gdog

Ten Micro Predictions for 2009

This guy's either getting serious tips (from sources in serious violation of SEC regulations), or he's a loud mouthed idiot trying to manipulate the market.

So which is it...

As cynical as I am, he's still more than likely an idiot.

Comeback Stocks

I don't think that's quite correct. If you actually look at some reported beta values for the stocks above, the range is stark. Wachovia, a banking stock, is negative, CBS and KBH is moderate at 1.3, 1.17 respectively and CIT, is nearly 2.

So CIT makes sense, and KBH is heavily tied to home markets, and CBS is under a lot of pressure recently. The point being that Wachovia, CBS, and KBH are clear examples where historical betas are not a good guide in current conditions. There is significant disagreement in the valuations of all three companies, and CBS in particular was recently grossly undervalued.

This is also probably one way the SEC monitors for insider trading.


On Dec 04 10:45 PM joeactuary wrote:

> So essentially you sorted stocks by their Beta. No surprise that
> the large Beta stocks (decile 10) declined the most when the overall
> market declined and improved the most when the overall market went
> up.

Nine Media Predictions for 2009

"8. Social networks will start translating their members into advertising dollars"

This is craziness. Social Media has yet to be proved the run-a-way success people hope for, and the ad revenue monetization is just not there, at least not the way most people have hoped it would be.

Myspace was bought for 800mm, and then turned around and singed a 4 year 900mm deal with Google, and Google claims they got hosed in the deal.

NOw facebook wants to be seriously valued at over 1billion bucks, much less 15bb? Ridiculous.

The number of internet companies with big names and audience, and not a clue on how to make money is staggering, and they all wish they had a solid business model in place now.

The mantra of "build it and they will come..." has been the cry of hundreds of failed valley startups, and little has changed. Expect some spectacular crashes!