SeekingTruth

EFA: Diversify Your Portfolio Outside the U.S.

A few international mutual funds outperformed EFA over the past five years, like Harbor Intl. for one.
However, the MF's do not offer the intra day trading opportunities, or the tax advantages that EFA offers.
Also . the "EFU" ETF (short) allows the investor to short against the box when things get shaky, or if the investor feels the need to be market neutral for some time period.
Of course , EFU can be employed to hedge against a held Intl. MF as well, among other strategies.
Thanks for the refreshing update on EFA.

Today's Employment Report: Focus on the Long Term Trends

Fine analysis and info. Thanks for the hard data.
This dovetails nicely with my comment for Felix Salmon's article "10.2%"

10.2%

To wit:
"Unemployment is a lagging indicator."
Lagging relative to what?
Anyone that has reviewed the indicator relative to historical stock market rebound advances would have to agree that it largely lags (hope is in the air, la la da dee dee dee da).
Relative to other things, the picture is not so clear.
Considering the financial hardships imposed on millions of Americans that will doubtless negatively impact them for the rest of their lives, it may very well be a leading indicator.

The loss of trust and faith in large segments of our failed business models kept afloat by a confused and reluctant tax paying citizenry may also find some predictive guidance in the unemployment entity as an economic and social leading indicator.
So, if you take a purely Wall Street view, the indicator can be generally be accepted as to lag, but taking many other , perhaps , more important human impact conditions into account, it leads, but much more subtlely so (unless you are among those directly impacted, then lead/lag is virtually meaningless).
Good to consider all aspects.

Where to Invest for the next ten years

Peter,
Aside from my prior comment, I completely agree with your position on bonds in the current environment.
Thanks for the good and useful article.

Where to Invest for the next ten years

You quite correctly highlighted the lag effect that will surely impact our grandchildren, and even before them , us also.
Lag effects, such as the enormous cost and inflation aftermath of the Vietnam War, and
outrageous and profligate misadventures of the Nixon administration and their business allies, like wage controls without price controls ; and
usurious, profligate , virtually unsecured loans to S. America by our major banks - that badly backfired; and
major price gouging, and prior debilitating oil embargoes etc. are seldom mentioned when the stated high interest rates during the Carter admin. are noted.
To fully appreciate Lag effects, folks might do well to avail themselves of the 10 years of history prior to the Carter admin, before casually mentioning interest rates (or inflation) as a single data point in an article.
PS: Admired your work on Free Cash Flow that you shared with us. Many Thanks.

Policy Lessons from the Great Depression

This article:
Of the Power Elitist, By the Power Elitist, For the Power Elitist, with a little Hessian preaching to his choir thrown in for flavor.
If you are in that group, you will love this piece.
If you are on the fence, you will either stay there or be pushed to the other side.
With a little luck, you could get this published in the WSJ and maybe reviewed on FOX, they'll love it too.
PS: Hoover was not as bad as portrayed by history, and he didn't have the advantage of historical hindsight to help him. He also had a lot of less than astute advice, same as "W".

This Week's Recap: Goldman's Sucker Punch

Good, timely and relevant data and info.

Proves once again that any data without analysis can be very misleading and deadly.
While a bear overall , I would genuinely like for someone to provide a list of true "improvements" in order to balance my bearish tendencies.
Where are the plans , the resources , and more importantly, the action to create a new improved environment for American workers and the middle class, and indeed, a better America for all (and not just the big 3)?
I have been looking for myself and can't find any.

Copper's View of the Recovery: No Real Growth This Year

When I was having some repair work done several months ago, my plumber said that he had stripped all the copper out of his house and replaced it with PEX for the its anti-freeze damage qualities.
Don't know if that means much, but if I were building a new house again, with cost analysis ,etc. I would definitely consider PEX instead of copper, but based on analysis of course.

Revival of the Petrodollar Recycling Machine

EUARTE: I have no doubt that you are correct, which means that the envoys are "double dippers" , being bought off by both sides of the trade.

The Saudi Royal Family are the true rulers of the world. Frontline proved this to my satisfaction.

California: Entering Inflationary Depression

A penchant for B grade movie actors injected into positions of great responsibilities both by a state and nationally may not lead to the eventual improvements that some seem to have expected.
Of course its a lot more complicated than this , but it all adds up , doesn't it?
Some well written and lucid comments stated here, but I suspect there are some even better ones lurking out there.

The Relationship Between VIX Spikes and Short-Term Opportunities

Bill, Further review of the included chart suggests that keen analysis of what caused the VIX spike is indispensable, i.e. Recessions and true banking crises "analysis" are vital to success when using the VIX in a predictive long term fashion (short term not so critical as you well noted).
All your caveats and warnings are well stated and well received by this reader. Thanks.

The Relationship Between VIX Spikes and Short-Term Opportunities

Bill, you are doing a great job of wringing out every last vestige of info that can be gained by VIX and VXX analysis, etc.
Knowing that the VIX is negatively correlated to the S&P 500 is one thing , but gaining some predictive advantage is even better.
Thanks again for your continuing fine work, and I am slowly but surely getting more out of it with increased familiarity, and I still have a great deal more to learn about what you have already published..
I look forward to all future articles.

Nouriel Roubini Agrees with Jeff Gundlach

This is all like watching three movies at the same time:
One movie is a documentary narrated by Nouriel Roubini, and the other two "The Wizard of OZ", and "Alice in Wonderland", are produced and narrated by the The US Government, and Wall Street respectively.
So one is for probabilities based on facts, and the other two are for short term entertainment, and they enjoy the larger audience, but I suspect we all will not be amused or laughing for a great deal longer.

Revival of the Petrodollar Recycling Machine

Another clue as to why we have no energy policy (even after 35+ years to develop one), and probably why we will never get one when this is added to a lot of other things.
We the people continue to be dragged behind the pickup truck driven by the powers that be that find it all too easy to siphon off their large "management fees" and stealth money laundering advantages.
If anyone has any suggestions, please speak up, because things are getting really depressing.

This Week's Oil Guesses Off the Mark

Brad, Great charts and discussion.
Interesting that Gasoline "Stocks" UP 1.7 million barrels at the same time average daily Gasoline "Demand" at 1.9 million barrels, UP 1.9% from same period last year.
This suggests to me that the refiners did not let us down relative to actual demand, currently at least. Perhaps they were preparing for seasonal effects including partial shutdowns well ahead of time. You and others know this far better than I.
Seasonal factors and inventories make your suggested ETF crack trade look more and more feasible (if I interpreted it correctly).