j-dub

Insider Sales Remain High Despite Rally

"Insider Sales Remain High Despite Rally."

How about:
"Insider Sales Remain High Because of Rally."

Executives tend to know an unjustifyed parabolic move in their company stock without an increase in end user demand in their product/service can be a perfect time to cash out.

Web Shoppers Expected to Rescue Retail

"Web Shoppers Expected to Rescue Retail."

REALLY?
Rescue retail profits, maybe.
CRE values and employment, not so much.

Let's not forget about the death blow the Amazon-Walmart price war will give the tiny, insignificant section of retail that ISN'T Amazon or Walmart.

Large Caps Could Lead the Market Much Higher

He is.
However, I am not going after him because he is talking fundamentals-pe's.
That's great and that is exactly who bizarro world is going after=SOMEONE WHO THINKS IN REAL WORLD TERMS.
If bizarro world can recruit enough that initially believe the market run is a hoax, the bizarro world takes over real world and real world becomes bizarro world.
Anyone who thinks in realistic terms should thinks thrice before drinking the kool-aid and that is the opinion I am offering.


On Oct 18 04:36 PM TLassen wrote:

> j-dub
> Think the author is expressing a very responsible view. Money managers
> and investors need to learn to think in terms of probabilities. Learned
> a long time ago, the market does what the market does. Don't fight
> the market, but make your investments and trade decisions with 'what-if'
> scenarios in mind.
> Thanks for good article AB. In agreement with you that low rates
> mean higher PE levels.

Large Caps Could Lead the Market Much Higher

Appreciate the timely reply.
See, this is the effect that the gunning of the stock market is trying to produce. Money managers wondering if they are mising an economic expansion (perpetually, always a quarter or two away)about to occur (even if the math says it can not). Thus producing the snowball effect of moving the markets even higher .

I wish you luck and, yes, large caps with world-wide exposure certtainly might producce the highest returns in the next five years.


On Oct 18 08:22 AM Alan Brochstein wrote:

> As I said, I am not convinced that the possibility to which I allude
> is a probability, but I will say that after 31 years of following
> the economy and stocks, I have learned that having a handle on the
> economy (or thinking one does) doesn't make predicting the direction
> of stocks as easy as one might hope. It's always a question of "what's
> priced in".
>
> I became bearish on the economy in the summer of 2007, so I wasn't
> late to the game. I had an "aha" moment rather late last year (around
> Thanksgiving) that "this time is different". I still cling to that
> notion - that the economic recovery is doomed because "we went over
> a cliff".
>
> Here we are almost a year later, and things are much better than
> most of us, including me, might have imagined at the time. Of course,
> the intervention and support of the government has had a massive
> role and has tainted the recovery, but, nonetheless, even crappy
> companies are refinancing their debt. Heck, we even have IPOs and
> M&A again.
>
> Mr. Wendling, who started his bearish website in 2007 rather than
> 2009, could be correct generally (a big rally followed by a worse
> bear market move). I guess that is what I fear not expect. It is
> certainly not consensus, even among the bulls. As long as rates remain
> low, liquidity high and the animal spirits alive, there is a risk
> that the scenario I described plays out.
>
> It is not clear to me that this is sustainable, or I would act accordingly.
> So, this article is truly an exercise in "what if". Dave Wrixon,
> nice try, but I don't earn "commissions", so that's clearly not my
> motivation either. I hope that my additional comments reinforce the
> point I was trying to make - this is not my expectation yet but rather
> a scenario that could play out and for which I will look for signs
> (does IBM break to an all-time high, for instance).

Large Caps Could Lead the Market Much Higher

"I continue to think that the economy will be challenged for quite some time and that the earnings estimates out there are too optimistic. But what if I am wrong?"

In actuality, you are not really doubting yourself, are you Mr. Brochstein?
You don't think, you know that this is the case. Reality , logic and reason force that economic case upon us as a country.
So what you are really thinking in your heart of hearts is:
"Can the market can continue to disconnect itself from reality or will reality catch up to it?"
You assume that reality must take hold, as it always eventually does. But maybe, JUST MAYBE, you think, "this time is different."

I have bet very heavilly this past week that it's not. No responsible money manager should seek out new models proving that it is.