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Owen

Owen
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  • El Pollo Loco: PE 'Bust-Out', 20+ Years Of Failed Domestic Expansion, Pre-IPO Window Dressing Make An Ideal Short [View article]
    Please, don't waste your time on the likes of User 20920471. There is nothing illegal, immoral or dishonest about living and doing business outside the mighty US. Despite the oft-seen megalomania, US taxes are for US persons and US-domiciled corporation only. There's no need to punish the entire world just because you came up with a punitive taxation system for yourself, dear User 20920471.

    Oh, and keep posting your good work here, Suhail. I don't read Marketwatch or Forbes.
    Aug 21, 2014. 03:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Hope Of A Turnaround At Angie's List? [View article]
    No matter how overpriced the stock is, there will always be a greater fool to buy them out at a nice premium, likely paying shareholders with their own, even more overpriced stock.

    OpenTable was just as ridiculously overpriced when it was taken over by Priceline, remember?
    Aug 21, 2014. 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • El Pollo Loco: PE 'Bust-Out', 20+ Years Of Failed Domestic Expansion, Pre-IPO Window Dressing Make An Ideal Short [View article]
    Good analysis!

    But as ValGal and Dr. Akston point out, with a dearth of shares to borrow, and borrowing fees of 108%/yr, the stock would have to drop fairly rapidly to make shorting it lucrative.

    I'm afraid this article falls under the "a good read, but not actionable" category.
    Aug 21, 2014. 08:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Finance Online: Shares Soar On Over-Hyped Deal, More Questions Than Answers [View article]
    "The Yuan is reaching for the sky breaking new modern day high. It broke through the 6.14 per $ briefly this morning."

    ...And? You're explaining an 85% weekly movement in the stock with an annual 1% move in the underlying currency?
    Aug 20, 2014. 09:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kellogg's Past Is A Good Indicator Of Its Future [View article]
    "Kellogg Company's (NYSE:K) stock value has fallen 217 bps in one year."

    No, it hasn't. Stock price was $60.98 on August 19, 2013, and closed at $64.47 yesterday, up 5.72% for the year, or "572 bps" as you would dramatically call it. And that's not even counting $1.84 of dividends per share it paid over the year, which would bring total return to over 8.7%.

    None of that is relevant to evaluating the company or the stock _today_, of course, but that's as far as I got with the article. How much of the rest of it was properly fact-checked?
    Aug 20, 2014. 03:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell King Digital Entertainment: It's Way Too Speculative [View article]
    "It's Way To Speculative"

    *too
    Aug 13, 2014. 06:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology Reports Second Quarter 2014 Financial Results [View article]
    What are the odds the PDSTI acquisition will fall apart?
    Aug 7, 2014. 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitauto: Time To Take Profits? [View article]
    Sorry, I haven't analyzed either company, so I can't offer any insight.

    An 18% overvaluation is rarely enough margin of safety for me to short a stock or buy puts on it, especially one with limited predictability of earnings.
    Aug 4, 2014. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitauto: Time To Take Profits? [View article]
    So...the stock moved beyond a target price you set in April? Is that all we're supposed to learn here today?

    I'm not saying your analysis is incorrect. It's just that I can't see any information here beyond what you already provided in your April article.
    Aug 4, 2014. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • L-3 Communications under investigation [View news story]
    What a larf. The term is "accounting irregularities". You _want_ your accounting to be regular.

    You'd think a law firm in the business of class action lawsuits would know that.
    Aug 1, 2014. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: The Chickens Have Come Home To Roost [View article]
    Yes, this is a material issue that will surely impact the company, but by how much?

    The stock is already down 7% pre-open. Does this move correctly reflect the change in the company's intrinsic value? Is it an overreaction?

    No analysis is complete without trying to estimate a dollar figure for the impact of the issues highlighted, and the resulting new valuation for the company.
    Jul 30, 2014. 07:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The McDumpster Meat Scandal In China May Be A Bigger Deal Than You Think [View article]
    And now, taking a cue from their former communist brethren, Russia is adopting the same technique: http://reut.rs/UsudZQ

    Note how those cheeseburgers were just fine until the West started economic sanctions against them. Bacteria seems to grow best on political substrate.
    Jul 25, 2014. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The McDumpster Meat Scandal In China May Be A Bigger Deal Than You Think [View article]
    Yes, zgb, we heard you the first two times.
    Jul 24, 2014. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The McDumpster Meat Scandal In China May Be A Bigger Deal Than You Think [View article]
    "Cannot put my finger on it, but something is amiss with Mickey D's current operation."

    Yes, who needs fundamental analysis when you can rely on your gut feeling for solid investment decision-making?
    Jul 24, 2014. 03:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The McDumpster Meat Scandal In China May Be A Bigger Deal Than You Think [View article]
    Every couple of years, some Chinese technocrat needs to remind his superiors that he is due for promotion, or perhaps he is disappointed by the contents of his "red envelope", and goes on a tainted-food campaign against a foreign restaurant chain--any old one will do.

    This has been the system there for decades. The chains have to genuflect and apologize, even if they did nothing wrong, since there is no independent food safety commission, and the courts are just an arm of the same government.

    Foreign chains just chalk it down to the cost of doing business in China. No one other than sensationalistic journalists (and one or two SeekingAlpha analysts) pay much attention to this. Next quarter's figures from China won't even show a hiccup. Google for similar such incidents, correlate with subsequent sales numbers, and see for yourself.

    This is a tempest in a McFlurry.
    Jul 24, 2014. 01:50 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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