Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View mogando's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Much like UBS and Raymond James, Evercore's Rob Chira is offering a mixed outlook for iPhone sales. He sees FQ1 (Dec. quarter) sales coming in at a strong 50M, but expects volumes to drop to 39M in FQ2. Estimating 49% of iPhone sales now involving existing customers (up from 32% a year ago), Chira is cutting his FY13 revenue forecast for Apple (AAPL -0.3%) to $182B (consensus is at $191.5B). He still sees 24M iPads being sold in FQ1, but now expects 10M of them to involve the Mini (up from a prior 8M). [View news story]
    Another idiot analyst ... LG / HTC / Moto would DIE for quarterly sales of 39mil at $650 ASP, but somehow AAPL must be graded on a curve, so 39M is a "mixed outlook", but Samsung selling cell phones at only $300-350 ASP (inc dumbphones) is a "winner".

    5-6 years ago GOOG makes more profit than AAPL. Today AAPL generates more profit per quarter than GOOG generates in revenue. According to all these analysts, GOOG is the winner.
    Jan 3 12:29 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Apple: Topeka's Brian White, he of the $1,111 PT, claims "an insatiable appetite" exists for the iPad Mini in mainland China and Hong Kong, with checks indicating nearly all models are sold out in Hong Kong stores. He also claims Chinese iPhone 5 availability has improved, and that local resellers are calling it the most popular high-end smartphone. (previous[View news story]
    *a growing company with zero debt, huge cash pile, and a healthy dividend i might add
    Dec 28 12:44 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -0.4%) is down just slightly in spite of Citi's downgrade: iPhone order cuts and soft regular iPad sales seem priced in with multiples soundly in value territory, and many analysts are making it clear they're still fans. Canaccord's Milke Walkley is the latest to slash estimates (though reiterating a Buy), citing "softer sales expectations in international markets, primarily in Europe." Included in the Citi downgrade is U.S./U.K. survey data noting a growing consumer preference for bigger displays: 47% of iPhone owners said their preferred screen size is 4.1"-4.5". [View news story]
    Consumer preference surveys are meaningless because consumers always think bigger / more powerful doesn't come with compromises.

    If you take those surveys at face value, consumers want 5.5" phablet with 3 day web surfing battery life and less than 100oz that can fit into jeans pockets.

    Actually I see Samsung setting themselves for eventual disappointment. Since they've constantly proclaimed "bigger screen is better" in their marketing message, they have no choice but to increase screen size with every new revision of the Galaxy S line. From 4.3 to 4.8 to the rumored 5" of the GS4. They've run themselves into a wall.
    Dec 17 10:20 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on UBS's Apple (AAPL -2.9%) target cut: Analyst Steve Milunovich hasn't changed his FQ1 iPhone forecast much, but has lowered his estimates for each of the next 3 quarters by 5M. He claims Supply chain checks indicate the iPhone build rate will fall to 25M in the March quarter (his sales estimate for the quarter is still at 40M); that some Chinese sources don't expect the iPhone 5 to do as well as the 4S; and (like others) that the iPad Mini is cannibalizing its bigger peer.  On a more positive note, he thinks China Mobile could start selling the iPhone in a year. (Macquarie[View news story]
    iPad mini is cannibalizing Kindle Fire / Nexus 7 / cheapo netbooks FAR MORE than cannibalizing full-size iPad 4.

    Maybe UBS should come out with articles about how Google is too ashamed of Android tablet sales to release tablet-only activation figures.
    Dec 14 10:50 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "One of my favorite generational shorts is Apple (AAPL)," said bond guru Jeff Gundlach last night at a CFA dinner, as reported by CNBC's Jane Wells. "The rainmaker is gone, and I don't see people lining up all night for iPad 482."  [View news story]
    His corpse would have long decayed before AAPL launches iPad 482 (which btw, in case he's still napping inside his cone of distortion, is just called "iPad" from now on)

    He wants to short a stock with ACTUAL profit growth that's barely trading at P/E in the low teens ?? Good luck with that.
    Mar 9 11:17 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Apple: Topeka's Brian White, he of the $1,111 PT, claims "an insatiable appetite" exists for the iPad Mini in mainland China and Hong Kong, with checks indicating nearly all models are sold out in Hong Kong stores. He also claims Chinese iPhone 5 availability has improved, and that local resellers are calling it the most popular high-end smartphone. (previous[View news story]
    A growing company (both top and bottom lines) with a trailing P/E of 12 and people are still considering shorting it ?
    Dec 28 12:44 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Apple (AAPL -2.2%) last traded at its current level of $514, MLB spring training hadn't started and the 3rd-gen iPad was still a mystery. Outside of the poor sales figures for Dell's PC business, which Mac/iPad sales are partly responsible for, there doesn't seem to be any major news to trigger today's sharp decline. Shares now trade at just a little over 7x FY13E EPS exc. cash - the Street seems to be pricing in expectations of limited growth and ongoing margin pressure. [View news story]
    I finally bought AAPL the first time in years. Haven't seen Apple went on 25% sale like this (without any actual collapse of businesses or earnings).

