JosephKr's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/231879/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/96952-the-google-phone-blockbuster-or-bust?source=feed#comment-263142 263142
1) Google touts open platform for all and then ties itself to an exclusive with fairly one tenth the coverage of its major competitor (in this case Apple), not counting unknown deals for other countries (where Apple is already well-established).

2) Apple has already sold 5 million iphones in Q3 and is well on track to exceed this in Q4, regardless of any perceived economic downturn whether domestically or abroad.

3) The current market instability will hopefully get resolved once Congress gets off its collective tuchuss and gives Messrs Paulsen and Bernanke what they need to restore investor confidence (and thanks to Mr. Buffett for his move today). at which point everyone who bought Apple between $120 and $130 is gonna be ecstatic with the results when the stock goes right back to $180 to $190 where it rightfully belongs (and beyond).]]> Wed, 24 Sep 2008 00:46:39 -0400
1) Google touts open platform for all and then ties itself to an exclusive with fairly one tenth the coverage of its major competitor (in this case Apple), not counting unknown deals for other countries (where Apple is already well-established).

2) Apple has already sold 5 million iphones in Q3 and is well on track to exceed this in Q4, regardless of any perceived economic downturn whether domestically or abroad.

3) The current market instability will hopefully get resolved once Congress gets off its collective tuchuss and gives Messrs Paulsen and Bernanke what they need to restore investor confidence (and thanks to Mr. Buffett for his move today). at which point everyone who bought Apple between $120 and $130 is gonna be ecstatic with the results when the stock goes right back to $180 to $190 where it rightfully belongs (and beyond).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93699-five-reasons-steve-ballmer-thinks-apple-s-a-buy?source=feed#comment-245094 245094 "Fact is, an Apple Macbook costs $1049, which is maybe $300 more than a crappy Windows laptop."

AND...wait a second....that MacBook will also run Windows.....BETTER and FASTER than the comparable Windows machine! So in fact, you are buying TWO MACHINES FOR THE PRICE OF ONE!

THIS IS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE.

Maybe not $650, but I'll bet when the next quarterly report comes out, $250-$275 will not be out of the realm of possibility. You heard it here first.]]> Thu, 04 Sep 2008 01:02:22 -0400 "Fact is, an Apple Macbook costs $1049, which is maybe $300 more than a crappy Windows laptop."

AND...wait a second....that MacBook will also run Windows.....BETTER and FASTER than the comparable Windows machine! So in fact, you are buying TWO MACHINES FOR THE PRICE OF ONE!

THIS IS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE.

