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dcb

dcb
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  • Are We Seeing Shades of 2003 Markets? [View article]
    I don't want to argue either point. I did set my stops to fridays lows and depending on what happens Monday will make my moves accordingly. the point is that if you are out and it runs up you loose. but a move down takes you out to reinvest later. worth the gamble with minimal lose, good gain.
    Jan 4 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Convertible Bonds Are an Interesting Speculation [View article]
    I bought some a month ago, and added yesterday. this was the only bond like structure that didn't explode with Zirp, and according to and article in the times this weekend it is one of the asset classes that are most affected by a credit crunch and benefit the most when credit conditions improve. If the fund didn't require a holding period of one year, I'd be putting more in at this time.
    Jan 2 04:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Buying Bonds Really a Good Idea? [View article]
    If you are looking to buy a bond fund it's too late because they have gone up too much and now the downside risk is greater than the upside. If you can build your own portfolio then you maintain the upside. I bought about 450K of bond funds at the height of the credit squeeze, and I'm happy to hold the LDQ, and investment grade funds I got at 87 that are trading at 100. At this point I'll loose more in taxes by not holding. After ZIRP there was no benefit, although european corporates may do well as the ECB is further expected to lower rates. This may also be the case with emerging market debt, but after it has run up I wouldn't be buying edd right now
    Dec 31 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Deflation Be Avoided? [View article]
    the idea that we will see a significant period of deflation is plain wrong. We aren't japan with as big a bubble to burst, and whenever everyone is talking bout something means it ain't going to happen. Remember 200$ oil. Our government is doing everything it can to allow banks and industry to lever up again (getting us ready to the same thing to happen again once more). The worry is going to be if anyone will turn off the money flood before we get to the 70's again. The market like to push things to extreme before it turns and knows that by doing so it can manipulate washington through fear. Remember these are the guys who believed speculators had nothing to do with pushing oil to 147$. My vote is for stagflation and a ruined currency.
    Dec 31 03:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Banker's Dilemma [View article]
    Just as the talk about high oil prices signaled the end of the commodity bubble, all the talk about deflation now running around likely signals the near end of our deflationary cycle. We aren't going to have Japan style deflation because our assets weren't as over valued to begin with. Remember the talk about how the tokyo palace was worth more than california. speculators push events to the breaking point and things turn just as quickly!!!
    Dec 28 02:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Is Safer: Investment Grade Corporate Debt or Government Bonds? [View article]
    All is market timing. stocks at the height of the recession, corporate (high grade) at the height of the credit crisis. We have bottomed in the credit portion of the cycle and now have the marcoeconomic effects on the real economy to deal with. you're behind the curve with bond mutual funds, but if you build your own portfolio in the secondary market you'll still do OK. Remember ZIRP produced a bond bubble in Japan,so be careful!!!!
    Dec 28 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI: Economic Forecast Remains Near All Time Low [View article]
    you need to describe the relationship of this indicator to market performance.
    Dec 28 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI: Economic Forecast Remains Near All Time Low [View article]
    Dear Mr. Hansen,
    while this is useful, you need to describe how it relates to market performance. While we are clearly only at the start of the real economic effects of the recession, is it a good time to buy? You need to clarify the usefulness of this information.
    Dec 28 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second-Guessing Buffett's November Bottom Call [View article]
    the market always goes up until faced with reality by being slapped in the head. We are trading at low P/e's but earnings will drop. I'd like to see another leg down to really throw my money into the hat, but otherwise dollar cost average by buying on the dips. remember you can always take at out again and limit your losses. that's why we trade and don't depend on managers to leave us in to take the losses. But, we should retest the lows and I'd take it from there
    Dec 24 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jeffrey Saut: Hedging Positions in Unprecedented Times [View article]
    the positions he suggests aren't hedges. To hedge you'd use the inverse positions. it's Ok to do a buy and hold in this market, but you have to be ready to bail if the lowest lows are breached. Just to let you know the bond market is pricing in fair value of the dow at 700. In truth unless you have a macroeconomic background it is very difficult to understand what's going on. Take the cues from the bond market, commodities, currencies and go from there. Crude dropping to new lows tells you what other markets that act in a more logical manner. Stocks always go up until slapped very hard in the face with reality otherwise you never could have had the dot com bubble. There's no logical way a company with no cash flows can be worth more than texaco
    Nov 12 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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