    P/E of 12x, dividend yield of 2%, stock price upside of at least 45% (based on concensus target), and the WIDEST gap between actual stock price and concensus target since at least Apr 2011, and a product line that's either dominating (iPod / iPad) or margin-unchallenged (Mac, iPhone).
    Nov 16 11:57 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There will be 100K BB10 apps available when AT&T begins selling the BlackBerry Z10 (BBRY) on Friday, Thorsten Heins promises. Heins boasted of 70K apps at his company's Jan. 31 BB10 launch event. Heins also declares the iPhone's UI "five years old," states BlackBerry is in talks with major BB10 app holdouts such as Netflix and Instagram, and suggests a BB10 tablet won't be arriving in the near-term. "I think the [tablet] profit pool is very very thin. Kudos to Apple (AAPL), I think they really managed to own that space." [View news story]
    well said ! "UI is antiquated" .... says the company whose entire product line is already near irrelevance (except in Indonesia)
    Mar 18 01:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Apple: KGI Securities' Ming-Chi Kuo, who has been pretty accurate with his iScoops, has become the latest to predict a cheaper iPhone is arriving this year. He claims the device will have a 4" display and rely on a "super-thin plastic casing mixed with glass fiber." Foxconn and Jabil (JBL) are among the companies reportedly contracted to make the phone. Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu, who has cut his PT to $630 from $715 on signs of iPhone build order cuts, also expects a less costly iPhone made of "composite material casing." (plastic iPhone patent[View news story]
    when you search online it's "googling"

    when you look for travel it's "kayaking"

    when you copy blatantly ruthlessly and classlessly it's "samsunging"
    Mar 15 11:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL +1.7%) rallies as the Street takes the launch of Samsung's (SSNLF.PK) Galaxy S IV, which has an impressive spec sheet but has seen mixed early reviews, in stride. Apple's sell-side fans are circling the wagons, with Gene Munster comparing the S IV to an 'S' iPhone launch. Nomura is less sanguine: noting the popularity of bigger displays and stating its checks indicate a bigger iPhone won't arrive in 2013, it thinks Samsung could overtake Apple in high-end smartphone shipments this year on the back of 35M-40M S IV and Note sales per quarter. [View news story]
    tons of people have irrational hate against apple. they'd forcefully subject themselves to inferior products just to "stick it to them" ... and forgetting that AAPL generated $13B in *profits* in one quarter alone ... without their pettiness
    Mar 15 11:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon (VZ) states on its Q4 call it activated 6.2M iPhones in Q4, good for 63% of total smartphone activations (up from 46% in Q3, and 56% in the year-ago period). Big Red had previously disclosed it activated 9.8M smartphones in the quarter. CFO Fran Shammo says about half of the iPhone sales involved the iPhone 5 - that remark comes as UBS points to survey data indicating a mix shift towards older and lower-capacity iPhone models. Apple (AAPL) +0.8%. (AT&T smartphone sales[View news story]
    android is winning ... not

    seriously, even with pent-up demand from iPhone 5 launch (which, according to analysts, is a huge disappointment), android is doing very poorly on THE network that prides itself on that stupid hyper-masculine "DROID" robot sci-fi campaign

    samsung's obsession with screen size has backed themselves into a corner with no way out - each iteration must be larger in order to feel like an improvement. S series went from 4.0 to 4.3 to 4.8 and rumor of 5.0. Note series went from 5.3 to 5.5 and rumor of 6.3 ?? What's next? A 6" GS5 and a 7" GN4 ??
    Jan 22 09:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Burn after reading: Scientists who study complex systems say that the world of nanosecond trading is much scarier than what the Street will admit to and has dire consequences for market stability. Not only is the sub-650 millisecond trading zone out of human reach, it has an ecology that has "no sound theoretical understanding." The perfect storm scenario is a wide group of algorithms converging on just a few different strategies - creating a high-frequency trading market vulnerable to uncontrollable herd behavior. [View news story]
    "The perfect storm scenario is a wide group of algorithms converging on just a few different strategies - creating a high-frequency trading market vulnerable to uncontrollable herd behavior."

    wasn't that EXACTLY the reason for the May 2010 flash crash ?
    Feb 16 01:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DJIA murmurings: Three companies that appear at risk of losing their inclusion in the Dow 30 are soon-to-be-split Kraft (KFT -0.9%), sluggish Alcoa (AA +0.3%), and down-in-the-doldrums H-P (HPQ -0.3%). On the flip side, though Apple (AAPL +1.1%) seems to be the logical candidate to make its debut on the index after its rocket ride to a $422B market cap - the firm needs to shed its ultra-high trading price via a stock split and/or special dividend before grabbing the honorific. [View news story]
    instead of Apple splitting, it should be DJIA throwing away their ancient and stupid system of adding up stocks by stock price, regardless of outstanding shares or market cap

    how the LARGEST publicly-traded market cap company on Earth not be included in the "Blue Chip" index is beyond me
    Jan 30 01:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman believes holding China accountable as a currency manipulator would help bring down trade deficits and thus combat high unemployment. The risks of starting a trade war "need to be set against the fact - not the mere possibility - that high unemployment is inflicting tremendous cumulative damage."  [View news story]
    that's absolutely idiotic of him

    once china gets costly, companies would simply to turn to other emerging economies in SE Asia, Eastern Europe, and South America to replace the manufacturing capacity.

    sure it'll cost China big time, but America won't gain anything from it.
    Oct 3 08:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Mania Warranted? [View article]
    this article keeps forgetting that Apple clears $25-30B of revenue and $6B in actual profits every quarter. that's a solid business model, not some hyped up Dot-com 2.0 stock. combine that with zero debt, and you'll see why the stock is actually for the value-investor.

    ps : Apple clears more quarterly profit than either Google or Microsoft.
    Jul 25 06:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment