Objectivity

The Electric Car Battery Battle

Bare-J

Conservation and efficiency go hand in hand.

Back in '89, I was driving another engineer to a meeting. I drove a VW 5 speed, and though gas wasn't very expensive, I coasted down hills on the highway... he asked me why. I told him that in hilly regions like where we were it increased my FE by about 5 mpg.

When he commented that why bother, as it must only save me all the cost of a lunch once a month, I had to reply... "I'm not really saving anything for myself. I'm trying to save oil for our kid's generation..." He thought about it for a minute, then told me he'd be doing the same from then on... if only he drove a stick.

And before some clown starts on about clutch wear or the societal cost of using up a car prematurely or something, I drove that Scirocco nearly 300,000 miles before giving it away to charity... and it still ran good.

The Electric Car Battery Battle

JohnTC...

If you'd seen all of the alpha24-7 posts (I can't say dialogue, that woud imply more from his side than existed), not just here, but other pages, you would have understood.

As for suffering fools, been there, done that, and if they are just misguided souls, it still happens. Freakingly obtuse moronic donkeys with bad attitudes, like alph here... now that's a horse of a different color.

To "schmicknick"... there's a better chance that Ghostbuster's equipment is a plausible scenario than solving harnessed lightning. Or... in the immortal words of Winston Zedimore... "That's a big twinkie!"

The Electric Car Battery Battle

JohnTC...

Here's some objectivity on the subject of autos, fuels, fuel economy, pneumatic storage, and design of the same subjects ... and before you get too excited, this is something a even a 2008 first year engineering student should be able to comprehend...

The problem with any particular motive system isn't whether it is feasible, but whether it is sensible, overall, in the context of it's production and use. Design analysis provides the answer...

Start with this... Good Design is a function of intelligent compromise. Good engineers and designers understand this.

Try also this... in the system we live in (earth) there are clearly limitations in our ability to overly satisfy all of our whims and wants, and sometimes even our needs. Efficiency is the key factor, in many cases, in deciding between success and failure.

Transportation needs (transporting goods, economically necessary travel, etc.) and wants (trips by car to WallyWorld) are both possible when good designs results in efficiencies that enable TOTAL (the integral of the function) Transportation Demand to be met.

When we downsized cars and doubled fuel economy in the 70's, it was a fairly easy exercise. How do I know? Because I was there, and doing it. Why did it happen? BECAUSE we could not, as a nation, meet our fuel demand with the inefficient fleet of 13 mpg autos.

Congress (the People) mandated higher mileage, and The Big Three ordered weight taken from components, and we re-designed and re-tooled to make it happen.

If you had been there at the time, you would have heard plenty of people smart enough to argue why we really needed the bean-counters out of top management then... as they only responded because it was mandated. We were plenty pissed off that once we reached the 27 mpg targets for CAFE, it would all stop, and be effectively rolled back.

Unfortunately, 30 years have effectively rolled by, and we are in far worse a predicament now than we were then.

Crude oil derived gasoline and diesel are "fuels". They exist, are energy rich (high specific btu) can be extracted at extremely high EROEI, are relatively safe, cheap enough (at least in the past) that burning it at 30% efficiency was still fairly economical, etc...

Unfortunately, cheap oil is over.

What REPLACES cheap oil, and how we do it (for transportation need) is the critical problem we face today.

We should have all been driving cars like Audi A2 turbodiesels at 75 mpg long ago. But the beancounters wanted really big profits, and our women wanted SUV's. And the bulk of the human brain-mass of the USA wasn't quite smart enough to see that $1 a gallon gas wasn't a God given right. The bean counters blew the profits, the SUV's sit in garages, but the brain mass that went along with it all seems not to have learned a thing, but to bitch in all the wrong directions.

Idiots who do not understand any of this are all around. Smart loses to stupid in a democracy every time, however, if smart fails to educate stupid first. If you doubt any of this, at this point it's obvious where you stand.

Back to intelligent design... so what is the real problem?

THE PROBLEM IS LACK OF SUFFICIENT, and CHEAP ENOUGH... fuels.

And... their efficient use.

Not alternate energy transfers, or methods... I said FUELS.

Hydrogen isn't a fuel. Why? Because it's an energy SINK, not a SOURCE. If you don't grasp this then go learn, come back, and start again. We will all wait.

