The FED rigs the bond/credit markets. LIBOR is rigged in London. Insiders, institutions, banksters and politicians rig the stock market which is already heavily influenced by the rigged bond/credit market. Mortgage documents and other documents are rigged by robo-signing and other fraudulent means. Too big to fail and too big to jail is rigged. Judges,politicians, and others, rig the court system from the very top on down.
All important products are rigged, including life saving and health dependent pharmaceuticals, otherwise, we would be permitted to buy them from Canada and elsewhere, and their vast price differentials would be reduced across the land. Even the wine market in my home town is rigged and nobody can do anything about it. I really don't know any corporate level financial endeavor or political action that isn't rigged in some way.
Would someone please enlighten me and point out a few, if they do exist? By rigging, I mean that which is artificially manipulated and controlled for self serving selfish reasons at the disproportionate expense of others who have no "practical means" to intervene and correct the malfeasance.
Because rigging is so pervasive and universal, does this mean that we should just get used to it and ignore it because it is so difficult to resist? NO! We must challenge it at every opportunity. The so-called "wall of worry" is being built on top of a huge mountain of distrust. The distrust is well earned, and its cause and source ultimately leads to a damaged, crippled , and perhaps totally failed system. Far too much is already baked into the cake. We may be able to reduce some of the damage , but it is already too late to avoid some, if not most, of its worst eventual results.
S&P 500 Likely To Correct To 1476 Or Less During 2013 [View article]
Richard, another superb high quality article well presented, including your excellent comments.
We have to look back to 2005 to see a mere 7% decline in up years, since then the downdrafts have been higher. I would expect "at least" a 7% decline, and more like 12 to 15% decline if something moderately nasty happens. In my view, risk is much higher in the modern world (relative to investments) than many people perceive. Takes a lot of fortitude to hang tough in today's environment even with the high rewards. I am doing so with only my highest quality core investments That said, I apparently am "not yet" that bearish enough overall, as I have yet to buy Puts, which tends to express my true inner inclination, or I would have already have bought them. That day will come, probably when the last big short covering rally takes place and they throw in the towel - because they are broke and can't do the same high level of short selling for a while. That should drive the market into sufficient full and/or overvaluation to justify some protection. Till then , I'm just sitting tight.
Philippines Described As A Rising Star By Moody's, Growth Forecast Raised By S&P [View article]
Thanks - worth watching. The people have certainly deserved more than they have received over history, and I am encouraged that they have a chance to turn the corner and rise up out of poverty. Could be another Hong Kong type environment there someday long term if all goes reasonably well.
Low Volatility And Yield Are Outperforming - 5 Top Rated Selections With Both [View article]
Richard, you are always a great and trusted value. There is no limit at the time and effort that can be put into stock research, and one has to break it off somewhere. I always eagerly accept whatever free advice that you are willing to share with us and have absolutely no complaints at whatever level it may happen to be. Just don't get disgusted and stop writing your excellent articles. Thanks as always.
Majority Of Companies Disappoint On Revenue. Should You Rebalance Your ETF Portfolio? [View article]
We always need to look at Top Line (Revenues), Middle line (EBITDA and Net Income), and Bottom Line (Net Discretionary Free Cash Flow) along with all other factors of course. With only a 2.5% GDP which is expected to weaken, Revenues will be under pressure, along with jobs, etc. so , yes , have your buy candidates lined up, your chance will come - guaranteed. But, you will need patience before you buy and AFTER you buy. Another good article, Thanks.
Are Kiplinger's Top 25 Funds Any Better Than A Comparable ETF? Large-Cap Edition (Part 2) [View article]
Mutual Funds are less "Flash Crash" vulnerable. One of the few good things that I can still say about them. I am not totally against them , I'm just very, very picky. Good work, Thanks.
Something's Not Right About This Rally [View article]
Relative to the bull market starting in 2003, we had:
The start of a War economy coupled with massive deficit spending and lowered taxes to make sure we couldn't pay for it all , and to grease the economic wheels, and provide easy fortunes for the undeserving for the next 4 to 5 years. We started paying for it economically in 2008, and are still paying for it in economic health terms. In 2009 , we had the end of Mark to Market, huge bailouts and a ZIRP FED policy leading to the current stock market bubble ,and also with a continuing war economy. Meanwhile, we struggle to maintain a 2.5% GDP, the number of people on food stamps exceed 47 million, and the defeated (no hope) labor pool segment continues to rise, to quickly mention only a very few factors. If anyone cares to notice, large segments of the world continue to unravel at an irregular but inexorable pace like that seldom seen in modern history.
