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  • No GDP Growth In Q1? [View article]
    Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP = an official recession.
    Watch them "seasonally adjust" their way out of it - should it actually occur.
    Apr 28, 2015. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Technical Tuesday: 2,100 Still The Line To Beat On The S&P [View article]
    Phil, You've nailed it once again.
    How often now do you see interesting, controvertial subjects and people discussing important issues in a way that is not popular with the corporate news controllers? Rarely!
    If allowed at all, they quarantine them up in the nosebleed area of the channel listings , and at a time when the mass of viewers are least likely to see them.
    Did get to see Daniel Ellsberg this weekend, and how he managed to get on, I don't know, a rare occurrence, but he did an excellent interview while relating his past experiences with current affairs.
    They shut down Keith Olbermann completely except for sports, and Jesse V. retired to the Baja. I miss their candor and courage speaking truth to power (unhealthy in this country).
    The power brokers are in a sweat trying to get that volume up on up days , so far , hasn't been working very well.
    Getting harder to peddle the junk at ever higher prices, but I'm sure they will think of something.
    Apr 28, 2015. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Manipulation Takes Center Stage [View article]
    Phil, We and many others have known this for years, that it's a Skim, Scalp, and Scam operation (SSS) by many players, and the officials make sure they don't catch them in the required numbers , and the few that they do catch take years to accomplish.
    How did this guy slip thru the crack and get caught?
    He must have made the wrong guys mad , or he wouldn't have been caught either. Martha Stewart donated to the wrong party, and that's all it took for her relatively minor transgression.
    As many of us have stated before, if they applied the Martha Stewart standard to the entire industry, how many of them would be in jail?
    They'd have to shut down the entire industry!
    Apr 22, 2015. 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Equity And Economic Review For The Week; False Break-Out Edition [View article]
    Stagnation lubricated with financial snake oil retains it's smelly and harsh grip, resulting in more wealth for the wealthy, more poverty for the poor, and confusion and frustration for all but the insiders and power elite.
    Rigging and racketeering win the day, every day.
    We let it happen, and as long as we continue to do so, it will stay that way.
    It will not fix itself - guaranteed.
    Apr 21, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Developments In Foreign Stock Markets Are Hard To Ignore [View article]
    I agree, also, this is one of those cases where a highly competent mutual fund manager can make a difference, esp. those large enough to have overseas offices and contacts that can assist them in their searches and analysis.
    It (foreign) is one of the few places I use mutual fund's instead of ETF's and individual stocks, but if you've got a country or region (ETF) or stock that you really like then that's different.
    Apr 21, 2015. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Fed Caused An Economic Slowdown? [View article]
    Author: You are correct in that the FED does not steer the "economy".

    It DOES steer the Stock Market.

    It operates to serve , protect, and further enrich the power brokers in this country.
    It does not serve the majority of Americans in any meaningful constructive and positive way.
    It should be audited (with teeth) , reformed substantially, and/or banned.
    Apr 19, 2015. 01:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Exposure To Small-Value Stocks [View article]
    Nice article. Thanks.
    Apr 15, 2015. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Bulls March Through Earnings? [View article]
    Well Done.
    I do a lot of similar work and it is good to get a sound treatment from another source.
    I also agree that "it ain't over till it's over", but I find that good stocks are fully valued fundamentally, and I don't anticipate that anything much this earnings season is going to change that in any large way.
    This suggests to me that upside breakouts, though they may be strong initially, are going to run out of steam fast, and the give backs to any run ups will be substantial in a manner not unlike we have already seen for awhile.
    A 20% sell off would clear a lot of this up once the dust settled, but due to rigged interest rates , uncertainty will remain high, and only insiders, ( the mythical/proverbial "stronger hands") will know anything for sure.
    Apr 15, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Concerns That Have Me Worried About The Overvalued Markets In 2015 [View article]
    Good work and I share the same concerns and quite a few more.

    The FED is the official rigger of the bond market which drives the stock market.
    They have put us back into "quicksand" economics so that no matter which way we/they wiggle we sink deeper.

