National Oilwell Varco: Growing Company At A Discount [View article]
I agree with the author's analysis. The only question is timing. I believe that NOV is trading at or below fair value. If Romney won the election it would be a no-brainer. With this administration... not so much. All the market forces and data are being manipulated. Government bureaucrats are interfering in every aspect of the economy with onerousness regulations. They are negatively affecting outcomes.
It is hard to ignore low interest rates, but I am waiting for a major sell off before adding to my positions. In the meantime I will invest in companies less sensitive to US government action or do nothing until the S--- hits the fan.
I am currently long NOV. I looked at it today in this down market and still decided to pass on adding to my position. I will add it to my shopping list but with wait for the political shack out of those running the country and interfering in the markets.
Google (GOOG) is selling Motorola Home for $2.35B ($2.05B in cash + $300M in stock) to Arris (ARRS). The division, which sells set-top boxes, infrastructure gear, and other hardware to pay-TV and broadband providers, had revenue of $3.4B in the 4 quarters ending Sep. 30. Arris, which closed with a market cap of just $1.65B, is halted. The deal will be "significantly accretive" to Arris' EPS and give Google a 15.7% stake in the company, which will probably have to raise a lot of debt to finance the purchase. (previous) [View news story]
It is probably a good decision for Google to break off the set top business from Motorola mobile. Its needs to focus more on core businesses. I believe mobile will be one that will become more important when consumers start excepting the used of mobile devices for financial transactions and replacements for credit cards. Google should make sure it positions itself to be able to shape the direction of the services in the future.
Why YouTube (GOOG) is dominating mobile video: an IAB study of U.S. mobile video viewers found 45% watch music videos, 42% movie trailers, 41% tutorials, and 37% "funny short video clips." In other winds, the kinds of short-form video content the Google site is well-known for. Also encouraging for YouTube is the fact 53% of respondents said they're "positive or neutrally receptive" to mobile video ads - a question like that usually understates the actual willingness to watch an ad. [View news story]
YouTube is a very under rated Google service. When one needs to learn a new skill or just wants to do something new it is a good place to go. It is amazing to find such a variety of topics and an endless supply of people that post knowledgeable information on the subject.
I like the fact that the video postings produced are open to the public both amateur and professional. The open nature of the format is truly refreshing. Even the comments posted after the videos occasionally have useful information and links to products and services.
Nvidia (NVDA) +0.6% AH after BSN passes on a very questionable rumor Intel (INTC) is thinking of buying the company and making Nvidia chief Jen-Hsun Huang its next CEO. Antitrust regulators probably wouldn't take kindly to Intel buying the world's #1 GPU vendor. BSN: "This rumor should be taken not with a grain of salt, but rather with a whole 18-wheeler truck filled with the said ingredient." [View news story]
I would love to go to that wedding. I agree it will never happen unless Nvidia is in financial trouble. Nvidia is not. Both are very good companies. I owned both but gave up on NVDA for better opportunities elsewhere.
Android Is Dead - Part 2: Titans Clash [View article]
It is way... way... too early to definitively declare tech winners and losers in the smart phone / Tablet and mobile computing space. GS is not exactly doing that well since it joined the ranks of the "too large to fail" commercial banks and De-leverage its activities. They have lost their mystic and status as the brokerage firm you should stop and listen to them when they speak. Where is E.F. Hutton these days when you need them?
Regarding how consumers will use these appliances in the future... No one knows what to make of them yet. That includes me. I like portability. I like the paperless features and nature of the appliances. Gamers and older folks still like desktops and give away their laptops for tablet and smart phone mobility. Others like me like laptops with a keyboard at home to do real work and just occasionally use tablets as book and news readers. Laptops are bigger, fast, and are more useful for business.
Everyone I know and see in public still uses mostly smart phones. In my opinion this is the platform that will become the most useful to all consumers. It is portable. It will replace credit cards, tickets, paper receipts, photo albums, GPS units and much more. Smart phones will become cheaper. Everyone will have one as a phone and also use it for several of the other uses above if not all.
The government is subsidizing them for the poor and the entitlement crowd. That alone is what will make them ubiquitous. Going forward I believe the features, functionality and quality will all be very close and none will be able to charge a Christian Louboutin cache premium for a consumer commodity. Not even the Apple snobs. Nobody in there right mind will pay more than $200 when they all are alike. It is a friggin phone. A portable electronic appliance. Free content, usefulness, ease of use and $$ COST will drive who sells the most. Financial Transactions fees and paperless activity convenience not advertising will drive revenues from smart phones. Laptops and tablets should and will be interchangeable based on the personal preferences of consumers. I can see a need to synchronize some contain between the two. Those that need processing power to do useful business will continue using Laptops with and without docks. Some will still use desktops because of data security. Web users and book and news readers will use either laptops or tablets at home and smart phones on the road.
