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Owen

Owen
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  • Berkshire Hathaway: Shooting Dead Fish In A Drained Barrel [View article]
    My point was that even if Berkshire can use buybacks to keep the stock price above 1.2x book, that's not a "floor" in any meaningful sense of the word. Today this value is $106 per class-B share, but next month it could be $80, while still being 1.2x book.

    And as value investors, we should be more interested in the book and intrinsic value anyway, rather than the fickle stock price.
    Jan 17 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Shooting Dead Fish In A Drained Barrel [View article]
    The fact that Berkshire will start buying back shares at $106 based on current book value is not a "free out-of-the-money put option 7% below the current price".

    First of all, when buying back shares at above book value, you are paying out more than the value of the reduction in shares outstanding. It is still an excellent use of capital, of course, but it isn't "free".

    Secondly, and more importantly, the book value itself is as volatile as the value of the underlying stocks and business owned by Berkshire. Saying that the downside is limited to $106 is akin to saying that the downside on WFC, KO, IBM and AXP is their current stock price.

    Other than this, a good analysis. Thank you!
    Jan 17 08:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Hold An Overpriced Stock For The Short Rebate [View article]
    I'm glad I helped inspire this article...

    To be fair, my original "break-even" comment was when GNI was at $40 a share, and that was assuming a straight-line depreciation to the terminal value of $8.

    Interestingly, even now, with GNI under $23, the short rebate is 51%, and hasn't dipped below 48% since the precipitous collapse to fair value started. Whether it will remain this high for any length of time is anyone's guess.
    Jan 17 07:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Real Threats To The Future Of Berkshire Hathaway (And Its Defense Against Them) [View article]
    "the people that took GRE test"

    Technically correct, but most style manuals prefer, "...the people _who_ took GRE test".

    "I expected a detailed discussion (pros and cons) of my thesis on the stock...."

    Alas, this thread is about Berkshire Hathaway, not the stock you're trying to peddle here.
    Jan 16 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Real Threats To The Future Of Berkshire Hathaway (And Its Defense Against Them) [View article]
    "Owen, aren't you being a pedant?"

    Of course I am! Isn't much of accounting and financial analysis pedantry?

    We're not on this site to discuss art or philosophy; we're here to go over balance sheets and income statement minutia, hoping to find things that others in the field have missed.

    What troubles me more, though, is how some people who call themselves "Editor", and carry the "SA Contributor" badge proudly, write at a fourth grade level, and persist with certain mistakes even after those are pointed out to them. If they can't handle simple grammar, what are the odds they can carry out complex financial analysis?
    Jan 16 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Real Threats To The Future Of Berkshire Hathaway (And Its Defense Against Them) [View article]
    Brad, I am not a native English speaker myself. In fact, I only moved to this part of the world fairly late in life. I also don't define myself an "editor", yet I take the few seconds necessary to proofread my posts before exposing others to them.

    You make a fair point about how different people are wired for different skills. However, I believe the same type of attention to detail that allows you to analyze a balance sheet is the one required to proofread your words. I've read reports from dozens--if not hundreds--of analysts, and there seems to be a good correlation between being prudent with words and being observant with numbers.

    "I still find myself double checking my spelling on Bufffett's name" - is that a triple F there? A classic example of Hartman's Law of Prescriptivist Retaliation... ;)
    Jan 15 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Real Threats To The Future Of Berkshire Hathaway (And Its Defense Against Them) [View article]
    Brad, capitalizing the first letter of people's names or of any other proper noun is a common practice across all languages using the Roman alphabet.

    Of course, RI's first language might be Chinese, Arabic or Punjabi, but for someone proclaiming himself to be a "SeekingAlpha Contributor" and an "Editor", I'd expect at least a basic understanding of English punctuation and capitalization rules, if not the ability to verify the spelling of people to whom one refers.
    Jan 15 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Real Threats To The Future Of Berkshire Hathaway (And Its Defense Against Them) [View article]
    You seem to be mistaking amusement for anger. Clueless and sloppy people are entertaining; they only become a liability when you trust them with exacting work like financial analysis.

    I have yet to find someone who can't master simple rules of grammar, yet can do a good job interpreting a financial statement. On the plus side, I'm sure you can fix an awesome tequila cocktail.
    Jan 15 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Real Threats To The Future Of Berkshire Hathaway (And Its Defense Against Them) [View article]
    What's a "buffet stock"? Is there an all-you-can-invest exchange where you load up your portfolio with all the stocks you can fit on your plate, for one low, low price?

    If you don't even have the wherewithal to type Buffett's name correctly _once_, what are the odds you are any good at fundamental analysis?
    Jan 15 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Real Threats To The Future Of Berkshire Hathaway (And Its Defense Against Them) [View article]
    "Would love to hear thoughts from buffet followers." - I prefer full-service dining establishments.

    Whatever you're selling, I ain't buying.
    Jan 14 08:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Northern Iron Now Worth Less Than $21, Will Fall To $0 In 15 Months [View article]
    Yes, EMH comes in different "strengths". In its strongest form, the share price reflects all information available to any of the market participants, fully and instantly. The weaker forms are easier to digest, but are still arguable.
    Jan 14 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Northern Iron Now Worth Less Than $21, Will Fall To $0 In 15 Months [View article]
    WHX trades at a very small premium to the present value of the two years of remaining dividend payments. I don't think you can squeeze much out of shorting that one now.
    Jan 14 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Northern Iron Now Worth Less Than $21, Will Fall To $0 In 15 Months [View article]
    It's a mystery to me too, but no more so than the $66 price we saw until last Monday.

    The Efficient-Market Hypothesis is hokum.
    Jan 14 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • About Time For Another Sweet Hershey Stock Split [View article]
    "99.99999% of Pennsylvania Citizens have NO IDEA that the language of the law was changed."

    If only 0.00001% of the 12.8 million Pennsylvania citizens knew about this, that would amount to less than two people. More people than that in the PA legislature voted to pass this legislation, and that's not even counting the dozens who participated in the debate, the drafting and the publishing of it.

    Please, Brad, go play with kids your own age.
    Jan 13 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • About Time For Another Sweet Hershey Stock Split [View article]
    Brad, I'm not interested in your conspiracy theories, neither to support nor to refute them. I just found your idea of "SECRET laws" to be profoundly ridiculous.
    Jan 13 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
463 Comments
418 Likes