I am a reformed MD, now with a finance MBA, and studying valuation independently by developing some conservative DCF models using FCF per share. You can make any investment work if you set a low enough discount rate.... that's one of the discouraging things about doing anything other than passive index investing. Forecasting isn't too accurate, those darn standard deviations are too wide. Margins of safety and alpha are rare and hard to separate from the noise.
Led by MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts, Trefis.com helps you understand how a company's products, that you touch, read, or hear about everyday, impact its stock price.
Surprisingly, the founders of Trefis discovered that along with most other people they just did not understand even the seemingly familiar companies around them: Apple, Google, Coca Cola, Walmart, GE, Ford, Gap, and others.
This might include you though you may have invested money in these companies, or may have been working with one of them for years as an employee, or have consulted with them as an expert for a long time.
Consider these questions:
•What % of Apple's stock price is iPhones? (Q: Is it 5%, 25%, or 50%?)
•What % of Dell's stock price is Dell Notebooks?
•If Bing took half the market share from Google Search, what % upside could there be for Microsoft’s stock?
On Trefis you will get answers to questions like above.
You can play with assumptions, or try scenarios, as-well-as ask questions to other users and experts. The platform uses extensive data to show in a single snapshot what drives the value of a company's business.
Trefis makes the same content, data, and tools that are currently available only to professional investors today, accessible to everyone. Importantly, it makes the extensive data/tools easy to use and understand, allowing investors to leverage the platform in their decision making much more efficiently than anything else available.
Trefis is currently used by hundreds of thousands of investors, company employees, and business professionals.
Our team is based in Chicago and New York with experience at Google, The Wall Street Journal, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Tribune and WallStreetView.
YCharts visualizes massive amounts of market information to identify companies with long-term competitive advantages and appropriate valuations. Fundamentals matter and we believe it’s important to understand how companies perform over time and relative to their peers. We cover over 20,000 U.S. & Canadian companies and manage over 40 million investor trends in real-time.
Ronnie Moas is the Founder & Director of Research at Standpoint Research and Founder of www.philanthropyandphilosophy.com. Ronnie has given more than 50 television, radio, magazine and newspaper interviews in the last year and was recently ranked # 1 versus 3,795 analysts at TipRanks. Standpoint Research currently advises and sells its research to pension funds, hedge funds, day-traders and asset management firms. Mr. Moas spent 1998-2003 developing and back-testing a 155-variable equity valuation and diagnostic model. The model has been run more than 1000 times since development was completed in June 2003. The model has since then built an exceptional track record of more than 800 recommendations. In 2002, he wrote a 284-page research report back-testing more than one-dozen different trading strategies on 20 years of data. In 2003, Mr. Moas was one of the first analysts on Wall Street to forecast bull markets in commodities, Brazil, Russia, India and China. He also exited (mid-2007) and re-entered (late-2008) in a timely manner. Ronnie has issued more than 800 stock recommendations since July 2003. Standpoint Research is ranked # 1 beating the S&P-500 by at least 500 bps with 67% of their (494) recommendations (2008-2015). Bloomberg and Dow Jones have both time-stamped all recommendations made by Standpoint Research since 2008. Ideas are generated by a 155-variable computer model Ronnie developed (1998-2003). Recommendations are made only after heavy fundamental and subjective overlays are applied. Standpoint Research covers all ten sectors. Standpoint Research is now widely recognized as one of the top equity research firms in the US and internationally. Ronnie has made multiple appearances on Bloomberg, Fox and CNBC and is quoted frequently in The Wall St. Journal, Fortune magazine, The New York Times, BusinessWeek, and Barron’s (among many others). Mr. Moas received a Bachelor’s degree in Economics and Business with Honors from the State University of New York at Stony Brook, and a Masters degree in Finance and Investments from Baruch College, City University of New York. Mr. Moas was born in New York and lived in Israel from 1983-1994. He returned to New York after completing a three-year Israeli military service in artillery and intelligence with rank of Sergeant. Before returning to the United States in 1994, Ronnie worked at Shuki Weiss International Concert Productions where a few of his production credits included the Haifa Seaport Blues Festival, Bob Dylan, Radiohead, Buddy Guy and Suede. Ronnie has traveled to more than 50 countries on six continents since 2007, he designed the Standpoint Research web site, is the owner of an articulate African Grey Parrot and a very large music collection of 1,500 cds.
