SeekingTruth's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/232516/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175815-what-s-in-store-for-december?source=feed#comment-783448 783448 That said, a separate chart displayed just below the one presented (100 yrs) that showed each month's performance since 1950 would have made it even better.
And there are many more interesting ways to display the data also, such as showing each months average performance for each year of a Presidential Election Cycle, etc. would also be relevant and useful, at least to me.]]> Mon, 30 Nov 2009 18:53:37 -0500 That said, a separate chart displayed just below the one presented (100 yrs) that showed each month's performance since 1950 would have made it even better.
And there are many more interesting ways to display the data also, such as showing each months average performance for each year of a Presidential Election Cycle, etc. would also be relevant and useful, at least to me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175754-market-outlooks-by-sector-part-2?source=feed#comment-783218 783218
The question relative the OIH Oil Service Holders is an interesting one and no doubt speculation plays an important part of the scenario relative to the crude element.
However, so does the intention of the Saudi Oil Minister who is determined to keep oil in the 75 to 80 dollar range at least for the near future, and until they decide on a new target price.
So far they have done a masterful job.
As long as the speculators know that they have this powerful ally, crude oil will be buoyed up unless we have another hammer blow to the economy, or the speculators get tired of storing it ,dollar gains strength, etc..
However , it does look like the service providers could suffer in spite of this and could possibly provide a decent short for those with the nerves and the time for due diligence/vigilance. Thanks for pointing this out.
Liked your article and comments a lot. Thanks again.]]> Mon, 30 Nov 2009 16:36:07 -0500
The question relative the OIH Oil Service Holders is an interesting one and no doubt speculation plays an important part of the scenario relative to the crude element.
However, so does the intention of the Saudi Oil Minister who is determined to keep oil in the 75 to 80 dollar range at least for the near future, and until they decide on a new target price.
So far they have done a masterful job.
As long as the speculators know that they have this powerful ally, crude oil will be buoyed up unless we have another hammer blow to the economy, or the speculators get tired of storing it ,dollar gains strength, etc..
However , it does look like the service providers could suffer in spite of this and could possibly provide a decent short for those with the nerves and the time for due diligence/vigilance. Thanks for pointing this out.
Liked your article and comments a lot. Thanks again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175734-economic-recovery-commodity-charts-don-t-think-so?source=feed#comment-783002 783002 Thanks for a well presented and info rich article.]]> Mon, 30 Nov 2009 14:06:33 -0500 Thanks for a well presented and info rich article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175648-weekly-etf-rewind-volatility-reintroduced?source=feed#comment-782974 782974 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 13:56:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175705-wealthtrack-robert-rodriguez-is-even-more-worried-about-future?source=feed#comment-782803 782803 I have never heard of or listened to Robert Rodriguez before , but it was like a conversation with an old wise friend.
His term "Repression" for the combination of recession/depression is most apt.
Also a "caterpillar" economy (up and down and sloooow) is also worth remembering .
My question is , Will it be a "stinging" caterpillar as well?
I agree with his long term view, that (my phrase):
"what's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable" modus operandi in America has run its course, and clearly a new strategy is called for but will probably not be realized, at least not in time to do the most good.
Bottom line : continue to invest cautiously, but moreso, and on that we also agree.
Thanks for another well selected video.]]> Mon, 30 Nov 2009 12:32:40 -0500 I have never heard of or listened to Robert Rodriguez before , but it was like a conversation with an old wise friend.
His term "Repression" for the combination of recession/depression is most apt.
Also a "caterpillar" economy (up and down and sloooow) is also worth remembering .
My question is , Will it be a "stinging" caterpillar as well?
I agree with his long term view, that (my phrase):
"what's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable" modus operandi in America has run its course, and clearly a new strategy is called for but will probably not be realized, at least not in time to do the most good.
Bottom line : continue to invest cautiously, but moreso, and on that we also agree.
Thanks for another well selected video.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/354433-cliff-wachtel/37383-the-must-know-truth-about-stocks-and-the-usd?source=feed#comment-779004 779004 Thu, 26 Nov 2009 21:51:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175061-options-trader-tuesday-outlook-big-data-day?source=feed#comment-775318 775318 Easy to understand the reason for your huge following, Phil, and why you have become a must read on my daily agenda.
Please accept my complete appreciation.]]> Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:45:37 -0500 Easy to understand the reason for your huge following, Phil, and why you have become a must read on my daily agenda.
Please accept my complete appreciation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174964-15-indicators-we-re-watching-now?source=feed#comment-775230 775230
Now if we only had a chart showing us the high frequency trades pump and dump and dark pool effects on the market it might tell us more of what the big guys are up to.
This has got to be a huge factor in day to day transactions and a effective license to steal, and why the small investor has lost any faith at all in the honesty of the stock markets, among many other things.
Nonetheless, a good family of charts that tells a lot about the current internal strength of the NYSE.]]> Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:16:49 -0500
Now if we only had a chart showing us the high frequency trades pump and dump and dark pool effects on the market it might tell us more of what the big guys are up to.
This has got to be a huge factor in day to day transactions and a effective license to steal, and why the small investor has lost any faith at all in the honesty of the stock markets, among many other things.
Nonetheless, a good family of charts that tells a lot about the current internal strength of the NYSE.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174739-testing-the-performance-of-price-to-book-value?source=feed#comment-774337 774337 low price to free cash flow , high return on invested capital, low enterprise to ebitda ratios , etc.
How does low price to book compare to the larger family of ratios that it is a part of?
Without this knowledge , you could be winning some but still playing in the second division.]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:25:50 -0500 low price to free cash flow , high return on invested capital, low enterprise to ebitda ratios , etc.
How does low price to book compare to the larger family of ratios that it is a part of?
Without this knowledge , you could be winning some but still playing in the second division.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174763-the-dow-at-4000-don-t-laugh-it-could-easily-happen?source=feed#comment-774315 774315
ALL spending to this point can be laid on the brow of GWB and the lack of regulations, incompetent Dept. agency heads of dubious character throughout his administration, and the crooked private and public institutions that he and they mutually supported.
Where is Christopher Cox hiding these days?
Selective ? NO - properly inclusive - YES.

