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  • 4 Factor Trend Reversal Indicator Sees A Bear [View article]
    Richard, Would recommend that at least a Recession indicator (or similar) be added to the four parameters.
    I also use same/similar indicators but on shorter time scales.
    I am not afraid to be wrong and exit the market early, but I usually do it on a phased basis depending on the data much the same as you have indicated.
    The table I leave the money on is mine where I can see it , touch it , and spend it or reinvest it as I see fit.
    Thanks for this very useful and interesting article.
    Oct 10, 2015. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small-Cap Stocks Are Sounding The Alarm, Again [View article]
    The duplicity of the FED propaganda (and others) continues to be hard to take, and it never ceases to amaze me the host of people willing to fall for it.
    Well done article, and the weight of the evidence will soon be too great to hide by even the most skilled of the deceivers and deniers.
    Your good work is highly appreciated, Thanks.
    Oct 10, 2015. 02:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Volatility-Based Price Probability Range [View article]
    Richard, That's a most revealing chart, the 12 month rolling ROC of earnings, (in Red).
    This at the same time long term household earnings ROC isn't so great either.
    Thanks for the well selected and timely body of info.
    Oct 1, 2015. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Winners And Losers Since The Bull Market Peak [View article]
    Eric, A good and handy overall review, Thanks.
    Sep 28, 2015. 01:41 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Positive Equity Market Technicals [View article]
    Have to agree that some kind of a pop could occur in next few days.
    But many people buying those new cars and houses are going to be faced with high payments, taxes, and insurance, and while other parts of economy remains under stress.
    This is offset somewhat by the other side (contractors and producers, insurance, etc.) receiving the money of course, but I suspect most of it is "borrowing from the future" (again), and I suspect that cycle has finally caught up with us, - so a "pop" probably, but a sustained rally, I doubt it.
    Sep 27, 2015. 08:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Best Performing S&P 100 Stocks [View article]
    Richard, Health damaging products of companies included in indexes is one of the reasons that I don't like broad indexes that include them.
    It's tough to avoid them for that reason but so far I have succeeded.
    Another thing is the excessive profiteering by some if not most drug companies, who exploit their power with no concern for their customer victims that can't afford to buy the needed drugs because of blocked foreign competition, extended patents that they all lobby for, pay for , and get. etc.
    Alright, they don't have to care, that's up to them, but the rest of us should care and do something about it.
    It seems stupid not to do so just in order to let corporate entities run all over us in the name of "free enterprise", which is a total farce when so many one sided protections and advantages are constructed almost all in their favor.
    Sep 24, 2015. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Market Watch [View article]
    Richard, great body of work. Thanks again.

    My work with the standard MFI indicates it almost always lags (too much), which is why I always shorten it to periods that give me a quicker heads up.
    I do this with many other indicators as well.

    How long can this Financial asset bubble last is the question.
    I don't know, but one thing I do know is that I am positively NOT going to buy overpriced stocks at these levels.
    I always look forward to your articles, and never fail to get a lot out of them.
    Sep 22, 2015. 02:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clinton campaign releases several details of drug plan [View news story]
    Let's let the voters decide, and not just the whining investors in biotech stocks, who really have had nothing to whine about for years.
    What goes around, comes around.
    Sep 22, 2015. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trickle Down Mythology Exposed [View instapost]
    Interesting that in our version of democracy, the minority controls and rules the majority.
    The GOP is both dying out and losing the youth of America.
    This means that they must increasingly use dictatorial and police state tactics similar to that exposed and used by Richard Nixon (and others) to maintain power, and so far, they have made a huge success of it.
    At the same time, too many of the opposition parties, responding to and envious of that success, have fallen in line and are using similar tactics and strategies, but at a somewhat lesser or successful degree.
    I don't see a way out, as the majority of Americans don't have a clue, and the ones that do don't have any backing from the clueless - by definition.
    That is why there are so few candidates from other parties as they don't see a way out either which leaves us with soft status quo candidates from the left, and combination circus and zoo candidates from the right protecting their own harder version thereof.
    If the soft status quo candidates are our least damaging choice, and it appears that they are, we continue to be in deep trouble , but at least it may stretch our survival time out a while longer, mediocre as it is.
    Sep 21, 2015. 10:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook - Charts, Fed And The Dollar [View article]
    The financial asset bubble is finding it difficult to keep expanding without breaking so it looks very much like more of the same for a much longer time, meanwhile the "potential" for it breaking remains in force.
    Technical analysis should continue to be an interesting pastime with very little payback for most investors.
    If we break to new highs without fundamental improvement , I will look to buy my first puts of the current cycle.
    This is not an optimum time to be adding funds to stocks or bonds in my view.
    I don't see the power brokers being able to rig a lasting upside breakout under these circumstances as they have on many occasions in the past.
    The FED led transfer of wealth has just about run it's course, but I don't think that most of the winners will be able to keep much of their gains, as a severe bear market coupled with hard economic times will mean that they will just have to rely on their own inherent wealth and privileged positions and not the added largess of paper financial gains - a pity.
    Sep 21, 2015. 09:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Valuation Dashboard By Sectors - First Edition [View article]
    Fred, You've done plenty of hard and good work for us so I willingly accept whatever data you offer us.
    I intend to do some kind of a weighting method with the data presented and combine it with other data as best I can.
    Thanks for all your good efforts and for sharing it with us.
    PS: Some have mentioned ROE, which to me requires too much additional research relative to debt , financial strength, etc.
    I think ROA, ROIC are better indicators in that particular group, but are also much too weak when taken alone, which is what makes your work such very good value added.
    The base period is very tough to choose, but whatever one is chosen, I think the years 1991 thru 1994 could be added to it as an expander because those years were "toned down" and not in a bubble, although one ensued 1995 thru 2000.
    Sep 11, 2015. 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY's Volume Speaks Volumes [View article]
    Pure volume is much too subtle for me. I can find little consistency in it so I routinely put only modest weight on it, with some occasional exceptions which confirm other evidence more than anything else.
    I find that the few tech ind's that include/combine volume help me a little more so I use them.
    One can make many statements about pure volume , but I have found it can be the most misleading at the time I need it's help the most so it is only a secondary ind. for me.
    Sep 11, 2015. 09:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Options Strategies And Your IRA Account [View article]
    A very late article read for me but a very good read including the comments.
    Article and comments do a good job at explaining what the brokers splash at us in segmented and disjointed ways, so thanks for condensing and simplifying some otherwise confusing info from the brokers where few standard practices exist between brokers.
    Thanks for the good work - new follower.
    Sep 10, 2015. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Saint Peter's Feet [View article]
    A.Z. That's a very good next question and one to ponder at length, but not too long as something could be gaining on us.
    Have already done this and continue to do so , and my conclusions are not encouraging.
    Thanks for the good efforts you have presented to us, and I will keep reading them with interest.
    Sep 8, 2015. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Saint Peter's Feet [View article]
    A.Z. You have much more faith in the FED than I do, as I have no more faith in them than I do in Congress, the Admin. (any), or SC, as I think they have all been corrupted beyond repair.
    That which does not expose and kill corruption makes it stronger.
    It keeps getting stronger.
    It is seldom exposed, and never killed.
    Any examples to the contrary?
    Sep 7, 2015. 09:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment