Larry Livingstone

Market Outlook: Bill Gross Has It Exactly Right

Based on data from the flow of funds report (table L.209) www.federalreserve.gov.../
Total treasury securities held by banks at the end of Q2 is only $125.4B...how do you explain this large difference?

Low Short Rate Trend: Don't Blame China or Anticipated Fed QE

Hi, Where do you get the info on China specific buying by maturity?

Thx much

Don't Short the Fed Yet

Think about it this way...total supply will increase by around 30% this year...total demand from foreigners will have to go down by a minimum of 15% (think shrinking trade surpluses) this means that domestic investors or the fed will have to pick up the slack just to keep them where they are...the risk/reward ratio of shorting them is quite favorable...

U.S. Dealing with a Boatload of Debt - Moody's

The biggest issues with u.s. debt are twofold...1. The debt owed to foreigners as a % of GDP is the highest by far that it has ever been (currently around 20% of GDP) and the highest of the tripple A countries (for example in Japan it is only around 4%) 2. The duration of the debt is the shortest its ever been declining from 5.27 years average duration in 1997 to 4.13 years duration this year...Japan is at around 7 years and climbing...more and more debt at shorter and shorter maturity is the textbook case of bankrupt company...