Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View mogando's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Has Apple peaked? Based on his recent purchase of Motorola's Atrix 2 phone, Cullen Roche seems to think so: "Apple finally has reason to be scared of the competition. Android OS has always had the capability to outpace the Apple OS. It was only a matter of time before the hardware caught up with the software... That’s the problem with being no. 1: There’s only one direction to go."  [View news story]
    "It was only a matter of time before the hardware caught up with the software"

    it's the other way around - Android hardware is always over-spec'ed (like a gigantic 4.65" screen?) and weak in software. some even has weirdness like a barometer (?!)

    Apple iPhone division alone commands 60% of the global mobile phone market profits (not just smartphones). The one's that's peaking is Google (getting pennies from their ads while getting sued for billions)

    if that author is so triumphant about Android, he should go buy shares of GOOG and put his money where his mouth is. But he won't dare - because GOOG is going nowhere while AAPL is within a few percentages of its historic high.
    Oct 26 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why are Amazon's (AMZN -10.3%) operating income and margins diving? Ramping Kindle production is one factor (the devices are loss leaders), but the company's long-term investments are a bigger one. As Erick Schonfeld notes, Amazon's Q3 spending on "technology and content" rose 74% Y/Y, and its spending on "fixed assets" doubled. (transcript)  [View news story]
    amazon should sell a ton of Kindle Fire at $199 so their margins (after marketing and R&D) goes to zero (i'm long AAPL anyway)
    Oct 26 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harvard Business School grads are flocking back to Wall Street - 38% took "market sensitive" jobs this year - and it bears watching, says Ray Soifer. If the numbers get too high, it could be a sell signal, he says, admitting it's an imprecise gauge. The last time the numbers ramped like this was 2008.  [View news story]
    is this indicator as worthless as that hindenburg omen ? or that ECRI one that came about 12 months too early ?
    Oct 25 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There are good reasons why Apple (AAPL +2.9%) may not make a play for Nuance (NUAN +2.6%): Apple doesn't make $8B acquisitions, and Nuance is in areas such as medical transcriptions that Apple doesn't want. But Mike Dawson thinks they'd be crazy not to try, since it could be worth it just to keep the speech recognition technology away from Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT).  [View news story]
    speech recognition is nothing unique. it's the context-specific AI in Siri that makes it unique and human-like.

    Android voice recognition is still talking to a robot and making a very small set of pre-programmed commands, while Siri is nearly close to talking to a human.
    Oct 24 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DisplaySearch predicts tablet sales will grow to nearly 330M in 2017, with most units featuring ARM (ARMH) processors rather than Intel (INTC) x86 chips. iPad (AAPL) shipments are expected to quadruple to nearly 200M. Of course, ABI predicted in Feb. '10 that tablet shipments would reach 57M in 2015 - DisplaySearch and others expect that figure to be passed this year.  [View news story]
    getting ahead of ourselves already. Apple's calendar 3Q sales of iPad was a disappointing 11M, so unless the holiday season reaches at least 16-18M, we can't be so sure the tablet market is THAT huge

    nevertheless, Android seems to be absolutely failing to even dent iPad (shipped does not equal sales). that entirely proves that mobile carrier meddling is the biggest factor to why iPhone is only 30% market share but iPad is 90%.
    Oct 24 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon will have to overcome much skepticism when it goes on its roadshow this week ahead of its IPO, which is slated for Nov. 3-4. The Grumpy Old Accountants declare Groupon to be "Technically Insolvent," while Herb Greenberg's red flags include slowing sales growth and forecasts of increased costs.  [View news story]
    sustainable businesses require (1) high barrier of entry, (2) "sticky-ness" of existing customers through incentives (to reward their behavior) or fees (to punish the opposite behavior), and (3) high-margin growth

    Groupon has none of the above.
    Oct 24 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two top rail execs are saying the U.S. is in a "slow growth environment" but not a recession. "I don't see a double-dip," Union Pacific's (UNP +4.9%) Jim Young says; with inventory levels "as low as they've ever been," any spurt in consumer demand would pose an opportunity. CSX's (CSX +1%) Michael Ward says the economy even shows signs of life. Earnings: UNP, CSX.  [View news story]
    people keep yapping about dr. copper, but rail shipment is THE bellwether for the economy - even warren buffet trust it

    fedex/ups could be used as a proxy but that's more subject to volatile oil prices.

    in today's fear environment, another excellent gauge of whether double-dip would come is the 10-year US Treasury yield (TBT). ignore all the noise like EUR/USD or USD/JPY or even Gold. i love Apple, but AAPL is a poor gauge of the overall market.
    Oct 20 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Google Should Be Scared Of Siri [View article]
    very well said. the abstraction of the manual process of choosing the right app, accessing the right website, and inputing the proper search terms is definitely killing google on the long run.

    EVERY google system is a loss leader to serve you desktop ads and mobile ads. Apple is very clever in a way of bypassing google search without ever having to create a search engine - just leveraging existing best knowledge out there.

    it's reported that something like 50-70% of mobile searches come from iOS. imagine if the BULK of those disappear within a year or two thanks to Siri - google's entire mobile strategy is finished (after dumping $12B on MMI while only making $3.2B on its record quarter).

    google's dumbest move ever was to spend money developing Android while earning nothing from it (while iOS continues to dominate mobile usage despite smaller market share) if MSFT pays Apple enough to switch the default search engine to Bing, GOOG would drop 10% minimum.
    Oct 17 01:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jiang Jianqing made $150K last year while running the world's largest bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - compared to the roughly $10M hauled in by Brian Moynihan (BAC) and $20M for Jamie Dimon (JPM). “We can’t be paid more than the regulators who oversee us," Jianqing says. (earlier)  [View news story]
    it's one thing to have sky-high compensation reeled in, it's another when the CEO of a gigantic bank in a huge and growing market make around the same as an IB Associate. I don't think the soft bribes "guanxi" is gonna make up the gap. ouch.
    Oct 17 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts at Piper Jaffray, R.W. Baird, and Ticonderoga give their approval to the iPhone 4S, believing the device will keep Apple's (AAPL) smartphone momentum going even if some are underwhelmed. But Henry Blodget is less sanguine, arguing the ~50% of iPhone owners who use an iPhone 4 have little motivation to upgrade.  [View news story]
    why listen to Henry Blodget? He's so pro Android that he thinks everyone wants Flash on their tablets
    Oct 4 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman believes holding China accountable as a currency manipulator would help bring down trade deficits and thus combat high unemployment. The risks of starting a trade war "need to be set against the fact - not the mere possibility - that high unemployment is inflicting tremendous cumulative damage."  [View news story]
    that's absolutely idiotic of him

    once china gets costly, companies would simply to turn to other emerging economies in SE Asia, Eastern Europe, and South America to replace the manufacturing capacity.

    sure it'll cost China big time, but America won't gain anything from it.
    Oct 3 08:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent underperformance in Apple (AAPL -0.7%) shares could set the stage for an upside move after tomorrow's expected iPhone 5 release, perhaps avoiding the "sell the news" trade because shares are up less in the last three months than the norm leading up to prior iPhone introductions. But will a thinner look and an improved camera be sufficient to dazzle consumers?  [View news story]
    the thing that would truly wow investors would be Apple willing to lower iPhone 4 to $350-400 unlocked for the pre-paid market

    previously, even the old-gen phones were only price-lowered by $100, which still commands roughly $500-550 unlocked - way too high for middle and emerging markets
    Oct 3 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A UBS survey finds Apple (AAPL) to have an 89% implied retention rate among smartphone owners, more than twice that of any other vendor. Research In Motion's (RIMM) rate was a mere 33%, down from 62% last year. 55% of Android (GOOG) owners say they'll stick with Android going forward, while 31% say they'll buy an iPhone. (Citi survey)  [View news story]
    this bodes ill for any long-term sustainability of Android in the high end smartphone market (that's until Apple starts to attack middle-market)

    and if iPhone 6 has a 4.3" screen with LTE, the entire "advantage" of Android is gone.

    google is wasting tons of money to give away a platform that generates miniscule mobile ad revenue when recent surveys all point to Apple iPhone/iPad devices doing the bulk of mobile search despite equal (or fewer) device volume (let's not pretend iPod Touch users do any serious browsing)
    Sep 22 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A tweet spreading a rumor that Apple (AAPL +2.4%) will replace H-P (HPQ -0.5%) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average begins to pick up steam.  [View news story]
    DJIA would have to drastically alter their weighing algorithm, or else Apple would count for 17% of the index - extremely high for any individual stock that should have 3.3% fair share
    Sep 20 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As expected, Spain's lower house approves a law allowing a 2nd rescue deal for Greece and expanded powers for the EFSF. The changes to the EFSF include an increase in the effective lending capacity to €440B and allowing funds to used for bank recapitalizations.  [View news story]
    Spain is on the brink of needing a bailout, and they're still wasting valuable funds on Greece ?
    Sep 15 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment