SeekingTruth

The Must-Know Truth About Stocks and the USD

A different twist, but with a little soak time it made sense. Thanks

Options Trader Tuesday Outlook: Big Data Day

Brilliant covering of the arcane, the profane , but never the mundane!
Easy to understand the reason for your huge following, Phil, and why you have become a must read on my daily agenda.
Please accept my complete appreciation.

15 Indicators We're Watching Now

Fine selection of indicator charts. Thanks.

Now if we only had a chart showing us the high frequency trades pump and dump and dark pool effects on the market it might tell us more of what the big guys are up to.
This has got to be a huge factor in day to day transactions and a effective license to steal, and why the small investor has lost any faith at all in the honesty of the stock markets, among many other things.
Nonetheless, a good family of charts that tells a lot about the current internal strength of the NYSE.

Testing the Performance of Price-to-Book Value

Yes, low price to book could outperform the market, but so could other ratios like:
low price to free cash flow , high return on invested capital, low enterprise to ebitda ratios , etc.
How does low price to book compare to the larger family of ratios that it is a part of?
Without this knowledge , you could be winning some but still playing in the second division.

The Dow at 4000? Don't Laugh, It Could Easily Happen

Jim P. Smith said it far more diplomatically before I could get here, but I was going to say that you are clearly not a student of stock market history and debt history of our country relative to political parties in charge both with and without lag time and effects being considered.

ALL spending to this point can be laid on the brow of GWB and the lack of regulations, incompetent Dept. agency heads of dubious character throughout his administration, and the crooked private and public institutions that he and they mutually supported.
Where is Christopher Cox hiding these days?
Selective ? NO - properly inclusive - YES.

Other than that, liked your interesting article and your writing style very much.

Market Volume: Still an Unanswered Question

To David Van K :
I gave you a thumbs up for your response to my response, and my answer is more complicated than I can describe here, however,
Some reasons for my own particular methods are that I am paying the freight for sending my grandchildren thru college and so I anticipate their needs and take profits to assure that they can stay in school , also, I am helping members of my family impacted by the recession ,etc. (one graduate so far).
I have a tendency to reduce risk for these and other reasons and also when things don't look or smell right to me, and this helped me to avoid the 73-74, 82, 87, and 08 set backs and so I didn't lose my willingness to invest after they occurred.
For example, I sold in Aug. 2007 in order to meet all "extra" needs , like education,assistance, etc. for the next two years even though the market held up for a while longer. My macro economic studies/recession-watch convinced me it was due for a correction even without the derivatives mess and financial meltdown.
I didn't take the chance on being distracted (emergency or death in the family, etc. or for any other reason occurring like my own or broker computer problems or whatever.)
Another reason is that I don't want to sit in front of a computer monitor all day even though this can be and is alleviated a number of ways with trailing stops, options, ,etc. which I do use to help this problem.

That said , I do have some fairly good technical and moving average sliding scale methods and metrics that are adjusted to account for a variety of changing conditions for every sector and category invested in, and I fiddle with them continuously as I learn more about the markets and the economy as they (and I) change.
This includes fiscal/monetary policy, and conditions like the anticipated "mark to market" suspension that occurred March 31, etc.
For awhile these factors have kept me almost entirely in foreign markets, and the anticipated downward pressure on the dollar, and the relative uncertainty of the American economy and debt/monetary prospects are mainly the reasons why.
So even though the domestic market is currently rising with a falling dollar (this might change suddenly), I nonetheless receive more dollars back when I do sell foreign holdings, at least for now, and protect somewhat against that possible "sudden change" in market dollar sentiment.
I try to diversify across the value/volatility scale considering and favoring the highest risk- adjusted returns first and do per centage allocations accordingly as best I can using the pyramid scheme most of the time i.e.(highest risk receives lowest per centage allocated "generally").
I violate this if I think the reward is probably there and justifies the extra risk, but this , of course , requires extra vigilence when done.
So far it has worked well overall and I endeavor to keep learning something new every day.
Your comments were and are greatly appreciated and I am putting you on my follow list as you have much to offer and consider. Thanks for your interest.

Market Volume: Still an Unanswered Question

David Van K:
For S&P 500 would have used reasonably "tight" as 7% And 200 SMA touched or breached because many use 8% now and so would have probably avoided a spike down.
In different times would have used 8% also and a time lag on the 200 SMA depending on conditions, and needs for cash on a forward basis.
As it turned out , I was not stopped out either as all my funds are invested in foreign markets that did not breach both targets, except for one domestic hybrid fund which stayed well above both sell targets (PRPFX). I have however taken some profits at points above 40% gain during the run up, and will take some more and protect what remains in, with no sell targets used or needed.

