j-dub

El Erian: We're Hostages to the 'V'-Shaped Recovery Model

If fantasy Land envelops the Real World, does the Real World exist?
Many salesmen on Wall Street are hoping it does not. The government really is a slave to the banks as they are complicit in this giant hoax. They will spend our grandkids money, say that their saving us from disaster, and tell us us that our economy is recovering because of stabilizing spending. RIGHT!!!

The main street media then spews out garbage in an insipid attempt to prove the Real World is obsolete. As if Barack Obama's "change" doesn't scare the hell out of any small business owner-see, that's in the Real World and if you recall from the previous pargraph, that doesn't exist.

I'll be first EVER to say it:
"This time is different."

You heard it here first on SA

This Market Acts Strange and Is Strange

Even as the market tried its darndest to celebrate an attempted terrorist attack within the United States border, the cracks are beginning to show.
I believe that even if the nasdaq were to march higher than 2295(60-40) negative divergence will begin to rear its ugly head. For anyone to suggest that getting in the market at these levels without a ten year time horizon simply doesn't makes a lick of sense.
On tv today, channel...........let's say CNBS (so as to keep the particular channel anonymous), in almost the same breath some schmuck recommended to the poor fools watching to buy AMZN and remarked how important the show was to individual investors who need to be told what individual stocks to buy. Right now the market is "greater fool theory" operating like my thirty year old eyes have never seen.

I personally think the party is winding down.

Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism for the Major Indexes

Even as the market tried its darndest to celebrate an attempted terrorist attack within the United States border, the cracks are beginning to show.
I believe that even if the nasdaq were to march higher than 2295(60-40) negative divergence will begin to rear its ugly head. For anyone to suggest that getting in the market at these levels without a ten year time horizon simply doesn't makes a lick of sense.
On tv today, channel...........let's say CNBS (so as to keep the identity private), in almost the same breath some schmuck recommended to the poor fools watching to buy AMZN and remarked how important the show was to individual investors who need to be told what individual stocks to buy. Right now the market is "greater fool theory" operating like my thirty year old eyes have never seen.

California Home Prices: Nice to See Positive Numbers

Belief system?
I don't buy it but nice try......................
HOWEVER, if this "system" says housing is far from bottoming in Cali and includes numbers such as unprecedented government intervention by way of tax credits, extraordinary bank intervention by way of shadow inventory and forclosure delay, and remarkable federal reserve intervention by keeping rates articificially low, then call me Pope j-dub.
On Dec 27 11:53 AM Tim Plaehn wrote:

> I know it is tough when the actual numbers do not conform to your
> belief system. Home prices in California have been increasing since
> March 2009 and it appears more and more unlikely there will be another
> big drop in price

New Homes Report Reveals Old Problems with Government Statistics

I don't know why they didn't just borrow the guy who "makes up" the jobs numbers every month. That guy is a superstar.
C'mon guys, like any great sports team in a jam, ya gotta go with the guy that brought you there-your ace.
That guy would have turned the MSM frown upside down and in a hurry.

Merry Christmas, Fannie and Freddie: Treasury Support Increased

I guess you missed the second part of advice where everything will solve itself and to just "Relax"..................

Better?
Me neither


On Dec 26 01:48 PM apberusdisvet wrote:

> If we can survive as a sovereign nation (unfortunately, I have my
> doubts), we are in for at least 10-15 years of stagnation. Next year,
> we'll get the first indication that our paper is worth essentially,
> far less than we ever would have imagined. The deficit amounts are
> non-sustainable. Obama will soon guarantee unfunded government union
> pension guarantees, now totally $99 Trillion nationwide. All of us
> are going to pay for the coming state bankruptcies; CA MI, NY, etc.
> Every single piece of legislation will take money from those who
> work to pay for entitlements for those who don't, can't, or who are
> illegal. One poster above thinks that 2012 will show an uptick. I
> would love to think he's right; unfortunately, I know better.

Fannie / Freddie - What Does Treasury Know?

