The VIX, Interpolation And The Roll [View article]
Bill, I have a ways to go for getting a complete handle on all the VIX nuances and this helps. Was wondering if there is some sort of an options index based on an ARMS (TRIN) type methodology but for puts and calls that can be used in conjunction with the VIX, etc. for shedding more true light on where the sentiment actually lies? Like I said, I've got a ways to go, but this kind of info would help.
A hugely perceptive and impressive article. Thanks!
I cannot and will never accept nor will ever fail to observe and acknowledge that our institutions are cooperative and duplicit in the crimes committed against the American people.
Our Dept. of (in)Justice has proven to be no exception, once again and as always.
The majority of Americans do not have the ability, temperament, intelligence, priority set, or awareness to a sufficient degree necessary to prevent the wholesale rape and plunder of our public treasure ,power, future well being, and "potential" prosperity . Hence, the plunder marches forward in perpetuity, until it can march no more, ultimately collapsing in the mire of its own greed and misdeeds, and us along with it.
What you see is what you get, but what you don't yet see shall be a great deal worse.
Are Equity Markets Setting Up For A Meaningful Correction? [View article]
If one must buy something, I can't fault your selections, although I am buying nothing more at these levels and I am holding only core selections looking for the best perceived time to hedge them aggressively. All of those 89 million unemployed must eat and buy clothes , medicine , etc. even if it is with food stamps and the help of their relatives and friends. If I miss the mark, at least I have my cash from profits, and dividends from my core to keep me warm and "ready" if and when appropriate.
One might consider taking all the original investment money out of the market plus some profit margin , say 10 to 12% CAGR and let the rest ride. Even so, I would hedge the amount left at risk. Better investment levels are coming - if you still have the nerve.
Among several reasons that the FED has rates so low is that, otherwise, all the marginal corporations like JC Penney and Best Buy , Dell, etc. will fail and drag the economy and the banks down with them. As long as so many large marginal Corporations are struggling, and people are unemployed at a high rate, the interest rates will be low, resulting in all corporations being better off than they otherwise would be, profitable or not, and the markets will have upward pressure applied. The net result is that this particular severe rain storm has tended to lift all boats, even though a few may sink if tethered to the dock. This does not mean that low rates will save the markets but it is constructive and supportive, without which we would be in an absolute depression.
One Blogger's Word Association For Crony Capitalism [View article]
The aftermath of 9/11 proved to me that there is no amount of fraud and corruption that is too much for the majority of the American public to accept, overlook, ignore, and forget about.
The response guaranteed future larceny and abuse on a grand scale. The first installment on that guarantee has occurred.
The financial melt down is but the first in a long series of similar events that shall occur one after the other until it totally breaks us down and throws us into a long period of uncontrollable chaos. This means that we shall be exploited and robbed to the max in perpetuity until that breaking point is reached.
The perfection of the power flow of wealth upward and a meager trickle down to the peasants below is a work of art without economic or political equal. There is no going back now that so many successful precedents have been set, and the predators know that they have ultimate control to do whatever they want and get paid massively for doing it. What's to stop them? Certainly not the American people.
To The Moon Tuesday: Damn The Torpedoes! [View article]
"GUF" leads to "WOW!":
So we have the "Great Uncertainty Factor (GUF)" that is universally used by the media to so easily explain most market difficulties and downdrafts, and serves to prep and motivate us to participate in and climb the great "Wall of Worry (WOW!)". So all we need is strong periodic applications of "GUF" so we can all enjoy more good "WOW" that is programmed to follow - and, to prove it once again, here is the WOW for all to see and enjoy and profit by - simple, straight forward and makes perfect sense. It works so beautifully, what better guidelines could we ever expect or need from our great Wall Street controlled MSM? After all, the proof is in the WOWing, then more GUF will take its turn again- what goes around comes around.
Assessing The Timing Of The Next Cyclical Bear In Stocks [View instapost]
Once again, things are shaky the world over. Most countries are hanging on by their fingernails, and it won't take much for some, if not most to lose their grip. It will be great good fortune indeed to avoid another world recession within the next very few years. Too many people and too few ideas and ability to keep them employed , housed, and fed.
Something big is going to happen, and our ability to cope will be severely tested again.
World travelers who get caught in the wrong place at the wrong time will not be pleased - same for investors. Thanks for sharing your analysis, however, the problems are much greater than can be illustrated by wave patterns on a chart.
