kd2000

India: The Next Subprime Crisis?

It is not easy to get a loan in India regardless of economy and liquidity! There is no chance of credit bubble in India. It can only be created by big corporations, not by a average consumer. Further the dollar amounts are way significantly less. Average person credit card limit is like $250. Besides India is not like US, shop till death and file bankruptcy and walk away laughing at your lenders. Even if you get jailed in US these people are watching cable and enjoying free food. India people who don't pay get beaten up and harassed by goons! Even banks indirectly employ goons!

5 Reasons Natural Gas Is Poised to Bounce Back

The main point here there is no real shortage of natural gas or is it ? Reducing supply and then increasing supply on need will only cause a temporary jump in price!! Basically if you don't time and sell the commodity, it will drop back again when supply meets demand again! The last jumps and spikes were because three reasons
1. Easy money supply, and
2. Artificially inflated prices because of lot of money chasing commodities in general.
3. Stupid fear that we are running out of OIL, so gas and coal are next best resources. There never was real shortage of OIL either. Refiners just did not want to refine. High OIL price was a bubble in itself. Even at $50 it is a mini rebound bubble.

I see neither of those conditions in next 5 to 10 years. This economy was leveraged several trillions of dollars! who thinks here that kind of binge spending is coming back again.

Low Oil Prices Kill Energy Investment

I don't buy that, if there is money to be made in alternative energy and enough subsidies from the Govt. for profits, it will be implemented. Remember that this is capitalist economy. Further middle east is getting busy to build Solar plants, because they want to sell energy in any form. Regardless of OIL price, if there are customers wanting to buy alternative energy, someone is going to make it. We are seeing the change of consumer sentiment going forward towards alternative energy in general. I won't buy a Hummer H2 if you sold it to me for half the price. If the new administration does not come up with sound energy policies to mitigate dependency on foreign OIL or fossil fuels, then it will be toast! Only way to create jobs in this economy is invest in alternative energy infrastucture! It is unavoidable now. Even Detroit's Big 3 are being pressured in that direction. Bottom line is now the consumer wants it! and consumer is King.

Is the Second Great Depression Imminent?

There never was any shortage of OIL at any point was it! It has always been a refining shortage. The fake shortage was created by traders and speculators to bubble up OIL prices. Iran made a comment that they can even live at $5 / barrel OIL. There are tons of OIL reserves in middle east. Iran / Iraq has huge reserves. OIL simply was not profitable for companies to make substantial investment in last 10 years. Rise in OIL prices has invigorated these investments now! Further middle east is desert with lot of free SUN ! and they are investing heavily in solar plants essentially to offset decline in OIL reserves long term. Idea is to sell energy in any form to rest of the world. Customers want a new product (Solar energy) let's build one!

India's Strong Growth Should Continue

>>The GDP growth estimate by the central bank has now been >>revised to 7.5% vs. an assumption of 8.5%.
>>It is very attractive if you compare the following growth forecasts: >>US: 1.3%, Europe: 1.5%, Japan: 0.7%,
This stupid statement I hear all the time - Has anyone actually compared the $$ amount tied to 7.5% vs $$$$$ amount
to 1.3% in US!! My company grew 100% this year, my revenue went from 100K to 200K. While my friends company grew only 10% but his revenues grew 50 million to 55 million. Where did real money go ? in 100K or 5 million ?

Further no point comparing to JAPAN, India has 1 billion people and the aspiring consumer list for cars, real estate, foreign goods etc is only growing everyday like China, and not compressing as in US / Europe and Japan. Std of living is already high in West! More people in India/China become richer every few years who can now afford luxury goods, while in the West it is saturated and cyclical, people start reducing consumption of big and small ticket items during downturns. That is why India/China are considered emerging growth markets..