work early on at the individual level we get fooled every time.

The simplest advice is if it looks to good to be true is probably isn't true.

As for the assignment of characteristics to institutions, e.g. government is bad, bankers are evil, unions are corrupt, is a fools game.

An unregulated group of people will almost always do the wrong things when money is involved. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173065-do-we-goldbugs-finally-have-your-attention?source=feed#comment-758965 758965
The idea that there isn't much left to be found is suspect also, Mexico has deposits of at least 16 tons at its Palmarejo mines alone.

The other big difference between the two commodities most detached from actual supply/demand constraints is that oil is destroyed when it is used whereas gold and silver are easily and cost effectively recycled.

When demands isn't driven by real human needs then supply isn't relevant, so emotional involvement becomes the driver.

As in homes and tech stocks this always ends badly, especially for those that hop on after a 500% increase in less than a decade. To you early buyers, congratulations and enjoy your success.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:09:32 -0500
The idea that there isn't much left to be found is suspect also, Mexico has deposits of at least 16 tons at its Palmarejo mines alone.

The other big difference between the two commodities most detached from actual supply/demand constraints is that oil is destroyed when it is used whereas gold and silver are easily and cost effectively recycled.

When demands isn't driven by real human needs then supply isn't relevant, so emotional involvement becomes the driver.

As in homes and tech stocks this always ends badly, especially for those that hop on after a 500% increase in less than a decade. To you early buyers, congratulations and enjoy your success.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171938-another-dip-in-the-earnings-beat-rate?source=feed#comment-749850 749850
The "game" has been going on for thousands of years, and its't about to change, and the people who get taken will continue to get taken now and then, while complaining about trickery when things go bad.]]> Sat, 07 Nov 2009 11:49:51 -0500
The "game" has been going on for thousands of years, and its't about to change, and the people who get taken will continue to get taken now and then, while complaining about trickery when things go bad.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170851-earnings-season-the-car-is-shiny-but-look-under-the-hood?source=feed#comment-744235 744235
Overall this looks like a typical, but very deep recession that was caused by the banking industries innovative approach to the automotive and housing markets by artificially lowering prices through financing. Now we have always inflated the housing market with the interest deduction, the leasing of cars was a fool's game as was the shift from LTV of 80-20 to 100-0.

how much of a drag that will be going forward remains to be seen but I like the chances of us getting back to top line growth around Q3-2010.]]> Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:20:28 -0500
Overall this looks like a typical, but very deep recession that was caused by the banking industries innovative approach to the automotive and housing markets by artificially lowering prices through financing. Now we have always inflated the housing market with the interest deduction, the leasing of cars was a fool's game as was the shift from LTV of 80-20 to 100-0.

how much of a drag that will be going forward remains to be seen but I like the chances of us getting back to top line growth around Q3-2010.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170419-how-bloomberg-fabricates-u-s-housing-numbers?source=feed#comment-740433 740433
I obviously don't enjoy guns as they make young kids into killers and old men into fools.

Everyone likes to search for the facts that meet our objectives, but that isn't a reflection on the field of statistics, it is a statement about the way that our brains work.

The


On Nov 02 10:35 AM Buckoux wrote:

> Yawn!
>
> After Nielson's exaggerated comment about America's "Billion Guns",
> I've become immune to most statistics, real or imagined. I just always
> assume that the MSM, Bloomberg and Neilson are ALWAYs wrong and search
> for the facts on my own.
>
> Hmm. A "Billion" guns divided by the population of the USA at 300+M
> ='s 3.33 firearms for every man, woman and child in America. Does
> the average family of four poses 13 guns? (note, I wrote, "average").
>
>
> Disclosure: I obviously enjoy firearm sports and even I don't have
> 13 firearms as an individual. I also don't invest in any of Nielson's
> hustles.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 11:32:20 -0500
I obviously don't enjoy guns as they make young kids into killers and old men into fools.

Everyone likes to search for the facts that meet our objectives, but that isn't a reflection on the field of statistics, it is a statement about the way that our brains work.

The


On Nov 02 10:35 AM Buckoux wrote:

> Yawn!
>
> After Nielson's exaggerated comment about America's "Billion Guns",
> I've become immune to most statistics, real or imagined. I just always
> assume that the MSM, Bloomberg and Neilson are ALWAYs wrong and search
> for the facts on my own.
>
> Hmm. A "Billion" guns divided by the population of the USA at 300+M
> ='s 3.33 firearms for every man, woman and child in America. Does
> the average family of four poses 13 guns? (note, I wrote, "average").
>
>
> Disclosure: I obviously enjoy firearm sports and even I don't have
> 13 firearms as an individual. I also don't invest in any of Nielson's
> hustles.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170154-oil-supply-and-demand-hardly?source=feed#comment-738367 738367

On Oct 30 02:46 PM bindlepete wrote:

> Your really don't understand this market. There are not often single
> elements driving any decision out side of a coin toss and even these
> can be subject to influence.
>
> Most decision are multifactorial from access to transport, price,
> currency fluctuations ones own perceived needs and on ad infinitum.
>
>
> As to the supply side " peak oil' is a reality and inconvenient to
> acknowledge in our political system. China recognizes it clear and
> simple but then they have a different pattern of decision making.
> As to the many bbls you see coming on line it will be more than eaten
> up by declines in world production. Yes, even at $80 a bbl. with
> our dollar going down the porcelain pot hole.
>
> Hey, it is finite and difficult to find and produce. The US does
> not control the world oil market it is a world market and the big
> locals have little interest in low prices and certainly not cheap
> as dirt alternative liquid fuels.
>
> China is out there producing auto and diesel fuels from cola in the
> form of dimethyl ether and methanol. That is not permitted here as
> it would break the oil companies monopoly on feeding our liquid fuels
> addiction. Again China has a different decision making procedure.
>
>
> Oil priceas will continue to bounce about but with a clear upward
> long term trend. Bet on it. I have and am not ashamed of my comfortable
> success.
>
> I know you want a simple explanation but sorry all questions do not
> have human answers. Richard Belman taught me this back in 1970 over
> looking the Pacific.]]> Sat, 31 Oct 2009 11:06:59 -0400

On Oct 30 02:46 PM bindlepete wrote:

> Your really don't understand this market. There are not often single
> elements driving any decision out side of a coin toss and even these
> can be subject to influence.
>
> Most decision are multifactorial from access to transport, price,
> currency fluctuations ones own perceived needs and on ad infinitum.
>
>
> As to the supply side " peak oil' is a reality and inconvenient to
> acknowledge in our political system. China recognizes it clear and
> simple but then they have a different pattern of decision making.
> As to the many bbls you see coming on line it will be more than eaten
> up by declines in world production. Yes, even at $80 a bbl. with
> our dollar going down the porcelain pot hole.
>
> Hey, it is finite and difficult to find and produce. The US does
> not control the world oil market it is a world market and the big
> locals have little interest in low prices and certainly not cheap
> as dirt alternative liquid fuels.
>
> China is out there producing auto and diesel fuels from cola in the
> form of dimethyl ether and methanol. That is not permitted here as
> it would break the oil companies monopoly on feeding our liquid fuels
> addiction. Again China has a different decision making procedure.
>
>
> Oil priceas will continue to bounce about but with a clear upward
> long term trend. Bet on it. I have and am not ashamed of my comfortable
> success.
>
> I know you want a simple explanation but sorry all questions do not
> have human answers. Richard Belman taught me this back in 1970 over
> looking the Pacific.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170154-oil-supply-and-demand-hardly?source=feed#comment-738365 738365
On Oct 31 09:10 AM invest4free wrote:

>
> good weekend reading: financeopinionss.blogs...]]> Sat, 31 Oct 2009 11:04:51 -0400
On Oct 31 09:10 AM invest4free wrote:

>
> good weekend reading: financeopinionss.blogs...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170154-oil-supply-and-demand-hardly?source=feed#comment-738359 738359
Oil and Gold also are favorites of speculators, because the the distribution of both commodities you have unusual and out sized influence from companies like Saudi Arabia and South Africa.

The Saudi have an especially inflated sense of importance, but when you understand that this isn't a country as much as a family run business with a total GDP of $600B (this is also the market cap of the two, only 2, largest US companies, Exxon and Microsoft) it is clear to see that the story is more interesting than the reality.

Letting the dollar slump for a while is fine by me as it pressures state controlled currencies like the Renambi and the Real to be exposed in the free market.]]> Sat, 31 Oct 2009 10:59:21 -0400
Oil and Gold also are favorites of speculators, because the the distribution of both commodities you have unusual and out sized influence from companies like Saudi Arabia and South Africa.

The Saudi have an especially inflated sense of importance, but when you understand that this isn't a country as much as a family run business with a total GDP of $600B (this is also the market cap of the two, only 2, largest US companies, Exxon and Microsoft) it is clear to see that the story is more interesting than the reality.

Letting the dollar slump for a while is fine by me as it pressures state controlled currencies like the Renambi and the Real to be exposed in the free market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169819-google-should-make-apple-beg-for-maps-navigation?source=feed#comment-737211 737211
But at the end of it collaboration is more critical now than in the 90's and therefore isolated platforms are not attractive, but Apple is walking the line better than most, by better I mean they are only 10% point from taking the top smart phone from RIMM.

Now phones aren't operating systems and it is certainly possible that Android will win over time but in the near term it is RIMM that is in trouble and with $30 Billion in cash Apple has some options.]]> Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:02:02 -0400
But at the end of it collaboration is more critical now than in the 90's and therefore isolated platforms are not attractive, but Apple is walking the line better than most, by better I mean they are only 10% point from taking the top smart phone from RIMM.

Now phones aren't operating systems and it is certainly possible that Android will win over time but in the near term it is RIMM that is in trouble and with $30 Billion in cash Apple has some options.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169488-george-soros-the-guru-outlook?source=feed#comment-735588 735588
He is vilified by the MSM and the right, and mostly ignored by the American progressives but to us Global citizens he is a hero that has donated Billions to feed, house and educate people about democracy.]]> Thu, 29 Oct 2009 11:42:19 -0400
He is vilified by the MSM and the right, and mostly ignored by the American progressives but to us Global citizens he is a hero that has donated Billions to feed, house and educate people about democracy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169488-george-soros-the-guru-outlook?source=feed#comment-735579 735579 tinyurl.com/5knb

The core difference is the idea of where the answers to the hard problems are to be found, Conservatives think that it has all been figured out already and if we find the right ancient text or history book, preferably a biography of some old white guy, the answers are there to be found.

Liberal progressive believe that what history tells you is that we need to keep evolving society, in fact according to Robert Wright, a leading modern thinker the structure of our world has favored the evolution of societies based on peace, commerce, reciprocal altruism, and mutual benefit.

Therefore figuring out new answers is more difficult and draws smarter people.

It is also why the left is harder to herd than the right, creating what appears to be chaos as opposed to the clean, lock step administration of conservative and other less tolerant government forms.


On Oct 29 09:29 AM p church wrote:

> If Soros is so smart, why is he a liberal?]]> Thu, 29 Oct 2009 11:37:54 -0400 tinyurl.com/5knb

The core difference is the idea of where the answers to the hard problems are to be found, Conservatives think that it has all been figured out already and if we find the right ancient text or history book, preferably a biography of some old white guy, the answers are there to be found.

Liberal progressive believe that what history tells you is that we need to keep evolving society, in fact according to Robert Wright, a leading modern thinker the structure of our world has favored the evolution of societies based on peace, commerce, reciprocal altruism, and mutual benefit.

Therefore figuring out new answers is more difficult and draws smarter people.

It is also why the left is harder to herd than the right, creating what appears to be chaos as opposed to the clean, lock step administration of conservative and other less tolerant government forms.


On Oct 29 09:29 AM p church wrote:

> If Soros is so smart, why is he a liberal?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169098-the-intrinsic-value-of-nothing-part-1?source=feed#comment-734305 734305
Austrian economics had it's day, and is coming back out of the woods along with Ayn Randians, all well and good but it is like using using a tube TV, you can but there are so many advances by people like Kahnemann, Beinhocker, Talib and Soros that explain the differences between perception and reality, biases and contextual distortions and other elements of uncertainty. Still a hard thing to understand and the mistakes that will be made in the future will prove that.

The current mistake you made in comparing the math of quantum mechanics is deciding that people are like atoms, and particles that if we could develop more complex algorithms we could predict markets and value wealth.

This is exactly the lie that got us into this mess, and several of the most recent such as LTCM and even the melt down of 1987, I love that math as much as the next guy but to apply it to economics has proven impossible as people aren't simple autonomous agents like Quarks and Gluons. They are more complicated.

People that want to deconstruct value into discrete elements are foolish in thinking that they can return wealth to something tangible when that hasn't been the case ever. The situation in the first transaction was determined by a complex set of individual understanding and contextual forces, and as the creators of Billions and Billions of SKU's alone to say nothing of services, e.g. no SKU for prostitution as an example.

Everyone likes to think that the answer is in the past when it is always in the future, we will repeat history without trying so let's move ahead and stop pretending that dead philosophers will get out of this mess, which is more about what we don't understand that anything we forgot.]]> Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:31:56 -0400
Austrian economics had it's day, and is coming back out of the woods along with Ayn Randians, all well and good but it is like using using a tube TV, you can but there are so many advances by people like Kahnemann, Beinhocker, Talib and Soros that explain the differences between perception and reality, biases and contextual distortions and other elements of uncertainty. Still a hard thing to understand and the mistakes that will be made in the future will prove that.

The current mistake you made in comparing the math of quantum mechanics is deciding that people are like atoms, and particles that if we could develop more complex algorithms we could predict markets and value wealth.

This is exactly the lie that got us into this mess, and several of the most recent such as LTCM and even the melt down of 1987, I love that math as much as the next guy but to apply it to economics has proven impossible as people aren't simple autonomous agents like Quarks and Gluons. They are more complicated.

People that want to deconstruct value into discrete elements are foolish in thinking that they can return wealth to something tangible when that hasn't been the case ever. The situation in the first transaction was determined by a complex set of individual understanding and contextual forces, and as the creators of Billions and Billions of SKU's alone to say nothing of services, e.g. no SKU for prostitution as an example.

Everyone likes to think that the answer is in the past when it is always in the future, we will repeat history without trying so let's move ahead and stop pretending that dead philosophers will get out of this mess, which is more about what we don't understand that anything we forgot.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168836-the-problem-with-iphone-killers?source=feed#comment-732471 732471
Windows 7 isn't UNIX, whcih in case it isn't clear is the only operating system we need, Mac proved that also.]]> Tue, 27 Oct 2009 12:15:32 -0400
Windows 7 isn't UNIX, whcih in case it isn't clear is the only operating system we need, Mac proved that also.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168503-how-apple-s-market-share-will-propel-stock-to-500-part-1?source=feed#comment-728362 728362
In addition they have the iPod franchise which MS attacked with Zune and the iPhone, which MS is watching with no clue how to respond.

Windows 7 is the big news from Seattle? Good luck with that.]]> Sat, 24 Oct 2009 12:03:32 -0400
In addition they have the iPod franchise which MS attacked with Zune and the iPhone, which MS is watching with no clue how to respond.

