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  • U.S. Stocks: Oh Behave! [View article]
    About as well balanced a view as one can get. Thanks.
    In the recent past, it has taken some "scare" , like Ukraine, Ebola, or something similar to roil the markets, and I expect that to continue for awhile before a general downtrend sets in.
    Note that it has to be life threatening, as any form of corruption exposed won't do the job for more than a few days at most, if at all.
    Right now , the new growing scare is fighting in/around Yemen, and we'll have to see where that takes us.
    Maybe a weak first quarter GDP and weak earnings guidance could keep things soft and the enthusiasm muted also.
    I still expect rallies to be fairly short and the give backs to be substantial until the forward picture brightens.
    Thanks again for a fine series of articles and expert insights.
    Mar 27, 2015. 05:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Is Better: Cap-Weighting Or Equal-Weighting? [View article]
    This article goes a long way toward resolving the issue and is pretty much what I expected based on my less rigorous observations.
    In a way, the results make the most sense, as smaller companies in a solid broad index should experience the most growth in the majority of situations, while in Energy , the larger well established integrated companies tend to do better and struggle less than the smaller less capitalized ones.
    Very well done , and I appreciate this fine contribution to the readership.
    Mar 27, 2015. 05:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Trend Analysis By Comparing Equal Weight To Market Weight Indexes [View article]
    I'm a long term fan of breadth observance also, and this article helps illuminate the subject even more. Thanks.
    This treatment reminds me of the situation where a person says:
    "I may look just fine, but I'm not feeling all that well."

    When added to price/volume/moneyflow... etc., the breadth domain can add some powerful insight into just how much energy is supporting the general trend, and I look at and consider them all.
    Thanks again for another excellent article in your long list of same.
    PS: I'm also a fan of that 5 DEMA and 5 DROC also, among a large family of MA's that I use.
    Mar 27, 2015. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Use Your Illusion I: Summary And Conclusions For Prospects On S&P Sales Growth [View article]
    You've demonstrated that you have a great handle on the Price to Sales issue, and I thank you for sharing it with us in such a well developed and well presented manner.
    I am sure that a lot of highly informed people representing the Institutions and major wealth holders are in the market long and apparently intend to stay that way. They are supported by the momentum players and the investors unfamiliar with stock fundamentals and market dynamics.
    When I look at the fundamentals and risks of buying new stocks at these price levels I get a chill and refrain from doing so, although I do hold core positions domestically and internationally.
    The power of the institutions, the momentum players, and the unfamiliar make shorting the market just as risky in my view.
    I do think that certain buys after strong sell offs coupled with option sell premiums could make some sense depending on the circumstances.
    Otherwise , I will continue to sit this one out for the reasons stated in your article as well as a number of other things I am watching.
    A superb series of articles and I thank you greatly.
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Relative Risk Adjusted Return For Retirees And Those Who Prefer A Smoother Ride [View article]
    Richard, Did you use the Morningstar version of Sortino Ratio, or a different version? Details would be useful. Thanks.
    Mar 21, 2015. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Relative Risk Adjusted Return For Retirees And Those Who Prefer A Smoother Ride [View article]
    Richard, This is the kind of solid and well selected work that we have grown to depend on you for.
    Thanks again for your fine insights and efforts.
    Mar 21, 2015. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Market Seasonality May Be Critical In 2015 [View article]
    Look at those 3 declining highs and 4 declining lows in May of 2011.
    A Technician's dream for exiting a toppy market.
    Heading down in the second dip was all I needed when combined with the market internals and other signals. Could have phased out in 3 steps if desired.
    It's rarely as easy as it was then.
    Aug. and Sept. also gave the usual weak seasonal results, and Oct. was a little early on the year end rally as a result in an "enough already!" fashion.
    All in all a crazy stock market year , but also one that could be read if observant and careful.
    Mar 20, 2015. 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Trade That's Money In The Bank [View article]
    Hopium and Greed retake the Lead
    While Fear retreats to the Rear

    The power brokers have a massive incentive to exceed that Nasdaq record high as much as it can be done in order to make the massive profits and to symbolically make a statement of virtual omnipotence in the financial world.
    The FED has got their back and can be counted on to do their part in a totally loyal way as they have in the past.
    The Big Casino in the Sky rolls on and where it stops nobody (almost) knows.
    It will be interesting to see how many can jump out of the rumble seat in time.