Also thought then than Alcoa coming in with better than expected earnings was overplayed by the general market., and so would have gotten out or used protection if I had any at risk in the broad domestic market. Of course investors still loved it well after that time and it has paid off well for you folks , congratulations.
I am forced to take comfort in my Intl. holdings with higher than domestic returns, but which of course due to higher than previous correlations and very strong performance are also vulnerable, hence , some more profit taking without sell signals.

Market Volume: Still an Unanswered Question

untrusting: thanks for the link to Hussman's article on volume. It confirms my intuitive grasp of bull - bear past markets combined with the actual hard core volume analysis I have done over the years. See Richard Shaw's past article's on volume also.
Reasonably tight stops would have taken most cautious and rational investor's out of the market during the June - July slide as it did the highly experienced and market savy Art Cashin.
To stay fully in meant that one had the ability to take high risk based on either faith alone or some other group of metrics that I am not aware of. So it looks like to me that the modern era market investing is based more on faith and a lucky guessing game than on fundamentals or anything else that the investor can hang his hat on.
Trend lines and moving averages, and many other technical indicators help a little , but they will stop you out and/or whip saw you if one has a reasonably strict discipline.
This suggests either a "faith or trade" choice for most market participants. No wonder volume is low.

This makes it more like Las Vegas than ever before , and we all know that there the house is allowed to win their share legally i.e. steal their share all fair and square.
And there their motto is "keep the faith baby".

Global Markets in Review: Share Prices Too Far Ahead of Economic Reality

We have gone just about as far as the
" Mark to My Magic Marker"
and sugar coated cocaine laced stimulus high can take us WITHOUT more of the same fare injected into the veins of what serves as our economic and financial systems.
It would "help" some but by no means as much as in March.

Basically have agreed with Roubini all along on domestic issues , and with some others Internationally which have told a far different story at least up until now.
Not a bad time to take some profits and/or acquire some insurance in both arenas as it is becoming easier to recognize and assess the unsustainable every day.

Options Trader Friday Outlook: Is Goldman Sachs Stupid, Or Evil?

One of the better overall perspectives that I have read in a long time.

Energy Watch: Solve for California

If your suggested system is to be expedited as you suggest, then a requirement that 80% (not 100%) of the equipment etc. should be built in California, or it will take too long to implement.

Otherwise the only rail system will be the Unirail in Disneyland which I once saw hanging upside down from its single track.
I have always thought that the state is too large and should be split into two states.

Like some others, I am glad that I left there at an early age and returned South even though the work in the aerospace industry was very interesting, and I liked my co workers and most of the people that I met. Can't say that about some other places.

Overall a good plan and much better than doing nothing.

The Slippery Truth About Oil Price

The Saudi's have done a self serving brilliant job in keeping oil in their preferred price range of $75 to $80. Now that's power baby!

We in America are still too distracted with our own home grown and practiced ideology and political fights to make any where near enough progress with a non existent energy policy, and we desperately need an energy policy.
That means that our future is basically in their (OPEC) hands , and not our own , except to the extent that we can make things even worse than they are if we fail to act which is well past due.

If we take the "conservative" position of not fixing anything if it ain't broke (even though it is surely about to break), and wait until it fully breaks like our bridges , dams , and dikes, and financial system, it will be far too late to avoid the massive privation and suffering that is quickly becoming baked into our national cake, and we shall surely be forced to eat our own cooking.

Better that we plan , prepare, initiate, and implement an energy policy even if it earns the scorned term of "liberal progressives" by the right wing.
If we fail to do this , the price we pay (and are paying) wil be 100's of times greater than more intelligent action would cost.
If you don't believe me , just ask TVA and Lehman Bros.

Fed Sends Gold Higher, But What Is It Good For?

If we are all driven back to the stone age, what will be worth having to survive?
A mule, a plow , land - some cleared, some forested, a well , a wind mill, tools, a wood/coal burning stove, some solar assist if you can afford it now, weapons, farm animals, sewing machine etc. etc., and all the other safety and security items that you can muster.
After you obtain and secure all these things, buy
some gold, or at least accumulate concurrently while you are obtaining both.

Options Trader Thursday Outlook: CRE Data Day

Watched the Republican questioning Tim Geithner badger Tim about Bill Clinton signing Glass Steagall Repeal.
The Repeal was TOTALLY VETO PROOF led by the Republicans.
It was foolish of Tim not to use this opportunity to remind the viewing public of this fact and instead allow the huge public misperception to persist.
Good article and reco's and I agree completely with your ambivalence in this market, it is well warranted.

Why You Can't Short This Market: The Expectation Ratio

While I agreed with this article "overall", I think readers should go back and read the author's article: "Risk/Reward in a Bear:" to put his current info in a more balanced framework and perspective.