Windows 7 is the big news from Seattle? Good luck with that.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166470-why-android-is-gaining-ground-on-apple?source=feed#comment-716503 716503
It is very different this time around, they have the perfect balance of openness with a solid well supported platforms, something that Open Source products can't match.

Most OS projects have an erratic path of advancements and a much higher rate of bugs.


On Oct 15 12:37 PM Kanji wrote:

> You Apple people have your heads in the sand - history repeats itself.
> This is Apple MacIntosh (hot product, great features, premium price
> and demographic, etc. etc.) vs. WinTel PCs all over again! The same
> closed platform OS and sales channel strategy that killed Apple before
> (with early PC competition) and limited its market share (the premium,
> uber cool anti-ubiquity strategy) will hurt Apple again with the
> Iphone. Why are they making the same mistake twice and with new management
> (or is it same management with Jobs)?!? It will take some time but
> I would bet on anyone other than Apple, they are one mistake away
> from failure once again.]]> Thu, 15 Oct 2009 12:58:24 -0400
It is very different this time around, they have the perfect balance of openness with a solid well supported platforms, something that Open Source products can't match.

Most OS projects have an erratic path of advancements and a much higher rate of bugs.


On Oct 15 12:37 PM Kanji wrote:

> You Apple people have your heads in the sand - history repeats itself.
> This is Apple MacIntosh (hot product, great features, premium price
> and demographic, etc. etc.) vs. WinTel PCs all over again! The same
> closed platform OS and sales channel strategy that killed Apple before
> (with early PC competition) and limited its market share (the premium,
> uber cool anti-ubiquity strategy) will hurt Apple again with the
> Iphone. Why are they making the same mistake twice and with new management
> (or is it same management with Jobs)?!? It will take some time but
> I would bet on anyone other than Apple, they are one mistake away
> from failure once again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160262-gold-is-still-the-opportunity-of-a-lifetime?source=feed#comment-667235 667235
I’ll counter with the fact that stocks are merely in the middle of a countertrend rally within a bear market while Gold’s correction last year was a countertrend move within a bull market.

So why are you comparing stocks with Gold which you have declared as Money? ]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:16:47 -0400
I’ll counter with the fact that stocks are merely in the middle of a countertrend rally within a bear market while Gold’s correction last year was a countertrend move within a bull market.

So why are you comparing stocks with Gold which you have declared as Money? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158173-4-dividend-stocks-to-hedge-against-social-security-failure?source=feed#comment-647708 647708
The comment that it was the largest social program included as a negative is an example of how limited the conservative mind can be, it a pension plan for the entire country! Did you expect it to be small?

And to suggest the four stock approach you mention is a substitute for one of the greatest social initiatives of all times is just silly.


On Aug 25 11:09 AM cross wrote:

> On the plus side I appreciate your comments regarding Abbot Labs
> as I have a position in this company. It's a great long-term hold.
>
> As criticism, your comments regarding the solvency of Social Security
> are so far off the mark I really don't know where to begin. First
> of all, the bonds held by the fund were not issued by the govenments
> of Kosovo or Somalia, they were issued by the United States, an
> entity that has never defaulted on either its principal or interest
> obligations. (I'll simplify this for you: Real time, banks are not
> rescuing the Federal Government; the Federal Government is rescuing
> banks. Do you own a bank stock? Where did the dividend go?? I've
> heard, over the years that BAC was a rock-solid, take-it-to-your-grave
> investment) To suggest that the Feds will default on their obligations
> is just speculation on your part. Secondly, it is not a fund that
> needs to be permanently fixed. It just needs an occasional tweaking:
> raising the cap, raising the age, adjusting the COLA. All these
> things will need to be done, and indeed, have been done. It just
> takes political will. Third, it is not a static fund, it will receive
> 10's of trillions of dollars over the next thirty years of new money
> that will be used to partially fund benefits.
> What is the solution? Raise taxes, limit benefits.
> P.s. Gold??? At $900 + an ounce? I don't think so.]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 14:48:48 -0400
The comment that it was the largest social program included as a negative is an example of how limited the conservative mind can be, it a pension plan for the entire country! Did you expect it to be small?

And to suggest the four stock approach you mention is a substitute for one of the greatest social initiatives of all times is just silly.


On Aug 25 11:09 AM cross wrote:

> On the plus side I appreciate your comments regarding Abbot Labs
> as I have a position in this company. It's a great long-term hold.
>
> As criticism, your comments regarding the solvency of Social Security
> are so far off the mark I really don't know where to begin. First
> of all, the bonds held by the fund were not issued by the govenments
> of Kosovo or Somalia, they were issued by the United States, an
> entity that has never defaulted on either its principal or interest
> obligations. (I'll simplify this for you: Real time, banks are not
> rescuing the Federal Government; the Federal Government is rescuing
> banks. Do you own a bank stock? Where did the dividend go?? I've
> heard, over the years that BAC was a rock-solid, take-it-to-your-grave
> investment) To suggest that the Feds will default on their obligations
> is just speculation on your part. Secondly, it is not a fund that
> needs to be permanently fixed. It just needs an occasional tweaking:
> raising the cap, raising the age, adjusting the COLA. All these
> things will need to be done, and indeed, have been done. It just
> takes political will. Third, it is not a static fund, it will receive
> 10's of trillions of dollars over the next thirty years of new money
> that will be used to partially fund benefits.
> What is the solution? Raise taxes, limit benefits.
> P.s. Gold??? At $900 + an ounce? I don't think so.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157953-celebrating-the-recovery-i-m-disgusted?source=feed#comment-645800 645800