If all this inspires confidence in your investing soul, the best of luck to you, just make sure that the "blood in the streets" is NOT YOUR OWN.
Asset Allocation With A Market-Level Tilt [View article]
Worthy Asset Allocation strategies and info. Thanks. One big question is how the Bernanke Put will play out with all its distortions and implications. The models ignore it, but should we? PS: I read all your references - good work.
Eric, You hit a nerve with this one and you have a fine article as far as it goes (genuine thanks), but one that I find egregiously deficient because it overlooks too much and shows too little imagination, something that is necessary to more fully understand the minds of crooks. Insider information and insider front running is not explored nearly enough, and the power structure all (essentially) do it! One example of this, among countless ones, is the front running on NAFTA and CAFTA legislation. Nobody outside the insiders group understood the regulations in those bills, but if you knew how your own company would benefit because you helped write the rules then you and other insiders could and did benefit immensely by the way that you invested and operated.
The same was true about the countries and the corporations within them that would also disproportionately benefit and they invested in those early also because they knew exactly who and how they would benefit the most. The options and futures markets were prime vehicles for this along with juicing up the prices during times of lulls and low volume. The insiders certainly included our politicians who had early and almost complete access to the incredibly complex details of the new laws.
Incredible fortunes were made based on this inside information alone. Same is true on wars and war profiteering, and on just about anything else one can think of including 9/11. Rigged? That doesn't even begin to explain it! - but many of the commenter's have made an excellent effort. Many thanks to them, and to you, Eric, for stimulating this good and necessary conversation by so many.
Investors Beware: Market Risks Today Are Higher than Ever [View article]
The only way to stop the moral hazards by the Bankster/Ganksters is to break up the TBTF banks and reimpose Glass- Steagal. Good luck with that as long as they are totally protected by the Gerrymandering Oligarch Predators, which looks like forever. What you see is what you get, but what you don't yet see is going to be a great deal worse.
Somewhere, by definition, there is a Bull slaughter house behind every prime steak restaurant. S&P forecasts by the power structure are increasing again. This means that they consider the system still under their control. When you play now , it is like a pilot fish attached to the shark, the rewards may be there but the risks may be higher than you expected.
Is The 'Fed Rage' Unwarranted? [View article]
LIBOR is rigged in London.
Insiders, institutions, banksters and politicians rig the stock market which is already heavily influenced by the rigged bond/credit market.
Mortgage documents and other documents are rigged by robo-signing and other fraudulent means.
Too big to fail and too big to jail is rigged.
Judges,politicians, and others, rig the court system from the very top on down.
All important products are rigged, including life saving and health dependent pharmaceuticals, otherwise, we would be permitted to buy them from Canada and elsewhere, and their vast price differentials would be reduced across the land.
Even the wine market in my home town is rigged and nobody can do anything about it.
I really don't know any corporate level financial endeavor or political action that isn't rigged in some way.
Would someone please enlighten me and point out a few, if they do exist?
By rigging, I mean that which is artificially manipulated and controlled for self serving selfish reasons at the disproportionate expense of others who have no "practical means" to intervene and correct the malfeasance.
Because rigging is so pervasive and universal, does this mean that we should just get used to it and ignore it because it is so difficult to resist?
NO!
We must challenge it at every opportunity.
The so-called "wall of worry" is being built on top of a huge mountain of distrust.
The distrust is well earned, and its cause and source ultimately leads to a damaged, crippled , and perhaps totally failed system.
Far too much is already baked into the cake.
We may be able to reduce some of the damage , but it is already too late to avoid some, if not most, of its worst eventual results.
S&P 500 Likely To Correct To 1476 Or Less During 2013 [View article]
We have to look back to 2005 to see a mere 7% decline in up years, since then the downdrafts have been higher.
I would expect "at least" a 7% decline, and more like 12 to 15% decline if something moderately nasty happens.
In my view, risk is much higher in the modern world (relative to investments) than many people perceive.
Takes a lot of fortitude to hang tough in today's environment even with the high rewards.
I am doing so with only my highest quality core investments
That said, I apparently am "not yet" that bearish enough overall, as I have yet to buy Puts, which tends to express my true inner inclination, or I would have already have bought them.
That day will come, probably when the last big short covering rally takes place and they throw in the towel - because they are broke and can't do the same high level of short selling for a while.
That should drive the market into sufficient full and/or overvaluation to justify some protection.
