Owen's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/229852/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1316321/comments?source=feed#comment-17253391 17253391
Anyone, private or government, who had the computing power to crack a double SHA-256 hash would find far better uses for that ability than taking down Bitcoin.]]> Fri, 05 Apr 2013 06:05:15 -0400
Anyone, private or government, who had the computing power to crack a double SHA-256 hash would find far better uses for that ability than taking down Bitcoin.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1316321/comments?source=feed#comment-17143221 17143221
Is "for all intensive purposes" pidgin for "for all intents and purposes"?]]> Tue, 02 Apr 2013 22:41:13 -0400
Is "for all intensive purposes" pidgin for "for all intents and purposes"?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1299711/comments?source=feed#comment-16928011 16928011 TLT) and cited the risk in income by not doing so. I decided to buy one share. That share is down -6.31% since I purchased it."

So in your mind, Mr. Wells, the fact that an investment is down six percent in six months is enough to prove it was a poor choice?

I'm not a fan of bonds either, but I base that on fundamental analysis, not just on fluctuations over the past six months.]]> Thu, 28 Mar 2013 09:22:53 -0400 TLT) and cited the risk in income by not doing so. I decided to buy one share. That share is down -6.31% since I purchased it."

So in your mind, Mr. Wells, the fact that an investment is down six percent in six months is enough to prove it was a poor choice?

I'm not a fan of bonds either, but I base that on fundamental analysis, not just on fluctuations over the past six months.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1299711/comments?source=feed#comment-16834011 16834011
I just did exactly that. I plugged in the numbers for GIS and for the S&P for the last three years into a spreadsheet, and calculated the Beta as per the standard formula. The result, not surprisingly, was 0.4305, or about 43%. By all means, please do so yourself to verify.

The Yahoo Finance pages are riddled with inaccuracies and outright mistakes. I'm surprised that an analyst with your experience doesn't take one look at the chart and realize that a stock that mimics the market movements so closely shows up with a Beta of _negative_ 0.01, of all things. There are some numbers you don't have to calculate to four decimals to realize the quoted figure is bogus.

Please, take the time to correct your article and provide data you either derived yourself or taken from a reliable, trustworthy source.]]> Tue, 26 Mar 2013 13:32:42 -0400
I just did exactly that. I plugged in the numbers for GIS and for the S&P for the last three years into a spreadsheet, and calculated the Beta as per the standard formula. The result, not surprisingly, was 0.4305, or about 43%. By all means, please do so yourself to verify.

The Yahoo Finance pages are riddled with inaccuracies and outright mistakes. I'm surprised that an analyst with your experience doesn't take one look at the chart and realize that a stock that mimics the market movements so closely shows up with a Beta of _negative_ 0.01, of all things. There are some numbers you don't have to calculate to four decimals to realize the quoted figure is bogus.

Please, take the time to correct your article and provide data you either derived yourself or taken from a reliable, trustworthy source.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1288741/comments?source=feed#comment-16826211 16826211
If your broker is willing to find shares to short and cover that fee for you, be sure to buy him a nice Christmas gift.]]> Tue, 26 Mar 2013 11:15:25 -0400
If your broker is willing to find shares to short and cover that fee for you, be sure to buy him a nice Christmas gift.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1299861/comments?source=feed#comment-16813681 16813681
If you're looking to hedge your SPY exposure by replacing it, replace it with cash. That would give you a perfect hedge.

This article clearly states it tries to find the best way to hedge S&P 500 exposure. Why speculate on what the author means when he says it so clearly?

In the world of finance, "hedge" has a clear definition. Of the options listed, the SH ETF is the only true hedge, although the author fails to explain why shorting the index isn't a viable alternative.

SPLV and VQT may very well be a great investment, but they have nothing to do with hedging one's S&P exposure.]]> Tue, 26 Mar 2013 06:18:53 -0400
If you're looking to hedge your SPY exposure by replacing it, replace it with cash. That would give you a perfect hedge.

This article clearly states it tries to find the best way to hedge S&P 500 exposure. Why speculate on what the author means when he says it so clearly?