Google, Apple, Microsoft will all make money based on the contain they dream up and provide. The profit margins will be dictated to the providers by the consumers. Not the other way around.
The right-to-work bill in Michigan awaiting Governor Snyder's signature won't have any impact on the bottom line of the Big Three anytime soon, but could pull at the thread of the organized labor movement in the state, according to analysts. With the unions able to flex their muscles with the Detroit automakers historically, the question now centers on if future labor negotiations could be influenced, if even just a shade? [View news story]
Please... How much more do union members earn when their companies go out of business? Detroit is just full of good higher paying jobs. If the work environment and living standards in Detroit is so good because of Unions why has there been a 50% decline on population between 1960 and now?
The right-to-work issue in Michigan isn't going unnoticed by labor unions. UAW President Bob King was at the state's Capitol building leading a protest against legislation that would allows workers to opt out of unions and not pay dues. The state House passed the measure yesterday by 58-42, sending it along to the Senate. Though the Big Three are deathly quiet on the issue, it wouldn't be a stretch to imagine weakened union laws in Michigan could help bottom lines. [View news story]
There was a time when unions benefited the workers and the communities where the companies that employed them were based. Both private and especially the public sector union leadership have jumped the shark. The unions have been destroying American industry and the economy since the early 60s. It supports mediocrity and less innovation in the name of protecting the worker. The dues that the workers pay have nothing to do with helping them get better working conditions. The funds invite criminal activity and are nothing more than Democrat party funding sources. They are definitely not on the side of the American people nor the workers they claim to represent.
Google+ (GOOG) now has 135M monthly active users, up from 100M in September, says division chief Vic Gundotra. Moreover, 235M people are using Google+ features such as the +1 button and Hangouts. But no details are given on user engagement, which from all signs is significantly below that shown by Facebook's (FB) 1B+ MAUs. In June, Google+ users were reported to be spending a mere 12 minutes/month on the service; comScore recently estimated Facebook's U.S. users averaged 517 minutes/month. [View news story]
So What!!! More minutes online do not necessarily equal more sales revenue. When I want to buy something I "Google" it and choose from a list of websites that may have the product I want at the price I want to pay. I may go to Youtube and search to see if anyone posted a product demo or perhaps their personal product review. The other day I was viewing a serious of Youtube videos on a subject I wanted to learn how to do and before I could skip the ads a tool I was often thinking of making for myself because I did not believe it existed was advertised. I linked to the web site and happily bought it on the spot.
Google is not just search or advertising. It is a valuable gateway to information sources for almost any subject on earth. What is Facebook? It is a place the police and the government go to see who you are and what you have been doing just like my comment on this site.
I am long Google and happy about its current business model.
For whom H-P's (HPQ) FQ4 results toll: Dell (DELL) -1.9% premarket, Intel (INTC) -1.6%, AMD -1%. H-P reported a 14% Y/Y drop in PC revenue and 12% drops in both desktop and notebook shipments. The drop in commercial PC revenue (13%) was nearly as bad as the drop in consumer PC revenue (16%). [View news story]
In case no one has heard companies are not hiring and lots of Americans are unemployed. This is not the best environment for discretionary PC purchases. Maybe those that have OBAMA phones can ask for OBAMA PCs from the Democrats to simulate growth in the sector. Maybe Santa Claus will give them one for Christmas. Doesn't the EBT card include consumer electronics?
Intel's Dividend Safe, Even If It Seems Too Good To Be True [View article]
Tablets and smart phones may cut into the laptop and desktop market share, but I do know anyone with the former that do not have the latter and is planning to give up the latter in the near or distant feature.
Last time I looked IBM, DELL, HP, Network appliance, EMC, Google, and any other companies in the business of information storage and delivery are planning to replace or even reduce their data storage and delivery methods because of tablets and smart phones.
I am a buyer of INTC ever time it goes below $20 at least until something better comes along to replace server processors.
Ford (F) plans to build its new Transit Connect Wagon in Spain due to a lack of manufacturing capacity in North America. The decision appears to be based on simple math. According to Ford VP Jim Tetreault, the automaker is already operating at 114% in North America. [View news story]
It's amazing that Ford can build any cars and trucks in the USA. The cost of production and labor cannot possibly be favorable in this geopolitical environment. The UAW failed to do to Ford what it did to GM. Then again the UAW has 4 more long years to try to do that again. Stockholders cannot make any other comment or decision without more information on the numbers behind the decision. Then again Europe is not much better. Ford would be crazy to build a plant in Turkey with the political unrest in that region.
