David Taggart is the Macro Trader and maintains TheMacroTrader.com blog.
TheMacroTrader.com is a site devoted to Global Macro and Multi-strategy Trading. Our philosophy on Macro Trading is that we are trying to be in the best risk to reward situations possible anywhere in anything. Instead of being married to value stocks, small-cap stocks, emerging market bonds, real estate, etc. we can go where we see the greatest opportunity or as some might say to “go where the money is.”
Please visit www.TheMacroTrader.com
Bill Gross, called "the nation's most prominent bond investor" by the New York Times, is managing director of Pacific Investment Management (or PIMCO) and manages its Total Return fund, the world's largest bond fund and fifth largest mutual fund, and several smaller funds. He publishes a monthly letter discussing the bond market, and is the author of two books: Everything You've Heard About Investing Is Wrong! (http://tinyurl.com/nfc4x) and Bill Gross on Investing (http://tinyurl.com/nhmnj9).
Note: Mr. Gross is not an active contributor to Seeking Alpha; rather, SA editors excerpt regularly from Mr. Gross's public commentary. Visit PIMCO (http://www.pimco.com/)
Matthew Bradbard serves as a Director at RCM Alternatives & Attain Portfolio Advisors. Matthew began his career in the commodities business as an advisor to clients on asset allocation and buy/sell decisions. Matthew has devised, implemented and executed trading strategies for several firms since entering the commodity business in 2001. Matthew has also managed his own global macro CTA that traded numerous futures and options strategies and operated his own Introducing Broker for 5 years. A prolific commentator, Matthew has published subject-specific articles, market commentaries, and Managed Futures educational pieces for the last decade. Matthew is frequently interviewed for his opinion on commodities and current events as they relate to commodities and their role in an investor’s portfolios.
I have over 25 years of Wall Street experience trading and managing risk in multiple markets. Early on I traded High Grade Corporates for Drexel Burnham. This gave me an in-depth knowledge of credit spreads as well as how and why they move. Later in my career I was Chief Dealer of Interest Rate Options for Barclays Bank Plc. in New York. This allowed me to gain practical knowledge of the derivatives market as well as how to manage option risk. Additionally I have built technical trading models and managed commodity portfolios for Tamiso & Company a CTA that has been in business since 1983 as well as my own small CTA, Market Strategies Mgmt., LLC.
These experiences formed the pool of knowledge from which I drew to build the CEC Strategy. A practical, in-depth understanding of credit spreads and optionality combined with well disciplined risk management learned from the commodity markets all join together to produce a trading strategy that produces high quality, low volatility returns.
Visit his websites: Market Strategies Management (http://www.marketstrategiesmgmt.com/)
I run a model fund at Ken Kam's Marketocracy, where they do capital management using the best member mutual fund track records with extensive tabulations of alpha, beta, R-squared, and many other fund management evaluations. Marketocracy Capital Management offers SMA (Separately Managed Accounts) through FOLIOfn Institutional ($100,000 minimum accounts) set up to track the top 15 or so long-term track records (many 12 years plus) of the 30000 or so active members that run models at their site. My fund is one of those top models available for SMAs. My SMA investment fund now has a first year performance with double digit alpha. You can see the fund's performance chart at marketocracy.com (the Turtle Fund - symbol BPMF) and there is one in my profile over at TalkMarkets.
My fund methodology is high diversification, usually running around 40-60 stocks from many different sectors. I rarely weight any position much over 5%. I began at Marketocracy developing an analysis method I've labeled The Fractal Base Flow Model. I've been experimenting with variations of my basic methodology with 4 other funds and a 5th where I try new things. With my first and main model fund BPMF (Bruce Pile's Mutual Fund) I did my basic method for the first 7 years or so with an alpha over 30, then strayed a little into other analysis methods that did not work as well. For the SMA, I am using the methods proven to work well.