In the world of finance, "hedge" has a clear definition. Of the options listed, the SH ETF is the only true hedge, although the author fails to explain why shorting the index isn't a viable alternative.

SPLV and VQT may very well be a great investment, but they have nothing to do with hedging one's S&P exposure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1299711/comments?source=feed#comment-16813291 16813291 http://tinyurl.com/cyj...]]> Tue, 26 Mar 2013 05:41:02 -0400 http://tinyurl.com/cyj...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/908931?source=feed#comment-16811921 16811921
If they want to achieve a 2% target inflation, should they be _selling_ government bonds?]]> Tue, 26 Mar 2013 04:55:18 -0400
If they want to achieve a 2% target inflation, should they be _selling_ government bonds?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1299861/comments?source=feed#comment-16811611 16811611
VXZ and AGG are, statistically speaking, a hedge, but a rather ineffectual one. The correlation between either of them to the S&P is negative, but far from minus one. For example, you'd need about $5m in AGG to hedge $1m in SPY. I don't know where you got those "99%/100%" figures you quote.

The final one, SH, is a true hedge, but with a high frictional cost associated with such ETFs. I'm not sure what your particular situation is that prevents you from directly selling or shorting SPY, but the most efficient way to hedge the S&P is using the tool that was created specifically for that purpose in 1997, the E-mini S&P futures contract. With a tracking error of less than 0.1%, no management fees, huge liquidity around the clock, and commissions as low as $2.50 per $75k contract, no other method comes close. When institutional investors want to hedge the S&P, they use S&P futures.]]> Tue, 26 Mar 2013 04:18:54 -0400
VXZ and AGG are, statistically speaking, a hedge, but a rather ineffectual one. The correlation between either of them to the S&P is negative, but far from minus one. For example, you'd need about $5m in AGG to hedge $1m in SPY. I don't know where you got those "99%/100%" figures you quote.

The final one, SH, is a true hedge, but with a high frictional cost associated with such ETFs. I'm not sure what your particular situation is that prevents you from directly selling or shorting SPY, but the most efficient way to hedge the S&P is using the tool that was created specifically for that purpose in 1997, the E-mini S&P futures contract. With a tracking error of less than 0.1%, no management fees, huge liquidity around the clock, and commissions as low as $2.50 per $75k contract, no other method comes close. When institutional investors want to hedge the S&P, they use S&P futures.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/907061?source=feed#comment-16793231 16793231
Yes, and with a solid balance sheet. That was true for 100 years--until 2008, when they over-leveraged themselves for the Folgers acquisition. Their balance sheet is much uglier now.]]> Mon, 25 Mar 2013 17:23:32 -0400
Yes, and with a solid balance sheet. That was true for 100 years--until 2008, when they over-leveraged themselves for the Folgers acquisition. Their balance sheet is much uglier now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/907061?source=feed#comment-16766471 16766471
If Smucker was willing to shell out this kind of preferred dividend, I'm sure Buffett would listen, but the common stock itself is too expensive for his usual taste. Furthermore, their recent overzealous acquisition of Folgers is sure to turn him off, the same way Kraft's acquisition of Cadbury did.

I don't know about GWW, but MKC is obscenely overpriced. I don't think he'd even go for a 9% preferred on that one.]]> Mon, 25 Mar 2013 10:05:31 -0400
If Smucker was willing to shell out this kind of preferred dividend, I'm sure Buffett would listen, but the common stock itself is too expensive for his usual taste. Furthermore, their recent overzealous acquisition of Folgers is sure to turn him off, the same way Kraft's acquisition of Cadbury did.

I don't know about GWW, but MKC is obscenely overpriced. I don't think he'd even go for a 9% preferred on that one.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1285211/comments?source=feed#comment-16483311 16483311
The dilemma is what to do next. We know that 20% of the population smokes marijuana, an offence punishable by 5 years imprisonment, but finding out who smokes and who doesn't takes a lot of work. So, should we randomly pick 20% of the people and toss them in jail, or should we send every citizen, smoker or not, to jail for one year, spreading the pain more evenly? Clearly, _someone_ has to pay for all that weed smoking.]]> Tue, 19 Mar 2013 07:33:12 -0400
The dilemma is what to do next. We know that 20% of the population smokes marijuana, an offence punishable by 5 years imprisonment, but finding out who smokes and who doesn't takes a lot of work. So, should we randomly pick 20% of the people and toss them in jail, or should we send every citizen, smoker or not, to jail for one year, spreading the pain more evenly? Clearly, _someone_ has to pay for all that weed smoking.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892711?source=feed#comment-16436861 16436861
No, it's not illegal to have an offshore account, but it is illegal for a U.S. citizen or resident to avoid declaring his or her worldwide earnings to the IRS, which is what those people did. Most offshore bank accounts are open to circumvent paying income taxes, not for the view from the Alps.]]> Mon, 18 Mar 2013 10:36:32 -0400
No, it's not illegal to have an offshore account, but it is illegal for a U.S. citizen or resident to avoid declaring his or her worldwide earnings to the IRS, which is what those people did. Most offshore bank accounts are open to circumvent paying income taxes, not for the view from the Alps.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892711?source=feed#comment-16424401 16424401
LOL! Good use of the meme.]]> Mon, 18 Mar 2013 02:21:59 -0400
LOL! Good use of the meme.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892711?source=feed#comment-16424351 16424351 lining up...I can sense it."

You can "sense it"? You realize we do, actually, have news agencies who monitor and report such things, don't you? Between Reuters, AP and Bloomberg, there's really no reason to use divination to figure out what's happening in Europe.]]> Mon, 18 Mar 2013 02:17:41 -0400 lining up...I can sense it."

You can "sense it"? You realize we do, actually, have news agencies who monitor and report such things, don't you? Between Reuters, AP and Bloomberg, there's really no reason to use divination to figure out what's happening in Europe.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892721?source=feed#comment-16419871 16419871 Sun, 17 Mar 2013 22:29:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892711?source=feed#comment-16419571 16419571
There is more Russian Mafia money in Hartford, Connecticut than there is in Cyprus.]]> Sun, 17 Mar 2013 22:18:06 -0400
There is more Russian Mafia money in Hartford, Connecticut than there is in Cyprus.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892721?source=feed#comment-16418981 16418981 Sun, 17 Mar 2013 21:59:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892721?source=feed#comment-16418531 16418531
"Cypress" - the tree or the semiconductor company?

It's hard to take your opinion seriously when you don't even know the difference between a conifer and a Mediterranean island.]]> Sun, 17 Mar 2013 21:43:33 -0400
"Cypress" - the tree or the semiconductor company?

It's hard to take your opinion seriously when you don't even know the difference between a conifer and a Mediterranean island.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892711?source=feed#comment-16418141 16418141
That is not the case with the Cypriot depositors who did nothing illegal, and woke up to find their account frozen, with a 10% chunk to be removed on Tuesday.

The "Russian oligarch" tale is nonsense. If the authorities had proof of any illegal activity, those accounts would have been (correctly!) confiscated in their entirety.]]> Sun, 17 Mar 2013 21:28:36 -0400
That is not the case with the Cypriot depositors who did nothing illegal, and woke up to find their account frozen, with a 10% chunk to be removed on Tuesday.

The "Russian oligarch" tale is nonsense. If the authorities had proof of any illegal activity, those accounts would have been (correctly!) confiscated in their entirety.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892721?source=feed#comment-16417901 16417901
In the end, the reason governments chase more power is that governing is easier when you have more power. There's no evil conspiracy here; it's just that protecting human- or property rights is a major hassle.]]> Sun, 17 Mar 2013 21:22:43 -0400
In the end, the reason governments chase more power is that governing is easier when you have more power. There's no evil conspiracy here; it's just that protecting human- or property rights is a major hassle.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892721?source=feed#comment-16417661 16417661 Sun, 17 Mar 2013 21:17:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892721?source=feed#comment-16416771 16416771
Where do you see that? It sounds like the 10% asset grab is going through, despite its contravention of EU regulations.]]> Sun, 17 Mar 2013 20:47:46 -0400
Where do you see that? It sounds like the 10% asset grab is going through, despite its contravention of EU regulations.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892721?source=feed#comment-16416041 16416041
True, Cyprus is a tiny economy. But if the rest of Europe see how the EU allows the Cypriots to get away with such blatant treaty violations, I'm sure other European nations--much bigger ones--might think of trying the same. And when that starts, the only safe place for money in Europe is Switzerland, outside the EU.]]> Sun, 17 Mar 2013 20:26:25 -0400
True, Cyprus is a tiny economy. But if the rest of Europe see how the EU allows the Cypriots to get away with such blatant treaty violations, I'm sure other European nations--much bigger ones--might think of trying the same. And when that starts, the only safe place for money in Europe is Switzerland, outside the EU.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281391/comments?source=feed#comment-16415641 16415641
You are incorrect. Buffett himself claimed he has no say in their choices. And indeed, some of the stocks they bought are completely contrary to Buffett's own selection methodology.

Unlike in most companies, these two lieutenants have complete autonomy in the portfolio they manage, so long as they don't use leverage to force Berkshire into a bigger commitment than their allotted budget.]]> Sun, 17 Mar 2013 20:14:22 -0400
You are incorrect. Buffett himself claimed he has no say in their choices. And indeed, some of the stocks they bought are completely contrary to Buffett's own selection methodology.

Unlike in most companies, these two lieutenants have complete autonomy in the portfolio they manage, so long as they don't use leverage to force Berkshire into a bigger commitment than their allotted budget.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892711?source=feed#comment-16415391 16415391
Any bailout is a waste of money. If the Cypriot leaders are determined to scuttle the ship, even Germany is powerless to stop them, and would be a fool to try.]]> Sun, 17 Mar 2013 20:08:47 -0400
Any bailout is a waste of money. If the Cypriot leaders are determined to scuttle the ship, even Germany is powerless to stop them, and would be a fool to try.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281391/comments?source=feed#comment-16413851 16413851
Buffett himself likely has a strong aversion for U.S. based airlines and auto makers, based various statements he made in the last few years.]]> Sun, 17 Mar 2013 19:12:10 -0400
Buffett himself likely has a strong aversion for U.S. based airlines and auto makers, based various statements he made in the last few years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1264511/comments?source=feed#comment-16155081 16155081
Now, that's a conveniently circular argument. Basically what you're saying is, the shares are up because when something is moving, there must be a reason for the move, therefore there's a reason for them to be up.

And by the way, the quip goes, "Where there's smoke, there's fire". The way you said it doesn't even make the case you're trying to make, circular as it is.]]> Mon, 11 Mar 2013 19:47:00 -0400
Now, that's a conveniently circular argument. Basically what you're saying is, the shares are up because when something is moving, there must be a reason for the move, therefore there's a reason for them to be up.

And by the way, the quip goes, "Where there's smoke, there's fire". The way you said it doesn't even make the case you're trying to make, circular as it is.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1260411/comments?source=feed#comment-16068401 16068401 AMZN) had a P/E above 900 and yet the stock appreciated during that same time period by over 50%, not bad for a horribly overpriced stock.

That's right - buying shares in the hope that an even greater fool will buy them from you at a yet higher price is a sound investment strategy.]]> Sat, 09 Mar 2013 09:03:33 -0500 AMZN) had a P/E above 900 and yet the stock appreciated during that same time period by over 50%, not bad for a horribly overpriced stock.

That's right - buying shares in the hope that an even greater fool will buy them from you at a yet higher price is a sound investment strategy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/878311?source=feed#comment-16068261 16068261
Is there an established correlation between wealth and the number of Big Macs sold, or is this yet another attempt to take an isolated number and try to deduce the health of the entire economy from it?]]> Sat, 09 Mar 2013 08:59:45 -0500
Is there an established correlation between wealth and the number of Big Macs sold, or is this yet another attempt to take an isolated number and try to deduce the health of the entire economy from it?]]>