As director of research at Portfolio123, I have long specialized in rules/factor-based equity investing strategies of the sort characterized as “Smart Alpha” in the July 2014 Journal of Portfolio Management. In addition, I formerly managed a high-yield fixed-income fund and conducted research involving quantitative asset allocation strategies such as are at the foundation of what today has come to be known as Robo Advising. I formerly edited the the Forbes Low Priced Stock Report, and served as an assistant research director at Value Line. I have long had a passion for investor education, which has resulted in my having conducted numerous seminars on stock selection and analysis, and the authoring of two books: Screening The Market and The Value Connection.
Saj Karsan founded an investment and research firm that is based on the principles of value investing. He has an MBA from the Richard Ivey School of Business, has completed all three CFA exams, and has an engineering degree from McGill University. Visit his blog, Barel Karsan (http://barelkarsan.com/).
optionMONSTER® provides stock market insight, advanced options education, and actionable trade ideas to meet the needs of do-it-yourself investors. Our content is published daily at our website www.optionmonster.com in the form of free stories, webcasts, webinars, educational offerings and subscription services.
Kapitall is the online finance platform for the next generation, where investing is as easy as drag, drop and trade. With an intuitive and playful user experience, Kapitall offers tools that make it easy to build virtual and real brokerage portfolios, share ideas and research stocks and funds.
The Rational Walk was created to provide a platform to publish equity research based on value investing principles. We believe that diligent and thorough security analysis has the potential to identify opportunities in the financial markets for the small number of investors who truly have long time horizons and the appropriate temperament to ignore short term market fluctuations. The Rational Walk’s extensive coverage of Berkshire Hathaway has been mentioned in several news articles.
Dr. Stephen Leeb is a recognized authority on the stock market, macroeconomic trends and commodities, especially oil and precious metals.
Dr. Leeb is founder of the Leeb Group, which publishes a line of financial newsletters including The Complete Investor, Leeb Income Performance Letter, Leeb Income Millionaire, Brain Trust Profits, Leeb's Real World Investing and Leeb's Aggressive Trader. His total readership exceeds 100,000. The Complete Investor newsletter has earned two awards for Editorial Excellence, as has Leeb Income Performance.
Dr. Leeb is also Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of a New York-based registered investment advisory firm. Dr. Leeb has been managing large cap growth portfolios since 1999.
Dr. Leeb sits on various boards sharing his strategic perspectives on financial markets and natural resources. Since 2008, Dr. Leeb has been a Director of Plain Sight Systems, a technology holding company centered at Yale University. Plain Sight owns a world-class patent portfolio in areas such as information organization/search, computational analytics, electro-optics, and spectroscopy. These technologies are licensed to Fortune 500 companies and used as part of private buyouts and venture spin-offs.
As part of Plain Sight, Dr. Leeb also sits on the board of Water Intelligence plc, a publicly listed company in England, operating in the water management space and Deep Markets Corporation, a division of Plain Sight developing next generation risk management applications.
Dr. Leeb is also Head of the Advisory Board of Leor Exploration & Production LLC (since 2006 - present) and a member of the advisory boards of Electrum USA Ltd. (since 2007) and Los Gatos. Each of these companies explore for natural resources, especially precious metals and energy.
Dr. Leeb is the author of eight books on investments and financial trends. His latest book, Red Alert: How China's Growing Prosperity Threatens the American Way of Life (Business Plus, 2012) predicts China's coming global domination.
An earlier book, The New York Times best seller, The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel (Warner Books, 2006), predicted that tightness in global energy supplies would cause the American economy to oscillate between periods of recession and high inflation this century.
Dr. Leeb’s best seller, The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis (Warner Books, 2004), outlined the relationship between oil prices and stock market performance and accurately predicted the subsequent surge in oil prices. The book was rated among the top investment books of the year by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005.
His earlier best seller, Defying the Market: Profiting in the Turbulent Post-Technology Market Boom (McGraw-Hill; 1999) predicted the collapse of technology stocks and the growing importance of oil, and other hard assets during the 21st century. The book was selected by Library Journal as one of the Best Business Books of 1999.
His first book Getting in on the Ground Floor (Putnam, 1986) predicted the secular bull market in financial assets and the fall in inflation. The book was a main selection of the Money Book Club.
Dr. Leeb earned his Bachelor's degree in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business. He then completed both a Master's degree in Mathematics and a Ph.D. in Psychology at the University of Illinois.
MagicDiligence provides useful, simple, and effective stock screening tools inspired by Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula® Investing methodology. Our Spells give value and growth investors a list of great stock candidates every day, and our advanced Spell Caster lets you create the Magic-style stock screen you've always wanted! Learn more about our exclusive set of investing tools today!
Editor for The Biotech Forum (www.biotechforumsa.com), the #2 subscribed to Marketplace investment service offered through SeekingAlpha. Top 5% ranked analyst (TipRanks) 2013 through first half of 2015. Daily contributor for Real Money Pro. Hedge fund manager from 2008 to 2011. Previously technology executive at Fortune 100 firm for a decade. For Free weekly investment reports on small, attractive biotech stocks just register at www.bretjenseninvests.com
Mark's mutual fund is launching December 15, 2011.
He is a self taught private investor who operates the website Fund My Mutual Fund (http://fundmymutualfund.com); a daily mix of market, economic, and stock specific commentary. Fascinated by the market since an early age, he discovered mutual funds as a teenager in the 80s and moved to equities by the mid 90s. The origin of the website is/was to leverage the power of the internet in developing a transparent track record to attract investors for his potential "long/short" mutual fund.
His equity focus is identifying secular growth trends and the companies most likely to benefit from these macro trends. Stocks are identified through fundamental analysis, although basic technical analysis is used in determining entry and exit points. You can receive Trader Mark's latest posts daily by subscribing free via RSS reader (http://feeds.feedburner.com/FundMyMutualFund) or subscribing free via email (http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/emailverifySubmit?feedId=1109639).
With a degree in economics from the University of Michigan, a broader understanding of the economy as a whole, along with interpreting investor psychology, is also a major interest for Mark. To follow on Twitter, username: fundmyfund
Alan Brochstein, CFA, was the first investment professional to devote himself to sharing his observations about the cannabis industry from an investor's perspective publicly. He runs 420 Investor, a subscription-based due diligence platform for investors interested in the publicly-traded cannabis stocks and is also the founder of New Cannabis Ventures, a content aggregation site focused on investors and entrepreneurs in the cannabis industry.
Alan has worked in the securities industry since 1986, primarily with the responsibility for managing investments in institutional environments until he founded AB Analytical Services in 2007 in order to provide independent research and consulting to registered investment advisors. In addition to advising several different hedge funds and investment managers, including Friedberg Investment Management, where he participated as a member of its investment management committee, Alan was also a senior analyst for the independent research firm Management CV. In 2008, he began providing a first-of-its-kind subscription-based service for individual investors, Invest By Model, which offered two different portfolios that investors could replicate in their own accounts for $20 per month. Alan also offered The Analytical Trader at Marketfy, where he used fundamental and technical analysis in a disciplined process to offer specific trade ideas geared towards swing traders.
Alan launched www.420Investor.com in late 2013 as the premier source of information for "Green Rush" investors seeking to capitalize on the proliferation of legalized medical and recreational cannabis. In March 2014, Alan, who is a member of the National Cannabis Industry Association, began to focus solely on the cannabis sector. He launched www.NewCannabisVentures.com in late 2015.
You can follow Alan on Facebook (www.facebook.com/420investor) or on Twitter (https://twitter.com/Invest420). Alan also moderates a large LinkedIn group focused on the cannabis industry, Cannabis Investors & Entrepreneurs (https://www.linkedin.com/groups/6523904)
Kenneth S. Hackel C.F.A., Biography
Kenneth S. Hackel is founder and President of CT Capital LLC, an institutional investment advisory firm specializing in the analysis of corporate cash flow and cost of capital in investment decision making. Until 1996, he was President of Systematic Financial Management Inc., (SFM) a multi-billion dollar institutional investment firm he conceived and founded in 1982. At SFM, Kenneth successfully implemented his free cash flow-based investment philosophy in managing funds for institutional investors across multiple US equity investment disciplines.