Marketocracy is a new way of investing that solves a lot of the problems in the industry today. When investors nowadays survey their options, they are perplexed by the mish mash of risk and fees. In mutual funds, you have regulated safety where managers must diversify with less than 10% of your money in any one name in the top of your weightings scheme, making for at least around 20 stocks at any one time. The SEC also prohibits the risk of leverage and investing in dangerous derivatives, etc. But this safety is typically viewed as a tradeoff with performance vs hedge funds, where all the dangerous stuff is allowed. But the sad result of all this danger is that most hedge funds fail. The average life of a hedge fund that makes it past the first year is just 5 years. More than two thirds of all hedge funds that ever existed are now dead. There is the fund of funds option, but the high turnover means that even they must select an all new portfolio of funds about every 5 years. This makes selecting proven long-term performers virtually impossible. A fund of hedge funds will typically not only charge the high hedge fund fees of 1%-4% management fee plus 15%-25% of your returns, but will also charge fees for running the fund of funds. They pile complication upon complication and charge you for it. "Oh, and the hedge fund industry as a whole hasn’t produced alpha/added value to simple portfolios for years, since its assets under management ballooned." [FTalphaville] With typical leverage, that has grown over 15 years from around 20% to over 40% now, you get 40%more risk than mutual fund rules with no significant added performance, just more costs. And because that added leverage risk is so often concentrated in the same areas by all the large funds, inducing systemic risk, when those bets go wrong they can go very wrong. With all the above, an investor must live with the risk of having just one fund manager, or picker of rotating funds in a fund of funds. Imagine a place where you could go to sign up for an account where you could review track records and styles and risk levels of not just one guy, but up to 15 or so, and check on your account signup form how you want to spread your money among these guys. And imagine that all these managers have had to compile top ranked hedge fund performance levels for up to 15 years under the safety level of SEC rules for mutual funds. And imagine you could get all this at roughly cost of a mutual fund. It would be like opening an account and checking the names of Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and all your favorite hedge fund managers to gang tackle your investment objectives. And as in any team sport, if one guy hits a cold streak, the others will carry him. No dependence on one manager. Well there is such a place - Marketocracy Capital Management. Here, thousands of people from all walks of life, from retired and active fund managers to ordinary individual investors, compete online with virtual funds. If your track record qualifies, you can open a GIPS account for real money tracking of your model fund and have client accounts track your model. My fund is one of those, ticker BPMF. FOLIOfn Institutional can open a client SMA where you can pick and choose from the best of the best long-term performers. To look into this: Phone: 1-877-462-4180 email: firstname.lastname@example.org web: marketocracy.com
“Sold At TheTop” is the snarky pseudonym for the organic blogger that maintains the reasonably popular and, dare I say, possibly even slightly influential web log PaperEconomy (www.papereconomy.com).
“Sold”, as he prefers to be called (especially by his wife under certain saucy circumstances… mmmm…) is not a professional economist, analyst or stock trader and has neither been trained in finance nor statistics.
What Sold offers is a dedicated and serious passion for macroeconomic analysis and further, for the creation of striking, some say even artistic, visualizations of macroeconomic data. Though not a “perma-bear” Sold is very bearish about the current state and future of the American economy subscribing whole heartedly to notion that the recent financial crisis is but the second act of an immense systemic unwind that commenced, more or less, in the year 2000.
Sold is NOT A PESSIMIST by nature but a true skeptic and a realist that prefers solid and sustained evidence of fundamental economic recovery to “Goldilocks”, “Green Shoots”, “Mustard Seeds” and wholesale speculation. Further, Sold believes that the evidence for rational and efficient markets as well as collective wisdom is scant.
In his spare time Sold works as an independent software consultant spewing out cutting edge code like he’s spraying silly string.
Kathy Lien is Managing Director for FX Strategy at BKAssetManagement.com and Co-Founder of BKForex.com. Having graduated New York University’s Stern School of Business at the age of 18, Ms. Kathy Lien has more than 13 years of experience in the financial markets with a specific focus on G20 currencies. Her career started at JPMorgan Chase where she worked on the interbank FX trading desk making markets in foreign exchange and later in the cross markets proprietary trading group where she traded FX spot, options, interest rate derivatives, bonds, equities, and futures. In 2003, Kathy joined FXCM and started DailyFX.com, a leading online foreign exchange research portal. As Chief Strategist, she managed a team of analysts dedicated to providing research and commentary on the foreign exchange market. In 2008, Kathy joined Global Futures & Forex Ltd as Director of Currency Research where she provided research and analysis to clients and managed a global foreign exchange analysis team. As an expert on G20 currencies, Kathy is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg, Marketwatch, Associated Press, AAP, UK Telegraph, Sydney Morning Herald and other leading news publications. She also appears regularly on CNBC – US, Asia and Europe and on Sky Business. Kathy is an internationally published author of the best selling book Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market as well as The Little Book of Currency Trading and Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game – all published through Wiley. Kathy’s extensive experience in developing trading strategies using cross markets analysis and her edge in predicting economic surprises serve as key components of BK’s analytical techniques.
Philstockworld.com is the fastest growing stock and option newsletter on the Web. "High Finance for Real People - Fun and Profits" is our motto and our Basic and Premium Chat Sessions offer readers a chance to speak to Phil live during the trading day as well as authors like Optrader, Sabrient, Income Trader and Trend Trader - who send out Alerts during the market sessions and discuss trade ideas live with Members.
We even have a new low-cost "Trend Watcher" Membership that lets readers view our chat sessions without directly participating a great solution for people who want to test-drive the site and profit from our experience! Trend Watchers get to view all of our Chat Archives, weekly Webinars - as well as the amazing PSW Wiki, which gives you Phil's recent opinions and trade ideas as well as technical and fundamental analysis of hundreds of stocks that we follow.
Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks).
Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)
Retired, 48, been making my own financial decision since I was 17.
Every day, for the rest of my life, I will be a recovering Merrill Lynch customer.
Proudest Financial Moments:
Personal Best return on equity: 20/1, Leap Puts on Citi & GE, closed in late 2008
Personal best adjusted for time: Shorted FNMA Preferred S in late August 08 - closed position 13 days later. 75% return - in NINE business days.
(I'll never manage THAT again, not even close - not if I live to be a thousand . . . )
Managed a modest positive savings rate in '08 (2%), despite being retired & making all my living from investments, in a year when most investments got slaughtered.
Wonder if I can do that again . . . ?
Market Folly is your go-to source for all the latest activity from prominent hedge funds. We're pleased to announce our brand new quarterly newsletter, Hedge Fund Wisdom. In it, you'll see what the hedge funds have been buying and selling. We track 25 of the most prominent managers in the game as well as provide in-depth equity analysis of the stocks they've been buying. Click the link below to see a free sample issue.
The author of Market Folly has experience at a long/short equity hedge fund, has been investing for a decade, and has degrees in Economics and Communications.
Steven Vincent has been studying and trading the markets since 1998 and is a member of the Market Technicians Association. He is proprietor of BullBear Trading which provides market analysis, timing and guidance to subscribers. He focuses on intermediate to long term swing trading. When he is not charting and analyzing the markets he teaches yoga and meditation in Los Angeles.
I wrote a book called DISCIPLINE. I am a father, a financial analyst, an economist, a programmer, and a privacy and security specialist. I am curious about everything.
IndexUniverse's website and related sub-sites cover product and market developments related to index funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), index derivatives (futures/options/swaps), and the sophisticated investment strategies which use these financial tools. The sites provide top quality news, columns, research, and features about the dynamic field of index-based investing and trading.
IndexUniverse also supplies valuable tools and data to assess markets and investment products, and specialized discussion boards for registered members to exchange cutting-edge ideas and market views. The site aims to be educational, thought-provoking, and most importantly, rigorously independent in perspective.
IndexUniverse was founded by Steven Schoenfeld in 2002 and the current Editor and Publisher is Jim Wiandt.
Visit: Index Universe (http://indexuniverse.com/)
We are NO LONGER and HAVE NOT BEEN contributing articles to SeekingAlpha since 2012. Visit us on our SmartKnowledgeU YouTube channel or at https://www.smartknowledgeu.com for up-to-date information.
After earning an undergraduate degree from the University of Pennsylvania and two master degrees (a Master in Public Policy and a Master in Business Administration) from the University of Texas at Austin, J.S. Kim started working within the Private Wealth Management division of one of the largest financial institutions in America. In 2005, dissatisfied with the ethics of the commercial investment industry and to be able to serve his clients in a manner consistent with his own commitment to integrity and honor, JS left the corporate world behind to launch his own company, SmartKnowledgeU™ (http://smartknowledgeu.com/), a fiercely independent investment research, consulting and education firm in 2006.
I have my name back, Still looking for a Purrfect picture. I have friends. Time to restart.
SA isn't perfect but then I'm not either. But Life is far too short, and as the Roman Gladiators used to say: Eat, drink and make merry because tommorow, you may die.
Why hasten your demise, don't worry, what goes around, comes around.
Dr. John Hussman is the president and principal shareholder of Hussman Econometrics Advisors, the investment advisory firm that manages the Hussman Funds ( http://www.hussmanfunds.com). He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University, and a Masters degree in education and social policy and a bachelors degree in economics from Northwestern University. Prior to managing the Hussman Funds, Dr. Hussman was a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan. In the mid-1980's, Dr Hussman worked as an options mathematician for Peters & Company at the Chicago Board of Trade, and in 1988 began publishing the Hussman Econometrics newsletter. Virtually all of Dr. Hussman's liquid assets are invested in the Hussman Funds.
Note: Dr. Hussman is not an active contributor to Seeking Alpha; rather, SA editors excerpt regularly from Dr. Hussman's public commentary.
Deflation, debt destruction, money printing, unserviceable debt and impossible unfunded liabilities. One hell of a mess. Keep some cash around, some hard assets, maybe even some stocks. Live within your means. Don't assume your bank will be open tomorrow. Don't assume there will be food on the shelves tomorrow. Don't assume the electricity will work tomorrow. Be prepared. These are precarious times.
Hardassetsinvestor.com (http://hardassetsinvestor.com/) is a Van Eck Associates-sponsored, research oriented Web site devoted to sharing ideas about hard assets investing. The site has been developed as an educational resource for both individual and institutional investors interested in learning more about commodity equities, commodity futures and gold (the three major components of the hard assets marketplace). The site focuses on hard assets investing, without endorsing or recommending any particular investment product or approach.
