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Owen

Owen
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  • Hain Celestial: 2 Charts The Bulls Don't Want You To See [View article]
    Thank you, Howard, but that still doesn't tell me how much, based on your analysis, the company is worth. Or am I supposed to do that myself, while your pointing and laughing at the adjustments concludes your analysis?

    I don't think a fair value assessment is too much to ask from an analyst publishing an article about a company.
    Nov 19, 2014. 04:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hain Celestial: 2 Charts The Bulls Don't Want You To See [View article]
    @kblover: Well said.

    While excessive adjustments are often a red flag, an informed choice to buy or to sell the stock should be based on fundamentals like earnings and book value, and I don't see any of those here. Charting the count of adjustments is interesting, but doesn't really tell us whether the stock is overpriced or not.

    I realize that SA authors get paid for page-views, not for the usefulness of their work. But that is no excuse to publish articles that lack any substantive analytical value.

    If it weren't for the adjustments, what would the company report? How much would it be fairly valued at, based on those fundamentals? Take the time, do the research, and publish a useful report.
    Nov 19, 2014. 11:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    Wouldn't it be easier, not to mention less embarrassing, for you at this point to admit you simply were wrong about the company currently known as Sears Holdings never going through bankruptcy? This page alone is full of links proving the opposite.

    Either way, it's all good. Dinner is ready, I'm off to merge with some food.
    Nov 14, 2014. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    Eddie Lampert yada yada hedge fund yada yada fulcrum security.

    There was no "merger". In a real merger, the owners of both merged companies end up owning shares in the combined entity. In 2004, Sears Roebuck was insolvent. Its liabilities far exceeded its assets. It was saved the indignation of Chapter 11 by an eleventh hour saviour. The shareholders of Sears got nothing when the assets of the failing company were acquired by--not merged with--the new Kmart, which has just emerged from bankruptcy itself.

    Sears Holdings Corp is the same company that, in 2002, under a different name, declared bankruptcy. Since then, it bought Sears, changed its name, bought Lands End, sold Lands End, and did a few other manoeuvres that, once again, brought it to the brink of bankruptcy today. If all of this is too confusing to follow, it's because apparatchiks like the ones we see here are doing their best to obfuscate the story.

    Will there be another white knight to save it from the humiliation of Chapter 11? Either way, just like with the now-defunct Sears, Roebuck & Co., the shareholders will get nothing in such a transaction. You can call it a "merger", a "pooling of interests", or a "scrambled egg", the outcome is the same. The acquired company is absorbed into the balance sheet of the acquirer, the bondholders get some or all of what they're owed, and the shareholders of the absorbed company end with their idkmybffjill in their hand.
    Nov 14, 2014. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    So...CNN, the SEC and everyone was just lying about the bankruptcy?
    Nov 13, 2014. 10:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    idkmybffjill, your attempts are admirable, but none of that babble changes the fact that SHLD, formerly known as Kmart, did in fact go through bankruptcy, as I originally said.

    But please, don't let that slow down your pathetic ad-hominem attacks. I realize that now that the truth is out, such attacks are all you've got left.
    Nov 13, 2014. 08:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    On January 22, 2002, Kmart filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection: http://abcn.ws/1GUiG9L, http://cnnmon.ie/1GUiG9N.

    On November 17, 2004, Kmart changed its name to Sears Holdings Corporation: http://cnnmon.ie/1GUiFCK, http://bit.ly/1GUiG9T.

    Are you on Sears' payroll? If so, they should hire someone smarter to do their spin-doctoring. Rewriting history and calling people "troll" doesn't quite cut it, darling.
    Nov 13, 2014. 07:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    "Kmart merged with Sears, Roebuck in 2005 to form Sears Holdings."

    No; Kmart, after emerging from bankruptcy, _bought_ the assets of the failing Sears, and changed its name to "Sears Holdings". The company trading under the ticker SHLD emerged from bankruptcy in 2004.

    If you want to erase history, I'm afraid you'll have to try a bit harder than that.
    Nov 13, 2014. 06:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    Just to remind you all, both Sears and K-Mart already went through bankruptcy before. What we now call "Sears" is the renamed K-Mart after it bought in 2004 the assets of the now-defunct Sears, Roebuck & Company.

    Now, this isn't Highlander, and there can certainly be more than one winner, but having lost the retail game to Walmart _twice_, I don't see how Sears can reasonably expect to survive against an even bigger, more efficient Walmart this time around.

    The only hope I can see for Sears is if J.C. Penney collapses first, emerges from bankruptcy flush with cash, and buys the remaining assets of Sears. The merged retailer will also eventually fail, of course, but it will do so under a different stock ticker.
    Nov 12, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    @fxfx, my experience with hard-to-borrow shorts has been mixed. In some cases, I was able to cover the position within weeks at a substantial profit, so the borrowing fee was a negligible issue. In other cases, I ended up getting impatient and closing the position to stop the borrowing fee bleeding, and occasionally regretting doing so.

    There may be easier shorts than SHLD out there. Indeed, it is far from my only short position, but it's one I feel relatively confident about. While there may be some debate over the value of their tangible assets, most notably their real estate, I don't expect any magical turnaround in the operations side of things.

    So the only question is, how long will we endure this slow decline before they officially throw in the towel. If it takes too long, my direct shorting strategy will likely end in a loss. This scenario is not unlikely, and I am fully prepared for a loss if that's the case.
    Nov 10, 2014. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    "certainly, and that will be the longs imho - simply because he is the longest long around."

    @fxfx, that may very well be the case. I never delude myself into thinking any bet I make is a "sure thing". In fact, I wish more people subscribed to your view, as that would reduce the exorbitant borrowing fee I'm currently paying for this short...
    Nov 10, 2014. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    fxfx, these are all valid points.

    However, seeing as the longs and the shorts are betting on opposite outcomes, I don't see how Mr. Lampert could be "playing us _all_". He must, by simple logic, be playing right into the hands of _some_ of us, even if it's the option writers who bet the stock won't move much.

    What about those who don't have any position on the stock - is Lampert "playing" them too?

    Therefore, I can only conclude that Fast Lane's paranoia-driven sweeping statement is false on its face.
    Nov 10, 2014. 06:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    "Eddie Lampert is playing all of you"

    How exactly is he "playing" those of us who are short SHLD?

    Are you under the impression that any money he makes comes out of my pocket? How does that work, exactly? I stand to make a fair amount of money if Sears goes under.
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    Deborah,

    Eddie Lampert is worth $3.1 billion. A $40M home represents 1.3% of his net worth. Proportion-wise, that's the equivalent of an average American worth $300k living in his 2005 Buick.

    The reason people like you rarely become rich is that you are too easily distracted by shiny baubles or ridden by envy, and lack the ability to see the big picture.
    Nov 9, 2014. 06:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues [View article]
    "was the author drunk when he published this article?"

    Not to engage in personal attacks, but his profile picture certainly makes you wonder.
    Nov 9, 2014. 03:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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