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  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues  [View article]
    "Kmart merged with Sears, Roebuck in 2005 to form Sears Holdings."

    No; Kmart, after emerging from bankruptcy, _bought_ the assets of the failing Sears, and changed its name to "Sears Holdings". The company trading under the ticker SHLD emerged from bankruptcy in 2004.

    If you want to erase history, I'm afraid you'll have to try a bit harder than that.
    Nov 13, 2014. 06:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues  [View article]
    Just to remind you all, both Sears and K-Mart already went through bankruptcy before. What we now call "Sears" is the renamed K-Mart after it bought in 2004 the assets of the now-defunct Sears, Roebuck & Company.

    Now, this isn't Highlander, and there can certainly be more than one winner, but having lost the retail game to Walmart _twice_, I don't see how Sears can reasonably expect to survive against an even bigger, more efficient Walmart this time around.

    The only hope I can see for Sears is if J.C. Penney collapses first, emerges from bankruptcy flush with cash, and buys the remaining assets of Sears. The merged retailer will also eventually fail, of course, but it will do so under a different stock ticker.
    Nov 12, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues  [View article]
    @fxfx, my experience with hard-to-borrow shorts has been mixed. In some cases, I was able to cover the position within weeks at a substantial profit, so the borrowing fee was a negligible issue. In other cases, I ended up getting impatient and closing the position to stop the borrowing fee bleeding, and occasionally regretting doing so.

    There may be easier shorts than SHLD out there. Indeed, it is far from my only short position, but it's one I feel relatively confident about. While there may be some debate over the value of their tangible assets, most notably their real estate, I don't expect any magical turnaround in the operations side of things.

    So the only question is, how long will we endure this slow decline before they officially throw in the towel. If it takes too long, my direct shorting strategy will likely end in a loss. This scenario is not unlikely, and I am fully prepared for a loss if that's the case.
    Nov 10, 2014. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues  [View article]
    "certainly, and that will be the longs imho - simply because he is the longest long around."

    @fxfx, that may very well be the case. I never delude myself into thinking any bet I make is a "sure thing". In fact, I wish more people subscribed to your view, as that would reduce the exorbitant borrowing fee I'm currently paying for this short...
    Nov 10, 2014. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues  [View article]
    fxfx, these are all valid points.

    However, seeing as the longs and the shorts are betting on opposite outcomes, I don't see how Mr. Lampert could be "playing us _all_". He must, by simple logic, be playing right into the hands of _some_ of us, even if it's the option writers who bet the stock won't move much.

    What about those who don't have any position on the stock - is Lampert "playing" them too?

    Therefore, I can only conclude that Fast Lane's paranoia-driven sweeping statement is false on its face.
    Nov 10, 2014. 06:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues  [View article]
    "Eddie Lampert is playing all of you"

    How exactly is he "playing" those of us who are short SHLD?

    Are you under the impression that any money he makes comes out of my pocket? How does that work, exactly? I stand to make a fair amount of money if Sears goes under.
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues  [View article]

    Eddie Lampert is worth $3.1 billion. A $40M home represents 1.3% of his net worth. Proportion-wise, that's the equivalent of an average American worth $300k living in his 2005 Buick.

    The reason people like you rarely become rich is that you are too easily distracted by shiny baubles or ridden by envy, and lack the ability to see the big picture.
    Nov 9, 2014. 06:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues  [View article]
    "was the author drunk when he published this article?"

    Not to engage in personal attacks, but his profile picture certainly makes you wonder.
    Nov 9, 2014. 03:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: The Death Spiral Continues  [View article]
    "Sears reported a quarterly debt to equity ratio of 8.406% on July 30, 2014"

    They wish. Their debt to equity ratio is 840.6%; debt is over eight times equity.

    Your number for Macy's is similarly off by a factor of 100.
    Nov 9, 2014. 08:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Container Store Group: Structural Issues, Margin Compression, And Possible Impairment  [View article]
    A 0.6% reduction in comp store sales is now "falling off a cliff"?

    I like the analysis, but I think it would benefit from less rhetoric.
    Nov 7, 2014. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Panera Is Already Operating Beyond Capacity  [View article]
    So...Panera is a bad investment because they have more potential customers than they can currently sell to? So their current revenues reflect only part of the prospective market? And that spells bad news for the stock price?

    I'm a bit confused here.
    Oct 13, 2014. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Park City Group: An Imaginary Growth Story With 65% Downside  [View article]
    A good analysis, Lambda Research! I also love the humourous writing style.
    Oct 11, 2014. 10:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SBA Communications' Equity Is More Than Just Silly  [View article]
    You say you were "squeezed" out of your short. Were your shares called in by the lender, or did you just decide, on your own, to cover your short at some arbitrary point?

    If the latter, no one other than you "squeezed" you. If you shorted the stock at $55 without ample margin to hold on to the position at $110, no one other than you is responsible for your situation.

    So basically, you are telling us you _bought_ the stock at a price where you think we should _sell_ it. And you did that because you happened to have opened your position at a lower price. Does that even make sense?

    Either you bought the stock because you feared it might continue rising, in which case you shouldn't recommend we sell it, or you bought it because you ran out of margin, in which case you didn't need to close out the entire position.

    I appreciate your full disclosure on this, but I'm afraid it raises more questions than it answers.
    Oct 11, 2014. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Mobileye  [View article]
    So basically, MBLY is the latest fad, because of a tweet, therefore we should buy it, regardless of valuation?

    Is this what now qualifies as an "analysis"?
    Oct 9, 2014. 07:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Value Exceeds The Market Price  [View article]
    <You vast losses are due to Apple. They have all of your money.>

    Apple didn't even get its own money back, much less your money.

    No company can be "forced" into bankruptcy. GT chose to borrow that money under onerous terms. It was a loan, not a gift.

    <They are ruthless and greedy.>

    Right, they should be charitable and generous, handing out investors' money to suppliers.
    Oct 7, 2014. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment