dcb

The Next Bull Market Is 4-8 Months Away

I think the term bull is short for bull shi....

The Next Bull Market Is 4-8 Months Away

I agree I'd like another big sell off so I can have a nice entry, but that doesn't mean I would stay in m position if i had nice gains. that makes no sense.


On May 26 04:53 AM ValueInvestor88 wrote:

> I am so happy when people are selling their stock!!! I already load
> in almost 75% of my portfolio in stock since last 2 months. Hope
> the sell off on March can happen again as my 25% cash can be used!!!!

Why You Should Stick With the Dollar and the U.S.

The perverse thing is each tax dollar I spend propping up the financial system in the untied states causes more and more people to flee dollar (united states assets). This is our governments idea of money well spent. The insanity of continuing this (because of lobby money), proves the american empire is over. when our government would rather throw money at the political connected while rome is burning we know we are done. We can't even get our act together when it is a matter of life and death.

More proof of this in the KBR contacts in the Iraq War. Our own contractors will short change the American troops resulting in additional deaths if it means some extra bucks for their own companies and their CEO's. Remember dick Chaney (the great patriot and former VP) was the head of this company. Our own VP instills a corporate culture where american lives and american soldiers lives are less impt than profits. This man became the VP of the United states. No, our system is working just fine.

Why You Should Stick With the Dollar and the U.S.

Dude, the data just does not support your argument. I understand the emotional reaction to the idea of one's country going down the tubes, but staying in china 10 years made you good money. staying in the us market hasn't.

from the market peak in october (2007 to the bottom around march 9th you would see that ewz, veu, s&P had all dropped about 65% or so(all markets equalized) since the rebound many foreign stocks has doubled the performance of the US.

High levels of savings mean large amounts of capital to invest in future growth. high levels of consumer consumption just mean more garbage in the end. this is easily accepted macro theory, and many studies show how savings get invested and enhance future growth.

High levels of savings means more to spend in future, high levels of debts means less to spend in future. We spent in past and now will save, they saved in past and have money to spend. do not make the mistake of assuming the future must look like the past. it doesn't, and likely wont.
But hey, if you were roman talking about the decline of the roman empire didn'[t make you popular, or get you elected. It didn't stop it. I would add that the decline of the empire was hastened in expensive foreign conflicts and when decisions were more based on "politics" that merit. (think our current financial bailout strategy, and how it enriches those who caused it and have been giving money to congress).

The american purchasing power has been in decline for 30 years. when did you think taking on that debt to maintain living standards was actually going to catch up with us. did you think it could go on forever. But, once more you don't get elected telling people the truth about their future lifestyle. you get elected telling people the future looks bright and "yes we can". While at the same time you enact policies to ensure that we can't and put the same old people in power. you may want to read this if you think what I am saying isn't supported by data.

buffalobeast.com/136/C...

When the engine of the world economy runs out of gas, what happens when those with the gas (china, countries with savings) decide not to give it anymore. the engine stops. why should they keep giving us money to buy things when they can use it to buy their own.

Why You Should Stick With the Dollar and the U.S.

Once our currency collapses foreign investors will flock to the country to buy up cheap assets. you just don't want to be holding them until that happens. the same way you didn't want to hold an emerging market currency while the global finaincial system was in danger of collapsing. When things got cheap enough money flowed into Iceland. Do you want to hold icelandic currency before that? You keep your dollars, I'll keep my other currencies and when the value of your dollar drops enough I'll buy your assets with my other currency that has increased in value. You realize that is essentially what you are advising people to do. :-)


On May 24 05:37 PM cameroni wrote:

> We all know of course that the US is a major consumer economy and
> a great deal of domestic activity is dependent on consumption. We
> cannot forget thought that the US is still a manufacturing powerhouse
> and goods are shipped around the world in good times and bad. I do
> not see the dollar collapsing as many predict. Quite the contrary,
> via devaluation the US will in effect draw in capital and foreign
> investment as the opportunity to buy quality US assets becomes irresistable.
> A point will be reached when foreign investors will look seriously
> at bargains as they go on the chopping block. And not necessarily
> to repackage and move to overseas locations.
>
> Cheap labor is simply not able to fill all the specialized needs
> and demands that only a well educated and organized population can
> provide. I am also referring to a properly functioning Judiciary,
> government agencies and the plethora of private sector services that
> support so many great industries, Apple and Boeing as only two examples.
>
>
> The dollar will devalue only to the point where excess is cleansed
> from the system and market forces can start to assert themselves.
> The US is a good buy at all times but it will be a real bargain sooner
> than we expect. I expect a real recovery will take a decade but the
> US cannot be counted out of the action yet. It simply has too much
> going for it in a thousand ways that the rest of the world still
> wishes to emulate and own a piece of.
>
> Perhaps the biggest risk is the loss of prestige as foreigners flush
> with cash start to buy up some of the best and brightest companies
> we have. We need this correction though. We need it because we are
> not competitive enough right now. Coming back to earth may be a
> little painful but it will payoff in the end.
>
> We could not have carried on with the economies trajectory of two
> years ago. That was unsustainable on every level. The bubble had
> to burst and now it is time to pick up the pieces and start rebuilding.

Why You Should Stick With the Dollar and the U.S.

For those who believe this post I would send you to the baseline scenario web site and read the article in the atlantic by simon johnson (former head IMF). One factor to understand is that there are two types of corruption. in Russia we have what I would call overt corruption. the type of thing that gets you in jail here. In the us we have sot corruption. In this "legal" process in the US, which doesn't merit moral outrage here< the political process is corrupted by the influence of money on the legislative process. The net effect is basicly the same. I am sorry I do not have the link anymore. While Russia ranked very high for the first type of corruption, the us was one of the world leaders in the second type.

The clearest evidence is simply AIG. the bonus money wasn't allowed until the white house called Dodd and had it given. we could used the company to get money to godlman et al without the oversight restrictions of Tarp. Now they will repay what they got using the money we got to them via a back door. While naked shorting is against the law, the SEC didn't enforce and instead of getting a bribe up front they/ or their family get jobs in the industry when their time in the SEC is over with. One of Barney Franks's top Guys just got a job with Goldman. The bribe is still a bribe, it is just the order of payment has been changed in the US system.

3 Ways to Prepare for a Possible Market Decline

when goldman decides to let the market go down it will happen, but not until then. if you look at trading volumes on NYSE they are the market at this time.