Still long Ford, but am watching the position closely.
Google's (GOOG) iOS search app has been updated to bear a much closer resemblance to Google Now, which was released earlier this year for Android. Many reviewers have declared Google Now, whose "cards" push personalized and location-specific information to users, to be superior to Apple's (AAPL) Siri. Yesterday, it received an Android update featuring new cards and voice commands. The more iOS users rely on Google's app for searches instead of mobile Safari, the less Google has to pay Apple in traffic acquisition costs. [View news story]
History repeats itself. Commercial users boycotted the open architecture of generic personal computers in favor of proprietary IBM Micro channel PC architecture in the 80s. The argument was that everything integrated through one company was more expensive but much more reliable and better . Competition proved them wrong. Then again you may be one of those stupid women that will pay $4500 for a designer handbag to hold lipstick that they could put in their pocket just to show of the in public.
Apple is a great company with good products. Eventually competition will move the industry to a cheaper product with feature as good if not better than Apple. You can boycott other products all you want. All that you'll give is a chance to pay higher prices for fewer features. This is already starting to happen. Apple's 5s iphone is bigger than the 4s. Why is that? Could it be that the bigger Droids had more appeal?
Ford Remains A Buy On Decisive European Restructuring [View article]
Good article about what is going on in Europe. Sound like 2008 in Obama's America all over again in Europe. The cost of energy for manufacturing in Europe and the price of gasoline to the European consumer is going to bring down the European Union much sooner than I expected. Hopefully America will survive the decline.
America must come up with a practical energy policy and a reduced tax structure to attract European capital and manufacturing before this house of cards falls. America needs better leadership to make that happen before the S--t hits the fan all over the world and we all go under.
This should be a lesson to America. Socialism fails wherever it is tried. Because it takes generations to fail no one remembers history and it repeats.
Intel Now A Buy - Historically Oversold Relative To Trading Range [View article]
Looking at a simple seeking alpha 10 year chart INTC has reached 22 8 times. It has traded down to 18 5 times in the same period. Currently it yields 4% at 22. Not counting dividend yield if you always purchased INTC at 18 and stop loss at 22 you definitely would make money over 10 years. Each trade would be at least 22% the trading period. Even using a dull pencil with no special trading tools Nadler's argument has merit.
Another thought is that you can do OK if you buy INTC when its yield is 4% and sell it when the yield drops to 2% and you have a better place to put the cash. In this market sitting in INTC at 4% yield is better than cash at money market rates.
Where was this story 50% ago? Its cover showing a tombstone engraved "R.I.P. PC," Barron's says DELL and H-P (HPQ) will fade from view. Next up for trouble could be Microsoft (MSFT), seemingly cheap at 9X 2013 earnings, but which reported sales at its Windows unit off by a third Y/Y after backing out pre-sales for Windows 8. The world awaits the launch of Surface at midnight on Friday. More winners/losers here. [View news story]
There is a lot going on in the technology sector these days bad economy aside. To say the PC is dead is a tad premature. One article cannot possibly cover it all nor can it predict the future in tech. Tech is not static. Tech is going through some real and dramatic changes. It has been doing this for 6 decades. Longer than most of the critics have been alive.
In this decade it's the growth and use of Cloud technology, current very powerful and reliable processors allow the development of virtual OS and application technology (Cloud), the need for massive real time storage requirements for instant access of information. The changes still to come in networking and information delivery speeds. How consumers are using electronics to enhance their life styles. Desktop PCs, Laptop PCs, smart phones, normal size tablets, smaller sized tablets, flat paneled TVs, smart TVs. It is all changing at lightening speed. Our kids think this has always existed and is inventing new ways to use it.
What's the big deal? The Barrons article is looking at this and selling a paper that is reporting current trends. They are saying the trend is away from some companies and in favor of others. That is what they are all about. While I agree with this conclusion I disagree that these down arrow companies will disappear. I do agree with Barrons current picks for the companies with up arrows. While they are in the best positions to take advantage of the current technology trends the other companies have managements the can see what their competition is going and have lots of free cash flow for M&A. They are not going to stand by and let the competition eat their lunch. As long as the government does interfere with free market competition we will have a chance to make money.
