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dcb

dcb
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  • Freight and Truck Traffic Point to Recovery [View article]
    Just a few days ago you wrote about the double dip on the way. please reoncile.

    it drives me crazy when people say things so opposite in a week and don't take into account their other writings. You have to piece things to gether.

    Over all you are one of the better commentators, but use past writings and current data and tell us your thinking now
    Jun 12, 2010. 09:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Controlled Descent in Equities: A Perfect Storm Is Brewing [View article]
    last one 103 is my short term target for potential bounce on spy (102) 98. but be careful euro us up today and bonds down which often is an indicator of market bounce next day. (sma thing can be said of market drop)
    Jun 8, 2010. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Controlled Descent in Equities: A Perfect Storm Is Brewing [View article]
    Oh, how about the massive futures manipulation!!!!
    Jun 8, 2010. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Controlled Descent in Equities: A Perfect Storm Is Brewing [View article]
    this is cobputer controlled algo's just like the drop last year from Jan to march. exactly in a channel. it is disgusting.
    Jun 8, 2010. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Fundamentals, Valuation and Price Behavior [View article]
    great article
    Jun 3, 2010. 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Foreclosure Freeroll [View article]
    banks are a business. they are in the business of giving out credit. until securitization they actually had to live with the product they made (a good thing). any business that fails goes out of business. except banks. the borrower is not in the business of borowing. it is the duty of the lender (being that it is their business) to make sure the loan can be repaid.

    I would have a bit more sympathy for the banks, but we have allseen this problem happen again and again and the tax payer bails them oot. we had S&L crisis, lat american debt crisis, argentina, russia, asian debt crisis. the sad fact is that these businesses fail opur and over again, yet we bail them out. not just directly but via interest rate policies, etc. please give me a break.

    I'm an MD, i treat a patient, if i do malparactice I get sued and may loose my license. how is that different from a banker. if they give a loan that amounts to maplractice they suffer no consequences. when you come to me as a patient I am expected to know what I am doing. only in banking is the consumer expected to always be on the defensive. you can't sell faulty products in other industries, but you sure as hell can in banking. the entire system is disgusting, rigged from top to bottom.

    How about people like Citi knowingly lowering their loan standards and selling them. I call that fraud. or all those loans with missing documentation that got securitized. once again fraud. you are sellling me a faulty product (bond) that is faulty because the loans are faulty. it is the duty of the professional (banker) to make sure the product they sell (loan) is not faulty. once you decide that different products don't fit on the same moral compass you are using faulty logic.
    Jun 2, 2010. 03:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Foreclosure Freeroll [View article]
    when they decided not to nationalize the banks they were atick with this strategy. mark to myth added to it. it was short term thinking (that will delay recovery) but pretending the naks were solvent and making money allowed the wall street "crooks" to continue to get their bonus.

    the entire episode was a farce. nationaize, force write downs, keep the banks functioning, make bond holders take haircuts. In effect every federal program has not been designed to solve the problem (because it isn't addressed solvency and too much debt). all the programs have been designed to keep the bonus money flowing.
    Jun 2, 2010. 03:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Stock 'Market' Is Like No Other Market [View article]
    in fact if you look where buffet said to buy it wan't ear the market bottom. it was an awful market call.
    May 23, 2010. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Australian Crisis Brewing [View article]
    if you look inot the work of steve keen he says australia has a housing debt bubble as well. it just hasn't burt as well. or may be busting.
    May 23, 2010. 12:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "The U.S. economy is recovering and we are now seeing the first signs of significant employment growth," says NY Fed's Dudley. Even so, growth is likely to be sluggish as households delever, banks remain under 'significant stress,' and fiscal stimulus programs wind down.  [View news story]
    there are specific people I know not to listen to
    1) ben bernanke
    2) gethner
    3) dudley
    ------- dudley ran the operations division of the NY federal reserve. he is also a former big goldman guy. while geithner may not have been directly involved with the funny business at the NY fed. Dudley had to be. Lets just say he was the cia head of the NY fed and had to know all the strange stuff. all the firms paintig the tape, and to be behind aig, etc. I consider him to be the worst of the worst. if you read the polices he has indorsed in effect they are all policies for goldman
    May 22, 2010. 06:15 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Stock 'Market' Is Like No Other Market [View article]
    1) is the expected sustained rise in earnings going to appear?
    2) will the macro headwinds stall earnings
    3) how meaningful are the earnings with financials dependent upon fed low interest rates, and no mark to market, when will the losses have to be brought back onto the balance sheets
    4) what impact will the rise in the dollar, increased libor, euro area cut backs, have on export (foreign) earnings.
    5) what was your perfformance during the two year drop. when did you have people buy, or sell. advice from someone without some history of performace data is meaningless
    6) as long as libor goes up things go down. libor should never have "normalized" again because we understand there are greater systemic risks around. those risks must be added to the risk premium. I do not believe that currently those risks are correctly priced in (better than 10% higher)
    carnine and rogoff do a very good job of detailing the risks of sovreign defaults after financial crisis. what is the correct pricing of these risks into the market. we have seen what a small country like greece does. now lets add bigger fish to the mix.
    7) the false logic of the article is easy to explain
    I buy a business in a flood area. I pay a reasonable amount but don't think what the cost is going to be when I include having to rebuild for the "ever more common floods" (financial crisis). hence I over pay. the writer should read some of minsky's work in order to understand that each rescue of the system validates the pardigm of the system, this increases risky behavior and therefore increases systemic risk once more.
    hence the overall market risk is more than before lehman. Now we just got rid of a lot of crap, and it will take a while to build up again. but systemic risks are increasing in frequency are duration with less and less ability to stop them by the central bankers (the cost of each episode becomes greater).
    could the author please tell me how he determines what the correct risk premia is for stocks in this context?
    May 22, 2010. 10:56 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Crisis: The Hidden Agenda [View article]
    where is the chart normalized fr different currencies
    May 20, 2010. 01:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taleb: The Stock Market Is a Hoax [View article]
    I'm afraid I agree with taled on it being a hoax.
    the fact that a huge percent of the money behine it is leveraged makes it a hoax. if it was un leveraged, well that is another story.

    the other issue is that we have decided that the market exits for trading houses to make the most money, not designed it to allocate efficient uses of capitial.

    te last hoax is that the government steps in to ensure profits by lowering interest rates. so in effect you have a sort of government controlled stock market that doesn't reflect reality.

    so while it may not be a hoax by definition, it is an all practical effect.
    May 14, 2010. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lagging GDP Confirms Consumer Slowdown [View article]
    I like your stuff, but the idea to short and go long on tbt at the same time was poor. I have now seen at least two people advse tbt at times I would short the over all market. bad trade.
    May 5, 2010. 07:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perhaps Speculators Aren't Really the Cause of Greece's Debt Crisis [View article]
    speculation can have just a big a role as moving up as going down. we could be moving to where we should, but the run up away from fundemantals could also be considered speculation. Like hiding greek debt limits by using interest rates swaps to hide the real financial postion of a country so you can sell bonds and make a deal. then bet against what yout sold at a known inflated price.
    May 2, 2010. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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