On Aug 25 02:11 PM milkchaser wrote:

> We could remedy that situation in 2010 and 2012.]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:48:38 -0400

On Aug 25 02:11 PM milkchaser wrote:

> We could remedy that situation in 2010 and 2012.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151795-fair-value-for-the-s-p-500-tell-me-lies-sweet-little-lies?source=feed#comment-606546 606546
Therefore you need to understand the business you are investing in or invest in the Index of your choice because you are optimistic that the largest economy in the world is going to make progress that will overcome the corruption in the long term.]]> Wed, 29 Jul 2009 10:32:16 -0400
Therefore you need to understand the business you are investing in or invest in the Index of your choice because you are optimistic that the largest economy in the world is going to make progress that will overcome the corruption in the long term.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151612-was-the-aig-bailout-a-goldman-bailout-by-proxy?source=feed#comment-605293 605293
They used fear tactics about the government seizing everything while directing and profiting from the "seizure".

Geithner should be fired and Herny Paulson should be in jail with Alan Greenspan. If we had the spirit that the citizens used to have it would be happening, Now we just play nice and get taken by thugs over and over.


On Jul 27 10:09 PM Common Cents wrote:

> I'm not sure it is worth making this into a "conspiracy" theory.
> My view
>
> GS was "smart" emough to buy "insurance" in a situation that they
> guessed might explode. AIG was "greedy" enough to sell it.
>
> The govt got caught in the middle.]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 13:54:08 -0400
They used fear tactics about the government seizing everything while directing and profiting from the "seizure".

Geithner should be fired and Herny Paulson should be in jail with Alan Greenspan. If we had the spirit that the citizens used to have it would be happening, Now we just play nice and get taken by thugs over and over.


On Jul 27 10:09 PM Common Cents wrote:

> I'm not sure it is worth making this into a "conspiracy" theory.
> My view
>
> GS was "smart" emough to buy "insurance" in a situation that they
> guessed might explode. AIG was "greedy" enough to sell it.
>
> The govt got caught in the middle.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151547-forget-the-1930s-we-re-reliving-1975-part-ii?source=feed#comment-605273 605273
Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of Creative Destruction describes the way that creative destruction,", a process in which the old ways of doing things are endogenously destroyed and replaced by new ways, is the process of adapting capitalism into a more inclusive system over time, e.g. Socialism.

Neither of these terms matter in the nurturing of the key to progress in his view, the entrepreneur, who take emerging technologies and processes to create the next class of businesses, and therefore workers.

He was a fan of the Gold standard back in the early 1900's when he lived, but in reading his work it appears that the common currency that is being discussed by China, India and others that would be issued by an IMF type of organization would provide the same linkage that gold did in the past.


On Jul 28 01:10 PM alajac wrote:

> 1975 is about the time the cybernetic revolution (an incredibly deflationary
> "creative destruction" force) really kicked in. that's why no prior
> time period (when we look back at this) will be found to have been
> "corresponsive". The economic resource distribution system that worked
> before (get a job, work, make money so you can eat, etc.) is not
> going to get the job done going forward. Companies can "hire computers
> and robotic machinery" and, after few years, have almost no labor
> costs, almost no health costs, almost no pension costs, no labor
> turnover costs, almost no training costs, etc. Us "useless eaters"
> are left with "flippin' burgers, changing bedpans, and stocking shelves",
> I know MANY bright, attractive college grads who are doing EXACTLY
> those kinds of jobs today and are glad to have them. The COMING DEPRESSION
> will not end until this problem is addressed and permanently handled.
> The solution is easy and can be found in many of my previous SA comments
> and also on my classmates.com profile and messages page (look up
> "alan jacquemotte")]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 13:42:17 -0400
Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of Creative Destruction describes the way that creative destruction,", a process in which the old ways of doing things are endogenously destroyed and replaced by new ways, is the process of adapting capitalism into a more inclusive system over time, e.g. Socialism.

Neither of these terms matter in the nurturing of the key to progress in his view, the entrepreneur, who take emerging technologies and processes to create the next class of businesses, and therefore workers.

He was a fan of the Gold standard back in the early 1900's when he lived, but in reading his work it appears that the common currency that is being discussed by China, India and others that would be issued by an IMF type of organization would provide the same linkage that gold did in the past.


On Jul 28 01:10 PM alajac wrote:

> 1975 is about the time the cybernetic revolution (an incredibly deflationary
> "creative destruction" force) really kicked in. that's why no prior
> time period (when we look back at this) will be found to have been
> "corresponsive". The economic resource distribution system that worked
> before (get a job, work, make money so you can eat, etc.) is not
> going to get the job done going forward. Companies can "hire computers
> and robotic machinery" and, after few years, have almost no labor
> costs, almost no health costs, almost no pension costs, no labor
> turnover costs, almost no training costs, etc. Us "useless eaters"
> are left with "flippin' burgers, changing bedpans, and stocking shelves",
> I know MANY bright, attractive college grads who are doing EXACTLY
> those kinds of jobs today and are glad to have them. The COMING DEPRESSION
> will not end until this problem is addressed and permanently handled.
> The solution is easy and can be found in many of my previous SA comments
> and also on my classmates.com profile and messages page (look up
> "alan jacquemotte")]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148526-washington-s-dilemma-this-isn-t-a-recession-it-s-a-collapse?source=feed#comment-596673 596673
1. The government is not some evil entity, is is who we elected and what we have seen in the past is that government policies are not the long term drivers of the economy. That is business's role and since we are going through a structural break it is going to be very hard, there is no easy money left, which was mostly being stolen by old white guys like the type that fill the roles of the republican and democratic positions in DC to this very day.


2. You see that the easy money is gone also, but have no faith that the American worker can emerge as a force once the rules are changed enough to allow small businesses to grow and forces large businesses to pay their way.

As for saving because of worry, that is the core reason anyone saves, because we can't know what is going to happen.

3. This the the racism line item, everything you say in your third point is biased and wrong.

4. I think we agree on point four that the creation of wealth is driven by ordinary people that are smart and willing to work, they can be of any color, religion or race, we may not agree on that based on your 3rd point but that kind of prejudice has been overcome time after time in our history.


On Jul 14 05:57 AM User 353732 wrote:

> 1. The Govt can and is making things worse; it has no affirmative
> capacity in July 2009 to make things better . Intellectual fraud,
> moral bankruptcy, the criminal misallocation and waste of national
> resources, the deliberate expansion of the parasitic class and serial
> deceits by the political bosses are not the basis for increasing
> consumer and business confidence. Without an increase in confidence
> , no economy, anywhere, esp. not one as complex and large as the
> US can possibly revive.
> 2. When fantasy money, worthless credit and extravangantly false
> promises intersect they create a vapor economy that starts to dissipate
> and blow away as soon as a sufficently large number of investors,
> households and businesses perceive and painfully experience the chasm
> between " our policies are working; we know what we are doing; things
> are getting better" and their daily reality of falling income, compressing
> profits, increasing tax and regulatory oppression and evaporating
> net worth.
> Savings are rising , not because people and businesses are becoming
> more prosperous but because they are becoming more frightened by
> the day. The only way for savings to rise when income is declining
> is for consumption and long term risk investment in wealth creating
> activities to fall sharply. Consequently production falls and jobs
> disappear.
> 3.In July 2009, America finds itself with a shrinking and pessimistic
> new world middle class, a callous and self obsessed old world upper
> class and a third world Govt in Wash DC and in California, New York,
> New Jersey, Michigan, Illinois among other states.
> The old world and the third world have coalesced among our elites
> to assault the new world. Under these circumstances it is inevitable
> that we get a steadily worsening economy and a steadily compressing
> middle class. It is not the States that are collapsing but the Middle
> Class.
> 4. It is a deep error to think that the State Govts are the units
> and motors of economic activity and wealth creation in the US: they
> are engines of destruction. It is the Middle Class that is the source
> of innovation, job creation and wealth expansion. It is now the manifest
> policy of our Govt at the Federal and State(eg California, Michigan,
> New York) level to fanatically fuel the engines of destruction
> while sabotaging the engines of creation.]]> Tue, 21 Jul 2009 12:30:56 -0400
1. The government is not some evil entity, is is who we elected and what we have seen in the past is that government policies are not the long term drivers of the economy. That is business's role and since we are going through a structural break it is going to be very hard, there is no easy money left, which was mostly being stolen by old white guys like the type that fill the roles of the republican and democratic positions in DC to this very day.


2. You see that the easy money is gone also, but have no faith that the American worker can emerge as a force once the rules are changed enough to allow small businesses to grow and forces large businesses to pay their way.

As for saving because of worry, that is the core reason anyone saves, because we can't know what is going to happen.

3. This the the racism line item, everything you say in your third point is biased and wrong.

4. I think we agree on point four that the creation of wealth is driven by ordinary people that are smart and willing to work, they can be of any color, religion or race, we may not agree on that based on your 3rd point but that kind of prejudice has been overcome time after time in our history.


On Jul 14 05:57 AM User 353732 wrote:

> 1. The Govt can and is making things worse; it has no affirmative
> capacity in July 2009 to make things better . Intellectual fraud,
> moral bankruptcy, the criminal misallocation and waste of national
> resources, the deliberate expansion of the parasitic class and serial
> deceits by the political bosses are not the basis for increasing
> consumer and business confidence. Without an increase in confidence
> , no economy, anywhere, esp. not one as complex and large as the
> US can possibly revive.
> 2. When fantasy money, worthless credit and extravangantly false
> promises intersect they create a vapor economy that starts to dissipate
> and blow away as soon as a sufficently large number of investors,
> households and businesses perceive and painfully experience the chasm
> between " our policies are working; we know what we are doing; things
> are getting better" and their daily reality of falling income, compressing
> profits, increasing tax and regulatory oppression and evaporating
> net worth.
> Savings are rising , not because people and businesses are becoming
> more prosperous but because they are becoming more frightened by
> the day. The only way for savings to rise when income is declining
> is for consumption and long term risk investment in wealth creating
> activities to fall sharply. Consequently production falls and jobs
> disappear.
> 3.In July 2009, America finds itself with a shrinking and pessimistic
> new world middle class, a callous and self obsessed old world upper
> class and a third world Govt in Wash DC and in California, New York,
> New Jersey, Michigan, Illinois among other states.
> The old world and the third world have coalesced among our elites
> to assault the new world. Under these circumstances it is inevitable
> that we get a steadily worsening economy and a steadily compressing
> middle class. It is not the States that are collapsing but the Middle
> Class.
> 4. It is a deep error to think that the State Govts are the units
> and motors of economic activity and wealth creation in the US: they
> are engines of destruction. It is the Middle Class that is the source
> of innovation, job creation and wealth expansion. It is now the manifest
> policy of our Govt at the Federal and State(eg California, Michigan,
> New York) level to fanatically fuel the engines of destruction
> while sabotaging the engines of creation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149509-ge-results-validate-theory-severe-economic-contraction?source=feed#comment-592956 592956
Your claim, "and in order for revenue to come back to pre-bust levels, we would have to re-inflate the credit bubble - which simply cannot happen." Is not based on facts, just your attempt to apply the past to the future, always a fool's game.

I think there are a lot on new jobs in the works, alternative energy, new car companies, commerce that is not tied to huge, inefficient platforms like malls.

Once healthcare is reigned in small business people like myself can start hiring and giving raises and the money that we have been dumping into the Middle East, along with the productivity losses from Americans having to be soldiers instead of wage earners will make a difference.

I like your wall of worry though, up nicely this year and see 2010 as a very good year for real business, not phony banking profits/]]> Sat, 18 Jul 2009 10:35:06 -0400
Your claim, "and in order for revenue to come back to pre-bust levels, we would have to re-inflate the credit bubble - which simply cannot happen." Is not based on facts, just your attempt to apply the past to the future, always a fool's game.

I think there are a lot on new jobs in the works, alternative energy, new car companies, commerce that is not tied to huge, inefficient platforms like malls.

Once healthcare is reigned in small business people like myself can start hiring and giving raises and the money that we have been dumping into the Middle East, along with the productivity losses from Americans having to be soldiers instead of wage earners will make a difference.

I like your wall of worry though, up nicely this year and see 2010 as a very good year for real business, not phony banking profits/]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148505-boomers-in-trouble-the-unheralded-economic-mega-trend-part-1?source=feed#comment-587889 587889
1. The emphasis on the Boomer generation is a naive perspective that had marketing value and little more, a young boomer has more in common with an older X,er than an older boomer.

2. If you look at the progress in quality of life the boomers did very well, although the ultimate cost of the credit issue is poorly understood.

3. Accumulation of wealth at the individual and small group level has diminishing returns, this is a fact that has been shown by many studies and should be integrated into future educational efforts.

4. The US still is the largest manufacturing country as measure by production dollars in the world.


On Jul 14 11:02 AM newamericanow wrote:

> Since this is a consumer driven economy needing new debt to be incurred
> over the previous year we are all screwed and this was very predictable
> because it was unsustainable. Comparing japan to the US is comparing
> apples and rice. Japan does not have a world currency and still has
> a major manufacturing base, just look who's name appears on all you
> electronic equipment in your home. The economic collapse is imminent
> my friends so get your head out of the sand and turn of American
> Idol because this is pretty serious stuff . Our whole economy is
> about to implode because of the shortsight of our American political
> system and yes our apathetic citizenry. We keep borrowing and the
> credit has dryed up. We can't even pay the interest let alone the
> principal. The boomers will speed this process up because of entitlement
> programs created by them and their parents generation will not be
> able to be fullfilled. I feel it may be as soon as this fall...September-October.
> States can no longer support themselves because Sales and Real Estate
> taxes are way down, but states have already spent the money prematurely,
> counting on revenue that did not appear. IOU's they say in hopes
> that things will turn around by October. Not a chance folks. See
> my Blog for info at www.newamerica-now.blo... and my
> youtube channel at www.youtube.com/user/n... for
> real advice. God Bless us we are going to need it.]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 14:13:14 -0400
1. The emphasis on the Boomer generation is a naive perspective that had marketing value and little more, a young boomer has more in common with an older X,er than an older boomer.

2. If you look at the progress in quality of life the boomers did very well, although the ultimate cost of the credit issue is poorly understood.

3. Accumulation of wealth at the individual and small group level has diminishing returns, this is a fact that has been shown by many studies and should be integrated into future educational efforts.

4. The US still is the largest manufacturing country as measure by production dollars in the world.


On Jul 14 11:02 AM newamericanow wrote:

> Since this is a consumer driven economy needing new debt to be incurred
> over the previous year we are all screwed and this was very predictable
> because it was unsustainable. Comparing japan to the US is comparing
> apples and rice. Japan does not have a world currency and still has
> a major manufacturing base, just look who's name appears on all you
> electronic equipment in your home. The economic collapse is imminent
> my friends so get your head out of the sand and turn of American
> Idol because this is pretty serious stuff . Our whole economy is
> about to implode because of the shortsight of our American political
> system and yes our apathetic citizenry. We keep borrowing and the
> credit has dryed up. We can't even pay the interest let alone the
> principal. The boomers will speed this process up because of entitlement
> programs created by them and their parents generation will not be
> able to be fullfilled. I feel it may be as soon as this fall...September-October.
> States can no longer support themselves because Sales and Real Estate
> taxes are way down, but states have already spent the money prematurely,
> counting on revenue that did not appear. IOU's they say in hopes
> that things will turn around by October. Not a chance folks. See
> my Blog for info at www.newamerica-now.blo... and my
> youtube channel at www.youtube.com/user/n... for
> real advice. God Bless us we are going to need it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148385-winter-s-coming-for-the-boomers-part-1?source=feed#comment-586303 586303

On Jul 13 10:57 AM lynnybee wrote:

> ........ This was an excellent article, just wonderful. Thank
> you so much for writing this. My parents' generation was called
> THE GREATEST GENERATION. I fear the legacy of the boomer generation
> is that we will be labeled, THE GREEDIEST & MOST NARCISSISTIC
> GENERATION. My Mom always taught me that we were supposed to
> care for and watch out for the younger generation coming after us,
> we were supposed to do right by them and help them grow up ..........
> Looks like this message was LOST on WALL ST. & WASHINGTON D.C.
> ............. I'm a boomer & just ashamed of the whole sorry
> mess. So, we're just going to dump this entire mess in the
> laps of our children & grandchildren ?! The shame on WALL
> ST. & WASINGTON D.C. should be great.]]> Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:38:04 -0400

On Jul 13 10:57 AM lynnybee wrote:

> ........ This was an excellent article, just wonderful. Thank
> you so much for writing this. My parents' generation was called
> THE GREATEST GENERATION. I fear the legacy of the boomer generation
> is that we will be labeled, THE GREEDIEST & MOST NARCISSISTIC
> GENERATION. My Mom always taught me that we were supposed to
> care for and watch out for the younger generation coming after us,
> we were supposed to do right by them and help them grow up ..........
> Looks like this message was LOST on WALL ST. & WASHINGTON D.C.
> ............. I'm a boomer & just ashamed of the whole sorry
> mess. So, we're just going to dump this entire mess in the
> laps of our children & grandchildren ?! The shame on WALL
> ST. & WASINGTON D.C. should be great.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148385-winter-s-coming-for-the-boomers-part-1?source=feed#comment-586292 586292
We are not is the terrible fix that the evangelicals or the Hobbesian's would have you believe. ]]> Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:35:01 -0400
We are not is the terrible fix that the evangelicals or the Hobbesian's would have you believe. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148154-the-crash-of-2008-and-what-it-means-by-george-soros?source=feed#comment-584645 584645
By the end he was spouting a bunch of nonsense to a herd of nodding heads.

Rand was proven wrong when she died of lung cancer while railing against government intervention into consumer products


On Jul 12 10:53 AM tonym wrote:

> On Jul 11 08:30 PM joes wrote:]]> Sun, 12 Jul 2009 14:35:12 -0400
By the end he was spouting a bunch of nonsense to a herd of nodding heads.

Rand was proven wrong when she died of lung cancer while railing against government intervention into consumer products


On Jul 12 10:53 AM tonym wrote:

> On Jul 11 08:30 PM joes wrote:]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148154-the-crash-of-2008-and-what-it-means-by-george-soros?source=feed#comment-583931 583931
For me it has been helpful, especially lately since so many American developed theories, especially those from Harvard and University of Chicago, were proven to be not only wrong, but spectacularly wrong.

For us followers of Reflexivity watching Alan Greenspan admit that his Ayn Rand theories were inferior and wrong.

It is difficult for certain types of thinkers to understand, I've been following Mr. Soros for over 20 years, as a Hungarian there isn't a lot of heros and he fit the bill for me.

While his financial expertise is stunning, his support for Democracy and human rights through his annual $500 Million donations through his Open Society Institute is worth a Nobel and more. He is a great man and a hell of an investor.]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 20:30:28 -0400
For me it has been helpful, especially lately since so many American developed theories, especially those from Harvard and University of Chicago, were proven to be not only wrong, but spectacularly wrong.

For us followers of Reflexivity watching Alan Greenspan admit that his Ayn Rand theories were inferior and wrong.

It is difficult for certain types of thinkers to understand, I've been following Mr. Soros for over 20 years, as a Hungarian there isn't a lot of heros and he fit the bill for me.

While his financial expertise is stunning, his support for Democracy and human rights through his annual $500 Million donations through his Open Society Institute is worth a Nobel and more. He is a great man and a hell of an investor.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148053-hollywood-lotteries-and-mutual-funds-show-that-risk-is-relative?source=feed#comment-582387 582387
My guess is no, because people love big risks, until they are on the wrong side of a trade.

Then they love the Government.]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 12:46:47 -0400
My guess is no, because people love big risks, until they are on the wrong side of a trade.

Then they love the Government.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147585-what-to-do-about-the-bottom-billion?source=feed#comment-581077 581077
If there isn't enough to "go around" then how come there is too much in so many top 1 billion counties?]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:16:18 -0400
If there isn't enough to "go around" then how come there is too much in so many top 1 billion counties?]]>