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  • 2015 And Historical Bear Market Triggers [View article]
    Very strange that if 2008 Recession was so obvious from Treasury yield spread indicator that it took the NBER until Dec.1,2008 to announce that the recession actually began in Dec. 2007, a FULL YEAR earlier!!
    I remember the economic feel and psychological essence of the period very well, and was amazed that there was no talk or data that stated explicitly that we were in recession, but I believed that we were and stated so to my friends regularly.
    In reality, there was a political gag order out that prevented the popular press and media from even hinting that we were in recession, and the NBER obediently followed suit.
    Even when the recession was officially declared in Dec. 2008, the administration would try hard not to speak of it directly, but only in muted tangential terms, something I also remember very well.
    As a side note, the 2001/2 recession was mainly caused by the stock market dot-com bust, and reinforced by the 9/11 event.
    Be careful when waiting around for official info or help from a politically controlled media and institutions, or even single indicators when the collective reality should be obvious to keen observers.

    Once again Congratulations and kudos to the banks for their hugely profitable and successful currency and interest rate "trading" (stocks too).
    Their legal expertise was super sharp also, after all they had plenty of money for it.
    And best of all, they get to spend most of the money as completely free men, and keep on doing what they've been doing , only more carefully to be sure.
    It's a great justice system we have, worth fighting for - doncha think?
    May 21, 2015. 10:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Side Of The Current S&P 500 Valuation [View article]
    The heavy stock buy-back programs really complicate all forms of stock analysis.
    It's almost too much to deal with.
    It's more understandable with some cash rich firms like Apple, but with many others it looks like attempted management CYA that will probably back-fire on them and their investors.
    I understand Adam Zingg's claim about the "true" payout ratio being 100%, but this does not seem to tell the whole story either because whether it is considered good, bad, or alarming depends on the other company metrics under the microscope.
    Indicates that there are big holes in any approach taken, and that nothing succeeds like inside information does.
    PS: Congratulations and kudos to the banks for their fine legal expertise in dealing with their brilliant and rewarding currency (and interest rate) trading.
    Their continued success assures the rest of us that all academic approaches are just that: purely academic.
    Still, we must learn all we can just in case things change enough to make it all more relevant again.
    Thanks for all the info and good efforts made in this regard.
    May 20, 2015. 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakouts Or Fakeouts? [View article]
    Re:DKA108> Well stated! Thanks.
    May 20, 2015. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakouts Or Fakeouts? [View article]
    I consider many of the standard technical patterns as interesting but indeterminate beyond one or a few days at most.
    The higher lows against horizontal highs with many tops (rising wedge) just tells me the current climate is improving a little (constructive), but this pattern is a very weak positive, and fails too often to be of much use. Still, it is worth observing and considering if one doesn't put too much weight on it.
    I can't tell you how many times a cup and handle has been formed on Gold and many stocks before breaking down soon after the cup & handle signal gave a "go ahead". I call this a "cup with broken handle". The "broken handles" are almost never mentioned, but the ones that work (unbroken) are really bally-hooed, like "see there- it really works!"
    When looking to buy, first thing I do is find out if the investment is fundamentally sound using my own criteria, and only then do I look at the patterns mentioned in the article, among many others.
    When looking to buy or sell options, the situation is a little different, as either side of the fundamentals can be played in combination, but a lot of the criteria still applies. In other words, there it doesn't matter if the fundamentals are sound or not as both good and bad can be used to advantage.
    Thanks for the good article.
    May 19, 2015. 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook - Will The Breakout To New Highs Stick This Time? [View article]
    We are no longer in an investor's market, but now in a gambler's market.
    Compulsive gamblers will not stop gambling until they are totally broke and can't borrow any more money.
    Margin calls will eventually damage this market beyond quick repair.
    Meanwhile the "Big Casino in the Sky" rolls on, so the author's position is as good and reasonable as anyone else's and he does a good overall job expressing it.

    The huge disconnect between the stock market and the "real" economy could be resolved this year, but that's just my thoughts and they are no better than yours, but they do direct me on how to risk my own money.
    May 18, 2015. 01:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Scenario For Stocks [View article]
    No doubt in my mind that SP500 could run up another 200 points or so this year.
    Problem is, the risk at those valuations are enormous.
    One bad event or idiotic action and it could be down much more than 200 points also.
    So it comes down to one's own risk/reward profile.
    Can't see adding to investments without strong hedging and that's expensive.