I believe that a third party will emerge if not by next year, then DEFINITELY by 2012. This party, I am guessing, will be backed by the same people that will challenge the constitutionality of the health care reform bill. The Republicans better realize that they HAVE to get on board if they don't want to lose a good portion of their current base.


On Dec 25 05:00 PM Alan Young wrote:

> @j-dub: what do you think an election is going to accomplish? Can
> you get rid of the party that bailed out the FREak brothers in 2008
> AND the party that is keeping them afloat in 2009? And even if you
> could, what would you replace them with?
>
> On Dec 25 09:52 AM j-dub wrote:

Fannie / Freddie - What Does Treasury Know?

There is not a .00000000000000000001% chance the black hole that is Freddie and Fannie will have anything marked anywhere near the vicinity of reality.

This is not my America and it pains me to say it might never be again. I do however look foward to the 2010 elections.


On Dec 25 09:31 AM sceptical wrote:

> Question: do FNM/FRE mortgages have to be "marked to the market"
> ? If so, what happens to the balance sheets of FNM/FRE when interest
> rates start to rise ?

California Asks Rest of Nation's Taxpayers to Help Pay for Its Unbalanced Budget

"I write this with no offense to readers in the public sector - this is just an untenable situation. It's a ponzi scheme, plain and simple - some form of reality check must happen at the public level; we cannot run 2 parallel America's; one open to global wage arbitrage, evaporated pensions, et al and another completely protected from such realities."


None taken, as it is important for EVERYONE in America to understand what is happening. My fellow health care workers need the awakening, yet have no time as the public sector teet suckling is like an electric blanket on a cold winter's night. It is all enveloping until one fails to realize how cold it is for those without an electric blanket. The electric blanket becomes the norm while the cold that most deal with becomes the foreign. At some point your electric blanket is routine so as to make the cold a distant memory.
The blanket become one with the person until they don't even realize that they are constantly covered in it and are surprised, even annoyed as to all the "freezing" talk by everyone else Good luck trying to steal someone's blanket when they rely on it so extensively. One problem is when the comfortable one starts to ignore that there are a lot of cold people out there.

Could federal bailouts of states lead to state successions from states such as Texas or is that possiblilty an impossibility?

New Data Casts Doubts on Housing Recovery

May I make a request?
Please recommend this post if you, as an SA reader, feel the two words housing and bottom should not be allowed together in the same title until, oooooooooooooohhhh, let's say April 2011.

You can't have a recovery until you bottom and (sorry folks) we are not even close to bottoming with interest rates at 5%.

Financial Conditions: Back to Normal

V shaped recovery? I think it is more prudent to.......................
wait a second!!!!
Hat tip to Mark Perry?

I thought you WERE Mark Perry!!

Q3 GDP Revised Lower Again - But Irrational Markets Don't Care

Some new Wall Street concepts fresh out of the 2010 pumpers handbook:

Backward looking:
1)jobs and income
2)the death of the U.S. consumer
3)real fake GDP

Foward looking
1)the DJIA
2) ever illusive pent up consumer demand
3)fake fake GDP

This is a bs, no volume rally that's gonna fill most, if not ALL gaps on the way back down GUARANTEED.

Existing Home Sales Boosted by Tax Credit Deadline that Wasn't

Existing Home Sales Boosted by Tax Credit Deadline that Wasn't.

Current extremely low sustainable mortgage rate that isn't.

FHA borrowers putting almost nothing down who shouldn't.

Present home prices stabilizing that aren't.

Buying real estate because your wonderful government is "giving" you free money? That buzzing sound you hear just might be a chainsaw hurtling towards earth and coincidentally right above your head.

Remember When the Market Rallied on 3.5% GDP?

Some new Wall Street concepts fresh out of the pumpers handbook:

Backward looking:
1)jobs and income
2)the death of the U.S. consumer
3)real fake GDP

Foward looking
1)the DJIA
2) ever illusive pent up consumer demand
3)fake fake GDP

Remember When the Market Rallied on 3.5% GDP?

backward looking:
1)jobs
2)income
3)real fake GDP