National Oilwell Varco: Growing Company At A Discount [View article]
It is hard to ignore low interest rates, but I am waiting for a major sell off before adding to my positions. In the meantime I will invest in companies less sensitive to US government action or do nothing until the S--- hits the fan.
I am currently long NOV. I looked at it today in this down market and still decided to pass on adding to my position. I will add it to my shopping list but with wait for the political shack out of those running the country and interfering in the markets.
Google (GOOG) is selling Motorola Home for $2.35B ($2.05B in cash + $300M in stock) to Arris (ARRS). The division, which sells set-top boxes, infrastructure gear, and other hardware to pay-TV and broadband providers, had revenue of $3.4B in the 4 quarters ending Sep. 30. Arris, which closed with a market cap of just $1.65B, is halted. The deal will be "significantly accretive" to Arris' EPS and give Google a 15.7% stake in the company, which will probably have to raise a lot of debt to finance the purchase. (previous) [View news story]
Why YouTube (GOOG) is dominating mobile video: an IAB study of U.S. mobile video viewers found 45% watch music videos, 42% movie trailers, 41% tutorials, and 37% "funny short video clips." In other winds, the kinds of short-form video content the Google site is well-known for. Also encouraging for YouTube is the fact 53% of respondents said they're "positive or neutrally receptive" to mobile video ads - a question like that usually understates the actual willingness to watch an ad. [View news story]
I like the fact that the video postings produced are open to the public both amateur and professional. The open nature of the format is truly refreshing. Even the comments posted after the videos occasionally have useful information and links to products and services.
Nvidia (NVDA) +0.6% AH after BSN passes on a very questionable rumor Intel (INTC) is thinking of buying the company and making Nvidia chief Jen-Hsun Huang its next CEO. Antitrust regulators probably wouldn't take kindly to Intel buying the world's #1 GPU vendor. BSN: "This rumor should be taken not with a grain of salt, but rather with a whole 18-wheeler truck filled with the said ingredient." [View news story]
Android Is Dead - Part 2: Titans Clash [View article]
Regarding how consumers will use these appliances in the future... No one knows what to make of them yet. That includes me. I like portability. I like the paperless features and nature of the appliances. Gamers and older folks still like desktops and give away their laptops for tablet and smart phone mobility. Others like me like laptops with a keyboard at home to do real work and just occasionally use tablets as book and news readers. Laptops are bigger, fast, and are more useful for business.
Everyone I know and see in public still uses mostly smart phones. In my opinion this is the platform that will become the most useful to all consumers. It is portable. It will replace credit cards, tickets, paper receipts, photo albums, GPS units and much more. Smart phones will become cheaper. Everyone will have one as a phone and also use it for several of the other uses above if not all.
The government is subsidizing them for the poor and the entitlement crowd. That alone is what will make them ubiquitous. Going forward I believe the features, functionality and quality will all be very close and none will be able to charge a Christian Louboutin cache premium for a consumer commodity. Not even the Apple snobs. Nobody in there right mind will pay more than $200 when they all are alike. It is a friggin phone. A portable electronic appliance. Free content, usefulness, ease of use and $$ COST will drive who sells the most. Financial Transactions fees and paperless activity convenience not advertising will drive revenues from smart phones. Laptops and tablets should and will be interchangeable based on the personal preferences of consumers. I can see a need to synchronize some contain between the two. Those that need processing power to do useful business will continue using Laptops with and without docks. Some will still use desktops because of data security. Web users and book and news readers will use either laptops or tablets at home and smart phones on the road.
Google, Apple, Microsoft will all make money based on the contain they dream up and provide. The profit margins will be dictated to the providers by the consumers. Not the other way around.
The right-to-work bill in Michigan awaiting Governor Snyder's signature won't have any impact on the bottom line of the Big Three anytime soon, but could pull at the thread of the organized labor movement in the state, according to analysts. With the unions able to flex their muscles with the Detroit automakers historically, the question now centers on if future labor negotiations could be influenced, if even just a shade? [View news story]
The right-to-work issue in Michigan isn't going unnoticed by labor unions. UAW President Bob King was at the state's Capitol building leading a protest against legislation that would allows workers to opt out of unions and not pay dues. The state House passed the measure yesterday by 58-42, sending it along to the Senate. Though the Big Three are deathly quiet on the issue, it wouldn't be a stretch to imagine weakened union laws in Michigan could help bottom lines. [View news story]
Google+ (GOOG) now has 135M monthly active users, up from 100M in September, says division chief Vic Gundotra. Moreover, 235M people are using Google+ features such as the +1 button and Hangouts. But no details are given on user engagement, which from all signs is significantly below that shown by Facebook's (FB) 1B+ MAUs. In June, Google+ users were reported to be spending a mere 12 minutes/month on the service; comScore recently estimated Facebook's U.S. users averaged 517 minutes/month. [View news story]
Google is not just search or advertising. It is a valuable gateway to information sources for almost any subject on earth. What is Facebook? It is a place the police and the government go to see who you are and what you have been doing just like my comment on this site.
