Mr.G

Gold Bugs Beware

Adam -
lets say in march 08 I bought all of my gold at 1000/ounce without dollar cost averaging - with that one ounce at the time(march 08) I could trade it in for 364 gallons of unleaded gasoline(gas was 2.75/ gal nymex mar 08)- Today I could sell the same ounce at $720.00 and buy 497.55 gallons at 1.45 a gallon.you get pretty much the same result across the board -wheat -oil- nat gas-copper -silver- Thats value in a deflationary situation
my point being price doesnt matter to a gold bug as much as him maintaining his purchasing power - is he upset prices arent acting better in the current situation ? absolutely , but the preservation of purchasing power outweighs it and risk is at a minimum (if no leverage)- the strong dollar- yen could turn in 24 hours or 10 weeks but it will happen very quickly who wants that risk?

Gold Bugs Beware

Your analysis is great -except for one thing. You dont take into account the goldbug(just as many permabears in equity markets think the dow should be at much much lower levels fundamentally speaking but fail to take bulls into account) -The goldbugs are true bulls -many are dollar cost averaging and the price whether up or down, it signals buy -buy- buy . I think you may ruffle some of their feathers with this article-being they are goldbugs - The spread between physical prices and paper is where you will here it most

Countdown of Manipulated Gold Price Running Out

why does everyone talk about taking delivery of huge quatities on comex - the mini gold / silver would be a much easier feat for personal investors /retail

Gold / Silver Ratio Tops 80 to 1

delivery from comex /nyse mini's- great idea! The first time doing it would probably be a nightmare but it would cut down the cost of getting middled from the retail side -

Gold Prices Keep Getting Fishier

The gold market seems to be haunted by ghosts- the mints dont seem to have the gold to make coins ???
bullion bars from monex -kitco - northwest territory mint all sell one ounce bars at or a very small margin over spot price -
what it means I have no idea - but if there is a shortage maybe it is better to go into bullion rather than coins where there is a lot of supply

Stocks Plunge, Again

today is the tenth - if the dow only losses 3% it will probably feel like a rally

Stocks Plunge, Again

spider etf is a govt intervention waiting to happen - if things go farther south expect the govt to buy it for pennies on the dollar

Kevin Kerr on Copper and Corn

copper closing below 240 is basically saying the end of the world is here -
it isnt and it will come back strong - the question is "where is the bottom?" -
I disagree with the gold outlook -the prices have come down off their highs but you can buy more commodities today with an ounce of gold than when it was at 1000.00 -I think it will maintain this spread or even grow - because when commodities do make their bounce back it is more likely going to be from inflationary pressure not so much demand

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I dont think the govt will actually purchase stocks to stop the slide -but it wouldnt surprise me if they closed markets at this point while they fix some seriously screwed up fundamentals - at the same time closing banks across the nation and limiting ATM withdrawals -
If they do it they will load the deck for a rally when the market reopens

Dollar and Gold Rise Simultaneously? Bring On the Flying Pigs

if you are looking for the reason pigs are flying it is simple - the fed is creating new dollars -but so is every CB in the world (or they expected to) so therefore when its calculated how many dollars will be printed compared to other countries to dilute the problem the dollar rises -at the same time the dollars created will make gold more expensive or create future inflationary pressures as well as all the other currencies -and that is my theory why pigs are flying

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

there wont be capitulation for all those waiting for one - the fed and the treasury can literally inject 100 billion into seven banks if it like right now or 1 billion to 700 banks and can get more money if they want - this isnt the 1930's where they have to find more gold to back their dollars it is fiat currency and can literally be printed out of thin air (there is an unlimited supply ) - all the CB's around the world will be forced to do the same so- the dollar wont crash - In the last 2 weeks alone (before the new 900 billion auction and the bailout) has been printing at 200% increase - the assets or credit derivatives will be so diluted by the amount of dollars flowing they will just an a small expense rather than an insurmountable problem that you see today - this crises will be drowned in a dollar or whatever currency your central bank happen to print -with maybe the exception being iceland

The Amazing Dollar - Gold Correlation

big money -deflation is the problem right now everything is being liquidated and deleveraged including gold and I recently read an article where palladium and platinum futures are so down you would think the world had stopped spinning (in other words the price is so low it cant be produced at those costs but at the same time it might reflect future demand and if that is the case the price is saying there wont be any like zero ) . I personally am hoping it is an overreaction to this mess and a correction will take place soon -but you cant count anything out

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

best article I have read today - something is fundamentally wrong with precious metals markets - silver and palladium platinum are great examples which arent making any sense - If you adhere to market theory that every possible fundamental is included in price than according to this the world has stopped turning on its axis -and well that hasnt happened being I am typing a comment right now.

Gold Bulls: Beware

you are right - what happens when congress passes that check over to Paulson ? plain and simple the marked to market acounting reg is going to be manipulated big time - with no oversight all Paulson has to do is way over pay for the toxic debt setting market prices and making bankers solvent on paper - I was wondering why this regulation wasnt being taken off the books -I figured out why about ten minutes ago -bizarre how easily this can be done . The banks with the most credit derivatives get the biggest asset jump on their balance sheets- the US govt is the market and will set price - Talk about putting a market in a corner!!

The Amazing Dollar - Gold Correlation

The corelation is the stronger the dollar the more gold it will buy-the more groceries it will buy -the more gas it will buy (this correlation is why gold is an inflation hedge ) -so therefore the price of gold drops - that is the simple thinking behind it -gold is no longer considered money by the majority of investors -If it were literally head to head where gold was a paper currency (you could walk into any bank and exchange it for dollars the story would be much different ) e-bullion or gold money are making making an attempt at it but it would be considered unlawful if they were to print money backed by gold -In an article you recently wrote there was rumors of the russian ruble perhaps doing this - That would really change everything because once again gold would be seen as a viable everyday currency in circulation that is easily exchanged for dollars -today it is a metal which is not in use
-this is something for the imagination/fun. imagine if every dollar bill had a 1/32(.03125) of a gram of gold thread in it today and the price of gold is 1000 per ounce- it would equal one dollar or 1.01 cents if rounded and a 100 dollar bill would have 3.125 grams thread into it (that would be a pretty cool looking bill but still pretty heavy!)-now imagine the price of gold goes to 3000 -it would be pretty easy to carry that money around