John, The market will break one way or the other out of the channel when the Trilateral cartel of Wall Street, The FED, and Washington DC politicians (and of course their backer /handlers) decide they want it to do so. The second major reason is some exogenous event that even they can't control. The rest is mostly BS.
How Share Repurchases Manipulate Fundamental Ratios [View article]
All said and done, I think share buybacks would be better accepted if in a priority based system:
Have R&D needs been fully met? Have the best employees been acquired and fully developed? Has innovation been adequately rewarded? Has the ongoing quality and reliability of our products and services been fully optimized and achieved? Is our market research and implementation at its highest level? Are employees being properly compensated? Have employee benefits been properly applied to retain valuable personnel? Is the cost of debt low and easily issued? If all things of this and similar nature have been adequately accomplished, then buy back some shares if they are undervalued.
Comparison Of Valuation And Expectations For Apple, Microsoft And Google [View article]
Richard, Impressive array of data and info and your usual great job presenting it. This quality of solid data always welcome. Thanks.
Expectations (and probable realization) for improvements in gross sales and income are the trump cards that we have to guess about, and the ever growing charge of the competition, esp. in Apple's case.
I am willing to be very patient, and watchful, in all cases presented.
How Share Repurchases Manipulate Fundamental Ratios [View article]
Thanks Kevin, For some reason I had "gross" revenues in my mind instead of "revenues per share". As an aside, checking most recent changes in gross revenue and gross income would also help evaluate current value without being biased by share buyback, along with checking (wringing out) all the other metrics of course. Thanks for your crisp response and good example. Question, would you add back existing treasury stock into any of the ratios, and if so how and why?
How Share Repurchases Manipulate Fundamental Ratios [View article]
Could you show your math for reducing the Price to Sales ratio after stock buy back? Apparently it is valid because all of the P/S ratios went down. I just would like to see the method used to calculate the reduction.
All the others I am well familiar with and have been for a long time.
Thanks for a good article and for alerting a lot of people to all the misleading effects (distortions and skew) of the buy-back strategies. Somehow , somewhere, this info should be made standard and readily available by anyone and everyone when reporting the ratios for buy/sell analysis.
If one examines the ARMS index very closely, it would be seen that it typically tells you very little in time to take appropriate action, although sometimes it does do its job well. One must treat this indicator very carefully like dynamite, which in the hands of an expert can be highly useful, but in the hands of the casual user can be quite disastrous.
Approaching A Major Inflection Point In The QE3 Trade [View article]
A fine history review that I will place with all my marked up charts on QE and the stock market together. Thanks.
The VIX, Interpolation And The Roll [View article]
I have a ways to go for getting a complete handle on all the VIX nuances and this helps.
Was wondering if there is some sort of an options index based on an ARMS (TRIN) type methodology but for puts and calls that can be used in conjunction with the VIX, etc. for shedding more true light on where the sentiment actually lies?
Like I said, I've got a ways to go, but this kind of info would help.
Give In To The Dark Side [View article]
I cannot and will never accept nor will ever fail to observe and acknowledge that our institutions are cooperative and duplicit in the crimes committed against the American people.
Our Dept. of (in)Justice has proven to be no exception, once again and as always.
The majority of Americans do not have the ability, temperament, intelligence, priority set, or awareness to a sufficient degree necessary to prevent the wholesale rape and plunder of our public treasure ,power, future well being, and "potential" prosperity .
Hence, the plunder marches forward in perpetuity, until it can march no more, ultimately collapsing in the mire of its own greed and misdeeds, and us along with it.
What you see is what you get, but what you don't yet see shall be a great deal worse.
Are Equity Markets Setting Up For A Meaningful Correction? [View article]
All of those 89 million unemployed must eat and buy clothes , medicine , etc. even if it is with food stamps and the help of their relatives and friends.
If I miss the mark, at least I have my cash from profits, and dividends from my core to keep me warm and "ready" if and when appropriate.
Why The Market Keeps Going Up [View article]
Even so, I would hedge the amount left at risk.
Better investment levels are coming - if you still have the nerve.
Why The Market Keeps Going Up [View article]
As long as so many large marginal Corporations are struggling, and people are unemployed at a high rate, the interest rates will be low, resulting in all corporations being better off than they otherwise would be, profitable or not, and the markets will have upward pressure applied.
The net result is that this particular severe rain storm has tended to lift all boats, even though a few may sink if tethered to the dock.
This does not mean that low rates will save the markets but it is constructive and supportive, without which we would be in an absolute depression.
One Blogger's Word Association For Crony Capitalism [View article]
The response guaranteed future larceny and abuse on a grand scale. The first installment on that guarantee has occurred.
The financial melt down is but the first in a long series of similar events that shall occur one after the other until it totally breaks us down and throws us into a long period of uncontrollable chaos.
This means that we shall be exploited and robbed to the max in perpetuity until that breaking point is reached.
The perfection of the power flow of wealth upward and a meager trickle down to the peasants below is a work of art without economic or political equal.
There is no going back now that so many successful precedents have been set, and the predators know that they have ultimate control to do whatever they want and get paid massively for doing it.
What's to stop them?
Certainly not the American people.
To The Moon Tuesday: Damn The Torpedoes! [View article]
So we have the "Great Uncertainty Factor (GUF)" that is universally used by the media to so easily explain most market difficulties and downdrafts, and serves to prep and motivate us to participate in and climb the great "Wall of Worry (WOW!)".
So all we need is strong periodic applications of "GUF" so we can all enjoy more good "WOW" that is programmed to follow - and, to prove it once again, here is the WOW for all to see and enjoy and profit by - simple, straight forward and makes perfect sense.
It works so beautifully, what better guidelines could we ever expect or need from our great Wall Street controlled MSM?
After all, the proof is in the WOWing, then more GUF will take its turn again- what goes around comes around.
Assessing The Timing Of The Next Cyclical Bear In Stocks [View instapost]
Most countries are hanging on by their fingernails, and it won't take much for some, if not most to lose their grip.
It will be great good fortune indeed to avoid another world recession within the next very few years.
Too many people and too few ideas and ability to keep them employed , housed, and fed.
Something big is going to happen, and our ability to cope will be severely tested again.
World travelers who get caught in the wrong
place at the wrong time will not be pleased - same for investors.
Thanks for sharing your analysis, however, the problems are much greater than can be illustrated by wave patterns on a chart.
A New Channel For Stocks [View instapost]
The market will break one way or the other out of the channel when the Trilateral cartel of Wall Street, The FED, and Washington DC politicians (and of course their backer /handlers) decide they want it to do so.
The second major reason is some exogenous event that even they can't control.
The rest is mostly BS.
How Share Repurchases Manipulate Fundamental Ratios [View article]
Have R&D needs been fully met?
Have the best employees been acquired and fully developed?
Has innovation been adequately rewarded?
Has the ongoing quality and reliability of our products and services been fully optimized and achieved?
Is our market research and implementation at its highest level?
Are employees being properly compensated?
Have employee benefits been properly applied to retain valuable personnel?
Is the cost of debt low and easily issued?
If all things of this and similar nature have been adequately accomplished, then buy back some shares if they are undervalued.
Comparison Of Valuation And Expectations For Apple, Microsoft And Google [View article]
Impressive array of data and info and your usual great job presenting it. This quality of solid data always welcome. Thanks.
Expectations (and probable realization) for improvements in gross sales and income are the trump cards that we have to guess about, and the ever growing charge of the competition, esp. in Apple's case.
I am willing to be very patient, and watchful, in all cases presented.
How Share Repurchases Manipulate Fundamental Ratios [View article]
For some reason I had "gross" revenues in my mind instead of "revenues per share".
As an aside, checking most recent changes in gross revenue and gross income would also help evaluate current value without being biased by share buyback, along with checking (wringing out) all the other metrics of course.
Thanks for your crisp response and good example.
Question, would you add back existing treasury stock into any of the ratios, and if so how and why?
How Share Repurchases Manipulate Fundamental Ratios [View article]
Apparently it is valid because all of the P/S ratios went down. I just would like to see the method used to calculate the reduction.
All the others I am well familiar with and have been for a long time.
Thanks for a good article and for alerting a lot of people to all the misleading effects (distortions and skew) of the buy-back strategies.
Somehow , somewhere, this info should be made standard and readily available by anyone and everyone when reporting the ratios for buy/sell analysis.
Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
sometimes it does do its job well.
One must treat this indicator very carefully like dynamite, which in the hands of an expert can be highly useful, but in the hands of the casual user can be quite disastrous.