Compressed air is also not a fuel. It is like a spring, a pneumatic one. The losses from compressing the air means also, that it is subject to all the iron rules of efficiency that bind us to this struggle. TANSFTAAFL. No perpetual motion machines either. simple right?

Electricity also isn't a fuel. Unless you can harness lightning, that is.

Wind? Actually, yes, in the context of us humans... it's a fuel. But a transient one. WASTED if not captured. Sunlight? Same thing. The issue for both is the capital cost and EROEI of capture, including all inputs and infrastructure. Again... efficiency. Makes sense if it's efficient, but there we go again, design decides. Not idiots with opinions.

Why does any of this matter here?

Because... The PROBLEM is, idiotic nonsense like ... "we can all just have solar powered cars! I saw it on TV!" or "wouldn't it be great if cars could run on water! They can, I heard all about it!" or "chicken waste will be our next oil, I read it in Pop-Mech!" ... abounds whenever those unfit-to-design attempt to force a "solution" onto a problem they cannot even fathom.

Just like bean-counters running car companies.

So... those that understand better start helping the rest learn this quick, otherwise it will be a repeat, and add in more resource wars to boot.

And we don't have time to blow this chance, like we did the last thirty years.

Will Interest in Alternatives Continue if Oil Goes Down?

Modern civilisation requires the well functioning electrical grid to survive. If you doubt that you are clearly not modern, civilised, well, or properly functioning.

Adding capacity to the grid from multiple sources like solar and wind is an insurance policy for all of us... and cheap at any price.

Wind's Our Future, but Natural Gas Is Now

A few points needed here... let's start with wind...

'Intermittent' Wind is really only a local or temporary phenomenon, not so much a national or annual one, especially in a country as large as the USA. For those who don't understand, think of it like this, ONE wind turbine might be idle on any ONE day... but 1000, spread over thousands of square miles, from year to year, will produce roughly the same power annually over time.

For those inclined to simply bark without thinking, try doing the math first... You have to think of it as what it is... a valuable contributor to overall production of kwh's, part of the load balancing act while also producing large amounts of total grid-power over time.

It's why we have base-load coal and Nuclear feeding the same grid as peaker gas Turbines...

Wind is a hands down winner in the quest for sustainable energy.

As to hydrocarbon-to-spark replacement, which is the real issue, Wind adds large amounts of basically carbon-free and hydrocarbon-miniscule Total Energy, at extremely favorable (15:1 typical) EROEI, and in a sustainable fashion... Wind never depletes, you don't need to transport it, refine it, or burn it.

As to the economics, wind power is strongly accretive to the host nation's capital accounts, especially if the actual turbine engineering, production, and maintanence is domestic sourced. Germany and Denmark are world leaders in Wind, and it helps their economies huge.

Is the Ethanol Mandate Likely to be Repealed?

It's a fact of life, and will only get worse... the taxes on oil companies will only rise.

Someday soon, I fear that the US Gov will finally do the currently "unthinkable"... confiscate effectively all profits from public energy companies... with a 90%+ tax rate.

They will use their "Warts on Terriers" justification. It will be speechified that back during WWI & WWII there were "dollar a year men", and that nobody should profit while the "Wart" is on.

Of course, by then, marginal personal income tax rates will probably be over 75%, social sec taxes will be over 25%, unemployment will be 50%+ (except for government employee types)...

And smart Americans will already be living and working in Russia, sending care packages by DHL back to their unlucky brethren.

Global Investing, BRIC by BRIC

I got a bit lucky ElCid... I sold a pretty good chunk of Gazprom holding company Vostok Gas at the peak of $97 a share over a month ago, first time I took profits in Vostok since first buying at about $12 - $14 a share (and cashed in a spinoff that got my basis to $0) a few years ago... still haven't bought those shares back yet ($65 today) but I will. That's not too bad, is it? Basis $0, sale $97?

Don't let the western Media fool you. Medvedev is no puppet, and Putin is no puppeteer. As to Abramavich, I have a pretty good idea why he hasn't been prosecuted, and it isn't why you think... and he's not exactly friends with Putin, that's a myth.

Russia for most Westerners is a fog... and the would be Rulers of Russia (not Putin, his enemies) want it that way.

Is the Ethanol Mandate Likely to be Repealed?

From a Chemical Engineer with good knowledge of the process of distilling ethanol...

______________________...

"...The energy balance for ethanol production is a matter of some controversy. Typical energy input for a state-of-the-art process like the one I have described is about 34,000 BTU per gallon of fuel ethanol. Average ethanol input for actual plants in operation, most of which are older and not state of the art, is considerable higher at about 52,000 BTU/gal. Many plants are old or small and do not use molecular sieve dryers for ethanol purification, relying on a third distillation step that consumes more energy than the dryers. Older plants also do not feature all the energy recycling and can require 80,000 or more BTU to produce a gallon of fuel ethanol. As the energy content of ethanol is about 84,000 BTU/gallon, these old plants sometime consumed more energy to make the ethanol than what was contained in the product. Even the state-of-the art process requires energy equal to about 40% of the energy in the product to manufacture fuel ethanol. The effect of plant efficiency has affected the conclusions of studies looking at the total energy efficiency of corn to ethanol conversion..."

______________________...

I had stated over 30,000 btu per gallon ethanol as a good estimate of distillation EROEI input-quant... I also pointed out that those who did not well design systems (as state of the art here shows) would probably expend much more, witness the evidence of Mr. Miller's chosen study... it required roughly 3 times what state of the art systems described above use.... but, (and to you too, Mr. Miller) you see, these values as I at first projected and then teased from your chosen study data prove what is required...

And remember, this is simply the distillation step... all other processing inputs are ignored.

Giving Ethanol refiners tax credits encourages wasteful practices and bad engineering design justified by banker logic... money as the end all and be all.

Back in the late 70's, Smoky Yunick (who else alive reading SA besides me knows who Smoky even is, I wonder...) said that someday mankind would come to it's senses and use BTU's as a currency, instead of mythical electronic notional currency units, such as the unbacked dollar really is. He observed that it would change behavior, worldwide, for the better. Wasteful practices that "seemed smart by bankers" would be exposed for the fraud that it truly was.

Smoky was right. The hypesters and banksters are wrong.

The Answer to Energy Independence

Regarding Larry Kudlow and his "drill,drill,drill"...

Long ago (well over 27 years ago actually), a friend of mine left the midwest to "make his fortune" in the west Texas oil biz, he wanted to start as a roughneck and "work his way up"... he was also convinced then we could "drill our way out of the oil crisis... (unfortunately perhaps for him, as it turned out he didn't last long as a roughneck).

I remember at the time, wishing him luck of course, but advising him of several facts...

If oil is finite (an obvious truth) one day it would no longer be an "energy source"... but would take more energy and resources to get than it would be worth to burn, and oil wells would exist as a raw feedstock mineral (material) mining, instead of energy mining... and may not be exactly a growing career... of course the world Peak took longer to reach than I thought at the time...

If oil is infinite, and the USA, which had hosted more oil wells than the rest of the world all put together, had been so thoroughly drilled, basically a giant pincushion full of pins... and yet oil production in the USA had already peaked, maybe it would be a smart thing to stop, and please, rethink the policy of "Drain America First", which was the basis of all prior policy... and better perhaps to sign long term supply agreements with OPEC countries at fair prices for them, so as to preserve as long as possible domestic reserves...

And, as a last thought, while still wishing him well in his personal endeavour, I asked him to please ask every smart guy he met to please clue him in on the reality of oil extraction and reserves. It was maddening back then without free internet info to get enough Annual Reports each year to read about oil reserves...

Several years later, he introduced me to a multi-well owner, who, when hearing my thoughts on oil, said that the realities for him were, he had to exploit wells in a way that was short term oriented, but long term stupid, because of interest rate (cost of capital) pressures, and banker partners demands for quick ROI. He capped many productive wells after they were allowed to flow at too high a rate, because of his partners pressure to produce... and the depletion rate just fell off a cliff on too many. Interest Rates (capital cost) were higher back then, but the reality was that it largely decided well management... I'm sure it still applies today, even if to a slightly lesser degree.

Oil prices were much lower then, but the dynamic still exists. Drilling to get "today's profit" often limits total resource recovery.

Banker driven oil exploitation decisions need to be completely re-examined. It was obvious to me long ago...

Oil was priced as if it had no intrinsic value... bankers decided to price and figure as if it was infinite supply, priced at the marginal barrel... hell, even the term "Production" galled me no end... I was in Manufacturing Industries, I knew what "Production" was, oil wasn't production, it was extraction! You couldn't just "produce" oil... You found it, extracted it, refiined it, burned it... and then it was gone. I could recycle the steel in a car and "produce" another one...

Pricing it as though it was just "wellhead cost plus" was nonsense, and while the world accepted this nonsense, the smart thing to do was to buy it on the cheap from OPEC as much as possible.

If we don't recognize the wasteful practices that got us into this mess in the first place, we are doomed to a worse nightmare than can be described here if we just cut the bankers loose... and if you do not believe that bankers run the oil business, I suggest you do some research. Read between the lines on any Oil company Annual report, and you'll see how quarterly profit rules. Why do you think Shell allowed itself to be so lax in reporting reserves?

To squander the slim balance of US reserves in a mad rush to drill for a quick buck while leaving the country deep in debt in the meanwhile, is not only foolhardy, but is a travesty of inter-generational theft.

Profit from the Peak: An Enjoyable Read About Our Energy Problems

Piggybank... You're on the correct path...

Learn all you can. Stay calm, as the truth is fairly frightening. Make every conscious decision of yours as to how to live a referendum on the facts as best you can discover them. Try very hard to focus on how to make it a tiny bit better, every day... but it isn't easy.

Show those you care about that their welfare drives your concern. And if you are spiritual or religious, take strength and comfort from that.

Is the Ethanol Mandate Likely to be Repealed?

OJ's lawyer has left the building.

Is the Ethanol Mandate Likely to be Repealed?

Fireball...

Sorry about your father. Losing mine was the hardest day in my life.

You'll see him in the next world. Take care of your kids and he'll be the proudest. That will be your happiest day.

Is the Ethanol Mandate Likely to be Repealed?

Evidence... ahh... if only he would answer one time...

Do the EROEI calc on your own posted study. Just consider the natgas. Do it. And post it here. Then I'll go thru it all.

Can't do it? Or won't?

It's one or the other.

Is the Ethanol Mandate Likely to be Repealed?

Fireball...

Let me tell you a bit about where I'm coming from in telling you about my choice of Gazprom as a lifeboat for my children...

Since I was a boy (over 40 years ago) I was extremely concerned about energy issues, and it has guided my life all these years... school, work, lifestyle...

My concern for mankind's future was multiplied 100 fold with the birth of my first child... it has increased continually since...

If I could just wave a magic wand and make it all go away (our problems) believe me, I'd wave a telephone pole.

About 20 years ago, I had to turn down a chance to work on the Tokamak program at Princeton... I took a different job at the time to better help some friends of mine in Detroit who needed the work I could manage instead... I helped some friends and their families, but I've regretted every second not taking the other path...

Even when oil was cheap (foolishly priced) I lived as though it was dear... a gift from God (like a bank account buried) that would make possible billions of souls... waste was a real sin in my mind.

I worked in Russia, Germany, Poland, Italy, other eastern Europe and CIS countries... and learned first hand what physical poverty coupled with mental and spiritual richness looked like, first hand.

If you have kids, they will be among a generation that curses their forebears for the mess we hand them... all you can do is inflate a lifeboat for them... and get them tough enough mentally to deal with what is coming, without them losing their blessed souls in the process.

If people in this country had faced the unpleasant facts 30+ years ago, we would not be in this mess. Unfortunately, as you can see here at S-A, too many charlatans pretend THEY have the answers, even when they do not even know the basics of God's laws, or worse, they know them, but deceive in presenting "facts" that are not, for some personal gain.

Is the Ethanol Mandate Likely to be Repealed?

Fireball... do your own DD but here is my plan... for my children's sake...

Buy Gazprom ADR's...
Buy it when it's valued cheaply (every price it's ever sold at)...
Buy it when it's expensive (never has been yet)...
Buy it when they bash it in the West (it's a ploy)...
Buy it when Gazprom announces bad news (rare, but it happens)...

Hold it until the world realizes that N-G and Nuclear and Conservation and Wind is the best bridge we have until the fusion-tokamak boys actually achieve a workable reactor. Maybe 100 years from now... and pray they succeed...

Of course, the coming resource wars will probably wipe out 6 billion + before the tokamak boys succeed... so say your prayers and ask Christ to be merciful on you and your family, and be merciful to the doomed who will be starving while you wait for the end...