Other than that, liked your interesting article and your writing style very much.]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:46:24 -0500
ALL spending to this point can be laid on the brow of GWB and the lack of regulations, incompetent Dept. agency heads of dubious character throughout his administration, and the crooked private and public institutions that he and they mutually supported.
Where is Christopher Cox hiding these days?
Selective ? NO - properly inclusive - YES.

Other than that, liked your interesting article and your writing style very much.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174614-market-volume-still-an-unanswered-question?source=feed#comment-773833 773833 I gave you a thumbs up for your response to my response, and my answer is more complicated than I can describe here, however,
Some reasons for my own particular methods are that I am paying the freight for sending my grandchildren thru college and so I anticipate their needs and take profits to assure that they can stay in school , also, I am helping members of my family impacted by the recession ,etc. (one graduate so far).
I have a tendency to reduce risk for these and other reasons and also when things don't look or smell right to me, and this helped me to avoid the 73-74, 82, 87, and 08 set backs and so I didn't lose my willingness to invest after they occurred.
For example, I sold in Aug. 2007 in order to meet all "extra" needs , like education,assistance, etc. for the next two years even though the market held up for a while longer. My macro economic studies/recession-watch convinced me it was due for a correction even without the derivatives mess and financial meltdown.
I didn't take the chance on being distracted (emergency or death in the family, etc. or for any other reason occurring like my own or broker computer problems or whatever.)
Another reason is that I don't want to sit in front of a computer monitor all day even though this can be and is alleviated a number of ways with trailing stops, options, ,etc. which I do use to help this problem.

That said , I do have some fairly good technical and moving average sliding scale methods and metrics that are adjusted to account for a variety of changing conditions for every sector and category invested in, and I fiddle with them continuously as I learn more about the markets and the economy as they (and I) change.
This includes fiscal/monetary policy, and conditions like the anticipated "mark to market" suspension that occurred March 31, etc.
For awhile these factors have kept me almost entirely in foreign markets, and the anticipated downward pressure on the dollar, and the relative uncertainty of the American economy and debt/monetary prospects are mainly the reasons why.
So even though the domestic market is currently rising with a falling dollar (this might change suddenly), I nonetheless receive more dollars back when I do sell foreign holdings, at least for now, and protect somewhat against that possible "sudden change" in market dollar sentiment.
I try to diversify across the value/volatility scale considering and favoring the highest risk- adjusted returns first and do per centage allocations accordingly as best I can using the pyramid scheme most of the time i.e.(highest risk receives lowest per centage allocated "generally").
I violate this if I think the reward is probably there and justifies the extra risk, but this , of course , requires extra vigilence when done.
So far it has worked well overall and I endeavor to keep learning something new every day.
Your comments were and are greatly appreciated and I am putting you on my follow list as you have much to offer and consider. Thanks for your interest.]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:00:31 -0500 I gave you a thumbs up for your response to my response, and my answer is more complicated than I can describe here, however,
Some reasons for my own particular methods are that I am paying the freight for sending my grandchildren thru college and so I anticipate their needs and take profits to assure that they can stay in school , also, I am helping members of my family impacted by the recession ,etc. (one graduate so far).
I have a tendency to reduce risk for these and other reasons and also when things don't look or smell right to me, and this helped me to avoid the 73-74, 82, 87, and 08 set backs and so I didn't lose my willingness to invest after they occurred.
For example, I sold in Aug. 2007 in order to meet all "extra" needs , like education,assistance, etc. for the next two years even though the market held up for a while longer. My macro economic studies/recession-watch convinced me it was due for a correction even without the derivatives mess and financial meltdown.
I didn't take the chance on being distracted (emergency or death in the family, etc. or for any other reason occurring like my own or broker computer problems or whatever.)
Another reason is that I don't want to sit in front of a computer monitor all day even though this can be and is alleviated a number of ways with trailing stops, options, ,etc. which I do use to help this problem.

That said , I do have some fairly good technical and moving average sliding scale methods and metrics that are adjusted to account for a variety of changing conditions for every sector and category invested in, and I fiddle with them continuously as I learn more about the markets and the economy as they (and I) change.
This includes fiscal/monetary policy, and conditions like the anticipated "mark to market" suspension that occurred March 31, etc.
For awhile these factors have kept me almost entirely in foreign markets, and the anticipated downward pressure on the dollar, and the relative uncertainty of the American economy and debt/monetary prospects are mainly the reasons why.
So even though the domestic market is currently rising with a falling dollar (this might change suddenly), I nonetheless receive more dollars back when I do sell foreign holdings, at least for now, and protect somewhat against that possible "sudden change" in market dollar sentiment.
I try to diversify across the value/volatility scale considering and favoring the highest risk- adjusted returns first and do per centage allocations accordingly as best I can using the pyramid scheme most of the time i.e.(highest risk receives lowest per centage allocated "generally").
I violate this if I think the reward is probably there and justifies the extra risk, but this , of course , requires extra vigilence when done.
So far it has worked well overall and I endeavor to keep learning something new every day.
Your comments were and are greatly appreciated and I am putting you on my follow list as you have much to offer and consider. Thanks for your interest.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174614-market-volume-still-an-unanswered-question?source=feed#comment-772774 772774 For S&P 500 would have used reasonably "tight" as 7% And 200 SMA touched or breached because many use 8% now and so would have probably avoided a spike down.
In different times would have used 8% also and a time lag on the 200 SMA depending on conditions, and needs for cash on a forward basis.
As it turned out , I was not stopped out either as all my funds are invested in foreign markets that did not breach both targets, except for one domestic hybrid fund which stayed well above both sell targets (PRPFX). I have however taken some profits at points above 40% gain during the run up, and will take some more and protect what remains in, with no sell targets used or needed.

Also thought then than Alcoa coming in with better than expected earnings was overplayed by the general market., and so would have gotten out or used protection if I had any at risk in the broad domestic market. Of course investors still loved it well after that time and it has paid off well for you folks , congratulations.
I am forced to take comfort in my Intl. holdings with higher than domestic returns, but which of course due to higher than previous correlations and very strong performance are also vulnerable, hence , some more profit taking without sell signals.]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 23:24:37 -0500 For S&P 500 would have used reasonably "tight" as 7% And 200 SMA touched or breached because many use 8% now and so would have probably avoided a spike down.
In different times would have used 8% also and a time lag on the 200 SMA depending on conditions, and needs for cash on a forward basis.
As it turned out , I was not stopped out either as all my funds are invested in foreign markets that did not breach both targets, except for one domestic hybrid fund which stayed well above both sell targets (PRPFX). I have however taken some profits at points above 40% gain during the run up, and will take some more and protect what remains in, with no sell targets used or needed.

Also thought then than Alcoa coming in with better than expected earnings was overplayed by the general market., and so would have gotten out or used protection if I had any at risk in the broad domestic market. Of course investors still loved it well after that time and it has paid off well for you folks , congratulations.
I am forced to take comfort in my Intl. holdings with higher than domestic returns, but which of course due to higher than previous correlations and very strong performance are also vulnerable, hence , some more profit taking without sell signals.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174614-market-volume-still-an-unanswered-question?source=feed#comment-772307 772307 Reasonably tight stops would have taken most cautious and rational investor's out of the market during the June - July slide as it did the highly experienced and market savy Art Cashin.
To stay fully in meant that one had the ability to take high risk based on either faith alone or some other group of metrics that I am not aware of. So it looks like to me that the modern era market investing is based more on faith and a lucky guessing game than on fundamentals or anything else that the investor can hang his hat on.
Trend lines and moving averages, and many other technical indicators help a little , but they will stop you out and/or whip saw you if one has a reasonably strict discipline.
This suggests either a "faith or trade" choice for most market participants. No wonder volume is low.

This makes it more like Las Vegas than ever before , and we all know that there the house is allowed to win their share legally i.e. steal their share all fair and square.
And there their motto is "keep the faith baby".]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 18:16:18 -0500 Reasonably tight stops would have taken most cautious and rational investor's out of the market during the June - July slide as it did the highly experienced and market savy Art Cashin.
To stay fully in meant that one had the ability to take high risk based on either faith alone or some other group of metrics that I am not aware of. So it looks like to me that the modern era market investing is based more on faith and a lucky guessing game than on fundamentals or anything else that the investor can hang his hat on.
Trend lines and moving averages, and many other technical indicators help a little , but they will stop you out and/or whip saw you if one has a reasonably strict discipline.
This suggests either a "faith or trade" choice for most market participants. No wonder volume is low.

This makes it more like Las Vegas than ever before , and we all know that there the house is allowed to win their share legally i.e. steal their share all fair and square.
And there their motto is "keep the faith baby".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174683-global-markets-in-review-share-prices-too-far-ahead-of-economic-reality?source=feed#comment-772110 772110 " Mark to My Magic Marker"
and sugar coated cocaine laced stimulus high can take us WITHOUT more of the same fare injected into the veins of what serves as our economic and financial systems.
It would "help" some but by no means as much as in March.

Basically have agreed with Roubini all along on domestic issues , and with some others Internationally which have told a far different story at least up until now.
Not a bad time to take some profits and/or acquire some insurance in both arenas as it is becoming easier to recognize and assess the unsustainable every day.]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 15:28:38 -0500 " Mark to My Magic Marker"
and sugar coated cocaine laced stimulus high can take us WITHOUT more of the same fare injected into the veins of what serves as our economic and financial systems.
It would "help" some but by no means as much as in March.

Basically have agreed with Roubini all along on domestic issues , and with some others Internationally which have told a far different story at least up until now.
Not a bad time to take some profits and/or acquire some insurance in both arenas as it is becoming easier to recognize and assess the unsustainable every day.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174528-options-trader-friday-outlook-is-goldman-sachs-stupid-or-evil?source=feed#comment-768944 768944 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:32:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174187-energy-watch-solve-for-california?source=feed#comment-768266 768266
Otherwise the only rail system will be the Unirail in Disneyland which I once saw hanging upside down from its single track.
I have always thought that the state is too large and should be split into two states.

Like some others, I am glad that I left there at an early age and returned South even though the work in the aerospace industry was very interesting, and I liked my co workers and most of the people that I met. Can't say that about some other places.

Overall a good plan and much better than doing nothing.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:03:08 -0500
Otherwise the only rail system will be the Unirail in Disneyland which I once saw hanging upside down from its single track.
I have always thought that the state is too large and should be split into two states.

Like some others, I am glad that I left there at an early age and returned South even though the work in the aerospace industry was very interesting, and I liked my co workers and most of the people that I met. Can't say that about some other places.

Overall a good plan and much better than doing nothing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174411-the-slippery-truth-about-oil-price?source=feed#comment-768225 768225
We in America are still too distracted with our own home grown and practiced ideology and political fights to make any where near enough progress with a non existent energy policy, and we desperately need an energy policy.
That means that our future is basically in their (OPEC) hands , and not our own , except to the extent that we can make things even worse than they are if we fail to act which is well past due.

If we take the "conservative" position of not fixing anything if it ain't broke (even though it is surely about to break), and wait until it fully breaks like our bridges , dams , and dikes, and financial system, it will be far too late to avoid the massive privation and suffering that is quickly becoming baked into our national cake, and we shall surely be forced to eat our own cooking.

Better that we plan , prepare, initiate, and implement an energy policy even if it earns the scorned term of "liberal progressives" by the right wing.
If we fail to do this , the price we pay (and are paying) wil be 100's of times greater than more intelligent action would cost.
If you don't believe me , just ask TVA and Lehman Bros.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:12:49 -0500
We in America are still too distracted with our own home grown and practiced ideology and political fights to make any where near enough progress with a non existent energy policy, and we desperately need an energy policy.
That means that our future is basically in their (OPEC) hands , and not our own , except to the extent that we can make things even worse than they are if we fail to act which is well past due.

If we take the "conservative" position of not fixing anything if it ain't broke (even though it is surely about to break), and wait until it fully breaks like our bridges , dams , and dikes, and financial system, it will be far too late to avoid the massive privation and suffering that is quickly becoming baked into our national cake, and we shall surely be forced to eat our own cooking.

Better that we plan , prepare, initiate, and implement an energy policy even if it earns the scorned term of "liberal progressives" by the right wing.
If we fail to do this , the price we pay (and are paying) wil be 100's of times greater than more intelligent action would cost.
If you don't believe me , just ask TVA and Lehman Bros.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174101-fed-sends-gold-higher-but-what-is-it-good-for?source=feed#comment-767520 767520 A mule, a plow , land - some cleared, some forested, a well , a wind mill, tools, a wood/coal burning stove, some solar assist if you can afford it now, weapons, farm animals, sewing machine etc. etc., and all the other safety and security items that you can muster.
After you obtain and secure all these things, buy
some gold, or at least accumulate concurrently while you are obtaining both.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:35:51 -0500 A mule, a plow , land - some cleared, some forested, a well , a wind mill, tools, a wood/coal burning stove, some solar assist if you can afford it now, weapons, farm animals, sewing machine etc. etc., and all the other safety and security items that you can muster.
After you obtain and secure all these things, buy
some gold, or at least accumulate concurrently while you are obtaining both.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174300-options-trader-thursday-outlook-cre-data-day?source=feed#comment-767459 767459 The Repeal was TOTALLY VETO PROOF led by the Republicans.
It was foolish of Tim not to use this opportunity to remind the viewing public of this fact and instead allow the huge public misperception to persist.
Good article and reco's and I agree completely with your ambivalence in this market, it is well warranted.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:05:51 -0500 The Repeal was TOTALLY VETO PROOF led by the Republicans.
It was foolish of Tim not to use this opportunity to remind the viewing public of this fact and instead allow the huge public misperception to persist.
Good article and reco's and I agree completely with your ambivalence in this market, it is well warranted.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174249-why-you-can-t-short-this-market-the-expectation-ratio?source=feed#comment-767374 767374 Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:19:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174249-why-you-can-t-short-this-market-the-expectation-ratio?source=feed#comment-767098 767098
There is , however , one area of investing that needs to be better acknowledged and covered, that while enormous in its effect, is overlooked by "most" investor's that focus on traditional things like earnings and earnings expectations, etc. all important , to be sure, but not even close to being enough.
The major insiders know these things (below) well in advance which is why they stay several leaps ahead of the general public.
That subject involves the intersection of Wall Street and Constitution Ave, and we need a major category name for it , and better tracking and advance warnings which I will be working on, and I hope others will also.

Consider when this huge rally started :

It started when word got out that FASB chairman Robert Herz, under massive congressional pressure, was to announce that "Mark to Market" (M2M) was to be suspended, which they in fact did suspend , almost simultaneously with the start of the sharp and dramatic part of the rally in early March (9th).
"Mark to Market" then became :

Mark to My Magic Marker

Which then meant that the banks could write their own ticket for valuing their own toxic assets and avoid insolvency , virtually, by "hook or crook" as my old math teacher used to say.

The market knew that the rules would greatly effect balance sheets and allow "creative accounting" and "earnings expectations" like no one ever dreamed of with added opaqueness replacing what little transparency that existed.

OK, this is a much bigger subject than I can properly address here, and I have volumes in my own mind, and I only wished to raise the subject so that we could better and more fully address these things here on SA, along with the more traditional approaches so often taken like the kind so well addressed in this excellent article.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:21:38 -0500
There is , however , one area of investing that needs to be better acknowledged and covered, that while enormous in its effect, is overlooked by "most" investor's that focus on traditional things like earnings and earnings expectations, etc. all important , to be sure, but not even close to being enough.
The major insiders know these things (below) well in advance which is why they stay several leaps ahead of the general public.
That subject involves the intersection of Wall Street and Constitution Ave, and we need a major category name for it , and better tracking and advance warnings which I will be working on, and I hope others will also.

Consider when this huge rally started :

It started when word got out that FASB chairman Robert Herz, under massive congressional pressure, was to announce that "Mark to Market" (M2M) was to be suspended, which they in fact did suspend , almost simultaneously with the start of the sharp and dramatic part of the rally in early March (9th).
"Mark to Market" then became :

Mark to My Magic Marker

Which then meant that the banks could write their own ticket for valuing their own toxic assets and avoid insolvency , virtually, by "hook or crook" as my old math teacher used to say.