Visit: Hard Assets Investor (http://hardassetsinvestor.com/)
John Lounsbury, Managing Editor and Co-founder of Global Economic Intersection, provides comprehensive financial planning and investment advisory services to a small number of families on a fee only basis. He has a background which includes 34 years with a major international corporation, 25 years in R&D management and corporate staff positions. More recently he was a Series 6, 7, 63 licensed representative with a major insurance company brokerage from 1992 to 2001. Since 2002 he has operated his own sole proprietorship business. Specific interests include political and economic history, econometric analysis and investment strategy analysis. Recreational activities include hiking, non-technical mountaineering and alpine skiing. He is also founding partner and managing editor of EconIntersect.com.
Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He is a co-founder of The Baseline Scenario.
James Kwak is a former McKinsey consultant, a co-founder of Guidewire Software, and currently a student at the Yale Law School. He is a co-founder of The Baseline Scenario.
All opinions expressed here are those of the authors alone, and not necessarily those of the organizations with which they are affiliated or any other organization or person. Visit The Baseline Scenario (http://baselinescenario.com/ )
Tyler Durden (a pseudonym) represents the idea that a return to truly efficient markets is a possibility and a necessity. After having experienced the inner workings of capitalism at various asset managers and advisors, Tyler believes that the current model is flawed and a deleveraging at every level of modern society is needed to reinspire the fundamental entrepreneurial spirit. Visit his blog: ZeroHedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/)
Cliff Wachtel, CPA, is currently the Director of Market Research, New Media and Training for Caesartrade.com, a fast growing forex and CFD broker. He covers a variety of topics including global market drivers, forex, currency hedged and diversified income investing, and is currently working on a unique project related to that asset class - MLPs.
He is also the author of The Sensible Guide To Forex, and publisher of thesensibleguidetoforex.com. Both the book and website are uniquely dedicated to providing safer, simpler ways for active traders and passive long term income investors to use forex markets to diversify out of currencies like the USD, EUR, JPY, and others that are being debased by central bank policies, and so hedge currency risk and boost returns.
Since the Great Financial Crisis began in 2007, Cliff was among the first financial writers to focus on stocks that provide steady, high yields currency diversification for insurance against currencies being steadily devalued. Articles focus on both top income stocks for exposure to multiple quality currencies, and safer, simpler less demanding types of longer term forex trades than commonly covered on other forex sites.
He also posts a variety of articles on topics ranging from weekly strategic global market analysis, conservative forex trading, assorted special reports, currency diversified income investing, binary options, and trader training articles via multiple websites. His home sites include: globalmarkets.anyoption.com, thesensibleguidetoforex.com, caesartrade.com, globalmarkets.com, and others. Most can also be found at leading financial websites like seekingalpha.com, businessinsider.com, and forex sites like forexfactory.com and fxstreet.com. His work is regularly translated into numerous languages, including Spanish, French, Italian, Turkish and Russian, Arabic, German, and Chinese, often with his express knowledge and permission!
He has appeared in a variety of offline publications including Forex Journal, and John Nyaradi’s book, Super Sectors, in which he was interviewed along with other market experts like Jim Rodgers, Dr.Marc Faber, John Mauldin, Robert Prechter, and Tom Lydon.
Prior to his current positions, he was Chief Analyst at avafx.com, and a 30+ year financial market veteran as investor, trader, writer, analyst and advisor to private clients and institutions. He attended Vassar College and Cornell University, and is a certified public accountant.
He’s married with 5 children and lives in Jerusalem, Israel, where he can follow Asian markets in the early morning, Europe through the workday, and the Americas at night.
Jason LaValley is a financial services professional in New York City, working in a variety of internal audit and risk management positions for a significant financial services company. While Jason doesn't manage investment portfolios directly, other than his own, he is focused on the impact of macro environment fundamentals on the equity markets. Jason is confident in the potential of this ambitious, determined and wonderfully free nation's economy and he is a professed Christian interested in Biblical precepts regarding wisdom with money.
Atim Kabra is the founding partner of Frontline Strategy Limited (http://www.frontlinestrategy.com/), the investment manager/advisor for two private equity funds and sponsor of an angel investing forum (www.ccubeangels.com). He has over 20 years of well-rounded “equities exposure” including Portfolio Management, Equity Sales and Equity Research with global institutions like ABN AMRO Bank. After a stint in the equity research section at ABN Amro Securities India, Atim moved to New York City with ABN Amro Inc. where he set up the subcontinent equity sales desk. He quit ABN Amro in 2000 to set up the private equity funds. He is now based in Singapore. Atim Kabra has a degree in economics from Delhi University and a master's degree in managment studies from Bombay University.