    Mar 20, 2015. 05:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet The Worst Economic Forecasters Ever - The Fed [View article]
    A fine overall assessment, and you are correct that the FED cannot express the whole truth or reality.
    The FED is a major part of the problem, combined with our boom- bust economic and political system.
    We have to make a start for improvement somewhere, and the FED is one of those places.
    The FED should be audited (with teeth), and then reformed, or banned and replaced with a superior system.
    Our entire political system needs just as much improvement , but can't be improved either.
    What you see is what you get.
    Just make sure that you always take time to look.
    Thanks again for your insights and efforts.
    Mar 20, 2015. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation Not A Concern For The Fed [View article]
    Nice update on inflation. Thanks.
    We have been at Crestflation for many years which means that inflation could be at zero level or negative and prices are still too high for all but the most wealthy.
    Affordability must be discussed whenever inflation is discussed.
    "Crestflation" is a term I invented long ago to describe that prices are already as much or more than consumers can bear without even greater and damaging results.
    This puts a lid on inflation, but that lid can be blown off in certain circumstances.
    We are in a situation where the well off and wealthy will do just fine thank you , and the poor will continue to suffer.
    Status quo I believe this is called.
    Mar 20, 2015. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Sings A Bohemian Rhapsody [View article]
    Supporting this view is that the May 2014 high of the NYA has been touched or penetrated to the downside 7 times since then ,and even today , we are in that same vicinity.
    In other words, relative to the broad market , one could have kept their money in their pockets, and done just as well for the last 10 months, while avoiding a great deal of risk.
    Individual stocks, if you are skilled enough to select them are a different story as you noted.
    You are on the right track. Thanks.
    Mar 17, 2015. 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook - Between A Rock And A Hard Place [View article]
    We were short term oversold last Friday.
    The last 2 hours Friday and "The Week-End Effect" did the rest to assure the rally today.
    The NYA is still in a rising wedge pattern which suggests a potential breakdown, or a sideways pull. Either way, it has become a day trader's game.
    No progress in penetrating the NYA high from last July has been made, but anyone playing the swings with skill and guts (those both good "and" lucky) has done OK.
    I'm sure I'm talking about most of the people out there, right?
    Good work on the article. Thanks.
    Mar 16, 2015. 10:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Staples Stock Valuation Update 3-13-15 [View instapost]
    Nice info and tables. Thanks, and for correcting the misquoted dividends for INGR.
    A 20% sell off would make some in this group worth considering.
    Mar 14, 2015. 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Why The Stock Market Is Tumbling [View article]
    I went on "Sell Watch" on Feb. 25 with confirmation on Mar. 4 which means sell your weakest stocks and be prepared to sell more if deterioration continues, based on your needs and risk tolerance of course.
    On those days, the market earned my vote of "No Confidence" in a technical sense which joined my already "No Confidence " in a Fundamental sense.
    Today, at this hour,the market has stabilized a little, but it still rates my vote of "No Confidence" overall.
    All the things you mentioned in the article are factors for sure, but what I practice is the markets reaction to the sum total of it all, and anyone watching just price action alone is guaranteed to be behind the curve in most instances.
    That said , we must always be ready for power broker insiders getting advance info of upcoming positive (or negative) news like the Ukrainian ceasefire which they got on Feb.2. and led to a sudden change and a strong one month advance.
    We usually can't anticipate those things , but we can observe it unfolding in advance of headline news.
    Thanks again for your fine series of articles.
    Mar 11, 2015. 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Vulnerable Is The Stock Market? [View article]
    Great Swami:
    Well no, at least not entirely.
    The insiders have to get the Info "first" before they can act on it.
    The point is the general public does not get the important relevant info until later.
    Sometimes the action taken is within seconds and sometimes they wait for the most profitable "loading up" of price, breadth, and volume action to maximize the intended results.
    Maybe they get this info by "hacking" it, and maybe by leaks (paid for in money, influence, jobs, favorable treatment, etc.).
    Some of them just guess right, and/or have great analysis, and this is what the honest ones do which is fine by me because that's fair.
    The aggregate total of the above is what moves markets, and I'm just saying that too much of it is not completely honest.
    It puts the small investor at much greater risk when the market is overbought/overvalued, not so much if it is undervalued.
    If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, I can live with that because the way I read the action works very well for me.
    Thanks for the nicely worded question and the interest.
    Mar 10, 2015. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment