j-dub

Large Caps Could Lead the Market Much Higher

He is.
However, I am not going after him because he is talking fundamentals-pe's.
That's great and that is exactly who bizarro world is going after=SOMEONE WHO THINKS IN REAL WORLD TERMS.
If bizarro world can recruit enough that initially believe the market run is a hoax, the bizarro world takes over real world and real world becomes bizarro world.
Anyone who thinks in realistic terms should thinks thrice before drinking the kool-aid and that is the opinion I am offering.


On Oct 18 04:36 PM TLassen wrote:

> j-dub
> Think the author is expressing a very responsible view. Money managers
> and investors need to learn to think in terms of probabilities. Learned
> a long time ago, the market does what the market does. Don't fight
> the market, but make your investments and trade decisions with 'what-if'
> scenarios in mind.
> Thanks for good article AB. In agreement with you that low rates
> mean higher PE levels.

Large Caps Could Lead the Market Much Higher

Appreciate the timely reply.
See, this is the effect that the gunning of the stock market is trying to produce. Money managers wondering if they are mising an economic expansion (perpetually, always a quarter or two away)about to occur (even if the math says it can not). Thus producing the snowball effect of moving the markets even higher .

I wish you luck and, yes, large caps with world-wide exposure certtainly might producce the highest returns in the next five years.


On Oct 18 08:22 AM Alan Brochstein wrote:

> As I said, I am not convinced that the possibility to which I allude
> is a probability, but I will say that after 31 years of following
> the economy and stocks, I have learned that having a handle on the
> economy (or thinking one does) doesn't make predicting the direction
> of stocks as easy as one might hope. It's always a question of "what's
> priced in".
>
> I became bearish on the economy in the summer of 2007, so I wasn't
> late to the game. I had an "aha" moment rather late last year (around
> Thanksgiving) that "this time is different". I still cling to that
> notion - that the economic recovery is doomed because "we went over
> a cliff".
>
> Here we are almost a year later, and things are much better than
> most of us, including me, might have imagined at the time. Of course,
> the intervention and support of the government has had a massive
> role and has tainted the recovery, but, nonetheless, even crappy
> companies are refinancing their debt. Heck, we even have IPOs and
> M&A again.
>
> Mr. Wendling, who started his bearish website in 2007 rather than
> 2009, could be correct generally (a big rally followed by a worse
> bear market move). I guess that is what I fear not expect. It is
> certainly not consensus, even among the bulls. As long as rates remain
> low, liquidity high and the animal spirits alive, there is a risk
> that the scenario I described plays out.
>
> It is not clear to me that this is sustainable, or I would act accordingly.
> So, this article is truly an exercise in "what if". Dave Wrixon,
> nice try, but I don't earn "commissions", so that's clearly not my
> motivation either. I hope that my additional comments reinforce the
> point I was trying to make - this is not my expectation yet but rather
> a scenario that could play out and for which I will look for signs
> (does IBM break to an all-time high, for instance).

Large Caps Could Lead the Market Much Higher

"I continue to think that the economy will be challenged for quite some time and that the earnings estimates out there are too optimistic. But what if I am wrong?"

In actuality, you are not really doubting yourself, are you Mr. Brochstein?
You don't think, you know that this is the case. Reality , logic and reason force that economic case upon us as a country.
So what you are really thinking in your heart of hearts is:
"Can the market can continue to disconnect itself from reality or will reality catch up to it?"
You assume that reality must take hold, as it always eventually does. But maybe, JUST MAYBE, you think, "this time is different."

I have bet very heavilly this past week that it's not. No responsible money manager should seek out new models proving that it is.

Are These Earnings Really Cause for Celebration?

Ten reasons not to be short the U.S. stock market
1)Stress tests conducted by our independently-minded government showed that "WITHOUT A DOUBT, BANKS DON'T NEED MORE THAN 75 BILLION." Not one cent more!!!

2)Housing showing signs of stabilizing and will bottom ANY HOUR NOW

3)Obama will create 5 million jobs(speaks for itself)

4)I saw a crowd of people hangind around by California Pizza Kitchen this Sunday that just two months ago WERE NOT THERE!!!

5)#4 shows that the consumer is showing confidence Ron Jeremy couldn't match-I mean, A WHOLE CROWD!!

6)The government knows what they're doing

7)The stimulus plan's money is making it's way through to poor institutions that unfortunately got caught up in this mess like banks and auto.

8)Market is rallying and we will see DOW 10k by the end of the year.

9)The recession is over- Today 9 guys on TV told me it was (just wish I still had my job, but no one gets everything they want. BUT AT LEAST THE RECESSION IS OVER)

10) Most of the crisis probably never even happened. Don't believe everyone you read or see on TV-trust me on this one.