I am long Google and happy about its current business model.
For whom H-P's (HPQ) FQ4 results toll: Dell (DELL) -1.9% premarket, Intel (INTC) -1.6%, AMD -1%. H-P reported a 14% Y/Y drop in PC revenue and 12% drops in both desktop and notebook shipments. The drop in commercial PC revenue (13%) was nearly as bad as the drop in consumer PC revenue (16%). [View news story]
Intel's Dividend Safe, Even If It Seems Too Good To Be True [View article]
Last time I looked IBM, DELL, HP, Network appliance, EMC, Google, and any other companies in the business of information storage and delivery are planning to replace or even reduce their data storage and delivery methods because of tablets and smart phones.
I am a buyer of INTC ever time it goes below $20 at least until something better comes along to replace server processors.
Ford (F) plans to build its new Transit Connect Wagon in Spain due to a lack of manufacturing capacity in North America. The decision appears to be based on simple math. According to Ford VP Jim Tetreault, the automaker is already operating at 114% in North America. [View news story]
Stockholders cannot make any other comment or decision without more information on the numbers behind the decision. Then again Europe is not much better. Ford would be crazy to build a plant in Turkey with the political unrest in that region.
Still long Ford, but am watching the position closely.
Google's (GOOG) iOS search app has been updated to bear a much closer resemblance to Google Now, which was released earlier this year for Android. Many reviewers have declared Google Now, whose "cards" push personalized and location-specific information to users, to be superior to Apple's (AAPL) Siri. Yesterday, it received an Android update featuring new cards and voice commands. The more iOS users rely on Google's app for searches instead of mobile Safari, the less Google has to pay Apple in traffic acquisition costs. [View news story]
Apple is a great company with good products. Eventually competition will move the industry to a cheaper product with feature as good if not better than Apple. You can boycott other products all you want. All that you'll give is a chance to pay higher prices for fewer features. This is already starting to happen. Apple's 5s iphone is bigger than the 4s. Why is that? Could it be that the bigger Droids had more appeal?
Ford Remains A Buy On Decisive European Restructuring [View article]
America must come up with a practical energy policy and a reduced tax structure to attract European capital and manufacturing before this house of cards falls. America needs better leadership to make that happen before the S--t hits the fan all over the world and we all go under.
This should be a lesson to America. Socialism fails wherever it is tried. Because it takes generations to fail no one remembers history and it repeats.
Intel Now A Buy - Historically Oversold Relative To Trading Range [View article]
Another thought is that you can do OK if you buy INTC when its yield is 4% and sell it when the yield drops to 2% and you have a better place to put the cash. In this market sitting in INTC at 4% yield is better than cash at money market rates.
Where was this story 50% ago? Its cover showing a tombstone engraved "R.I.P. PC," Barron's says DELL and H-P (HPQ) will fade from view. Next up for trouble could be Microsoft (MSFT), seemingly cheap at 9X 2013 earnings, but which reported sales at its Windows unit off by a third Y/Y after backing out pre-sales for Windows 8. The world awaits the launch of Surface at midnight on Friday. More winners/losers here. [View news story]
In this decade it's the growth and use of Cloud technology, current very powerful and reliable processors allow the development of virtual OS and application technology (Cloud), the need for massive real time storage requirements for instant access of information. The changes still to come in networking and information delivery speeds. How consumers are using electronics to enhance their life styles. Desktop PCs, Laptop PCs, smart phones, normal size tablets, smaller sized tablets, flat paneled TVs, smart TVs. It is all changing at lightening speed. Our kids think this has always existed and is inventing new ways to use it.
What's the big deal? The Barrons article is looking at this and selling a paper that is reporting current trends. They are saying the trend is away from some companies and in favor of others. That is what they are all about. While I agree with this conclusion I disagree that these down arrow companies will disappear. I do agree with Barrons current picks for the companies with up arrows. While they are in the best positions to take advantage of the current technology trends the other companies have managements the can see what their competition is going and have lots of free cash flow for M&A. They are not going to stand by and let the competition eat their lunch.
As long as the government does interfere with free market competition we will have a chance to make money.