Kenneth's upcoming book, "Security Valuation and Risk Analysis: Assessing Value in Investment Decision-Making", to be published by McGraw Hill later this November, significantly extends the theories and analysis presented in his earlier book, "Cash Flow and Security Analysis," 2nd edition (McGraw Hill, 1995). His new book provides extensive analysis and discussion of innovative methods for cost of capital and return on invested capital that are not dependent upon generally accepted accounting principles or market-derived measures of stock volatility. Instead, the models are based on cash flows and extensive credit analysis. To this end, half the book is devoted to the understanding of cash flow; half to cost of capital, as risk to cash flows are meticulously expounded upon. The analysis of risk represents, according to Mr. Hackel, the single most important under-explored factor in security analysis and the primary reason for investor disappointment of their investment returns.
He posits that using fundamental factors to calculate cost of equity capital (reflecting a company's operating and financial risk, capital structure, and miscellaneous intrinsic items) and return on invested capital based upon free cash flow generation (in lieu of traditional earnings or EBITDA-based measures) more accurately reflect the underlying financial profitability and stability of a firm, its growth potential and value enhancement level. Kenneth believes that while beta measures stock volatility, it is, at best, a very loose surrogate for financial health. Consequently, using a more robust discount rate (to model and discount free cash flows) to arrive at 'fair value' will provide a more accurate comparison to current valuation levels, thus leading to more accurate trading signals. He illustrates the use of a comprehensive cost of capital credit worksheet utilizing 50+ credit variables in place of the popular Capital Asset Pricing Model in divining an entity's true cost of equity, which results in superior investment performance with considerably lower risk.
Ken is the author of many articles on security valuation and analysis, and pioneered the use of adding a percentage of excess corporate expenditures to free cash flow. He is internationally recognized as a leading expert in valuation analysis, having also created the use of free cash flow in lieu of EBITDA in ROIC analysis. EBITDA, he explains, is a deficient metric, in many respects.
Ken is accepted to be the sole investment advisor in US equity mutual fund history to take over management of the worst performing mutual fund, and in a single year turn it into the best performing fund.
With over 35 years of investment experience, he has consulted on mergers and acquisitions, including fairness opinions. His work has been published in leading academic journals as well as leading financial news media, and is quoted worldwide. He is a graduate of City College of New York and earned his MBA (Finance) from Baruch College.
His blog may be read at www.credittrends.com and his twitter @credittrends.
Ben Strubel is the President and Portfolio Manager of Strubel Investment Management, LLC ("SIM") a registered investment advisor. Strubel Investment Management provides separate account management services for clients and also publishes The Value Investor's Edge Newsletter. Ben Strubel is a Graduate of Drexel University with a Master of Business Administration in Investment Management. After graduation Ben founded SIM. Prior to founding SIM Ben worked for several years in the Information Technology field at a Fortune 1000 company. Ben has a unique three pronged approach to investing. First, seek to lower costs as much as possible by avoiding high fee mutual funds and tax inefficient strategies. Second, diversify client funds across multiple uncorrelated asset classes. Third, maintain a value investing focus. Ben selects individual securities for the equity portion of client portfolios and focuses on buying companies with excellent fundamentals that have fallen out of favor with the market.
I am a long-time individual investor with an engineering degree and an MBA. I worked in aerospace-defense for 15 years and have spent the last decade or so working for a large financial services firm. This academic, work and investing background helps me cast an informed eye on tech stocks, the stock market and the economy and also provides the skills needed to write the software that supports the various parts of the Trade-Radar.com website as well as the Trade-Radar Stock Inspector "Total Stock Analysis" software.
