SBgal

News Flash: Major Market Turns Aren't Announced In Advance

I bought my first house in Venice, CA in 1983 during a falling market for $160K. Six years later it was worth $350K. Two years ago I moved to Santa Barbara from Ventura and read the advice of the few contrarians who were sounding the alarm on future house declines, so rented out my home and rented here. Everyone thought I was nuts because prices were soaring and popular sentiment was that prices would never come down because the supply of houses was limited and the population increasing. Now Santa Barbara/Goleta is down 29%. At the end of last year, I read contrarian articles on Seeking Alpha on the coming stock decline--once again during a strong bull market. I listened to the contrarians, sold most of my stock and bought smaller positions (from advice found on Seeking Alpha) in POT (almost doubled now) and AAPL (up 21%). In economics class in college, I read good advice that has served me well in the many years since then--when everyone's gung ho and sure the current boom will never end--get out quick! When everyone turns glum and denies any glimmer of hope--jump in! I'm in the market for a house and I'm seeing nice properties with tons of amenities at bargain prices. I wish I had a pile of cash to buy up rental property here on the Central Coast because houses are popping up where the rental could pay the mortgage. Let the people who just woke up rant, quietly buy up stocks and real estate.