Maybe not $650, but I'll bet when the next quarterly report comes out, $250-$275 will not be out of the realm of possibility. You heard it here first.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91409-apple-great-company-with-lofty-valuation-due-for-pullback?source=feed#comment-233732 233732 Apparently you didn't do this, which immediately casts doubt on the whole validity of your article, let alone the glaring errors in assumption that you make.
Just enjoy yourself as you keep watching the stock rise over time. You can think about all the money you either left on the table or lost outright.
Disclosure: VERY long Apple. (and darn glad to be there!)]]> Tue, 19 Aug 2008 03:24:33 -0400 Apparently you didn't do this, which immediately casts doubt on the whole validity of your article, let alone the glaring errors in assumption that you make.
Just enjoy yourself as you keep watching the stock rise over time. You can think about all the money you either left on the table or lost outright.
Disclosure: VERY long Apple. (and darn glad to be there!)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90760-best-buy-to-sell-iphones-the-symbiosis-grows?source=feed#comment-229892 229892 This is like a juggernaut that just knows no limits and keeps getting stronger and stronger and stronger......]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 00:20:51 -0400 This is like a juggernaut that just knows no limits and keeps getting stronger and stronger and stronger......]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90760-best-buy-to-sell-iphones-the-symbiosis-grows?source=feed#comment-229891 229891 Now let's look at the possibility of Best Buy numbers:
If Best Buy just rolls the iPhone into the existing 970 US stores (they have another 400 or so elsewhere), and sels only 10 per week per store, then for the remaining 18 or so weeks between Sept 1 and the end of the year, that's another mere 174,600 phones. At a subsidy of only $350 per phone (go the low side on this), that's a mere $61,110,000 added to Apple's bottom line.
Now, does anyone in their right mind expect Best Buy to average only 10 phones per store per week?!
Let;s try more like 10 phones per store per DAY.
That turns the cash into $414,190,000 for Apple's bottom line.
So now you see why this move makes eminent sense. And those numbers only take into account the September to December period, including (let's not forget), the holiday selling season!
So now you know what to expect just from that little move.
So....do you think the stock is going to sit at $179 and change for long?]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 00:18:38 -0400 Now let's look at the possibility of Best Buy numbers:
If Best Buy just rolls the iPhone into the existing 970 US stores (they have another 400 or so elsewhere), and sels only 10 per week per store, then for the remaining 18 or so weeks between Sept 1 and the end of the year, that's another mere 174,600 phones. At a subsidy of only $350 per phone (go the low side on this), that's a mere $61,110,000 added to Apple's bottom line.
Now, does anyone in their right mind expect Best Buy to average only 10 phones per store per week?!
Let;s try more like 10 phones per store per DAY.
That turns the cash into $414,190,000 for Apple's bottom line.
So now you see why this move makes eminent sense. And those numbers only take into account the September to December period, including (let's not forget), the holiday selling season!
So now you know what to expect just from that little move.
So....do you think the stock is going to sit at $179 and change for long?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90346-iphone-apps-one-month-60-million-downloads?source=feed#comment-228371 228371 Tue, 12 Aug 2008 00:05:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90340-iphone-app-developers-find-weaknesses-in-at-t-s-fake-walls?source=feed#comment-228370 228370 Tue, 12 Aug 2008 00:04:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90346-iphone-apps-one-month-60-million-downloads?source=feed#comment-228365 228365 Anyway, back to the important point here: Your intrepid blog contributor here went out on a collective limb and predicted that the stock would trade between $180 and $185 by the close Monday (today). We almost made it. The high was $176.50 towards the 2/3 mark of today's session. The stock settled up $4 and change, whcih still isn;t bad, but I admit that I missed the mark by sizable margin.
See? Someone who takes responsibility for being wrong.
However, if you take a closer look at the App store numbers and extrapolate the significance of 22 extra countries by August 22, one of them being Singapore with Southeast Asia's largest carrier being the provider, you'll find that aside from the incredibly huge number of dollars the phone sales will bring, it's probably a safe bet that the App store will be closer to the $1 billion mark for Apple within 2 quarters, much more quickly than a full year.
Meantime, let's reserve Tuesday and Wednesday for another "kick" at the $180-$185 cat. I think the stock will make it with room to spare.]]> Mon, 11 Aug 2008 23:47:59 -0400 Anyway, back to the important point here: Your intrepid blog contributor here went out on a collective limb and predicted that the stock would trade between $180 and $185 by the close Monday (today). We almost made it. The high was $176.50 towards the 2/3 mark of today's session. The stock settled up $4 and change, whcih still isn;t bad, but I admit that I missed the mark by sizable margin.
See? Someone who takes responsibility for being wrong.
However, if you take a closer look at the App store numbers and extrapolate the significance of 22 extra countries by August 22, one of them being Singapore with Southeast Asia's largest carrier being the provider, you'll find that aside from the incredibly huge number of dollars the phone sales will bring, it's probably a safe bet that the App store will be closer to the $1 billion mark for Apple within 2 quarters, much more quickly than a full year.
Meantime, let's reserve Tuesday and Wednesday for another "kick" at the $180-$185 cat. I think the stock will make it with room to spare.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89448-research-in-motion-s-3g-counteroffensive-the-smartphone-arms-race-escalates?source=feed#comment-224616 224616 Wed, 06 Aug 2008 23:13:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89448-research-in-motion-s-3g-counteroffensive-the-smartphone-arms-race-escalates?source=feed#comment-224615 224615
The point being missed by most (but not all) on this blog is that the iPhone is NOT, repeat NOT, a phone. It's a mobile computer. I think it very amusing that there is a continual flow of "rumors" surrounding the possibility of a tablet Mac, and meantime the tablet Mac is here. It's the iPhone, a tablet Mac, just a bit smaller (for the time being). And as our friend above just demonstrated, there is a literal army of developers out there willing to make sure that any iPhone shortcomings are quickly overcome by appropriate application innovation that is instantly available through the AppStore!

Now, to those of you out there who think that AT&T is going to sit on its tuchuss and not expand and improve its 3G service in the NYC area, you must be living in a fools' paradise. Ergo, the disparity, whether perceived or real, between Verizon and AT&T and therefore between RIMM and Apple service will shortly become less and less of a factor. This will of course have its inevitable effect on more and more corporate users not only because of service improvements, but because of the advent of MobileMe (a far better implementation of push technology than any competitor's model), and perhaps even the iPod's influence away from the office. (What, you think that corporate BB users don't have families with iPods?)

That may sound weird, but it's an intriguing thought: what if, as a natural progression, mostl current iPod users decide to upgrade? Now let's see: if they're going to upgrade and they have the iPod and a cellphone, wouldn't many think that it made more sense to combine the two devices instead of having to keep separate ones? Gee....I wonder what device they'd be likely to pick? The numbers then become fairly staggering for Apple!

As I stated two nights ago: $180 to $185 by the close Monday. Let's see how good a "Nostradamus" for Apple I turn out to be.]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 23:10:45 -0400
The point being missed by most (but not all) on this blog is that the iPhone is NOT, repeat NOT, a phone. It's a mobile computer. I think it very amusing that there is a continual flow of "rumors" surrounding the possibility of a tablet Mac, and meantime the tablet Mac is here. It's the iPhone, a tablet Mac, just a bit smaller (for the time being). And as our friend above just demonstrated, there is a literal army of developers out there willing to make sure that any iPhone shortcomings are quickly overcome by appropriate application innovation that is instantly available through the AppStore!

Now, to those of you out there who think that AT&T is going to sit on its tuchuss and not expand and improve its 3G service in the NYC area, you must be living in a fools' paradise. Ergo, the disparity, whether perceived or real, between Verizon and AT&T and therefore between RIMM and Apple service will shortly become less and less of a factor. This will of course have its inevitable effect on more and more corporate users not only because of service improvements, but because of the advent of MobileMe (a far better implementation of push technology than any competitor's model), and perhaps even the iPod's influence away from the office. (What, you think that corporate BB users don't have families with iPods?)

That may sound weird, but it's an intriguing thought: what if, as a natural progression, mostl current iPod users decide to upgrade? Now let's see: if they're going to upgrade and they have the iPod and a cellphone, wouldn't many think that it made more sense to combine the two devices instead of having to keep separate ones? Gee....I wonder what device they'd be likely to pick? The numbers then become fairly staggering for Apple!