    Keep your best selections, and evaluate than often, but don't try to play this market with the bizarre set of circumstances we now find ourselves in, as that could be even more expensive.
    May 14, 2015. 06:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Have Become A Lot More Complicated On Wall Street [View article]
    Excellent overall article about which I have many thoughts, but will only relate to Gold this time.
    You will notice that the Gold price peaked at about the time we started winding down major operations in Iraq, if memory serves.
    More money can be printed and stolen in a war than any other way, and this proves to be very positive for Gold.
    Financial and political chicanery also do a good job as well. We had an abundance of all from 2001 forward.
    When those two things rear their ugly heads again in such great force then Gold will make another run.
    One can well estimate what it would take and when those could reemerge once again.
    In the meantime, continued stagnation will not serve Gold well.
    May 1, 2015. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Items Distorting The Balance Sheets Of Prominent Companies [View article]
    Overall, very impressive work.
    Apple was treated somewhat lightly however.
    After subtracting WACC from ROIC, and making your adjustments, what is the net ROIC that you consider good and better than merely good?
    I know it varies with the industry and point in growth cycle, just asking for some of your guidelines.
    May 1, 2015. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No GDP Growth In Q1? [View article]
    Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP = an official recession.
    Watch them "seasonally adjust" their way out of it - should it actually occur.
    Apr 28, 2015. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Technical Tuesday: 2,100 Still The Line To Beat On The S&P [View article]
    Phil, You've nailed it once again.
    How often now do you see interesting, controvertial subjects and people discussing important issues in a way that is not popular with the corporate news controllers? Rarely!
    If allowed at all, they quarantine them up in the nosebleed area of the channel listings , and at a time when the mass of viewers are least likely to see them.
    Did get to see Daniel Ellsberg this weekend, and how he managed to get on, I don't know, a rare occurrence, but he did an excellent interview while relating his past experiences with current affairs.
    They shut down Keith Olbermann completely except for sports, and Jesse V. retired to the Baja. I miss their candor and courage speaking truth to power (unhealthy in this country).
    The power brokers are in a sweat trying to get that volume up on up days , so far , hasn't been working very well.
    Getting harder to peddle the junk at ever higher prices, but I'm sure they will think of something.
    Apr 28, 2015. 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Manipulation Takes Center Stage [View article]
    Phil, We and many others have known this for years, that it's a Skim, Scalp, and Scam operation (SSS) by many players, and the officials make sure they don't catch them in the required numbers , and the few that they do catch take years to accomplish.
    How did this guy slip thru the crack and get caught?
    He must have made the wrong guys mad , or he wouldn't have been caught either. Martha Stewart donated to the wrong party, and that's all it took for her relatively minor transgression.
    As many of us have stated before, if they applied the Martha Stewart standard to the entire industry, how many of them would be in jail?
    They'd have to shut down the entire industry!
    Apr 22, 2015. 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Equity And Economic Review For The Week; False Break-Out Edition [View article]
    Stagnation lubricated with financial snake oil retains it's smelly and harsh grip, resulting in more wealth for the wealthy, more poverty for the poor, and confusion and frustration for all but the insiders and power elite.
    Rigging and racketeering win the day, every day.
    We let it happen, and as long as we continue to do so, it will stay that way.
    It will not fix itself - guaranteed.
    Apr 21, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Developments In Foreign Stock Markets Are Hard To Ignore [View article]
    I agree, also, this is one of those cases where a highly competent mutual fund manager can make a difference, esp. those large enough to have overseas offices and contacts that can assist them in their searches and analysis.
    It (foreign) is one of the few places I use mutual fund's instead of ETF's and individual stocks, but if you've got a country or region (ETF) or stock that you really like then that's different.
    Apr 21, 2015. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Fed Caused An Economic Slowdown? [View article]
    Author: You are correct in that the FED does not steer the "economy".

    It DOES steer the Stock Market.

    It operates to serve , protect, and further enrich the power brokers in this country.
    It does not serve the majority of Americans in any meaningful constructive and positive way.
    It should be audited (with teeth) , reformed substantially, and/or banned.
    Apr 19, 2015. 01:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Exposure To Small-Value Stocks [View article]
    Nice article. Thanks.
    Apr 15, 2015. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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