Visit his blog: http://blog.trade-radar.com
Download the Trade-Radar Stock Inspector software: http://trade-radar.com/download/download.html
Visit Trade-Radar AlertHQ for free stock picks: http://trade-radar.com/AlertHQ/AlertHQ.html
Zack Buckley is the founder and President of Buckley Capital Partners, a value-focused long/short equity hedge fund. BCP employs a fundamental approach that is research intensive and concentrated, generally with 10-15 core positions focused primarily in small cap equities. While BCP is long-biased, the fund occasionally shorts companies in situations with highly asymmetric risk-reward potential. Mr. Buckley is a contributing writer for Thestreet.com and Seekingalpha.com. Prior to launching Buckley Capital Partners, Mr. Buckley was an analyst at Baker Street Capital Management.
David Hunkar (pseudonym) holds a Masters Degree in Finance and Economics. He is a part-time consultant for a financial consulting firm where he manages portfolios for manages portfolios for self and family. He has been an investor for the past ten years. David focuses on foreign stocks trading in the US markets including the OTC market. He concentrates on high dividend yield and dividend growth stocks. ETFs are his another favorite investment vehicle. In addition to his contributions here at Seeking Alpha, you can also visit him at his blog www.topforeignstocks.com
ResearchRecap (http://www.researchrecap.com/) is a service provided by Alacra (http://www.alacra.com/).
Research Recap (http://www.researchrecap.com/) is designed to showcase compelling industry, economic, academic, market, investment and credit research. The audience includes the investment community and professional services firms, as well as others interested in the types of research we include.
Leigh Drogen is the Founder and CEO of Estimize.com and Forcerank.com. Estimize is an open financial estimates platform which facilitates the aggregation of fundamental estimates from independent, buy-side, and sell-side analysts, along with those of industry experts and private investors. By sourcing estimates from a diverse community of individuals, Estimize provides both a more accurate and more representative view of expectations compared to sell side only data. Leigh started his career as a quant trader at Geller Capital, a White Plains, NY based fund where he ran strategies that looked at earnings acceleration and analyst estimate revision models, as well as price momentum and several sentiment indicators. Leigh later went on to be the founder of Surfview Capital, a New York based asset management firm that used many of the same strategies as Geller Capital, with a focus on higher beta names on an intermediate term time frame. His educational background includes focus in economics and international relations, specifically war theory. He is a graduate with honors from Hunter College in New York City. You can contact Leigh by emailing him at Leigh@estimize.com
Charles (Chuck) C. Carnevale is the creator of F.A.S.T. Graphs™. Chuck is also co-founder of an investment management firm. He has been working in the securities industry since 1970: he has been a partner with a private NYSE member firm, the President of a NASD firm, Vice President and Regional Marketing Director for a major AMEX listed company, and an Associate Vice President and Investment Consulting Services Coordinator for a major NYSE member firm. Prior to forming his own investment firm, he was a partner in a 30-year-old established registered investment advisory in Tampa, Florida. Chuck holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics and Finance from the University of Tampa. Chuck is a sought-after public speaker who is very passionate about spreading the critical message of prudence in money management. Chuck is a Veteran of the Vietnam War and was awarded both the Bronze Star and the Vietnam Honor Medal.
Doug Sheridan is Managing Director of EnergyPoint Research in Houston, Tx, an independent market research firm specializing in the measurement and monitoring of customer satisfaction and supplier performance in the oil and gas industry. Prior to founding EnergyPoint in 2003, Sheridan held commercial and corporate positions with a Fortune 500 company in the U.S. natural gas sector.
Sheridan has been active in a number of industry associations, including the National Petroleum Council, and is regularly sourced for his analyses and opinion concerning oil and gas industry trends and issues, particularly in the area of customer satisfaction and supplier performance. He has been published and/or cited in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, The Sunday Times, Oil & Gas Journal, E&P Magazine, Upstream Technology, Oil & Gas Investor, breakingviews.com, Gas Processors Journal and other trade, business and financial publications.
Sheridan holds a BA from Vanderbilt University and an MBA from the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business.
Readers are advised that Mr. Sheridan, through his firm EnergyPoint Research, is a specialist in the area of customer satisfaction. Neither he nor his firm is a registered or licensed financial analyst or advisor.
China OTC Player/Rising China Stocks, a blog run by China OTC Player and Platinum Tiger, focuses on uncovering the hidden potential in emerging Chinese stocks. They are MBAs (Stanford and Wharton) based in Los Angeles who have lived and worked in Singapore, China, Hong Kong, and other parts of the world, sometimes as investment professionals and sometimes in other fields. Their mission is to enlighten, enthuse and entertain as they pursue profits via investment in China's new growth companies.
Visit their blog: China OTC Player/Rising China Stocks (http://chinaotcplayer.blogspot.com/)
The Federal Reserve has pegged interest rates to all time lows. This leaves income investors in a quandary - not knowing where to invest.
Bruce looks at the best income, growth, natural resource, and technology equities while taking a contrarian approach. ETFs can often be used to mitigate risk for investors who wish to take a "hands off" approach.
Bruce has degrees from Calvin College and the University of South Dakota and has been investing in the markets for 40 years.
China has become the #2 pharmaceutical market years ahead of projections and continues to be the fastest growing market in the world. China is $50 billion dollars a year into life science and healthcare development through over 160 government funding programs. VC investment, M&A transactions and cross-border partnering deals in China were all up significantly in 2012.
ChinaBio® Today focuses exclusively on the rapidly evolving life science industry in China, including biotech, pharma, medical device, diagnostics, services and tools. From our offices in Shanghai and San Diego, our industry analysts provide daily news, commentary and analysis on public and private China life science companies, as well as events and global issues affecting the China market.
Visit: ChinaBio Today (http://www.chinabiotoday.com)
ChinaBio LLC (http://www.chinabiollc.com)
James Altucher was the managing director of Formula Capital, an asset management firm and fund of hedge funds. He's written five books on investing: Trade Like a Hedge Fund, Trade Like Warren Buffett, SuperCash, The Forever Portfolio, and his latest book, The Choose Yourself Guide To Wealth. He currently writes at Jamesaltucher.com and has released a newsletter, The Altucher Report.
Mr. Altucher is the founder of Stockpickr.com, a social network for finance that had millions of unique visitors per month when it was sold to TheStreet.com in 2007. He has written over 200 columns for The Financial Times and has written for TheStreet.com, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, Fidelity.com, and other publications. He was also the founder of a web services firm, Reset Inc, which he sold in 1998, at which time he became a partner at VC firm, 212 Ventures/Investcorp. Mr. Altucher regularly appears on CNBC, Fox News, Fox Business, and CNN Radio, and is also in his spare time a nationally ranked chess master. Mr. Altucher received his BA at Cornell University and attended graduate school for computer science at Carnegie Mellon University.
You can follow him on twitter @jaltucher.
Matt McCall is founder and president of Penn Financial Group, an investment advisory firm that specializes in ETFs and individual portfolio management. The company also publishes MarkETForce, a newsletter dedicated solely to ETFs and proprietary ETF portfolios.
Matt is also a contributor for Fox Business Network and can be seen Monday-Friday from 6pm-7pm ET discussing markets, economy, and world events.
Matt has authored two investment books. The first, “The Swing Trader’s Bible: Strategies to Profit from Market Volatility”. His second book, “The Next Great Bull Market: How to Pick Winning Stocks and Sectors in the New Global Economy” hit the shelves in October 2009.
John P. Reese is considered an expert in the systematic investing strategies of legendary investors, including Peter Lynch, Ben Graham, Warren Buffett and others. He has been active in the development of fundamentally-based quantitative models since the mid-90s. His research on Seeking Alpha will include stock ideas, strategy and value investing pieces, behavioral finance concepts, systematic and modeling methods as well as other long term investing concepts.
John is founder and CEO of Validea.com and also co-founder of Validea Capital Management, a asset management firm serving individuals and institutions. Validea Capital also runs an actively managed ETF that utilizes the fundamental stock selection models of investing legends.
John also sub-advises the National Bank Consensus American and International Equity Funds offered in the Canadian market. He holds two U.S. patents in the area of automated stock analysis and is considered an expert in the field of quantitative stock selection using the strategies of investing legends.
John is a columnist for TheStreet.com, Forbes.com and Canada's Globe & Mail and is co-author of “The Guru Investor: How to Beat the Market Using History’s Best Investment Strategies". He holds a master's of business administration from Harvard Business School and a degree in computer science from MIT.
A more complete biography can be found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_P._Reese