    This could go on for a lot longer, but not indefinitely, and the actions taken probably won't be that meaningful anyway.
    Finally watched a CEO with some backbone and character on TV.
    Name is Mark T. Bertolini of Aetna.
    He refused to sacrifice his employees to win the admiration of Wall Street, and instead improved their wages, benefits, and education rather than buy back stock or increase dividend as some were demanding.
    With more like him, I might regain a little faith in the system.
    Wall Street only has to beat bond yields in order to stay afloat, and that isn't hard the way things are coordinated now.
    A lot of people seem happy/satisfied with the prospects of 4 to 8% annual gains no matter what the risks so WS still holds all the trump cards which they shout at us every single day so we don't forget it for an instant.
    Apr 10, 2015. 09:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Stock-Flow Accounting And The Coming $10 Trillion Loss In Paper Wealth [View article]
    Automation/robotics and software results in higher productivity and less need for workers. Offshore outsourcing adds to the dilemma.
    Fewer workers getting paychecks means less saving and investment.
    This is in addition to all the other points made by author and others, although it directly relates to them.

    There are an increasing number of citizens who cannot compete with the advanced inanimate technology or better educated competition, or the offshore outsourcing.
    It looks like a continuing downward spiral for all people in that growing category.
    Meanwhile , the more powerful and better positioned take a larger portion of the available pie.
    A society where three quarters of the population are impoverished , and one quarter have few concerns is where we are heading, and have been since 1970 in my view.
    There are no federal programs that address this calamity, and the private ones are mostly unconcerned and ineffective.
    Until these issues are addressed, "What You See Is What You Get", and more so each passing year.
    Until priorities change on a massive scale, get used to it, and try to avoid taking high and unnecessary risks, or it may cost you any chance to get into or stay in that top 25%.
    Just another way of saying invest wisely (in all things) and with a great deal of care.
    Apr 6, 2015. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stocks: Oh Behave! [View article]
    About as well balanced a view as one can get. Thanks.
    In the recent past, it has taken some "scare" , like Ukraine, Ebola, or something similar to roil the markets, and I expect that to continue for awhile before a general downtrend sets in.
    Note that it has to be life threatening, as any form of corruption exposed won't do the job for more than a few days at most, if at all.
    Right now , the new growing scare is fighting in/around Yemen, and we'll have to see where that takes us.
    Maybe a weak first quarter GDP and weak earnings guidance could keep things soft and the enthusiasm muted also.
    I still expect rallies to be fairly short and the give backs to be substantial until the forward picture brightens.
    Thanks again for a fine series of articles and expert insights.
    Mar 27, 2015. 05:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Is Better: Cap-Weighting Or Equal-Weighting? [View article]
    This article goes a long way toward resolving the issue and is pretty much what I expected based on my less rigorous observations.
    In a way, the results make the most sense, as smaller companies in a solid broad index should experience the most growth in the majority of situations, while in Energy , the larger well established integrated companies tend to do better and struggle less than the smaller less capitalized ones.
    Very well done , and I appreciate this fine contribution to the readership.
    Mar 27, 2015. 05:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Trend Analysis By Comparing Equal Weight To Market Weight Indexes [View article]
    I'm a long term fan of breadth observance also, and this article helps illuminate the subject even more. Thanks.
    This treatment reminds me of the situation where a person says:
    "I may look just fine, but I'm not feeling all that well."

    When added to price/volume/moneyflow... etc., the breadth domain can add some powerful insight into just how much energy is supporting the general trend, and I look at and consider them all.
    Thanks again for another excellent article in your long list of same.
    PS: I'm also a fan of that 5 DEMA and 5 DROC also, among a large family of MA's that I use.
    Mar 27, 2015. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Use Your Illusion I: Summary And Conclusions For Prospects On S&P Sales Growth [View article]
    Adam,
    You've demonstrated that you have a great handle on the Price to Sales issue, and I thank you for sharing it with us in such a well developed and well presented manner.
    I am sure that a lot of highly informed people representing the Institutions and major wealth holders are in the market long and apparently intend to stay that way. They are supported by the momentum players and the investors unfamiliar with stock fundamentals and market dynamics.
    When I look at the fundamentals and risks of buying new stocks at these price levels I get a chill and refrain from doing so, although I do hold core positions domestically and internationally.
    The power of the institutions, the momentum players, and the unfamiliar make shorting the market just as risky in my view.
    I do think that certain buys after strong sell offs coupled with option sell premiums could make some sense depending on the circumstances.
    Otherwise , I will continue to sit this one out for the reasons stated in your article as well as a number of other things I am watching.
    A superb series of articles and I thank you greatly.
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Relative Risk Adjusted Return For Retirees And Those Who Prefer A Smoother Ride [View article]
    Richard, Did you use the Morningstar version of Sortino Ratio, or a different version? Details would be useful. Thanks.
    Mar 21, 2015. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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