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Owen

Owen
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  • Yahoo Tying Its Future Even More Closely To Alibaba Is Worrying [View article]
    "Cash is worth cash. YHOO has $4B of that + mkt sec."

    I see $1.2B cash plus $1.7B marketable securities minus $1.2B in long-term debt and $1.2B in deferred long-term liabilities, for a net cash of just $0.5B.

    If we're doing balance sheet analysis, let's do it properly. Excluding Alibaba, the company does not have anything close to $4B in net tangible liquid assets.
    Jul 16 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Tying Its Future Even More Closely To Alibaba Is Worrying [View article]
    "If Alibaba does well or exceedingly well post IPO, a definite possibility, and Yahoo! eventually makes solid progress with its turnaround"

    Why bother with a turnaround at all? Their BABA stake will earn them far more than new or improved products are likely to.

    At this point, their best strategy is to turn themselves into a pure holding company, and put the operations side out of its misery. As a holding company, all it would need is a staff of a dozen or so, to manage regulatory filings and suchlike. Maybe they'll even get a few bucks for the yahoo.com domain name.

    I'm not being facetious here. At this point, I believe Yahoo will be worth more as a pure owner of ALibaba than as an operating company.
    Jul 16 02:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Tying Its Future Even More Closely To Alibaba Is Worrying [View article]
    "That would price them out at around $2-3 per share. Really?"

    Absolutely.

    Let's do the math: the sustainable portion of their core business will likely earn them about half of the current $1B a year, and will continue declining slowly. Businesses in run-off mode typically garner a P/E multiple between 4 and 8. Generously picking the upper end of that range leads to a valuation of 8x$500M or $4B, which works out to a per-share price of $4.
    Jul 16 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Tying Its Future Even More Closely To Alibaba Is Worrying [View article]
    "And if BABA's IPO is met with the same response as FB it would be a bigger disaster."

    I doubt that. YHOO trades close to the value of their BABA stake. The market already values the core-Yahoo products at close to zero, which is probably a fair assessment.
    Jul 16 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo Tying Its Future Even More Closely To Alibaba Is Worrying [View article]
    Companies like Yahoo and AOL are in business due to little more than user base inertia. Each time Yahoo "revamps" its email, finance services, MyYahoo or their search engine (does anyone still use that?), they end up with something klutzier and less usable.

    I still remember how in 1998, you could use Yahoo Finance to track futures contracts and options on futures in your Yahoo portfolio. During much of 2013, you couldn't even enter a negative number into their portfolio to indicate a short position or margin debt. Progress?

    At this point, YHOO shares are little more than a derivative or a When-Issued proxy for BABA.
    Jul 16 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FAB Universal: Glaring Contradictions In Its 2013 10-K [View article]
    I appreciate the analysis, but I'm not quite clear what the article is supposed to achieve.

    The stock traded a grand total of 100 shares today, which is a rare busy day for it. It seems it hasn't traded a single share for months until today.

    What exactly are we supposed to do with the knowledge you have bestowed on us? I'm not even talking about liquidity here; there is no bid to pick up any shares we wish to sell. Perhaps you can create a market by offering to buy back some of the shares you are short, allowing others to initiate their own short position.

    While insightful, your article can only be seen as pure science, as it cannot have any practical application.
    Jul 11 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Value Screen, Only 1 Survivor [View article]
    "The buyback will raise reserves behind each share left."

    I'm guessing they'll have to pay something for those shares they buy back, right?

    If the shares trade for more than just the value of the oil reserves, each share bought back will deplete the company's cash reserve more than the increase in per-share value of oil reserves, for a net decrease in book value per share. Do the math and see for yourself.

    "Accounting" is not some fictitious entity practiced to appease the SEC. Accounting is the science behind measuring the things you talk about. GAAP and IFRS may not be the best tools possible for every job, but they are a lot better than the fact-free hand-waving in which you are engaging.
    Jul 11 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cynk Technology Is The New Scheme In Town [View article]
    "Cynk Technology is an abomination and a clear short sell which will drop 99.9% with 100% certainty."

    I'm sure it is, but at a stock borrowing fee of 600% (yes, six hundred percent) a year, if this 99.9% drop doesn't happen within a couple of months, you'd still be losing money on that short position you "may initiate".
    Jul 10 03:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Value Screen, Only 1 Survivor [View article]
    "The book value of HES will continue to go up as they just sold their gas stations for 2 billion and announced they will use the money to buy their stock."

    How will that increase their book value, exactly? Buying back your stock may boost the stock price, but unless the stock is trading below book value, buying it back actually reduces the company's book value.
    Jul 9 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List: Portrait Of A Catastrophe [View article]
    The trivialization of violence against women is always a sign of class, distinction and confidence. We should let this guy write articles for SeekingAlphaMale.
    Jul 9 08:56 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List: Portrait Of A Catastrophe [View article]
    Yeah, nothing like a friendly smack on the mouth from a stranger to keep them bitches in the kitchen where they belong, right, dliammc?

    I think I was correct in my initial assessment of you. Do us all a favour and drag your knuckles back to your trailer.
    Jul 9 08:13 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List: Portrait Of A Catastrophe [View article]
    "theres no way i would be able to refrain from swatting her in the mouth 1 time" - Do you happen to reside in a jurisdiction where assault and battery is not a crime, or are you proud to be a violent lowlife?
    Jul 8 10:29 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy: The Analysis And Probability Of A Bankruptcy [View article]
    "Their financial problems doesn't mean you can't make money in the stock"

    In the short term, there's no telling what a stock price does. In the long term, once the company undergoes Chapter 11, the stock will be worthless.
    Jul 8 11:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List: Portrait Of A Catastrophe [View article]
    @8866171, that's a useful number, but I don't see it mentioned anywhere in the article.

    I'm not trying to promote the stock. If anything, I'd be on the short side. But I expect a SeekingAlpha article to have some substance to it.
    Jul 8 09:31 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List: Portrait Of A Catastrophe [View article]
    I hear passion and rancor, but not much in the way of fundamental analysis.

    As an analyst, you don't have to be neutral, but in this article, your emotions outshine any factual analysis. Where is the cashflow analysis? Fair market value estimation?

    Yes, we get it; you hate their commercials. So what? How will those affect the company's profitability?

    I was hoping for some numbers that would help the reader assess ANGI's future prospects. Instead, all I got is a rant.
    Jul 8 09:16 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
621 Comments
647 Likes