The market knew that the rules would greatly effect balance sheets and allow "creative accounting" and "earnings expectations" like no one ever dreamed of with added opaqueness replacing what little transparency that existed.

OK, this is a much bigger subject than I can properly address here, and I have volumes in my own mind, and I only wished to raise the subject so that we could better and more fully address these things here on SA, along with the more traditional approaches so often taken like the kind so well addressed in this excellent article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173907-asset-allocation-is-the-old-normal-becoming-the-new-normal?source=feed#comment-764736 764736 Tue, 17 Nov 2009 22:09:38 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173907-asset-allocation-is-the-old-normal-becoming-the-new-normal?source=feed#comment-764629 764629
I liked Graham comment previous until his last sentence came up. The cash/bond strategy can be done to success I am sure , but I can't think of very many investor's that would be satisfied with a 2 to 4% return year in and year out.

Adding commodities, real estate, currencies, International stocks and bonds , very limited options (careful), etc. to the mix makes things much more interesting and profitable "if" one has the time and skill (and personal interest) to monitor and manage the broader portfolio.
Good market runs often have a 2 up years 1 down (or weak) type of pattern. This caught up with the year 2005 which was much lower than a normal year ending in 5 historically, partly because of the good run in '03 and '04 ( It looks trivial, but check the history and you will see what I mean.) The four year cycle also caught up with an otherwise unexplainable Spring correction in 2006.
Four year and two year cycles , Presidential election cycles, monetary policy, economic status, real estate environment, dollar status, etc.etc. all have some bearing on how the asset mix and portfolio could be managed for highest return and lower risk.
To maximize profit and lower risk, the trick is to determine which variables are the more relevant during any given time period.
The current scenario of greater than normal chaos and uncertainty suggests a more passive asset mix (with more cash) for many folks that lack the necessary time and skills required for higher returns (or loss avoidance), and your article serves their and our needs very well indeed, and I applaud your superb efforts with this article in assisting us all in this regard.]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 21:46:07 -0500
I liked Graham comment previous until his last sentence came up. The cash/bond strategy can be done to success I am sure , but I can't think of very many investor's that would be satisfied with a 2 to 4% return year in and year out.

Adding commodities, real estate, currencies, International stocks and bonds , very limited options (careful), etc. to the mix makes things much more interesting and profitable "if" one has the time and skill (and personal interest) to monitor and manage the broader portfolio.
Good market runs often have a 2 up years 1 down (or weak) type of pattern. This caught up with the year 2005 which was much lower than a normal year ending in 5 historically, partly because of the good run in '03 and '04 ( It looks trivial, but check the history and you will see what I mean.) The four year cycle also caught up with an otherwise unexplainable Spring correction in 2006.
Four year and two year cycles , Presidential election cycles, monetary policy, economic status, real estate environment, dollar status, etc.etc. all have some bearing on how the asset mix and portfolio could be managed for highest return and lower risk.
To maximize profit and lower risk, the trick is to determine which variables are the more relevant during any given time period.
The current scenario of greater than normal chaos and uncertainty suggests a more passive asset mix (with more cash) for many folks that lack the necessary time and skills required for higher returns (or loss avoidance), and your article serves their and our needs very well indeed, and I applaud your superb efforts with this article in assisting us all in this regard.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173805-options-trader-25-off-the-top-tuesday?source=feed#comment-763924 763924 I am NOT even "reluctantly" bullish, but I know enough not to step in front of a runaway freight train.
The shorts and put buyers got their heads handed to them yesterday.
This time I have guessed right and have not bought any --- yet.

So , we're back in the bubble mode (again), and to me it looks like bubble , bubble , boil and trouble without a lot of variation, really, from last time.
This is a slow to melt in your hand M&M (Momentum & Manipulation) sugar candy high rally laced with stimulus cocaine.
I will give the pure longs merit for courage , except for the Golden Sharks who clearly don't need any, --- and the shorts a lot of aspirin and petroleum jelly to soothe their wounds and maybe a food basket at Christmas.
Still, to be in this current market without some protection (of various sorts) appears unwise to me.
The trick so far has been not to over-do it on the protection side, but that may be changing.
Thanks for the great read and interesting info, and the cartoons are super also.]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:41:03 -0500 I am NOT even "reluctantly" bullish, but I know enough not to step in front of a runaway freight train.
The shorts and put buyers got their heads handed to them yesterday.
This time I have guessed right and have not bought any --- yet.

So , we're back in the bubble mode (again), and to me it looks like bubble , bubble , boil and trouble without a lot of variation, really, from last time.
This is a slow to melt in your hand M&M (Momentum & Manipulation) sugar candy high rally laced with stimulus cocaine.
I will give the pure longs merit for courage , except for the Golden Sharks who clearly don't need any, --- and the shorts a lot of aspirin and petroleum jelly to soothe their wounds and maybe a food basket at Christmas.
Still, to be in this current market without some protection (of various sorts) appears unwise to me.
The trick so far has been not to over-do it on the protection side, but that may be changing.
Thanks for the great read and interesting info, and the cartoons are super also.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173450-why-i-m-moving-from-multi-year-recovery-to-double-dip-baseline?source=feed#comment-761799 761799
Crisis monetary policy = no stronger dollar.

No fair and appropriate regulations =
Bubbles, but no stronger America.

No fairness, honesty or intelligence in government or business = stagnation, decay.

Indifference, apathy , and inaction by public =
continued hard times , no progress.

Thanks for a good article and suggestions, but its going to take a great deal more than what you suggest.]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:29:10 -0500
Crisis monetary policy = no stronger dollar.

No fair and appropriate regulations =
Bubbles, but no stronger America.

No fairness, honesty or intelligence in government or business = stagnation, decay.

Indifference, apathy , and inaction by public =
continued hard times , no progress.

Thanks for a good article and suggestions, but its going to take a great deal more than what you suggest.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173395-bubble-spotting-isn-t-hard-but-whose-job-is-it?source=feed#comment-760958 760958 The reason is that our system is "operated" to sponsor , promote, and protect the established, entrenched, diamond hardened status quo, which is that relatively few profit massively , readily, and easily at the expense and detriment of others. Change the rules , and you change the results ---- not likely.
Good and interesting article, and much to ponder, aided by the graph, etc,. Thanks.]]> Sun, 15 Nov 2009 12:01:47 -0500 The reason is that our system is "operated" to sponsor , promote, and protect the established, entrenched, diamond hardened status quo, which is that relatively few profit massively , readily, and easily at the expense and detriment of others. Change the rules , and you change the results ---- not likely.
Good and interesting article, and much to ponder, aided by the graph, etc,. Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173282-sen-dorgan-the-system-is-rigged?source=feed#comment-760402 760402 He is in my very small group of select politicians noted for trying to do their best for the American people.
That is one of the reasons I am an Independent and support any politician only with great care and long term observation.
Unfortunately , they are in the minority, and are outnumbered on every major issue.
The ones in the majority typically are the bought off , sold out, self serving , ideological , special interest group of sycophants and sops practicing the corrupt money laundering shell game, and entrenched diamond hardened status quo that they were sent to Congress to protect and practice every single day.
Senator Byron Dorgan is not to be included in that sorry group.]]> Sat, 14 Nov 2009 15:43:31 -0500 He is in my very small group of select politicians noted for trying to do their best for the American people.
That is one of the reasons I am an Independent and support any politician only with great care and long term observation.
Unfortunately , they are in the minority, and are outnumbered on every major issue.
The ones in the majority typically are the bought off , sold out, self serving , ideological , special interest group of sycophants and sops practicing the corrupt money laundering shell game, and entrenched diamond hardened status quo that they were sent to Congress to protect and practice every single day.
Senator Byron Dorgan is not to be included in that sorry group.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173310-has-the-u-s-been-playing-loose-with-oil-market-data?source=feed#comment-760214 760214 Your plan may not be perfect, but it is better than most, and it would be a start in a better direction.
There are too many people in our government too much afraid of offending the present true rulers of the world , the Saudi Royal family, to get started and get something done.
Of course, they are aided and abetted , directly and indirectly by powerful domestic and world oil interests, so they have plenty of help.

Until our "leaders" get off the dime and start implementing good ideas like yours and a few others, we remain at the mercy of the same people that destroyed the World Trade Towers, and whose countrymen were protected by the Bush administration and hastily flown out of our country even before they could be questioned.

Do you know of any other group in the world that is afforded this treatment by our government?

Personally, I am tired and outraged at being the unwilling subject of tyrants and dictators -------- ( even so , their country has some very good , benevolent and bright people which is usually the case) ------ because of a lack of planning and necessary action by my own countries elected representatives.]]> Sat, 14 Nov 2009 11:29:22 -0500 Your plan may not be perfect, but it is better than most, and it would be a start in a better direction.
There are too many people in our government too much afraid of offending the present true rulers of the world , the Saudi Royal family, to get started and get something done.
Of course, they are aided and abetted , directly and indirectly by powerful domestic and world oil interests, so they have plenty of help.

Until our "leaders" get off the dime and start implementing good ideas like yours and a few others, we remain at the mercy of the same people that destroyed the World Trade Towers, and whose countrymen were protected by the Bush administration and hastily flown out of our country even before they could be questioned.

Do you know of any other group in the world that is afforded this treatment by our government?

Personally, I am tired and outraged at being the unwilling subject of tyrants and dictators -------- ( even so , their country has some very good , benevolent and bright people which is usually the case) ------ because of a lack of planning and necessary action by my own countries elected representatives.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173021-10-years-after-glass-steagall?source=feed#comment-760008 760008 Thank you also for your comment , and I am equally glad to know that others try to add some facts and insight to many single points of data and statements made without support and essential clarification.
We are all guilty of this from time to time , (I am much more than I wish or intend) , but folks writing articles for public dissemination might try to be a little more supportive of their own statements with some background facts on their chosen topic.
In that context, I would also like to add some further light on my prior comment:
The vote count that I provided was prior to the joint committee work that led to the final vote count that was TOTALLY VETO PROOF. I placed emphasis on that prior vote because it massively influenced the final vote.
After the initial vote count, the handwriting for ultimate passage was on the wall because the "people had spoken thru their elected representatives" and this swayed many congresspersons to change their vote to/for Repeal, for that and a variety of different reasons.
(An aside: Does anyone really think that the majority of the American people wanted Glass Steagall repealed?)
This led to the final Totally VETO PROOF VOTE COUNT of : Senate 90 -8 and House 362-57.
In my prior comment , I meant to say that The repeal was supported "by" GHW
Bush and millions of dollars of lobbying money, (same as was done with the passage of NAFTA ).]]> Sat, 14 Nov 2009 07:18:06 -0500 Thank you also for your comment , and I am equally glad to know that others try to add some facts and insight to many single points of data and statements made without support and essential clarification.
We are all guilty of this from time to time , (I am much more than I wish or intend) , but folks writing articles for public dissemination might try to be a little more supportive of their own statements with some background facts on their chosen topic.
In that context, I would also like to add some further light on my prior comment:
The vote count that I provided was prior to the joint committee work that led to the final vote count that was TOTALLY VETO PROOF. I placed emphasis on that prior vote because it massively influenced the final vote.
After the initial vote count, the handwriting for ultimate passage was on the wall because the "people had spoken thru their elected representatives" and this swayed many congresspersons to change their vote to/for Repeal, for that and a variety of different reasons.
(An aside: Does anyone really think that the majority of the American people wanted Glass Steagall repealed?)
This led to the final Totally VETO PROOF VOTE COUNT of : Senate 90 -8 and House 362-57.
In my prior comment , I meant to say that The repeal was supported "by" GHW
Bush and millions of dollars of lobbying money, (same as was done with the passage of NAFTA ).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173021-10-years-after-glass-steagall?source=feed#comment-758886 758886 The Senate provided more than enough support to repeal with a 54 Yea - 44 Nay vote count.
Of the 54 Yea votes to repeal, 53 were Republican.
The Senate Bill S. 900 was initiated by three Republicans : Gramm- Leach - Bliley.
Glass Steagall Repeal was sought by the Republicans for decades, supported GHW Bush and millions of dollars of lobbying money. They had made many attempts (approx 12) before the final passage.
The repeal of Glass Steagall was not initiated or lobbied for by Bill Clinton.
Your article's leading statement implies that this was his idea and that he somehow forced it thru Congress and was delighted to sign it.
Even a casual review of the vote count dominated by the Republicans controlling the Congress should a provide a different perspective on the repeal of Glass Steagall than the one you implied by a single leading statement. ]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 12:19:34 -0500 The Senate provided more than enough support to repeal with a 54 Yea - 44 Nay vote count.
Of the 54 Yea votes to repeal, 53 were Republican.
The Senate Bill S. 900 was initiated by three Republicans : Gramm- Leach - Bliley.
Glass Steagall Repeal was sought by the Republicans for decades, supported GHW Bush and millions of dollars of lobbying money. They had made many attempts (approx 12) before the final passage.
The repeal of Glass Steagall was not initiated or lobbied for by Bill Clinton.
Your article's leading statement implies that this was his idea and that he somehow forced it thru Congress and was delighted to sign it.
Even a casual review of the vote count dominated by the Republicans controlling the Congress should a provide a different perspective on the repeal of Glass Steagall than the one you implied by a single leading statement. ]]>