Till then , I'm just sitting tight.
Philippines Described As A Rising Star By Moody's, Growth Forecast Raised By S&P [View article]
The people have certainly deserved more than they have received over history, and I am encouraged that they have a chance to turn the corner and rise up out of poverty.
Could be another Hong Kong type environment there someday long term if all goes reasonably well.
Low Volatility And Yield Are Outperforming - 5 Top Rated Selections With Both [View article]
There is no limit at the time and effort that can be put into stock research, and one has to break it off somewhere.
I always eagerly accept whatever free advice that you are willing to share with us and have absolutely no complaints at whatever level it may happen to be.
Just don't get disgusted and stop writing your excellent articles.
Thanks as always.
Majority Of Companies Disappoint On Revenue. Should You Rebalance Your ETF Portfolio? [View article]
With only a 2.5% GDP which is expected to weaken, Revenues will be under pressure, along with jobs, etc. so , yes , have your buy candidates lined up, your chance will come - guaranteed.
But, you will need patience before you buy and AFTER you buy.
Another good article, Thanks.
Are Kiplinger's Top 25 Funds Any Better Than A Comparable ETF? Large-Cap Edition (Part 2) [View article]
One of the few good things that I can still say about them.
I am not totally against them , I'm just very, very picky.
Good work, Thanks.
Extreme Overbought Territory [View article]
Three or four well selected charts are better than just one (usually).
Thanks for your consistently good work.
Breakdown ETFs: Go Ahead And Give It To Me [View article]
A very good reminder /refresher with excellent points for all us busy folks. Thanks.
Something's Not Right About This Rally [View article]
The start of a War economy coupled with massive deficit spending and lowered taxes to make sure we couldn't pay for it all , and to grease the economic wheels, and provide easy fortunes for the undeserving for the next 4 to 5 years.
We started paying for it economically in 2008, and are still paying for it in economic health terms.
In 2009 , we had the end of Mark to Market, huge bailouts and a ZIRP FED policy leading to the current stock market bubble ,and also with a continuing war economy.
Meanwhile, we struggle to maintain a 2.5% GDP, the number of people on food stamps exceed 47 million, and the defeated (no hope) labor pool segment continues to rise, to quickly mention only a very few factors.
If anyone cares to notice, large segments of the world continue to unravel at an irregular but inexorable pace like that seldom seen in modern history.
If all this inspires confidence in your investing soul, the best of luck to you, just make sure that the "blood in the streets" is NOT YOUR OWN.
Asset Allocation With A Market-Level Tilt [View article]
One big question is how the Bernanke Put will play out with all its distortions and implications.
The models ignore it, but should we?
PS: I read all your references - good work.
Are The Markets Rigged? [View article]
You hit a nerve with this one and you have a fine article as far as it goes (genuine thanks), but one that I find egregiously deficient because it overlooks too much and shows too little imagination, something that is necessary to more fully understand the minds of crooks.
Insider information and insider front running is not explored nearly enough, and the power structure all (essentially) do it!
One example of this, among countless ones, is the front running on NAFTA and CAFTA legislation.
Nobody outside the insiders group understood the regulations in those bills, but if you knew how your own company would benefit because you helped write the rules then you and other insiders could and did benefit immensely by the way that you invested and operated.
The same was true about the countries and the corporations within them that would also disproportionately benefit and they invested in those early also because they knew exactly who and how they would benefit the most.
The options and futures markets were prime vehicles for this along with juicing up the prices during times of lulls and low volume.
The insiders certainly included our politicians who had early and almost complete access to the incredibly complex details of the new laws.
Incredible fortunes were made based on this inside information alone.
Same is true on wars and war profiteering, and on just about anything else one can think of including 9/11.
Rigged? That doesn't even begin to explain it! - but many of the commenter's have made an excellent effort.
Many thanks to them, and to you, Eric, for stimulating this good and necessary conversation by so many.
Investors Beware: Market Risks Today Are Higher than Ever [View article]
Good luck with that as long as they are totally protected by the Gerrymandering Oligarch Predators, which looks like forever.
What you see is what you get, but what you don't yet see is going to be a great deal worse.
Cyclical P/E 10 Ratios At S&P 500 Peaks Prior To Bear Markets [View article]
Stock Market Russian Roulette [View article]
S&P forecasts by the power structure are increasing again.
This means that they consider the system still under their control.
When you play now , it is like a pilot fish attached to the shark, the rewards may be there but the risks may be higher than you expected.
Most Extended S&P 500 Stocks [View article]