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Owen

Owen
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  • Amazingly, Yahoo Will Still Do Badly [View article]
    Assessing Yahoo based on value investing metrics is a bit like looking at a drunken sailor on shore leave with $100 in his pocket, and assigning him a net worth of $100 based on "cash value". The guy would be lucky to end the night with all his teeth, much less all his cash.
    Sep 17, 2014. 09:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazingly, Yahoo Will Still Do Badly [View article]
    Yahoo has shown an amazing talent for squandering away any asset they stumble across. In 1997, they had a popular search engine, web mail and financial news site. They got knocked out of the search business, and incessant "improvements" made their other online services less and less useful over the years.

    Consistently, each of their corporate acquisitions turned out sour, but fortunately for them, GAAP allows each to be written off as a "non-recurring item", despite the regularity at which they recur.

    I have no doubt that the Alibaba windfall will fare no better. They will find a way to spend that money without any enduring benefit to shareholders.
    Sep 17, 2014. 09:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMC Is A Ticking Time Bomb [View article]
    If I understand the 10-K correctly, almost all of the $2.3B in goodwill is due to the acquisition of Chinese cinema operator Wanda. Once you remove that from the balance sheet, their net tangible assets are negative.
    Sep 9, 2014. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Burger King And Tim Hortons: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them [View article]
    "Trying to sell"

    Must be difficult, what with THI being such an obscure stock with poor liquidity, right?
    Aug 25, 2014. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Burger King And Tim Hortons: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them [View article]
    "All your points are valid, yet what makes this merger different from when Tim Hortons and Wendy's were one company."

    If you own a dog, you know it is excited to go out for a walk, and it is just as excited to come back indoors. Investors are no different. Merger? Hurray! Subsequent spin-off? Hurray! Merger with yet another company? Hurray!

    We don't have the patience to analyze income statements or forecast cost savings. Just give us some big headlines! We'll make up the rest in our fantasies.
    Aug 25, 2014. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • El Pollo Loco: PE 'Bust-Out', 20+ Years Of Failed Domestic Expansion, Pre-IPO Window Dressing Make An Ideal Short [View article]
    "Anyone who has eaten one of their cheesesteaks knows this stock is going higher"

    Why? Do they lace it with LSD?
    Aug 22, 2014. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • El Pollo Loco: PE 'Bust-Out', 20+ Years Of Failed Domestic Expansion, Pre-IPO Window Dressing Make An Ideal Short [View article]
    Please, don't waste your time on the likes of User 20920471. There is nothing illegal, immoral or dishonest about living and doing business outside the mighty US. Despite the oft-seen megalomania, US taxes are for US persons and US-domiciled corporation only. There's no need to punish the entire world just because you came up with a punitive taxation system for yourself, dear User 20920471.

    Oh, and keep posting your good work here, Suhail. I don't read Marketwatch or Forbes.
    Aug 21, 2014. 03:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Hope Of A Turnaround At Angie's List? [View article]
    No matter how overpriced the stock is, there will always be a greater fool to buy them out at a nice premium, likely paying shareholders with their own, even more overpriced stock.

    OpenTable was just as ridiculously overpriced when it was taken over by Priceline, remember?
    Aug 21, 2014. 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • El Pollo Loco: PE 'Bust-Out', 20+ Years Of Failed Domestic Expansion, Pre-IPO Window Dressing Make An Ideal Short [View article]
    Good analysis!

    But as ValGal and Dr. Akston point out, with a dearth of shares to borrow, and borrowing fees of 108%/yr, the stock would have to drop fairly rapidly to make shorting it lucrative.

    I'm afraid this article falls under the "a good read, but not actionable" category.
    Aug 21, 2014. 08:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Finance Online: Shares Soar On Over-Hyped Deal, More Questions Than Answers [View article]
    "The Yuan is reaching for the sky breaking new modern day high. It broke through the 6.14 per $ briefly this morning."

    ...And? You're explaining an 85% weekly movement in the stock with an annual 1% move in the underlying currency?
    Aug 20, 2014. 09:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kellogg's Past Is A Good Indicator Of Its Future [View article]
    "Kellogg Company's (NYSE:K) stock value has fallen 217 bps in one year."

    No, it hasn't. Stock price was $60.98 on August 19, 2013, and closed at $64.47 yesterday, up 5.72% for the year, or "572 bps" as you would dramatically call it. And that's not even counting $1.84 of dividends per share it paid over the year, which would bring total return to over 8.7%.

    None of that is relevant to evaluating the company or the stock _today_, of course, but that's as far as I got with the article. How much of the rest of it was properly fact-checked?
    Aug 20, 2014. 03:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell King Digital Entertainment: It's Way Too Speculative [View article]
    "It's Way To Speculative"

    *too
    Aug 13, 2014. 06:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology Reports Second Quarter 2014 Financial Results [View article]
    What are the odds the PDSTI acquisition will fall apart?
    Aug 7, 2014. 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitauto: Time To Take Profits? [View article]
    Sorry, I haven't analyzed either company, so I can't offer any insight.

    An 18% overvaluation is rarely enough margin of safety for me to short a stock or buy puts on it, especially one with limited predictability of earnings.
    Aug 4, 2014. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitauto: Time To Take Profits? [View article]
    So...the stock moved beyond a target price you set in April? Is that all we're supposed to learn here today?

    I'm not saying your analysis is incorrect. It's just that I can't see any information here beyond what you already provided in your April article.
    Aug 4, 2014. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
678 Comments
759 Likes