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  • Jobs Data Great For ETFs, Grisly For The Economy [View article]
    Gordon, You see this hoax much the same as I do.
    The overall state of the economy, even with ZIRP does not justify the rich valuations that we see today. We would have to be at least 25% lower on prices to be fairly priced in my view, but most of the power brokers claim it is fairly priced at current levels. I don't buy it.
    Yes the debt exchange and arbitrage does help the corporations, but it has been over marketed/touted in my book.
    Buying back stock with cheap borrowed money is not all bad as it has a place to be sure, but when it is used as a substitute for economic growth and investment , it loses all it's allure for me.
    The jobs situation continues to show no real improvement even with some of the categories looking less bad. The job participation numbers are frightening, and best reflects the "true story". Pray that the public does not wake up because we are way past the tipping point for the current middle class generation to have a prayer.
    Thanks for a good report.
    Oct 3, 2014. 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Norfolk Southern Looks Overvalued [View article]
    Daniel, Thanks for a fine article and I agree with your fundamental valuation approach.
    A recent SA article by Arie Goren quoted NSC Price to Free Cash Flow as 75.55.
    Can you corroborate/verify this number?
    If this is a valid number, what actually caused it to be so high?
    I would appreciate anything you might add or update. Many Thanks.
    Oct 1, 2014. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best S&P 500 Dividend Stocks According To A Winning Ranking System: Norfolk Southern [View article]
    Arie, Thanks for the follow up.
    Oct 1, 2014. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best S&P 500 Dividend Stocks According To A Winning Ranking System: Norfolk Southern [View article]
    Should your chart possibly have read "EV" to Free Cash Flow instead of "Price" to Free Cash Flow? This , of course, would explain the high number. Just asking - Thanks.
    Sep 30, 2014. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best S&P 500 Dividend Stocks According To A Winning Ranking System: Norfolk Southern [View article]
    With all the other values sound, would expect Price to Free Cash Flow ratio to be a much lower number. Would the author care to discuss this? Thanks for a fine article.
    Sep 30, 2014. 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Outlook - Warning Alarm Or Healthy Pullback? [View article]
    Price. Good Work. Thanks.
    Sep 30, 2014. 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • About That Friday Bounce [View article]
    Eric: Fine article and your commentary is superb.
    This also does not appear to me to be a time to "Buy Low". Thanks.
    Sep 29, 2014. 07:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Outlook - Bleak! Part 2 [View article]
    Our problems are not primarily financial.
    The larger problem is that we have lost the essence of our democracy.
    The people in Hong Kong are demonstrating because they want to select their own candidates instead of the establishment doing it for them.
    Who selects the candidates in America?
    If you don't think it is the establishment, please explain to me who it really is and I will be glad to consider your argument.
    The second major problem is that the establishment has lost all concern or fear of justice being applied to them in a fair and honest way.
    They have demonstrated that they can get away with anything, and any form of fraud or abuse and they will not be held to account for anything.
    This is a core issue and permeates the way the entire society behaves.
    It makes some despair and give up, it makes others rebel, and sadly , it makes some emulate the misdeeds wherever possible in order to participate and profit in the same type of shady operations.
    The result is that no one can trust any one else about a single thing where their well being is concerned.
    Character, attitude, behavior, performance, honesty and fairness must be restored to our system and society before anything else will work.
    How to start:
    Hold crooks accountable for crookedness and make them serve time for it. Mere fines are not enough.
    Seek out and promote the fineness people in our society and help them get elected with public funds after highly selective requirements and restrictions are applied, while continuing to let anyone run on their own if they wish. Example: The presumed supported candidates must make their tax returns public, they must possess a keen knowledge of the Constitution, and discuss all aspects of it intelligently and knowledgeably, etc.
    Cease allowing the power elitists and Supreme Court to elect/appoint our leaders.
    Make the tax system as fair as possible, and revise our tax structure to prevent corporations from fleeing their tax liabilities by moving abroad.
    This is just a start, and I welcome hearing all other ideas..
    Sep 29, 2014. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    DrewDunklin: I'm with you. All well stated comments.
    The only possible exception is that I think that the FED is a monster that should never have been allowed to form and seize the disproportionate power with the ability to so extremely misuse and abuse it with little accountability,i.e. more wealth for the wealthy, more poverty for the poor, after all the poor can and should take care of themselves.
    Thanks for your excellent commentary.
    Sep 20, 2014. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst Mid Cap Value Style ETFs, Mutual Funds, And Key Holdings [View article]
    Thanks again for your solid and consistent work with so little credit.
    Sep 20, 2014. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Staples Sector [View article]
    Good work again. Thanks.
    Aug 29, 2014. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Important Financial Statement When Selecting Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
    All the effects and nuances of cash flow can never be discussed enough, and you have presented an excellent overall solid approach.
    One must always remember however that it (cash flow) is a single snapshot of cash at a frozen point in time.
    To help counter this, for instance, though I have never seen it discussed, I always take a look at how well net discretionary free cash flow covers accounts payable, and other short term pending commitments, and how much of the depreciated amount has been reinvested in plant and equipment,etc.
    Aug 12, 2014. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want To Reduce Missteps? Become A 2-Faced Investor [View article]
    Trying to apply a rational thought process to a too often irrational domain like the stock market is like trying to reason with an unreasonable person or argue for fairness with someone with no moral character.
    Your chances for success are largely unpredictable, and too often thoroughly negative.
    It "mostly" boils down to guts and luck, plus some knowlege of probably what NOT to do as much as what to do.
    This is not at all true for the insiders and the power brokers, both the legal and illegal variety. They have all the edge that they need to "make it happen" in most cases.
    Yes there is usually someone to take the other side of the trade, but they have millions and billions and most of us have somewhat less.
    Doesn't mean we can't play along and also do very well in some periods, but it's a stacked deck from top to bottom, and some people like Phil Davis know this very well and can make it work anyway, if one becomes single minded and almost obsessed about it.
    Most of us are not wired that way, hence we struggle.
    My view is that the market would be much lower but much more stable and investable if it were not rigged from top to bottom as I believe it definitely is in almost every way imaginable, starting with the FED, and sideways and down from there.
    Not looking for anyone to agree with me , and I am not trying to convince anyone of anything.
    It's your own view that counts and so just play it as you see it.
    May 14, 2014. 09:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Analyze Earnings Reports [View article]
    Good points all.
    Always glad to hear more inputs on free cash flow.
    Would be nice if you included some guidelines and ratios about the quality of the free cash flow, i.e. what are the almost immediate demands on it such as the amount of accounts payable?
    What other demands/options are lurking , like new CAPEX in the quarter, year, etc.?
    What discretionary actions are owners likely to do with the cash, such as acquisitions , stock buybacks, increase dividends, pay off debt, make loans, etc.?
    Just some quick off the cuff thoughts.
    PS: Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is often recommended to evaluate. Is this also a no-no in your book? If so , what would you substitute for EBITDA --- i.e. use FCF?
    Apr 25, 2014. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Case Of 'Risk Exhaustion'? [View article]
    A lot of "value" stocks are no great shakes either, as in prior times they would be considered growth stocks at today's valuations, and metrics.
    Nice charts and narrative, and the VIX chart esp. nice. Thanks.
    Apr 15, 2014. 05:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment