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Owen

Owen
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  • The Potemkin Parking Lot: Related Party Transactions And Questionable Revenue Recognition At Kandi Technologies [View article]
    Where did the other half of the comments go? We had over 80 comments a few minutes ago, and now there are only 41. Someone is really busy with that "Delete" button. I wonder how long this comment will stay up...
    Jan 27, 2015. 12:59 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiffany's Growth Is More Than Priced In; Look Out Below [View article]
    This article would have been useful last Friday, when the stock was trading at $104. But now, valuing an $88 stock at $75 isn't much of a revelation, and leaves almost no margin of safety for a potential trade.
    Jan 13, 2015. 12:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Fooled By This DCF Valuation: Nike Is Overvalued, Not Undervalued [View article]
    Correct. Well-established brand names can be evaluated more accurately, since their contribution to future earnings can be assessed based on its contribution to past earnings.

    Better predictability means lower volatility, which in turn allows us to use a smaller margin of safety in evaluating a company, and as you pointed out, a lower DCF discount rate. This is exactly the premium provided by a strong, mature brand name. Adding another premium on top of that would double count that benefit.
    Jan 7, 2015. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Cashed Out Most Of My LendingClub Shares [View article]
    The 60 million share number _is_ fully dilutive. The 372 million shares that haven't been issued aren't dilutive, since if and when they are issued, they'll be sold to the public to raise additional capital, not issued as a bonus to employees.

    Taking the numbers from a company's regulatory filing makes more sense than going by their prospectus. I find it hard to believe that Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo and all other financial reporting agencies got the market cap wrong, while only Mr. Wu has it right.

    You'd be well advised to admit your mistake and correct it, if you want your analyses to be taken seriously.
    Jan 7, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Fooled By This DCF Valuation: Nike Is Overvalued, Not Undervalued [View article]
    Companies have a brand premium at the stage when there are enough people who aren't familiar with the brand, and will increase future sales once they become familiar with it.

    Once people who already know the brand are existing customers, their contribution to cashflow is already included in the current financial statements, and there's no need to add it again.
    Jan 6, 2015. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Cashed Out Most Of My LendingClub Shares [View article]
    According to the 10-Q, the number of diluted weighted average common shares outstanding is 59,844,394. The additional 372 million shares authorised have not been issued. If and when issued, they will increase the paid-in equity and capital base of the company accordingly.

    You can't count non-issued shares as part of its market cap. The market cap, based on current outstanding share count, and all available financial sources, is $1.36B, not $12B.

    Please check your numbers again. LC is nowhere near the market cap of the top 20 banks.
    Jan 6, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Fooled By This DCF Valuation: Nike Is Overvalued, Not Undervalued [View article]
    > For sure, the company has an incredible strong brand name that should be considered as well. <

    The only value of a strong brand name is its ability to generate sales. Nike isn't exactly a new brand; any impact its brand name has is already baked into the current FCF. There is no "considered as well". Without its strong brand name, it wouldn't even generate the sales it currently does. Adding a premium for the Nike brand results in double counting the same asset.
    Jan 6, 2015. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caesars Entertainment gains more support for restructuring plan [View news story]
    @atrickpay - Perhaps, or at the very least, a violation of the loan agreement covenants.

    I'm not trying to defend the company, and like many here, I am also short the stock. I was just trying to understand whether there is more happening than what was publicly disclosed, and whether Mike12369 was somehow privy to this non-public information.
    Dec 15, 2014. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caesars Entertainment gains more support for restructuring plan [View news story]
    So if everything is in the filings, where is the "deceit"? Deception requires hiding or misrepresenting facts. So far, you haven't shown us any of that.

    If they tell investors they're going to fleece them, then proceed to do exactly that, there's no deception involved.
    Dec 12, 2014. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caesars Entertainment gains more support for restructuring plan [View news story]
    > It is laughable to me the deceit they are pulling off in the last 12-18 months <

    "Deceit"? Why, what are they doing that isn't fully disclosed in their regulatory filings, and how did you find out about it?
    Dec 12, 2014. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caesars Entertainment gains more support for restructuring plan [View news story]
    How likely is the debt restructuring plan to leave any value in the hands of the CZR equity holders?
    Dec 12, 2014. 07:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why LinkedIn Is Undervalued [View article]
    The title of this article is "Why LinkedIn Is Undervalued", but all I see here are convincing arguments on why it is valued lower than Facebook and Twitter.

    That would only imply LinkedIn is undervalued if we take a leap of faith and assume FB and TWTR are fairly valued.

    It's the old retail trick: take a $1,000 suit, put a "$3,000" price tag on it, cross it out and write "$1,500" below, and now it's a bargain.
    Dec 11, 2014. 04:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AutoCanada: An Easy Short [View article]
    Thank you!
    Dec 8, 2014. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freshpet Inc.: A Fresh JOBS Act Short [View article]
    "and assuming a ~9-year life for fridges (warranty is 3 years)"

    While the evaporator fans of a commercial refrigerator typically need to be replaced every 3-5 years, the compressor and other parts typically have a much longer life. The U.S. Department of Energy uses 10 years as typical for commercial fridges (http://bit.ly/1ypMyUc), so I don't see the 9 year life assumption in the S-1 as overly aggressive.
    Dec 6, 2014. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AutoCanada: An Easy Short [View article]
    Well done, Kevin!

    Based on current fundamentals, what would you say is the fair value for the stock?
    Dec 4, 2014. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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