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Owen

Owen
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  • AT&T Becomes A Short On DirecTV Deal [View article]
    And I was simply pointing out that the situation today is better than it was in 1929, when most stock trading was done by day traders, or "operators", as it was called then. In fact, value investing wasn't even invented until five years later.

    But thank you kindly for your assessment of my humour.
    May 17 07:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Becomes A Short On DirecTV Deal [View article]
    "Why have we turned investing into a casino game show..."

    Right, "we" never used the stock market for wild speculation right up until--um, 1929?
    May 16 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Amazing Thing About Sears [View article]
    "SHLD is no where near dead"

    Shorting companies at death's door isn't very lucrative, as most of the bad news is priced in. The best time to short a company is when euphoria is at its highest. Reading some of the comments here, we may very well be there.
    May 16 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Becomes A Short On DirecTV Deal [View article]
    "Two years later, WAG is in the upper-60s"

    I'm glad for you, Mike. Just keep in mind that two years is rarely enough time to see the full impact of an ill-advised merger.

    Remember, it has been 12 years since Kmart bought the failing Sears, Roebuck & Co, and changed its name to Sears Holdings, to the cheers of short-sighted analysts. Only ten years later did the full impact of the mountain of debt taken on for this venture and its detrimental effect on the merged company became clear to all.
    May 16 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Becomes A Short On DirecTV Deal [View article]
    "Why on Earth would you want to short T when there are so many other companies that you could short"

    Do you also post a similar comment on articles recommending buying AT&T? "Why on earth would you want to buy T when there are so many other companies that you could buy?"

    This is an analysis about one company, namely, AT&T. It is not a recipe for an entire portfolio. The author states his opinion about T, which differs from yours. The fact that there are other companies to be shorted, or bought, is irrelevant.
    May 16 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Becomes A Short On DirecTV Deal [View article]
    "2) banks are in it for the money, period."

    I would hope _everyone_ is in it for money. Are you owning AT&T for charitable reasons? Isn't money the entire purpose of investing? How is the banks' quest for money different from yours?
    May 16 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Becomes A Short On DirecTV Deal [View article]
    Very true, David. Alas, growth in revenue doesn't always translate to growth in shareholder value, especially when it comes with substantial dilution and lower profit margins.
    May 16 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Becomes A Short On DirecTV Deal [View article]
    No kidding, Ryan! I've only been shorting stocks for 18 years now, and that totally escaped me.

    Contrary to common belief, the dividend isn't some magical manna from heaven. It comes straight from the company's retained earnings. If you, as a short, pay out a dividend of $0.46, it means the company's coffers now have $0.46 per share less retained earnings. Whether the share drops by that amount on the ex day or not is immaterial. In the end, dividends are nothing but a disposition of existing cash. Shareholders don't "win" that cash by distributing it to themselves out of the company's coffers, and similarly, shorts don't lose that cash by paying it out out of the company coffers.
    May 16 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Becomes A Short On DirecTV Deal [View article]
    "How can you short a stock that pays over 5% dividend?"

    As easily as you short a stock that pays no dividend at all. As a short, you effectively get the dividend back on the ex day with the equivalent drop in the stock price that day.

    The problem isn't the 5% dividend, but the 9% earnings yield.
    May 16 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Becomes A Short On DirecTV Deal [View article]
    Some interesting studies have been published in the last few years showing that most takeovers do not benefit the acquirer. They often do, however, benefit management, who gets compensated based on the size of the combined operation, rather than based on the return on capital.

    So, AT&T management may be smart, but these smarts may benefit them more than it does the shareholders.
    May 16 09:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Becomes A Short On DirecTV Deal [View article]
    "All I can say is LOL..... "

    I'm glad you took the time and trouble to come here and tell us that.
    May 16 08:39 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T Becomes A Short On DirecTV Deal [View article]
    Granted, the price paid for DTV is excessive. But even if the entire $66 billion is a write-off (which I doubt it is), it takes great courage--or great foolishness--to short a company trading at a P/E of under 11, and a P/B of just over 2.

    I don't have a position in T, nor in DTV. I wish you luck.
    May 16 08:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Review Says NQ Mobile's NQ Live Interface Is An 'Unattractive, Cluttered-Up Mess' [View article]
    @Goldbaum Research, I wouldn't worry too much about that. Some people will always find malfeasance even in the most mundane, good-faithed actions. For many, the mere notion of shorting or day trading already qualifies as dishonesty.

    We should all be God-fearing, long-only, long-term shareholders. Anything else is a sin, apparently.
    May 15 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Amazing Thing About Sears [View article]
    "I know of no other department (or hardware) store that offers a combination of goods and services like Sears from hardware to underwear"

    Why - because it's too much trouble to buy your underwear at Target, then cross the street and buy your hardware at Home Depot? How often are you in a bind where you need socks and a socket wrench right at the same moment?

    Most of us seem to have no problem buying our postage stamps and our envelopes at two different places. I think we'll manage just fine buying our underwear and our hardware in two different stores, instead of at the "potential pearl of US enterprise".
    May 15 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Amazing Thing About Sears [View article]
    "that would leave ~ $2B cash position if a deal closed in Summer 2014.

    Right. There are also $8B of short-term liabilities, and another $9B in long term debt and pension obligations.

    Inventory is valued at the lower of cost or market. However, this "market" price doesn't include the steep discounts needed when closing stores.

    "the $36B in sales"

    Which are worth exactly nothing when the operating margin is negative. The more they sell, the more they lose.

    I haven't checked the terms on those lines of credit, but liquidity will quickly dry up once covenants start being breached, and I doubt we're far from that.

    You know, suppliers like to bitch about Walmart squeezing out almost all their profits. It's true; they do that. But you'll never hear a Walmart supplier worried about not getting paid for his merchandise.
    May 15 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
616 Comments
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