As I stated two nights ago: $180 to $185 by the close Monday. Let's see how good a "Nostradamus" for Apple I turn out to be.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89107-iphone-production-rumors-swirl?source=feed#comment-223469 223469 Also, for those worried about perfection, you can be sure that some percentage of hpones will have problems. Big deal. It happens with every manufacturer and every handset and should not be taken as an end of the world scenario just because it's Apple and Apple is supposed to be perfect.
Honestly people!]]> Tue, 05 Aug 2008 17:00:24 -0400 Also, for those worried about perfection, you can be sure that some percentage of hpones will have problems. Big deal. It happens with every manufacturer and every handset and should not be taken as an end of the world scenario just because it's Apple and Apple is supposed to be perfect.
Honestly people!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89107-iphone-production-rumors-swirl?source=feed#comment-223466 223466 800K phones per week for these last 26 weeks of the year would equal 20.8 million phones. Let's assume that they make that goal. The range for carrier payment has been from $350 to $500 each. Let's assume just $300. That gives $6.24 BILLION. Assume only a 30% margin, and you have close to an extra $1.9 BILLION in net profit over the next 2 quarters.
Can Apple sell that many phones? As of August 22, there will be 70 countries in the fold selling the phones. Take off the 3 weeks between now and August 22, and that leaves 23 weeks. 800K by 70 countries gives less than 12,000 phones per country per week. I think this is more than achievable, especially if the pundits are correct and Apple's handset share will be only a few percentage points. If anything, Apple ought to be out there figuring out how to find a secondary manufacturer!
As for the stock price, it's been manipulated artificially low. Today it showed some rebound and I expect that it will surge towards $180 to $185 by this time next week. ]]> Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:54:48 -0400 800K phones per week for these last 26 weeks of the year would equal 20.8 million phones. Let's assume that they make that goal. The range for carrier payment has been from $350 to $500 each. Let's assume just $300. That gives $6.24 BILLION. Assume only a 30% margin, and you have close to an extra $1.9 BILLION in net profit over the next 2 quarters.
Can Apple sell that many phones? As of August 22, there will be 70 countries in the fold selling the phones. Take off the 3 weeks between now and August 22, and that leaves 23 weeks. 800K by 70 countries gives less than 12,000 phones per country per week. I think this is more than achievable, especially if the pundits are correct and Apple's handset share will be only a few percentage points. If anything, Apple ought to be out there figuring out how to find a secondary manufacturer!
As for the stock price, it's been manipulated artificially low. Today it showed some rebound and I expect that it will surge towards $180 to $185 by this time next week. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88008-apple-are-investors-overlooking-cash-earnings?source=feed#comment-219862 219862
I predict sales of 15 million iPhones by end of CY08, and a further 35 to 45 million in CY09 as momentum builds and supplies ramp up to satisfy demand.

The point many analysts miss is that this is not just a phone. It's a real computing platform, the start of a trend which will be amplified significantly with continued software improvements (for example advanced GPS capabilities) and a new product announcement within the next two to four months

Couple this with the app store and even assuming that each new user of the iPhone spends an average of just $10.00 in the app store and you see the potential for another free billion of revenue which will be accounted for on an immediate basis.

Actual FCF/share will resemble something more like $20.

The stock is still extremely underpriced at $250 let alone $160. A more reasonable expectation within two quarters would be between $275 and $300, and that doesn't assume an interim split. Assuming 35x, it should even give Google a run for its money on a per share price.

Those willing to be aggressive on accumulation and willing to wait out what I feel is a contrived pullback will be richly rewarded.]]> Fri, 01 Aug 2008 02:29:47 -0400
I predict sales of 15 million iPhones by end of CY08, and a further 35 to 45 million in CY09 as momentum builds and supplies ramp up to satisfy demand.

The point many analysts miss is that this is not just a phone. It's a real computing platform, the start of a trend which will be amplified significantly with continued software improvements (for example advanced GPS capabilities) and a new product announcement within the next two to four months

Couple this with the app store and even assuming that each new user of the iPhone spends an average of just $10.00 in the app store and you see the potential for another free billion of revenue which will be accounted for on an immediate basis.

Actual FCF/share will resemble something more like $20.

The stock is still extremely underpriced at $250 let alone $160. A more reasonable expectation within two quarters would be between $275 and $300, and that doesn't assume an interim split. Assuming 35x, it should even give Google a run for its money on a per share price.

Those willing to be aggressive on accumulation and willing to wait out what I feel is a contrived pullback will be richly rewarded.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86581-apple-erases-all-of-post-earnings-losses?source=feed#comment-212942 212942 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 01:00:48 -0400