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AutoRegressive

AutoRegressive
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  • This Portfolio Has 50% Upside And Will Outperform The Markets Again In 2014-2015 [View article]
    I like your return and strategy for a portion of an overall portfolio. I am going to use this to generate some growth ideas in my portfolio. However, an important indicator to look at is your risk adjusted return. What is the Sharpe ratio of your portfolio?

    If the beta of your portfolio was 3-4 and you returned 120% they you didn't exactly outperform the market in a meaningful way. I doubt your portfolio beta was that high so you did return alpha, but not as much as implied here.
    Jun 26 07:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Amazon's phone: 3D display, Firefly, photo storage, pricing [View news story]
    Amazon is becoming an unfocused company. Trying to be everything all at once is going to lead to large write-offs and failure.

    I can't see why this company is priced as a high tech growth stock. It's on a very fast path to becoming a lumbering tech conglomerate without any earnings. This is not not going to end well.....
    Jun 19 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Seadrill Jack Up Your Income Portfolio? [View article]
    SDRL is a Bermuda entity. There is NO foreign withholding tax on it.
    May 31 11:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Make 70% A Year With Math [View article]
    I would watch this trade right now volatility is extremely low and bound to correct in the next little bit.
    May 29 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: A Better-Positioned Offshore Driller [View article]
    Don't really want to dig much deeper for a blog but I would assume that they would have done some hedging on the cashflows in (I assume USD) used to pay of the notes in NOK. It's a pretty simplistic thing compared to the other financial engineering going on in the company.
    Apr 30 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple looks to raise $17B in bond sale [View news story]
    The 43.5 BN used for buybacks is looking like a pretty damn good idea with the price pushing towards $600.
    Apr 28 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: A Better-Positioned Offshore Driller [View article]
    Sdrl has used financial instruments to hedge it's debt against interest rises. As of last quarter they entered into IR swaps (They fixed Interest Rates) for 9,776,000,000 of the total 13,466,000,000 debt outstanding.

    The remaining 3,690,000,000 in debt is about what is equal to be due within the next 2 years. So IR increases are not the big deal everyone in making them out to be.
    ____
    (In US$ millions) As at December 31,
    2013
    Twelve months ended December 31, 2014 1,566
    Twelve months ended December 31, 2015 2,608
    Twelve months ended December 31, 2016 1,586
    Twelve months ended December 31, 2017 3,299
    Twelve months ended December 31, 2018 and thereafter 4,480
    Effect of amortization of convertible bond (73)
    Total debt 13,466
    Apr 27 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple to raise more debt for cash returns; Cook open to big acquisitions [View news story]
    I think lowering WACC is pretty important to shareholders.....
    Apr 23 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Spikes On Weak Inventory Build, Poised For Move To $5 [View article]
    I agree with the equity market correlation. I have noticed when equities are having a down day nat gas is usually showing strong gains.
    Apr 11 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King sells off following IPO [View news story]
    Looks like I can short it now on interactive. I'm not brave enough after a 10% drop.
    Mar 26 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King sells off following IPO [View news story]
    I was hoping this thing took off today so I could short it.
    Mar 26 10:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech giants enjoy tax-free interest on offshore Treasury holdings [View news story]
    Explain to me why I need to defend my use of a common term to you? By using it you know exactly what I'm talking about. Get of your high horse and back to your intermediate accounting studies.
    Mar 13 10:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech giants enjoy tax-free interest on offshore Treasury holdings [View news story]
    The tax system is terrible. Why should a company that buys a product in China and sells it in Europe have to pay taxes in the US? What service does the government provide for that transaction?

    I love how the gov't is printing money hand over fist to stimulate the economy when all they need to do is allow corporate money to flow back. They can then tax dividends, capital gains and re-tax over and over as the money flows through economic cycle.

    Instead they force companies to horde cash, issue debt and give a tax deductions so they pay even lower taxes.
    Mar 13 10:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Dividend Aristocrats Currently On Sale [View article]
    P/E is actually 23.5
    Mar 12 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: $635 Price Target Feels Right [View article]
    Using Bloomberg the PEG is 0.70. (still very low)

    Compiled estimated of LTG is determined at 17.88
    *Long Term Growth Forecasts are received directly from contributing analysts, they are not calculated by BEst. While different analysts apply different methodologies, the Long Term Growth Forecast generally represents an expected annual increase in operating earnings per share over the company's next full business cycle. In general, these forecasts refer to a period of between three to five years.
    Mar 12 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
177 Comments
248 Likes