SeekingTruth

Market Recovery: 200 Days On

My previous comment should have said:
------- unless you can "foresee" (instead of "see") a continuous and contiguous series of down days -------
which my own mind was already thinking "foresee" i.e. accurately anticipate, but later realized others may not have interpreted my word "see" as intended.
Also, the insurance you pay by shorting may be worth it to you for the peace of mind, etc. even though you have paid a fee for it ---- your choice either way, and mine , as always.

Market Recovery: 200 Days On

Have to agree that too early shorting is hazardous to your wealth as a flat or slightly up market and the theta time decay will destroy the value of your put buy options, and only slight upward movements will crush the short ETF's due to the negative compounding effects.
The ultra short ETF's can be even worse than that if the market just gyrates up and down a little for the negative compounding to do its stealthy and wicked damage.
We are in a strong season of the market which might be one of the few things holding it up, and it is tempting to short, but unless you can see a continuous and contiguous series of down days in your chosen short then it will be hard to insure your portfolio properly and much harder to actually make money.
That's why your judgment, timing in and out, and luck have to be just right to make it work.
Can be done but it is much harder than it looks.

Ways-to-Play Rising Short Rate

Can't fault your logic or assumptions, and at least you have given us some ideas to consider. Thanks.

Option Skew as a Trading Signal

Interesting, and would like to learn more also.
What method did you use to short the S&P 500 and VIX?
What indicators (or other knowledge) did you use to justify?
When did you initiate the shorts?
Looking forward to your "new study for another day".
Thanks for a good and promising article.

ETFs Yielding Over 3% with Size and Liquidity

Great work, Richard.
The old conundrum always presents itself :
Does one go for growth/value which usually have a higher total return or with good dividend paying selections.
You certainly have helped tremendously with the dividend part of that question.
One strategy is to use the dividend selections as the virtual cash part of the portfolio and keep a very close eye on it , i.e . brook little downside and go to pure cash in a hurry if that is the proxy being used .
Of course if your risk tolerance is higher then can add more at a better price, or just tolerate a little more downside depending on conditions.
It's always tricky to me but maybe I complicate things too much.
Thanks for another great article.

Late December: The Best Time of Year for Stocks

Good info and chart.
Buy in Feb. , late June, early Oct., has been my observations over the years which your chart basically confirms.
This year was highly distorted by the huge pre March sell off.
Suspect things will settle down to a more normal pattern for awhile, but as always with the stock market --- no guarantees. Thanks.

U.S. Equities Valuation Analysis - Duck, Happy Suckers

Easy to see and agree that the risk -reward factors are not that favorable in 2010.
I don't see how anyone could expect the broad market to do anything except a meandering, torpid and desultory pattern in 2010, with of course the temporary bouts of optimism - pessimism that usually happens.
Knowing this, the power brokers will probably generate one last upsurge to seize what little upside that remains.
Meanwhile , it remains highly vulnerable to event risk at these and higher levels.
Shorting , while really tempting, still too risky for most ordinary investors, but buying optimism, at a minimum, should be curbed with this article's outlook as a reference.
Thanks for a solid P/E valuation review including the great references and guidelines.

Another Reason Why America's Glory Days Are Over

Most Republic's have or have had dictators, the Republic of China, the Republic of Russia, the Republic of Libya, etc.
Rome also vacillated between a Republic and Dictatorship , which illustrates that a pure Republic assumes a position only one half step from a full dictatorship.
For those that favor a pure Republic, they should stop telling our soldiers that they are fighting for a Democracy, and tell them the truth, that they are fighting for Republicanism.
I'll believe it only when I see and hear it.

Expect Meager Returns in Overvalued Market - John Hussman

John Hussman , and the author, has done us a genuine service in helping us stay abreast of the risk -reward aspect of the US stock market.
If there was any good news in his report, I could not find it.
I can't find fault with John's analysis or warning flags, and I see things basically the same way.
The only thing is that he hasn't mastered a way to harness the capital returns that the market has offered to investor's in this deeply oversold rebound rally.
Still, his views and info provide us with as good of a market health and sanity checkup as one will find.
Overall, his summary suggests that the market should/might swoon and slide sometime in 2010.
The big question is , how steep will be the slope of the slide?
A slow one will disappoint put buyers, and it could be a slow one, pure shorts are too risky for most investors, so it looks like a short ETF fund might be the better choice if any hedging is appropriate for one's situation.

Understanding Chinese Statistical Data: The Devil Is in the Details

Did someone once say "inscrutable"?
A country so large , complex, and filled with so many myriad conflicts and contradictions would challenge the best minds in the world to describe accurately.
Any insight that can be added is worth something , and I think that the author did just fine shedding a little light on the subject.

Emerging Market ETF Faces Big Bearish Bet

Difficult to assess based on what "might" happen, but agree that your info and Djvu info adds to the caution (thanks to both) as many of the emerging markets haven't done much since mid Oct. and have shown several weak days on price and volume lately.
Valuations getting stretched on many also , an old fashioned concept.
Dollar strength and another Dubai type incident could get their ball rolling downhill.

Credit Suisse Ranks the 20 'Riskiest' Countries

Would you consider following up with the 20 "least risky" countries?

Predicting a Downturn Based on the Put to Call Ratio

Bill,
Be sure to forewarn us when the Put/Call ratio DOES point to a correction ( and any other of your indicators also). Thanks.

Charting What's Next for Crude Oil Prices

Have to agree with most of first commenter's (G.L. Turner) view of oil - a very good synopsis.

It has become far too easy for the named and other oil speculators to trade in sync with the desires of OPEC and their Saudi leaders.
If we depended on what the Nat Gas producers wanted , I can assure you that Nat Gas prices would be a great deal higher.
Similarly, we should always be aware of their desires and wishes in the oil industry, but not let that be the only factor in our analysis, important as it is.

Shanghai Index Bubble…Or Not?

Andrew, 10-4 . Thanks.